I have been studying Drew Lock

[MightyGiants]

First I was intrigued by this story Matt Waldman told about Lock

"I remember evaluating him [Lock] and saying he looked like a kid who's very talented who at some point in his during his high school career and college career he was probably told by outside quarterback coaches, by coaches in his program things that he could work on to become the best quarterback he could be and get more ready for the NFL. When he came to the league Payton Manning called him up and said anything I can do for you, you let me know. It's easy for me to say as a 54-year-old man in hindsight what I would have liked to have done if I were able to be in Drew Lock's situation at that point because I probably would have said with the wisdom I have now, which is unfair to Drew, but would have been 'can I live in your garage, do chores for you, whatever I need to do and basically spend as much time as possible reviewing film with you and having you reviewing my game and you showing me what conceptually I need to get better at and work and how to work at my craft technically and conceptually to get better.' But from what I was told is that he said thanks and didn't call him back.

"Then, three years later when Teddy Bridgewater was brought to town to compete for his job with him that's when he called Payton Manning."

As it turned out, Lock's father confirmed the accuracy of Waldman's initial collegiate scouting report on Lock.

"His dad told a sideline reporter, I love my son he's a great kid he's a good guy but we've been telling him for years here are little details you need to work on, here are things that you need to get better at when you get to the NFL this is going to be different and he just smiled and nodded, but he didn't work at those things and it's kind of catching up to him. You can see in Seattle when he had some nice games, you kind of get the impression that it's kind of clicked in his head that, oh yeah maybe this is how I need to work. Doesn't make him a bad kid, doesn't make him a bad player, it just means that he had to get better at his job and maybe didn't know how, and maybe it didn't register what was being told to him because it's easy for people to tell you the NFL is a lot tougher.

"I share that because the important point of this is that a lot of players go through this and the NFL doesn't support that well because they force players in immediately."

I went back and studied Lock's scouting reports coming out of college.  He has a strong arm and excelled at the deep ball (his shorter throws less so).  He was compared to Matt Stafford.  Lock has arm talent, but his mechanics are inconsistent, and he has some questionable.

I studied his stats (not particularly impressive).  I read up on his days with the Broncos.  Most faulted Lock as well as the Broncos (for failing to support him or playing to his strengths).

I looked at Lock's stats in Seattle (admittedly a bit of a limited data set with 2 full games and two part games) and compared that to Geno Smith-  Lock's stats were lower than Smith's)

Daboll has a reputation of a reputation for being a bit of a QB whisperer.   Combine that with Lock seeming to understand what it takes to be an NFL QB (he should as he turns 28 in November) there is a chance he could reach the ceiling (a good starter) with the Giants.   A lot will hinge on Lock and his ability to improve his mechanics and decision-making (his TD-to-INT ratio is less than ideal).

I think if Lock is pressed into starter duty there is maybe a 10% chance he could be the next Geno Smith or Goff who finds his groove with a team other than the one that drafted him.

If you are interested in learning more about him, here's a good breakdown by Nick Falato

Link to the Waldman quote

https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/4/5/24121878/nfl-draft-matt-waldman-on-the-2024-qb-class-the-development-fallacy-and-much-more#:~:text=%E2%80%9CI%20remember%20evaluating%20him%20%5BLock,he%20could%20be%20and%20get

[Jclayton92]

The thing with Lock is that he isn't scared to throw the ball down the field. If Jones comes in with his dink and dunk approach yet again while Lock is throwing deep in camp then there might be traction from everyone for him to get the nod.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

The thing with Lock is that he isn't scared to throw the ball down the field. If Jones comes in with his dink and dunk approach yet again while Lock is throwing deep in camp then there might be traction from everyone for him to get the nod.

The thing is, DJ does exactly what he's told to do. Daboll knew that DJ had almost no time for big plays to run their course, so DJ was told to "dink and dunk", which also cuts down on interceptions, while avoiding the never-ending pass rush due to the poor line

Hopefully, getting some decent vets on the offensives line and a new OL coach will allow time for plays to play out as planned. DJ can make long throws, but he has to have time for the receivers to get down the field. It should be real interesting to see what the OL does this season with the changes made

[Uncle Mickey]

I think it's pointless to judge either Lock or DJ right now. I want to see what both look like with a better coached OL that is likely not coming close to giving up a historic 85 sacks and a WR core that now finally has what many think will be an elite WR1.

[TONKA56]

I'm not sure I buy into this whole "Jones is scared to throw deep" narrative. 

[Jclayton92]

I'm not sure I buy into this whole "Jones is scared to throw deep" narrative. 

He only threw the ball 2 times beyond 20 yards the first 14 weeks of his best ever season in 2022.

Jones started 6 games in 2023, Devito started 6 and Taylor started 5 games.

