Realistic view of what team could become in next year or two

[Uncle Mickey]

The attempt here is at a realistic view of what this team could be next year or two. Let me know if you agree or it's overly optimistic 

So I'd like to touch on each unit and see if we of Big Blue Folk Lore can come to a consensus:


OFFENSE

QB: Big unknown for many and rightly so. Flashes of brilliance but supporting cast (WR, OL and OL coaching) has been undoubtedly one of the worst combinations in the league his entire tenure as Giants QB. Does this change, mercifully and finally? See below.

WR: Stark reality stat: The last giants receiver to break 1,000 was Odell in 2018 with 1,052 yards. In fact, no receiver has gotten more than 751 yards in that time span (Darius Slayton 2020). In the modern passing era those are ridiculously low numbers. But now another much ballyhooed LSU WR has been added to the fold.  The recent history has been fantastic: OBJ, J'Marr, Justin Jefferson. Now Malik Nabers. These guys come in and are often day 1 starters who also are 1100+ yard WRs year 1. We have a 3rd year Wan'Dale who did more than flash last year and a 2nd year Hyatt who last year proved at minimum his speed has to be seriously accounted for and requires safety help over the top. Slayton the vet of the group is steady if unspectacular and Hodgins is a nice possession guy and red zone threat.

TE: Waller is probably retiring, big hit here. However under Wellman hopefully Bellinger slims back down a bit and regains some of his lost agilty/speed. He was not as agile last year. There is a thing as too much muscle. Also Theo seems to be a super intriguing option who has some serious upside in the passing game and as a blocker.

OL: Always the million dollar question. Personally I think coaching had just as much to do with it as poor talent the last few years. However Bracillo could be the best guy we've had in here in like ages. Schoen signed a couple guys who are very good pass blockers. JMS was supposedly the best Center in last year's draft and super smart. I think he develops under Carmen. Neal I have no idea. But you hope he can be at least either a half decent RT or half decent RT and Eluemenor can play the other position next to him. No first year players on the line either this year which is a good thing too.

RB: Yes we lost Barkley to the dreaded Eagles. Let's move on. Daboll's offense, is more a passing offense. Singletary is a low key effective Running Back. We got two stabs with Dante Miller and Tracy for an electric one that can be used in an RBBC. Still early, but Gray to me didn't show me much.




DEFENSE


D-Line/Edge: Dexter Lawrence , one of best in business. No more Wink weird DL responsibilities . More traditional DL approach under Bowen. We don't know if Bowen is a product of Vrabel or also an effective DC but in theory his philosophies sound well sound. Burns was a monstrous addition to add to Thibs on other side. Ojulari also is a plus pass rusher but just can't stay on the field. Depth on DL is questionable with Riley and Davidson showing flashes but still very much unknowns. Losing Robinson here hurts a bit but the top end talent could be ferocious. Patterson is a good DL coach who will get to work them in more traditional pass rush and run responsibilities under Bowen (in theory).

LB: Not as premium an impact position but we have a keeper in Okereke now. A heady , smart 3 down sideline to sideline guy who is a still good fit in Bowen's defense. McFadden had some bad missed tackles/reads last year but in the new more straight forward traditional defense of Bowen he should be better this year. Beaver who flashed bigtime might be healthy again. Not a terrible group and with all the sub-packages it will really come down to having one good one which we do and maybe a 2nd one like Beavers or McFadden.

CB: Love Banks and while he may be better in man think he can play some zone too. He will be a 2nd year player now. Problem is there is little veteran presence and not much after Banks. McCloud is down low a decent player but we need more especially when teams base is often 3 and sometimes 4 WR sets. Andru Phillips is interesting but just a rookie. Robinson can't stay healthy. Flott is still kinda an unknown. I thnk if one unit is crying out for a veteran post draft addition it's this one. There are a few options still out there like Gillmore, Peterson and Weatherspoon. One of those options potentially would stabilize the backend.

S: Tyler Nubin if he is everything this front office and scouting department think he is could be the steal of the draft. 13 INTs don't happen by accident in college football. He seems like a perfect fit for a split zone scheme. Extrmely smart and instinctual. Has good size. Pinnock and Belton aren't great but aren't terrible either. Adding Nubin to this mix could make this unit quite dynamic.



Conclusion: Bowen is an unknown. Is he a product of Vrabel only? Is he the Eric Bienemy of DCs? DJ is an unknown too but if healthy, the missing ingredients that QBs normally need to convert talent to actual on field production is apparently there this year.  OL coaching #1, a WR group that could have a true WR1 even though he is a rookie and a half decent cast along the offensive line. Defense has some nice pieces but is still quite young in some areas. Needs a vet presence or two especially at Safety and probably DT.

