New York Giants PFF offensive line rankings since 2019

[kingm56]

Let's use number of sacks as that is a better measurement.

2023 - Daniel Jones - played in 6 games, sacked 30 times, 160 pass attempts so was sacked once every 5.33 pass attempts.

2020 - Justin Herbert - played in 15 games, sacked only 32 times, 595 pass attempts so was sacked once every 18.6 pass attempts.

2021 - Tua - played in 13 games, sacked only 20 times, 388 pass attempts so was sacked once every 19.4 pass attempts.

2023 - Geno Smith - played in 15 games, sacked only 31 times, 499 pass attempts so sacked once every 16.1 pass attempts.

Kyler Murray - played in only 8 games, sacked only 18 times, 268 pass attempts so sacked once every 14.9 pass attempts.

These QBs you cite were not getting pressured at anything remotely close to what DJ endured.  Sacked every 5.33 attempts versus 14 - 19 attempts is statistically very meaningful and very different.  Your comparison is not remotely reasonable.  I am not saying DJ is a good QB or as good as the QBs you cite.   

QBs have zero culpability on plays that end in sacks?  Is it possible DJ is sacked a lot as a byproduct of his limited processing and/or awareness? 

[sxdxca38]

The implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Hi King,

Thank you so much for your contribution and your willingness to contribute to the thread.

I would like to add to Mighty and Philosophers fine comments regarding skill position attributes and sack rate.

You had mentioned Justin Herbert, which I think we both would agree is a very good QB.

However, in my original post, I had shared the data over a five-year period regarding DJ, and not just one.

Can we do the same with Herbert?

Chargers offensive lines over the last four years

- 2020 ranked 32nd -
- 2021 ranked 10th -
- 2022 ranked 12th -
- 2023 ranked 9th -

So, while it is true that Herbert produced with the 32nd ranked O line for one year back in 2020, since that time his O lines have been upgraded ranking 10th, 12th, and 9th respectively.

Rhetorical questions here, but

A) If Herberts O lines were ranked 30th, 32nd, 30th, and 31st over the past four years, would he have still consistently put up the same numbers?

B) If he was getting sacked and hit as much as DJ has been over the same four years, could he possibly have gotten injured?

C) Would that have affected his QB play? Or would he still be producing at a high rate and it would have no affect on him?

Just curious your thoughts?

[sxdxca38]

Yes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither... 

Hi King,

Again, thank you so much for your contributions to the thread. However, may I address your comments defending Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay?

I decided to look up his stats in that game, may I share them with you?

Here they are:

26/49 53% 270 Yards 0 TD 2 Int 42.2 QBR 52.3 RTG

And the Chiefs put up 9 points and lost 31-9.

So, I'm not sure I would use that argument that Mahomes would still be producing at a high level when his offensive line was getting manhandled by the Bucs in that game.

So, some more rhetorical questions for you, but if Mahomes was under this kind of pressure for a full 17 game season, would he still be producing the same numbers that he is now?

And

B) If he was under this kind of pressure over a 5 year period, could he possibly of gotten injured? and could this have affected his QB play? Or would this have no impact on his play whatsoever?

Just curious your thoughts? 

[kingm56]

Hi King,

Thank you so much for your contribution and your willingness to contribute to the thread.

I would like to add to Mighty and Philosophers fine comments regarding skill position attributes and sack rate.

You had mentioned Justin Herbert, which I think we both would agree is a very good QB.

However, in my original post, I had shared the data over a five-year period regarding DJ, and not just one.

Can we do the same with Herbert?

Chargers offensive lines over the last four years

- 2020 ranked 32nd -
- 2021 ranked 10th -
- 2022 ranked 12th -
- 2023 ranked 9th -

So, while it is true that Herbert produced with the 32nd ranked O line for one year back in 2020, since that time his O lines have been upgraded ranking 10th, 12th, and 9th respectively.

Rhetorical questions here, but

A) If Herberts O lines were ranked 30th, 32nd, 30th, and 31st over the past four years, would he have still consistently put up the same numbers?

B) If he was getting sacked and hit as much as DJ has been over the same four years, could he possibly have gotten injured?

C) Would that have affected his QB play? Or would he still be producing at a high rate and it would have no affect on him?

Just curious your thoughts?

While I truly appreciate your efforts, this data has nothing to do with your original premise, which attempts to draw a correlation between QB metrics and oline rankings.  Showing Herbert's 5-year online rankings does not invalidate what he accomplished during his rookie season.  Also, it's interesting to note that Herbert's numbers did not increase with better protection; in some cases, they actually decreased.  Moreover, he was actually injured with his higher-ranked lines.  This data literally proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. 

