How successful are quarterbacks drafted on Day 2?

[brownelvis54]

I found this article very interesting, but I found the comments to the article just as fascinating.


We recently looked at the NFL success rate for quarterbacks drafted in Round 1, finding that since 2010 only 37.2% turned into solid starters or better. Now, let's look at quarterbacks selected on Day 2 during that same time period.



https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/4/13/24127654/how-successful-are-quarterbacks-drafted-on-day-2-nfl-draft

[brownelvis54]

ED came to this conclusion:

Totals

There have been 32 quarterbacks selected on Day 2 of the draft since 2010. To categorize them, I used the same Hall of Famers/Franchise QBs/Solid starters tiers used in the Round 1 quarterbacks post. I added a 'Solid backups/occasional starters' category, but hat we are really looking for are quarterbacks who fit neatly into 'solid starter' or above.

Here is how it breaks down.

Future Hall of Famers: 1 (Wilson)
Franchise QBs: 1 (Hurts)
Solid starters: 3 (Dalton, Kaepernick, Carr)
Solid backups/occasional starters: (Foles, Smith, Glennon, Garappolo, Brissett, Rudolph, Lock, Mills, Ridder)
*Levis is To Be Determined

Wilson and Hurts show that it is possible to find a top-tier quarterback on Day 2, though not likely. If you want to argue about whether or not Wilson is a Hall of Fame quarterback, fine. That's not the point, though. For our purposes, all we are trying to identify is how many of these quarterbacks land in the 'solid starter' or above categories.

I have just five of the 32 quarterbacks drafted on Day 2 as 'solid starters' or more. That's just 15.6%. In our look at quarterbacks drafted in Round 1, we found that 37.2% of the quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 landed in the 'solid starter' or above category.

That is quite a drop from Day 1. So, even if the NFL isn't good at identifying and developing Round 1 quarterbacks, it is still far more likely that you will get a quality starter if you take one in the first round rather than trying to find one on Day 2.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

It's a crap shoot most of the time. To me, most early drafted QBs have all the physical tools to be great. What they end up lacking is self-confidence, quick mental acuity, a good offensive line, a good supporting case, great play calling, and most of all, the inherent attitude of a winner. In my opinion, which means nothing in the grand scheme of NFL style player analysis, I think JJ McCarthy seems to show that necessary confidence and that winner's mentality. However, those rather obscure aspects are tough to measure, and it's a huge step from college to the NFL so I go back to my original premise, it's a crap shoot

[brownelvis54]

It's a crap shoot most of the time. To me, most early drafted QBs have all the physical tools to be great. What they end up lacking is self-confidence, quick mental acuity, a good offensive line, a good supporting case, great play calling, and most of all, the inherent attitude of a winner. In my opinion, which means nothing in the grand scheme of NFL style player analysis, I think JJ McCarthy seems to show that necessary confidence and that winner's mentality. However, those rather obscure aspects are tough to measure, and it's a huge step from college to the NFL so I go back to my original premise, it's a crap shoot

Very true Jolly. I found this in the comment section about the formula used by Ed





Ed, you missed a serious point. There are twice as many picks day 2 so if you used both of them, that is 31.2 % chance of getting them vs 37.2 for round 1 cause you can have twice as many shots. Those numbers are pretty darned close. I think most people would take a first over a second and a third, so maybe the value is in using multiple day 2 picks rather than the 1. IT goes back to the trading down is always better. Not to mention day 2 picks are much cheaper. Since QBs are so hard to find maybe just drafting as many as possible is the best action. It is more complicated than just "the odds are better day 1".

I think I would rather draft a more sure-fire prospect in first round and just go with the random dart method of picking multiple picks for a QB.

[brownelvis54]

As far as WRs go and using the same formula Ed used for day 2 QBs a commenter pointed this fact out:




For those so married to taking a WR in the top 10 let me give you some food for thought. There is a strong argument that taking a WR in the top Ten or even the first round is a complete lack of understanding of the draft value of the position.

Now i used my words very carefully here and purposefully. I said the positions "draft value" not the importance of the position in the NFL so its different then say the RB position. I'm talking in the draft. Let me explain.

According to PFF a site Ed likes to use. If you go and look at the the TOP 15 WRs rankings you find that only TWO of the top 15 were taken in the top 10 and only 4 were taken in the entire first round people. I looked at the 2021 rankings and here are they are:

1.DeVante Adams-2nd Round
2. Justin Jefferson- 22nd overall
3. Tyreek Hill-5th Round
4. Ja'Marr Chase-5th Overall
5.Stefon Diggs-5th Round
6.Cooper Kupp-3rd Round
7.AJ Brown- 2nd Round
8.Terry McLaurin 3 ROund
9. Ceedee Lamb-17th
10. Deebo Samuel- Second Round
11.-Mike Evans-7th overall
12. DeAndre Hopkins 27th overall
13.Garrett Wilson-10th overall
14. DK MetCalf-2nd Round
15. Amon Ra St Brown- 4Th Round

I am not against taking a WR but I think this has been a LOOOOOG trend that requires ED to maybe think about his Draft Rules specifically as it comes to WRs a position that is important in the NFL BUT is routinely an extremely deep position where you can find number one guys in the 4th and 5th rounds of drafts. As you see from this list it shows that taking a WR in the top 10 is waste of draft value. And that you are better off IF WR is the position you want. Trading back, getting more picks and taking WR in the later rounds. Ja'Mare Chase is a great WR BUT DeVante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Aj Brown, Tyreek Hill.

Ed need to add this rule of the Draft. Take a WR in Later rounds.

[spiderblue43]

I still hope the Giants can trade down reasonably and add multiple picks this draft. Plenty of good wrs later to grab  if that's the case. Please don't trade up for a qb. Let the draft come to you.

[coggs]

Russell Wilson, Hall of Fame?  Uhm, yeah, no.

[bamagiantfan]

I certainly don't think it is a "crap shoot" or a "random dart".

For me the one underrated, underappreciated, and undervalued trait is that guys who win in college regardless of who is around them more often than not will win in the pros. Guys like Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Purdy don't have the prototypical skill set, but they figure it out. The guys that rocket to the top of draft boards after their Senior year as a shiny new plaything for NFL GMs to consider often.....very often....don't pan out despite being given every opportunity to do so. Dan Marino was a sure fire top 5 pick entering his senior season at Pitt, but with a coaching change and more interceptions than he had thrown in the past, GMs changed their minds his final year in college. That was true of Josh Allen as well, although he didn't slip near as far. Guys who can lead can lead. Take one of them. If you question their leadership, and the willingness of the team to follow them, pass.

[katkavage]

It's a long shot.