When you add all this one could argue this team has quite a bit more overall collective talent than the Daboll team in 2022. That team was coached extremely well and miximized it's abilities despite poor OL coaching and talent. That team also won 9 games and a playoff game!  If this team is coached up well offensively and defensively and DJ is a QB that can play well with better parts around him, I could see it surprise a bit.  Daboll in my mind  proved he is capable of coaching up an offense. If he can do more with less and adjust to the parts around him like 2022, I think now with a better OL that won't short circuit what he is trying to do on offense and the #1 WR potentially in the fold this team could be better than it's 2022 predecessor.




Realistic or overly optimistic? 

[MightyGiants]

@Uncle Mickey

This is an excellent summary, well done 


Interesting suggestion about Bellinger getting too heavy.  He seemed to decline year two, but I didn't know why.

One thing to remember about Bowen: the Giants gave him some serious help.  The Giant's long-time DB coach, Jerome Henderson (who is on this 3rd DC), is an excellent coach.   At 54, his window for a DC job may have closed (he did have an interview or two).   They promoted Henderson to DB coach AND passing game coordinator.   I think Henderson will be a valuable asset for Bown.   Plus, the Giants still have the best D-line coach in the game, Andre Patterson.   Bowen may be a bit of an unknown, but it appears between the talented added and the coaching support structure, the Giants did all they could to put him in a position to succeed.

[Bob In PA]

Mick: Nice job, which is much appreciated. Thank you. Bob

[Uncle Mickey]

@Uncle Mickey

This is an excellent summary, well done 


Interesting suggestion about Bellinger getting too heavy.  He seemed to decline year two, but I didn't know why.

One thing to remember about Bowen: the Giants gave him some serious help.  The Giant's long-time DB coach, Jerome Henderson (who is on this 3rd DC), is an excellent coach.   At 54, his window for a DC job may have closed (he did have an interview or two).   They promoted Henderson to DB coach AND passing game coordinator.   I think Henderson will be a valuable asset for Bown.   Plus, the Giants still have the best D-line coach in the game, Andre Patterson.   Bowen may be a bit of an unknown, but it appears between the talented added and the coaching support structure, the Giants did all they could to put him in a position to succeed.

Excellent points on the defensive coaching structure Mighty. Some strong veteran presence to stabilize the group. Wink was a disaster last year and it showed with his defensive performance and it effected all units. Think his ego got the best of him.

[katkavage]

I had to skip through the QB section. You lost me at "flashes of  brilliance." I must have missed those. I've seen some competent play, mostly against bad teams. Never seen any brilliance. The rest of the post is very accurate.

[Uncle Mickey]

I had to skip through the QB section. You lost me at "flashes of  brilliance." I must have missed those. I've seen some competent play, mostly against bad teams. Never seen any brilliance. The rest of the post is very accurate.

I mean saying he has 'flashed' brilliance is not an unfair statement. Rookie year in numerous games (Tampa etc.) and preseason when he was 29-34 passing, Minny playoff game in 2023, Carolina, Colts, Washington multiple times, numerous huge runs throughout his career etc.

 Saying he has consistently displayed it whether due to lack of support around him or a lack of talent himself is another matter entirely.

[Bob In PA]

I had to skip through the QB section. You lost me at "flashes of  brilliance."

kat:     

[B1GBLUE]

really all depends on how the oline shakes out, obvious as it sounds. if they can protect jones, and get even a decent running game going (not getting hit behind LOS 50% of the time), we can be pretty good.

Nabers/robinson/slayton/hyatt can be a really good WR core.

lastly it comes down to whether jones can shake off the PTSD that has been his entire career. If he is shell shocked, you have to find a way to move on. with the weapons we have at WR right now, you cant waste that on a qb that cant get them the ball.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Nice overview. You left out a couple of players I think could still step up and be a factor: Isaiah Simmons, and Trey Hawkins III. I'm not ready to kiss them off. Also, I think the OL will be better under a good OL coach and the two new players. I also think the only reason we signed TEs Jack Stoll and Chris Manhertz, was to use them as a sixth lineman as they are premier blockers, both in pass protection and run blocking

It will be interesting to see how Bricillo works his magic on the line. Regardless, nice writeup and good read

[Gmo11]

I like it.  I've held the view for a while now that the team isn't THAT far off they just are far off at the QB position.  Which is why I was rooting for a QB to be picked at 6 this year.  Nabers is pretty damn good though.

The defense is young and talented.  The offensive line remains to be seen what happens with those guys but the rest of it is solid minus the QB.  So this time next year they should be all in on getting a new QB by any means necessary and should they do that, I think they have a chance to be in on a division title.

[gregf]

Hi Mike. Nice write up. Your knowledge and interactions are a welcome addition to the board!

[Uncle Mickey]

I like it.  I've held the view for a while now that the team isn't THAT far off they just are far off at the QB position.  Which is why I was rooting for a QB to be picked at 6 this year.  Nabers is pretty damn good though.