Wil DJ play better with an Oline..YES.  Will he magically become something he's never been...I continue to say no. 

[kingm56]

Hi King,

Again, thank you so much for your contributions to the thread. However, may I address your comments defending Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay?

I decided to look up his stats in that game, may I share them with you?

Here they are:

26/49 53% 270 Yards 0 TD 2 Int 42.2 QBR 52.3 RTG

And the Chiefs put up 9 points and lost 31-9.

So, I'm not sure I would use that argument that Mahomes would still be producing at a high level when his offensive line was getting manhandled by the Bucs in that game.

So, some more rhetorical questions for you, but if Mahomes was under this kind of pressure for a full 17 game season, would he still be producing the same numbers that he is now?

And

B) If he was under this kind of pressure over a 5 year period, could he possibly of gotten injured? and could this have affected his QB play? Or would this have no impact on his play whatsoever?

Just curious your thoughts?

Hey SDX!  If you don't mind, please read what I posted again; I was very precise with my language.  I simply don't know how any fan could watch that game and not be an awe of Patrick Mahomes; he demonstrated skills in that game no other QB could duplicate. 

[kingm56]

Let's use number of sacks as that is a better measurement.

2023 - Daniel Jones - played in 6 games, sacked 30 times, 160 pass attempts so was sacked once every 5.33 pass attempts.

2020 - Justin Herbert - played in 15 games, sacked only 32 times, 595 pass attempts so was sacked once every 18.6 pass attempts.

2021 - Tua - played in 13 games, sacked only 20 times, 388 pass attempts so was sacked once every 19.4 pass attempts.

2023 - Geno Smith - played in 15 games, sacked only 31 times, 499 pass attempts so sacked once every 16.1 pass attempts.

Kyler Murray - played in only 8 games, sacked only 18 times, 268 pass attempts so sacked once every 14.9 pass attempts.

These QBs you cite were not getting pressured at anything remotely close to what DJ endured.  Sacked every 5.33 attempts versus 14 - 19 attempts is statistically very meaningful and very different.  Your comparison is not remotely reasonable.  I am not saying DJ is a good QB or as good as the QBs you cite.   

Why do you continue to place the onus of sacks entirely on the line?  The QB has immense culpabilities and is equally responsible for sacks. If you have time, read the article below; it's chalked full of relevant data that highlights the fallacy of attributing sacks to lines.   

"We know from past research that sacks are more a quarterback stat than we typically believed. A quarterback has more control over an offense's sack rate than the offensive line."

Key Takeaways
To wrap up, let's run through the key takeaways from the analysis above.

1. Quarterbacks control their own sack rate, and they are likely responsible for the quality of sacks they take too. We know this because QBs who change teams tend to have their sack quality follow them. If the offensive line or poor coaching was responsible for sack quality, it wouldn't follow the QBs to new teams.

2. If you read a comparison showing one QB has been sacked 30 times and another has been sacked 15, do not assume the QB who has been sacked 30 times has cost his team twice as many points because of the sacks.

3. Anecdotally, mobile QBs have tended to take less costly sacks.

4. Finally, we can see some of the biggest sack quality outliers in today's NFL. Lamar Jackson takes plenty of sacks, but he avoids losing expected points on a per sack basis better than any starter in the NFL today. On the other hand, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott have been the worst at taking costly sacks among today's starters.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/are-nfl-quarterbacks-responsible-for-sack-quality

[Philosophers]

QBs have zero culpability on plays that end in sacks?  Is it possible DJ is sacked a lot as a byproduct of his limited processing and/or awareness? 

ALL QBs are responsible (including Mahommes) for some portion (maybe 10%?) of their team's sacks.  Giants played 3 QBs who collectively got sacked something like 85 times in 2023.  There is no way Mahommes or any QB would reduce that number to 30 times and only get sacked once every 15 - 18 times. 

[sxdxca38]

While I truly appreciate your efforts, this data has nothing to do with your original premise, which attempts to draw a correlation between QB metrics and oline rankings.  Showing Herbert's 5-year online rankings does not invalidate what he accomplished during his rookie season.  Also, it's interesting to note that Herbert's numbers did not increase with better protection; in some cases, they actually decreased.  Moreover, he was actually injured with his higher-ranked lines.  This data literally proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. 

Wil DJ play better with an Oline..YES.  Will he magically become something he's never been...I continue to say no. 

Hi King,

Once again thank you so much for your comments and contributions and expressing your thoughts and opinions, that was very kind of you.

I thank you for your honest expressions that DJ will play better with an upgraded O line, that means a lot.

