The If's and But's About It

[uconnjack8]

You hit on the point that that have to know the differences in the QBs they had prior to Jones. As well as the similarities. Do they see something in Jones that compels them to envision more from him?

I think they believe they can get more out of Jones with a competent OL.  I have no idea how good they think Jones can be.  I certainly feel his ceiling is very limited but they know him a heck of a lot better than I do.

To me the question is if they can get a bit more out of Jones and the team improves, how far can Jones really take a team?  And is a 9-8 type season a reason to move forward with Jones, maybe restructure to more guaranteed money to lower his cap hit but lock him in for a few more years?

[DaveBrown74]

And is a 9-8 type season a reason to move forward with Jones, maybe restructure to more guaranteed money to lower his cap hit but lock him in for a few more years?

I feel like that is effectively what they did after the 2022 season. Unless they feel signing Jones was a great decision that they would do again if they could go back in time, I don't see why they'd want to compound it.

[Jclayton92]

Daniel Jones only had 13 completions beyond 10 yards from the pocket (outside the numbers) in 2022

As I have stated previously he only had 2 passes beyond 20 yards before Thanksgiving in 2022.

He also finished with only 27 passes total beyond 20 yards in 2022

So when you see articles like this "Daniel Jones is a great deep ball passer in 2022" when he only threw it 20+ times it's super misleading.

https://giantswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/07/new-york-giants-daniel-jones-among-nfl-best-deep-ball-passers-2022/

2022 was absolutely smoke and mirrors which is why the Giants have a Day 1 Qb problem currently.

[Bob In PA]

I've said this since day 1:  Jones has all the tools, Height / Good Arm / Accuracy / Mobility / Smarts / Dedication / Toughness / Etc.  The one tool he is missing is Processing speed and that is one item that can be improved with time but will always be an issue.  This is why just looking at him and seeing his tools can get some people excited about his ceiling only to watch him bump his head pretty quickly   

Where: Good post, and I really like your new "logo" under your name. Bob

[sxdxca38]

Daniel Jones only had 13 completions beyond 10 yards from the pocket (outside the numbers) in 2022

As I have stated previously he only had 2 passes beyond 20 yards before Thanksgiving in 2022.

He also finished with only 27 passes total beyond 20 yards in 2022

So when you see articles like this "Daniel Jones is a great deep ball passer in 2022" when he only threw it 20+ times it's super misleading.

https://giantswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/07/new-york-giants-daniel-jones-among-nfl-best-deep-ball-passers-2022/

2022 was absolutely smoke and mirrors which is why the Giants have a Day 1 Qb problem currently.

Hi there,

I don't think anyone will disagree with you regarding DJ's attempts at the deep ball especially in 2022.

But

I shared this with you earlier, and I'll share it again, as I am curious your thoughts?

"I understand where you are coming from, but may I share something regarding your first point.

As far as Jones not pushing the ball down the field in 2023. If you noticed in his final game before getting hurt he started to push the ball deep.

I believe he saw the positive effects that Taylor had doing that before he got hurt, and so he began to open it up as well, but sadly he tore his ACL I believe in that game.

So, in 2024 I believe DJ knows in order for him and the Giants offense to be successful and explosive, he's got to take some shots down the field, and I believe he will do that.

However as Mighty said time will tell, and we will have to see what happens.

So, my questions for you are:

A) Does DJ realize he needs to take some more deep shots during a game?

And

B) do you think he has the ability to do that?

And

C) If he does do that will the Giants offense improve and take a jump?

[MightyGiants]

Daniel Jones only had 13 completions beyond 10 yards from the pocket (outside the numbers) in 2022

As I have stated previously he only had 2 passes beyond 20 yards before Thanksgiving in 2022.

He also finished with only 27 passes total beyond 20 yards in 2022

So when you see articles like this "Daniel Jones is a great deep ball passer in 2022" when he only threw it 20+ times it's super misleading.

https://giantswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/07/new-york-giants-daniel-jones-among-nfl-best-deep-ball-passers-2022/

2022 was absolutely smoke and mirrors which is why the Giants have a Day 1 Qb problem currently.

This is very similar to the issue with JJ McCarthy.  Many people knock JJ out for lack of raw stats while failing to consider the quality of how his stats were produced.   The same is true here.   Because the Giant's O-line was a bottom-10 pass-protecting unit, the Giants simply couldn't scheme many deep balls because the O-line would break down.  In fact, Daboll tried earlier in the season a deeper offense only to find his passing protection wasn't up to the task.  So when JJ has the time, he has proven to be an effective and efficient deep-ball passer.

[TONKA56]

This is very similar to the issue with JJ McCarthy.  Many people knock JJ out for lack of raw stats while failing to consider the quality of how his stats were produced.   The same is true here.   Because the Giant's O-line was a bottom-10 pass-protecting unit, the Giants simply couldn't scheme many deep balls because the O-line would break down.  In fact, Daboll tried earlier in the season a deeper offense only to find his passing protection wasn't up to the task.  So when JJ has the time, he has proven to be an effective and efficient deep-ball passer.

There's definitely something to this...meaning that the coaching staff and the game planning was at least as culpable with respect to the lack of deep passing as the quarterbacks decisions. We saw it when other quarterbacks were in the game too. Of course we will never know exactly what the coaches wanted or what specific instructions they were giving the players.

[uconnjack8]

There's definitely something to this...meaning that the coaching staff and the game planning was at least as culpable with respect to the lack of deep passing as the quarterbacks decisions. We saw it when other quarterbacks were in the game too. Of course we will never know exactly what the coaches wanted or what specific instructions they were giving the players.

Or what the coaches wouldnt try due to personnel

[TONKA56]

Or what the coaches wouldnt try due to personnel

That's more or less what I'm getting at.