The defense is young and talented.  The offensive line remains to be seen what happens with those guys but the rest of it is solid minus the QB.  So this time next year they should be all in on getting a new QB by any means necessary and should they do that, I think they have a chance to be in on a division title.

Pass Catchers that has started games in Daniel Jones Career

2019:
Shepard, Engram, Tate, Bennie Fowler, Slayton, Kaden Smith, Cody Latimer

2020:
Shepard, Engram, Slayton, CJ Board, Tate, K Smith, Austin Mack, Toilolo

2021:
Toney, Shepard, John Ross, Board, Golladay, Kyle Rudolph, K Smith, Myrick, Sills

2022:
Richie James, Bellinger, Wan'Dale Robinson, Toney, Golladay, Cager, Sills, Marcus Johnson, Nick Vannett, Myrarick, Hodgins

2023:
Hyatt, Robinson, Waller, Bellinger, Campbell, Hodgins


Which one of these guys was he holding back or defenses were scared of?

Was there any that went to another team and lit it up? Richie James? Toney?

Did he get an in the prime Rudolph? Tate? Golladay? Shepard even?

These are a pretty horrific grouping of skill players if we are being honest.

Throw in a Bobby Johnson coached offensive line and one doesn't need much imagination to see why a QB might not produce much with this team. Again I am not super convinced of DJ being a star but if we are being honest we have to admit he hasn't had much to work with either.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I've said it before, but I think it's worth bringing up again

The biggest changes this year are

1) a lot of coaching changes, in which the new coaches are younger than Daboll and hungry. New DC, New STC, New OLC, new Director of Strength and Conditioning...all with good pedigrees. The problem with older coaches with a ton of experience, is they have a hard time taking orders from a HC that is younger and greener than them. I think that's what happened with Wink. That problem "should" go away - this will be "Daboll's Team" now

2) Like last year's acquisition of Okereke, this year it's Brian Burns. Mixing in a stud with the youngsters. We will be better at forcing the QB to get rid of the ball faster, or he'll have grass stains on the back of his jersey, or have to pick mud out of his face mask. Burns is going to be fun to watch and will probably help Thibs on the other side of the line

3) We're young and getting experience under the rookies' belts, and that's imperative. We've added speed and tenacity all over the defensive backfield, and added a ball hawk in Nubin. We have a significantly upgraded receiver room and some interesting young RBs with fresh legs

4) We won't be so predictable as we are no longer a "Barkley-centric" offense. I love Barkley, but every team we faced had a defensive strategy of stopping Barkley first and foremost. Now they'll have to scheme the entire field when facing us

5) Fingers crossed that we will finally have a season in which we don't lead the league in injuries. Hopefully, Frank Piraino (our new S&C coach) will make a dramatic difference

When Schoen took over, we were a mess. A smithering of NFL quality players mixed in with a lot of mediocre and less-than-mediocre players, and a bench made up of "Street Signings" and other teams' castoffs...no depth at all. We are moving in the right direction, but we have to have patience...which is something fans have little of

[spiderblue43]

How about staying relatively healthy for one year? The Giants are perhaps better..but they haven't found all the parts..yet.

[Uncle Mickey]

I've said it before, but I think it's worth bringing up again

The biggest changes this year are

1) a lot of coaching changes, in which the new coaches are younger than Daboll and hungry. New DC, New STC, New OLC, new Director of Strength and Conditioning...all with good pedigrees. The problem with older coaches with a ton of experience, is they have a hard time taking orders from a HC that is younger and greener than them. I think that's what happened with Wink. That problem "should" go away - this will be "Daboll's Team" now

2) Like last year's acquisition of Okereke, this year it's Brian Burns. Mixing in a stud with the youngsters. We will be better at forcing the QB to get rid of the ball faster, or he'll have grass stains on the back of his jersey, or have to pick mud out of his face mask. Burns is going to be fun to watch and will probably help Thibs on the other side of the line

3) We're young and getting experience under the rookies' belts, and that's imperative. We've added speed and tenacity all over the defensive backfield, and added a ball hawk in Nubin. We have a significantly upgraded receiver room and some interesting young RBs with fresh legs

4) We won't be so predictable as we are no longer a "Barkley-centric" offense. I love Barkley, but every team we faced had a defensive strategy of stopping Barkley first and foremost. Now they'll have to scheme the entire field when facing us

5) Fingers crossed that we will finally have a season in which we don't lead the league in injuries. Hopefully, Frank Piraino (our new S&C coach) will make a dramatic difference

When Schoen took over, we were a mess. A smithering of NFL quality players mixed in with a lot of mediocre and less-than-mediocre players, and a bench made up of "Street Signings" and other teams' castoffs...no depth at all. We are moving in the right direction, but we have to have patience...which is something fans have little of

Was Wink an increasing cancer last year? That was a very strange dynamic to say the least and the defense did not seem like it had a really sound plan many games.