Playing the odds at the QB position

[MightyGiants]

I have been bouncing this around in my mind.   From Daboll and Schoen's perspective, the QB situation is one of chance/odds. 

Say the goal is to get top-10 production from the QB position in the next few seasons (if they don't, Daboll and possibly Schoen will likely be out of work).

Your options at this point:

1)  Draft an elite WR at 6, do your best to fix the O-line, and ride with Jones.  Now, I give the chances of this working (getting the top-10 production) at 10% to 20%.  Now they could draft a quarterback in round 2 (or trade for one), which might bump these odds up by another 5% (because the 2nd rounder or traded guy plays well).  So, depending on how the Giants view DJ's potential on the field and his ability to stay on the field, you are looking at 15% to 25%


2)  Last year, a Colts fan (they were picking 4) ran the numbers on success for drafting a QB 2-6, and that came out to 20%.  I would push these odds down a bit (say 5%) because the Giants will not get their true number 1 receiver, and the line is still in question.  There is still a chance that DJ stays healthy and returns or betters his 2022 numbers, but without the WR, these odds may be closer to 5%.  So, the boost and the drag cancel each other out, and leaves this at about 20%

I have been operating to some degree on the belief the Giants would go QB with pick 6, but when you run the numbers, maybe they take a flyer with a lower-picked QB and see what happens with Jones with proper support.  I am not saying that's the way to go, but I could see how the team could believe it's the way to go.

Here is the drafting QB success breakdown

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/04/18/colts-what-are-the-odds-colts-get-starting-qb-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/70123423007/#:~:text=So%2C%20by%20my%20count%2C%20roughly,Mayfield)%20%E2%80%93%20is%20far%20lower.

[katkavage]

But if they pass on a QB they could have taken and that QB goes on to be a success, it's end of any legacy Schoen could ever hope on having. They will get at least a year's pass from people if they do pick a QB knowing a QB won't turn it around in one year. If they don't take a QB, stick with the already mediocre status quo and nothing changes. Sayonara. 

[MightyGiants]

But if they pass on a QB they could have taken and that QB goes on to be a success, it's end of any legacy Schoen could ever hope on having. They will get at least a year's pass from people if they do pick a QB knowing a QB won't turn it around in one year. If they don't take a QB, stick with the already mediocre status quo and nothing changes. Sayonara. 

To your point, if there is a QB prospect that Schoen and Daboll believe he can't miss and he is within reach, I think the odds argument I laid out goes out the window.   Most of what I wrote was based on the assumption that while there are nice QB prospects, all of them come with foreseeable paths to failure or mediocrity.

[Bob In PA]

But if they pass on a QB they could have taken and that QB goes on to be a success, it's end of any legacy Schoen could ever hope on having. They will get at least a year's pass from people if they do pick a QB knowing a QB won't turn it around in one year. If they don't take a QB, stick with the already mediocre status quo and nothing changes. Sayonara. 

kat: OK, but failing to draft a QB who turns out well is not nearly as damaging to a GM's legacy as missing on a QB for whom you use a top-ten first-round pick.

Also, passing up a really good QB has no bad effect on the odds that your existing starter might succeed.

In fact, it can help the current QB's chances if they instead draft a difference-maker on offense.

In addition, even the vast majority of 1st round QB's take over a year to make a measurable impact.

I think it's smart to NOT draft a QB unless you seriously believe none of your current QB's stand a good chance of success -or- you see a QB you believe in without a doubt. So if they do take a QB then I assume at least one of the those possibilities is correct.

Applying that approach to the Giants, if Schoen does take a QB, either he thinks our current QB's have no shot at NFL success, or he thinks he has found a can't-miss player, or both.

Bob

PS.  Apparently, while I was typing all this, Rich posted mostly the same thing. Sorry for the duplication.

[katkavage]

kat: OK, but failing to draft a QB who turns out well is not nearly as damaging to a GM's legacy as missing on a QB for whom you use a top-ten first-round pick.

Also, passing up a really good QB has no bad effect on the odds that your existing starter might succeed.

In fact, it can help the current QB's chances if they instead draft a difference-maker on offense.

In addition, even the vast majority of 1st round QB's take over a year to make a measurable impact.

I think it's smart to NOT draft a QB unless you seriously believe none of your current QB's stand a good chance of success -or- you see a QB you believe in without a doubt. So if they do take a QB then I assume at least one of the those possibilities is correct.

Applying that approach to the Giants, if Schoen does take a QB, either he thinks our current QB's have no shot at NFL success, or he thinks he has found a can't-miss player, or both.