[MightyGiants]

There's definitely something to this...meaning that the coaching staff and the game planning was at least as culpable with respect to the lack of deep passing as the quarterbacks decisions. We saw it when other quarterbacks were in the game too. Of course we will never know exactly what the coaches wanted or what specific instructions they were giving the players.

We saw it with Eli Manning who turned into a chuck and duck QB late in his career thanks to the deterioration of the pass protection.

[Jclayton92]

Hi there,

I don't think anyone will disagree with you regarding DJ's attempts at the deep ball especially in 2022.

But

I shared this with you earlier, and I'll share it again, as I am curious your thoughts?

"I understand where you are coming from, but may I share something regarding your first point.

As far as Jones not pushing the ball down the field in 2023. If you noticed in his final game before getting hurt he started to push the ball deep.

I believe he saw the positive effects that Taylor had doing that before he got hurt, and so he began to open it up as well, but sadly he tore his ACL I believe in that game.

So, in 2024 I believe DJ knows in order for him and the Giants offense to be successful and explosive, he's got to take some shots down the field, and I believe he will do that.

However as Mighty said time will tell, and we will have to see what happens.

So, my questions for you are:

A) Does DJ realize he needs to take some more deep shots during a game? I'm sure he does, he averaged 1 pass beyond 20 yards per game in 2023 having 9 passes beyond 20 yards in 8 games.

And

B) do you think he has the ability to do that? Arm wise he has the ability to do that but processing speed and him being gun shy could prevent him from that.

And

C) If he does do that will the Giants offense improve and take a jump? I don't think he can so I'm skeptical of him being anything more than a backup. Most top end Qbs average 55-65 20+ yard completions a season, so Jones would almost have to double his 2022 output to be where other guys are. That's not counting 10+ yard throws as great Qbs are averaging in the 150-160 cmpl a season. So if he jumped to 55 20+ yard throws and 150 10+ yard throws then I imagine the team takes a step. That's however a lot to hope for.

[Jclayton92]

This is very similar to the issue with JJ McCarthy.  Many people knock JJ out for lack of raw stats while failing to consider the quality of how his stats were produced.   The same is true here.   Because the Giant's O-line was a bottom-10 pass-protecting unit, the Giants simply couldn't scheme many deep balls because the O-line would break down.  In fact, Daboll tried earlier in the season a deeper offense only to find his passing protection wasn't up to the task.  So when JJ has the time, he has proven to be an effective and efficient deep-ball passer.

I'm sorry but I see no connection between JJ Mccarthy and Daniel Jones.

The fact remains that Jones has failed to put up any type of volume passing in a passing league.

[MightyGiants]

I'm sorry but I see no connection between JJ Mccarthy and Daniel Jones.

The fact remains that Jones has failed to put up any type of volume passing in a passing league.

Jess,

It seems to me the big difference between us, is I view some stats as "raw"/"production" (for lack of a better term) and other stats as quality stats.   Raw stats, in large part, are generated by sheer number of passing attempts.  Quality stats are ones that measure what a QB does specifically with those attempts (usually on a per attempt basis).

The people, like yourself, who are strong critics of Jones tend to focus on the raw numbers rather than quality stats.


To further clarify, here are various stats in buckets


Raw stats:

Total yards or yards per game
Total touchdowns or touchdowns per game
Total interceptions or interceptions per game

Quality stats

QB rating
QBR
Yards per attempt
While technically not a stat, PFF rating would fall into this category
TD/INT ratio

[Jclayton92]

Jess,

It seems to me the big difference between us, is I view some stats as "raw"/"production" (for lack of a better term) and other stats as quality stats.   Raw stats, in large part, are generated by sheer number of passing attempts.  Quality stats are ones that measure what a QB does specifically with those attempts (usually on a per attempt basis).

The people, like yourself, who are strong critics of Jones tend to focus on the raw numbers rather than quality stats.


To further clarify, here are various stats in buckets


Raw stats:

Total yards or yards per game
Total touchdowns or touchdowns per game
Total interceptions or interceptions per game

Quality stats

QB rating
QBR
Yards per attempt
While technically not a stat, PFF rating would fall into this category
TD/INT ratio

Raw stats tell the story of the game.

Take for example the Tennessee Game to start the season, Jones did absolutely nothing outside of one deep pass in the 4th quarter and besides that it was defense, rushing, and special teams that won us that game.

Jones went 17-21 with an 80% cmpl rate, and a 115 rating but had zero effect on the game. So if we looked at your stats then you'd think Jones played extremely well but us as fans that watched the game realized he did absolutely nothing outside that one 60 yard throw in the 4th quarter. Before that he barely had a 100 passing yards the whole game, but we are supposed to act like he did well.

Sam howell in his 1st year playing put up more production than Jones ever has, and that's sad. In Jones best year his production tied Davis Mills which is equally sad. There's no way to get around that, 3rd and 4th round picks on equally bad teams putting up the same or more production than Jones. There is no defense of that other than to say Jones isn't that guy and quite frankly has never been that guy ever throughout high school, college, and the pros. He has 1 game a year that make people excited and forget about the other 15 were he played horribly.

[MightyGiants]

Sam howell in his 1st year playing put up more production than Jones ever has, and that's sad.

You know who had the most passing attempts in the NFL last year?  None other than Sam Howell.   That is the danger of focusing too much on just raw stats, you don't see the whole picture.   You only get the whole picture by considering raw stats, quality stats, and the support a given QB receives.  Otherwise, you risk repeating the mistakes seen in the 3 blind men and the elephant parable


Three blind men come across an elephant.  The first man happens upon its leg, and concludes it's a tree. The second man bumps into its trunk, and concludes it's a snake.  The last blind man feels its tail, and concludes it's a broom.