Pressure to sack rate %

[MightyGiants]

This is an interesting stat to consider.   Like any stat, it's but one piece of a puzzle.   Still, it's worth considering.   Here is an article explaining why.

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/news/1-quarterback-scrambling-sack-negation-anthony-richardson

Here are those rates for the college QB prospects and a pretty good writeup from Twitter


Tanner James
@tjdissect
I think the PS2% conversation, as it pertains to this crop of QBs maybe a tick overstated despite being a valid concern.

Caleb Williams: 23.2%
Spencer Rattler: 21.0%
Jayden Daniels: 20.2%
Drake Maye: 19.5%
JJ McCarthy 16.8%
Jordan Travis: 14.0%
Sam Hartman: 11.4%
Bo Nix: 7.6%
Michael Penix: 7.6%

I have seen the discourse surrounding Maye and Daniels, but haven't seen it much about Williams. I understand it has a high transferability, but it is also isn't bulletproof-proof.

Bryce Young had the third lowest PS2% of all QBs drafted in 2023 at 12.5%(in college) and then proceeded to be the second most sacked QB in the NFL and have the highest PS2% in the entire league(minimum 300 snaps).   

On the flip side, Jordan Love shaved off a few points from college to pros(improved his PS2%) in his first year as a true starter. Josh Allen went from a top 12 pressure-to-sack ratio in the NFL in 2019(18.9) to the LOWEST in the NFL in 2023(10.0). Dak Prescott was at 23.4% in 2018 and finished with 18.3% in 2023.

Furthermore, there have been good to great QBs that have teetered around the top: Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, and Aaron Rodgers have infamously had higher pressure-to-sack ratios in their careers.

In Stafford's 44/17 season, his PS2% was over 20.0%. In the season the Rams won the SB it was 17.8%.

Aaron Rodgers's career PS2% is 20.5% and he is a four-time MVP, 1x Super Bowl Champion and first ballot HOFer. FWIW, his PS2% was 19.7% in 2010(the season he won the SB).

From 2010-2013, Tom Brady's PS2% was 17.7%. 2010 is one of the best seasons of his career.  Drake Maye's college career PS2% is 18.9%. Justin Herbert's college PS2% was 18.2% and got as high as 19.4% in his final season at Oregon. Lamar Jackson's college PS2% was 20.4%. In the NFL, it is 19.8% over six seasons.

It is also highly variable and doesn't have much impact on people's perception of QBs. E.g: Jalen Hurts was worshipped by the masses coming off of his 2022 season. His PS2% was 21.2%, which is pretty bad, but it didn't stop the "Hurts is an elite QB!" agenda. This season, statistically he was less productive and now people are questioning how good he really is. His PS2% this past season was 14.4% which is very good. Even further, Caleb Williams in 2023 was astronomically high at 23.2%. Yet, it was at 16.0% in 2022, which is solid. Just more proof of it's variability.

I understand the concern, if it directly translates that could be a problem. However, there are examples of QBs with a low PS2% in college struggling with pressure in the NFL and examples of guys with a high PS2% in college figuring it out.


https://x.com/tjdissect/status/1759075257250443651?s=20

[Philosophers]

A QB already has to call out blitzes, adjust protection then drop back and process what the defense is doing while going through progressions hoping to see an opening to throw downfield.  Multiple things.  It is not his job to keep players off his back.  Each of his OL players has one job to do.  If he ducks say an edge coming around or once in a while sensing a sack then great but with him having so much already it is not his job to add a role an OL should be doing.

[Ed Vette]

There's a positive and negative to a good percentage. Take No Nix. He will hit the open easy completion instead of looking downfield for a bigger completion. That's why he had such a high completion % at 77.4. He only took 5 sacks in each of his last two seasons. Yet he had a whopping 9.6 Y/A. So it wasn't necessarily checkdowns but 12.4 Y/C. 

Calib Williams took 33 sacks. He had an outstanding 9.4 Y/A but 15.4 Y/C.

So Williams produced 3 more yards per completion which is huge, while his completion % was nine points lower than Nix. I think you also have to factor in how many yards were lost on the 28 additional sacks. Conservatively, at 5 yards per loss, that's 140 yards or hypothetically two TD scoring drives. It can make the difference in extending or killing a drive.

Pick your poison but I'd rather have Bo Nix behind that crappy Giants Oline. But the pundits and Youtubers would disagree. So what the hell do I know...

[MightyGiants]

There's a positive and negative to a good percentage. Take No Nix. He will hit the open easy completion instead of looking downfield for a bigger completion. That's why he had such a high completion % at 77.4. He only took 5 sacks in each of his last two seasons. Yet he had a whopping 9.6 Y/A. So it wasn't necessarily checkdowns but 12.4 Y/C. 

Calib Williams took 33 sacks. He had an outstanding 9.4 Y/A but 15.4 Y/C.

So Williams produced 3 more yards per completion which is huge, while his completion % was nine points lower than Nix. I think you also have to factor in how many yards were lost on the 28 additional sacks. Conservatively, at 5 yards per loss, that's 140 yards or hypothetically two TD scoring drives. It can make the difference in extending or killing a drive.

Pick your poison but I'd rather have Bo Nix behind that crappy Giants Oline. But the pundits and Youtubers would disagree. So what the hell do I know...

Ed,

Many (including myself) favor

aDoT: Average Depth of Target

Rather than Y/A

Here is the ADOT for the top prospects


Maye 11.0
Penix 10.7
Daniels 10.5
McCarthy 9.4
Williams 9.2
Bo Nix 6.8

[Ed Vette]

Ed,

Many (including myself) favor

aDoT: Average Depth of Target

Rather than Y/A

Here is the ADOT for the top prospects


Maye 11.0
Penix 10.7
Daniels 10.5
McCarthy 9.4
Williams 9.2
Bo Nix 6.8

It doesn't take into account completion % of that target. Although I would have bet that Maye would lead that metric.