But at the same time, you said that Herberts upgraded O line had no impact on his performance, wouldn't that be a contradiction?

In other words, if DJ's upgraded O line would help him perform better, why wouldn't the same application be towards Herbert? or any other QB?

Furthermore, if Herbert has been playing behind a top 10-12 offensive line these past 4 years, and he still got injured, may I ask what would have happened to him if was actually playing behind the 30th ranked o line for the past 4 years?

Some more rhetorical questions for you, but could he have gotten injured even more? Is his top 10 offensive line helping him to stay relatively healthy?

Wouldn't his O line be playing a measure in his performance to stay upright?

Just curious your thoughts?

[kingm56]

ALL QBs are responsible (including Mahommes) for some portion (maybe 10%?) of their team's sacks.  Giants played 3 QBs who collectively got sacked something like 85 times in 2023.  There is no way Mahommes or any QB would reduce that number to 30 times and only get sacked once every 15 - 18 times.

The overwhelming evidence suggest it's a lot more than 10%.  But we can agree to disagree on this subject. 

[sxdxca38]

While I truly appreciate your efforts, this data has nothing to do with your original premise, which attempts to draw a correlation between QB metrics and oline rankings.  Showing Herbert's 5-year online rankings does not invalidate what he accomplished during his rookie season.  Also, it's interesting to note that Herbert's numbers did not increase with better protection; in some cases, they actually decreased.  Moreover, he was actually injured with his higher-ranked lines.  This data literally proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. 

Wil DJ play better with an Oline..YES.  Will he magically become something he's never been...I continue to say no. 

Hi King,

Thank you so much for continuing to contribute your expressions, it is very thoughtful of you.

I noticed you also mentioned QB Kyler Murray, may I share with you his O line rankings over the past 5 years, and how they may have impacted him?

Arizona Cardinals O line ranking

- 2019 ranked 22nd -
- 2020 ranked 12th -
- 2021 ranked 15th -
- 2022 ranked 25th -
- 2023 ranked 31st -

From 2019 through 2021 his O line improved and so did his stats.

Now please notice what happens to him when his O line begins to degrade in 2022 and 2023, playing behind the 25th and 31st ranked O line.

In 2022 he only plays in 11 games and is injured.

His RTG drops from 100.6 to 87.2, his 63.2 to 53.6, his avg drops from 7.9 to 6.1, his comp % drops from 69% to 66%.

In 2023 playing behind the 31st ranked O line, and he only plays in 8 game before being injured.

His RTG is 89.4, his QBR drops to 47.2, his Comp % drops to 65%, compared to what he was producing in 2020-2021 when he was given a top 15 O line.

Some more rhetorical questions for you, but do you think playing behind an atrocious O line in 2022 and 2023 had any impact on Kyler Murray's performance?

Do you think playing behind a bad O line could have had any impact on why he got injured in 2022 and 2023, only playing in 11 and 8 games respectively?

Just curious your thoughts?

[kingm56]

Hi King,



But at the same time, you said that Herberts upgraded O line had no impact on his performance, wouldn't that be a contradiction?

This is a statement of fact, not an opinion; Herberts aggregate numbers did not increase with better rated lines. He remains a top 10 QB, with or without a top 10 Oline, which is precisely my point.

[MightyGiants]

sacks are more a quarterback stat than we typically believed

To a degree, that claim has some validity.  Of course, if we start looking at pressure and, more importantly, time to pressure, we can see very clearly the challenges that Daniel Jones faced that were unique among QBs

[sxdxca38]

This is a statement of fact, not an opinion; Herberts aggregate numbers did not increase with better rated lines. He remains a top 10 QB, with or without a top 10 Oline, which is precisely my point.

Hi King,

I appreciate your efforts here, but sadly you're not answering my question, or possibly dodging it, so I'll ask it again.

If Herbert has been playing behind a top 10-12 offensive line these past 4 years, and he still got injured, right? May I ask what would have happened to him if was actually playing behind the 30th ranked O line for these past 4 years?

Could that have affected him getting injured even more? And if he had gotten injured, wouldn't the performance of his O line play a part in that?

Just curious your thoughts?

[kingm56]

To a degree, that claim has some validity.  Of course, if we start looking at pressure and, more importantly, time to pressure, we can see very clearly the challenges that Daniel Jones faced that were unique among QBs

This is a very small sample, covering just 5 of 60 of Jones' games. 

[MightyGiants]

This is a very small sample, covering just 5 of 60 of Jones' games. 

Yet so many fans want the Giants to bail on DJ's contract based on that same "small sample"