Bob

PS.  Apparently, while I was typing all this, Rich posted mostly the same thing. Sorry for the duplication.

Well of course they shouldn't draft a QB unless they do feel that. His career is on the line either way. It's a high risk business. Schoen is young and has no track record really. What he does here will either elevate him or not. The one thing he has to do is think independently. I know there are powerful presences in the Giants organization. He has to shut all that out and be his own man.

[Bob In PA]

Well of course they shouldn't draft a QB unless they do feel that. His career is on the line either way. It's a high risk business. Schoen is young and has no track record really. What he does here will either elevate him or not. The one thing he has to do is think independently. I know there are powerful presences in the Giants organization. He has to shut all that out and be his own man.

kat: Agree with all of that 100 percent. Bob

[Stringer Bell]

1)  Draft an elite WR at 6, do your best to fix the O-line, and ride with Jones.  Now, I give the chances of this working (getting the top-10 production) at 10% to 20%.  Now they could draft a quarterback in round 2 (or trade for one), which might bump these odds up by another 5% (because the 2nd rounder or traded guy plays well).  So, depending on how the Giants view DJ's potential on the field and his ability to stay on the field, you are looking at 15% to 25%.

I think the framing of this exercise is wrong in that I think top 10 QB play in the next 1-2 years is borderline impossible. The only scenario by which I see the Giants getting top 10 QB play is drafting one at #6 and having him be Stroud-level right out of the gate, which will be extremely difficult without a #1 WR.

The bottom of the top 10 are guys like Herbert, Tua, Goff. Do you honestly see any chance in hell of the Giants being at that level next year? Because I don't.

I also disagree with the notion that a 2nd round pick in this draft has a 5% better chance than DJ to succeed with a #1 WR and improved OL. I'd say it'd be more like a 5-10% chance for DJ to be Goff-level with a #1 WR and improved OL. And I think there's a 1% chance a 2nd round pick would perform at that level. Nix and Penix are just not that good.

[katkavage]

I think the framing of this exercise is wrong in that I think top 10 QB play in the next 1-2 years is borderline impossible. The only scenario by which I see the Giants getting top 10 QB play is drafting one at #6 and having him be Stroud-level right out of the gate, which will be extremely difficult without a #1 WR.

The bottom of the top 10 are guys like Herbert, Tua, Goff. Do you honestly see any chance in hell of the Giants being at that level next year? Because I don't.

I also disagree with the notion that a 2nd round pick in this draft has a 5% better chance than DJ to succeed with a #1 WR and improved OL. I'd say it'd be more like a 5-10% chance for DJ to be Goff-level with a #1 WR and improved OL. And I think there's a 1% chance a 2nd round pick would perform at that level. Nix and Penix are just not that good.

No matter who they draft, who they acquire, they will not be at that next level next year. The point will be beyond next year. Will who they draft help make the team a winner in 2025 and beyond? Next year is gone no matter what. Let's just look at who has potential and can make the team a winner after next year.

[Stringer Bell]

No matter who they draft, who they acquire, they will not be at that next level next year. The point will be beyond next year. Will who they draft help make the team a winner in 2025 and beyond? Next year is gone no matter what. Let's just look at who has potential and can make the team a winner after next year.

Then it's an impossible exercise that further requires projection of next year's draft in addition to this year's.

They have no chance of top 10 QB play in 2025 and beyond by drafting a QB in 2024 in 2nd round or later.

They have 5-10% chance by sticking with DJ, drafting a #1 WR and improving the OL in 2024.

I can't give a percentage for drafting a QB at #6 in 2024, because that QB still won't have a #1 WR. Will we be in a position to draft one in 2025? No idea. Will we have cap space to sign one? Highly unlikely given their price tag.

And I can't give a percentage for a QB in the 2025 draft without knowing how high we'll pick.

So it's a fruitless exercise with too many variables.

[Jclayton92]

CJ Stroud produced with a mediocre line outside LT, a mediocre running game, a 5th rd wr, and a couple #2 wrs, and a good TE.

A great Qb changes everything. Draft a great Qb, with 2 guards in FA, a weapon either in the draft or FA and a couple mud level signings on d and this is a borderline playoff team immediately, then build the next 2-3 years with a cheap rookie QB contract and then start competing for titles.

Better odds that DJ doesn't throw the ball beyond 20 yards for the first half of the season, than DJ does playing at a top 10 level.