Jones 6 Games started 33 10+ yards, 9 20+ yards, 1 40+ yard

Devito 6 games started 37 10+ yards, 16 20+ yards, 2 40+ yard

Taylor 5 games started 45 10+ yards, 19 20+ yards 4 40+ yard

For reference
Dak had 179 10+ and 62 20+ yards
Purdy had 167 10+ 72 20+ yards
Mayfield had 145 10+ and 60 20+ yard

So even if you gave Jones an extra game he'd still only average 27 which is nothing by comparison.

Jones yard per attempt was 5.7 while Devitos was 6.2, and Taylor's 7.5

For reference

Nick Muellen started 5 games and had a yard per attempt of 8.8 he also had 16 more passes than Jones of 20+ yards in 1 less game.

Easton Stick started 5 games and had a yard per attempt of 6.0 and he had 3 more passes than Jones of 20+ yards in 1 less game.

Clearly shows he has a deep ball problem and you can see in the same time frame both Taylor and Devito threw it deep more and bad back ups in the NFL threw it significantly deeper in 1 less game than Jones.

[TONKA56]

He only threw the ball 2 times beyond 20 yards the first 14 weeks of his best ever season in 2022.

Jones started 6 games in 2023, Devito started 6 and Taylor started 5 games.

Jones 6 Games started 33 10+ yards, 9 20+ yards, 1 40+ yard

Devito 6 games started 37 10+ yards, 16 20+ yards, 2 40+ yard

Taylor 5 games started 45 10+ yards, 19 20+ yards 4 40+ yard

For reference
Dak had 179 10+ and 62 20+ yards
Purdy had 167 10+ 72 20+ yards
Mayfield had 145 10+ and 60 20+ yard

So even if you gave Jones an extra game he'd still only average 27 which is nothing by comparison.

Jones yard per attempt was 5.7 while Devitos was 6.2, and Taylor's 7.5

For reference

Nick Muellen started 5 games and had a yard per attempt of 8.8 he also had 16 more passes than Jones of 20+ yards in 1 less game.

Easton Stick started 5 games and had a yard per attempt of 6.0 and he had 3 more passes than Jones of 20+ yards in 1 less game.

Clearly shows he has a deep ball problem and you can see in the same time frame both Taylor and Devito threw it deep more and bad back ups in the NFL threw it significantly deeper in 1 less game than Jones.

While I appreciate all of this data, it completely misses my point.

The most important question: "Why?"

[DaveBrown74]

I think it's pointless to judge either Lock or DJ right now.

Lock has been in the NFL for four years (28 games), and Daniel Jones has been the Giants starting QB for the last five seasons.

When would there be a point in judging them?

[MightyGiants]

The thing with Lock is that he isn't scared to throw the ball down the field. If Jones comes in with his dink and dunk approach yet again while Lock is throwing deep in camp then there might be traction from everyone for him to get the nod.

Lock has roughly as many INTs as he has TDs.   He could use a little caution.

[MightyGiants]

One thought I had;  maybe some of DJ's fanatical work ethic will rub off on Lock.

[Uncle Mickey]

Lock has been in the NFL for four years (28 games), and Daniel Jones has been the Giants starting QB for the last five seasons.

When would there be a point in judging them?

Hi Dave!

When the Giants offense has something resembling an offensive line that isn't bottom 20% of the entire league in time to pressure and pressure consistency statistics and actually has something resembling a true top WR option.

That should be this year. That was Giants priority one this offseason. They brought in 5 veteran OL. Five. No rookie steep learning curve. They targeted and landed what seems to be an excellent OL coach. Someone who is a few tiers above the likes of Solari, Hunter, Columbo , Gugliemo ,Sale and the venerable Booby Johnson. Most those guys aren't even currently OL coaches or are not highly esteemed at all.

Spent a top 6 pick on a WR who probably ranks pretty close to some of the better blue chip WR to come out in the last 10 years and should be a day 1 high level starter.

Do they have this finally figured out. It seems so.

[MightyGiants]

Lock has been in the NFL for four years (28 games), and Daniel Jones has been the Giants starting QB for the last five seasons.

When would there be a point in judging them?

Jeff,

I am pretty sure Lock and Jones were in the same draft class.  Jones was picked 6th overall and Lock was the 10th pick of round two.

[BluesCruz]

Schoen must have developed temporary "Brainlock" when he picked this guy off the discount rack

[Jclayton92]

While I appreciate all of this data, it completely misses my point.

The most important question: "Why?"

He's never been a deep ball thrower ever. People say stuff like accurate deep ball etc because he only throws deep if he Is wide open so sure he'll be accurate but it's a misrepresentation. Is some on the oline, absolutely but for the most part it is likely a mentaly thing.

[londonblue]

Lock is behind Jones in 'experience' despite being part of the same draft class because of nearly 3 years backing up (including one with no snaps). Questions over Lock's preparation, focus and processing saw him fall to R2 in 2019. They continued in Denver. I suspect his ceiling is a slightly less bonkers Jameis Winston boom/bust type. Can Daboll, Kafka, Tierney improve him? It might be fun finding out.