[MightyGiants]

CJ Stroud produced with a mediocre line outside LT, a mediocre running game, a 5th rd wr, and a couple #2 wrs, and a good TE.

A great Qb changes everything. Draft a great Qb, with 2 guards in FA, a weapon either in the draft or FA and a couple mud level signings on d and this is a borderline playoff team immediately, then build the next 2-3 years with a cheap rookie QB contract and then start competing for titles.

Better odds that DJ doesn't throw the ball beyond 20 yards for the first half of the season, than DJ does playing at a top 10 level.

Jess,

CJ had a much better support system than you think.  Look at this PFF lineup.

[Jclayton92]

Jess,

CJ had a much better support system than you think.  Look at this PFF lineup.

That's how they played with the benefit of CJ Stroud, Noah Brown and Nico Collins had done nothing the years before this past year, Tank Dell was a 5th rd rookie. All of them greatly benefited from CJ Stroud in the same way the Giants would if we drafted the guy.

[MightyGiants]

That's how they played with the benefit of CJ Stroud, Noah Brown and Nico Collins had done nothing the years before this past year, Tank Dell was a 5th rd rookie. All of them greatly benefited from CJ Stroud in the same way the Giants would if we drafted the guy.

How did you determine what percentage of the improved play was natural player improvement versus the new coaching staff versus the new rookie QB?

[Gmo11]

There's a clip going around twitter of Beane (Schoen's former boss) discussing trading so much to get Josh Allen and his reasoning boiled down to "Either he works out and nobody gives a sh*t how much it cost to get him, or he doesn't work out and I won't be around here anyway". Which is refreshingly honest. 

That's relevant to this situation because Daboll/Schoen are in a similar situation now, though not exactly the same because every team at the top of this draft needs a QB so they can't really trade up there to get one.  They could potentially take McCarthy at 6 though and similarly if he works out nobody will care that he was picked higher than most thought he should and if he fails they'll all be fired anyway. 

When you look at it through the prism of what's the most reasonable thing to do for the team I still don't think taking McCarthy at 6 is the right thing to do.  I don't feel strongly enough that he's going to turn into a real stud, although I do see some potential there.  (I have him ranked over Maye at this point). But when you look at it through the prism of a GM that's given a mixed bag of results after 2 years you can see why he might say screw it either we get our QB for the next decade and I've got job security forever or he sucks and I'm fired anyway so I don't have to sit around and try to fix it.

[Brooklyn Dave]

I have been bouncing this around in my mind.  From Daboll and Schoen's perspective, the QB situation is one of chance/odds. 

Say the goal is to get top-10 production from the QB position in the next few seasons (if they don't, Daboll and possibly Schoen will likely be out of work).

Your options at this point:

1)  Draft an elite WR at 6, do your best to fix the O-line, and ride with Jones.  Now, I give the chances of this working (getting the top-10 production) at 10% to 20%.  Now they could draft a quarterback in round 2 (or trade for one), which might bump these odds up by another 5% (because the 2nd rounder or traded guy plays well).  So, depending on how the Giants view DJ's potential on the field and his ability to stay on the field, you are looking at 15% to 25%


2)  Last year, a Colts fan (they were picking 4) ran the numbers on success for drafting a QB 2-6, and that came out to 20%.  I would push these odds down a bit (say 5%) because the Giants will not get their true number 1 receiver, and the line is still in question.  There is still a chance that DJ stays healthy and returns or betters his 2022 numbers, but without the WR, these odds may be closer to 5%.  So, the boost and the drag cancel each other out, and leaves this at about 20%

I have been operating to some degree on the belief the Giants would go QB with pick 6, but when you run the numbers, maybe they take a flyer with a lower-picked QB and see what happens with Jones with proper support.  I am not saying that's the way to go, but I could see how the team could believe it's the way to go.

Here is the drafting QB success breakdown

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/04/18/colts-what-are-the-odds-colts-get-starting-qb-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/70123423007/#:~:text=So%2C%20by%20my%20count%2C%20roughly,Mayfield)%20%E2%80%93%20is%20far%20lower.

Maybe an elite WR won't be there in the second round , but he could be . Fixing the OL has to be the  priority and that is why if Joe Alt is there at 6 you take him.. I know, I know, that he was a LT at Notre Dame and Neal so far has not worked out , but Alt came to Notre Dame as a blocking tight end and developed to All American status. With a very good OL and with the receivers we have plus anyone we add in FA or in the second round , Daniel Jones can be a good to very good QB. There are not many QBs in the league who can run like Jones can and give him OL protection and a running game , let's see the results .