The path to the postseason for the Giants

[DaveBrown74]

My base case for the Giants is that they'll be similar to last season, perhaps a little bit better. I expect them to be somewhere in the 6 to 8 win range, falling short of the playoffs again.

However, I acknowledge there are multiple ways I could be wrong about the 6 to 8 win range. They could be worse than that, or they could be better. I think that goes without saying.

Here is what I think has to happen for them to be better than 8 wins and to have a realistic shot of making the playoffs:


QB play:

-Jones shows no obvious signs of lingering issues with his knee and is at least 90-95% healthy.

-Jones gets off to a solid start against two weak defenses to start the year, building confidence in the process, and has a solid season, similar to 2022 but with more chunk plays and better red zone play than 2022. This leads to more passing yards and more passing touchdowns than 2022 but with similar (or better) efficiency numbers. Something like 3700/21/9 with a 94 rating and solid rushing production.


O line:

-O line goes from being a bad O line to a middling/functional O line. This happens due to an improved season from Schmitz and at least two of the three main veteran additions (Stinnie, Eleumenor, and Runyan) being clear upgrades to what we had last year. Neal is a wildcard at best, but a better season from him (at any position) would also help. Thomas will also need to stay healthy all year or the vast majority of it and play at his peak capacity.


Offensive skill positions:

-Nabers shows elite talent right from the jump and puts together an impressive rookie season. 1000 yards and 7 TDs or something in that zone. At least one of Wan'Dale and Hyatt steps up in a material way. Slayton/McKenzie/Robinson all contribute as depth guys.

-The running game is serviceable, with Singletary having a solid season and Tracey flashing at times. While the running game won't dazzle, improved line play means it can still get the requisite 3-4 yard runs when they need them and can function well in the passing game.

-We got solid TE play all year, either with one of Bellinger/Johnson materially stepping up or both of them simply being solid players.


Defensive front:

This is clearly the best part of our team. They play like an elite front four all year and stay healthy. Thibodeaux and Burns combine to be a top notch edge rush tandem all season.


Secondary:

Banks takes a big step forward in his second year and proves to be our legit boundary CB1 moving forward. Safety play is solid despite the loss of McKinney. CB2 play is serviceable enough to not be a devastating liability. Slot CB play, where we are fairly deep, is solid for much of the year.


Specials:

This goes from being an area of weakness to a much improved unit and possible area of strength with better coaching and some roster upgrades.


Coaching:

Our coaching staff functions cohesively all year, with no drama and in-fighting, and Daboll focuses more on offensive playcalling with Bowen left to run the defense, with which he does a solid job in his first season as DC.


I am not predicting all of these things will happen, obviously. Nor am I saying every single one needs to happen for us to win 9-plus games. But broadly speaking this is what I think the 2024 Giants season will somewhat look like in the event that we do surprise and make the playoffs.


Which of the above scenarios do you see as realistic, and which seem more like long shots or pipe dreams to you?

[Bob In PA]

You're giving the team a lot of "benefits-of-the-doubt." 

My view comes to the same possible conclusion, but takes a different path.

I see a team that is "maturing" from an over-all age/experience perspective. In other words, merely showing up this year is "taking a step forward." The question is whether they can take the NEXT next step in the same year, or will they be content to just be better than last year.  If they keep their heads down and don't let (hopefully) an early win or two go to their heads, it's not only possible but IMO likely. The schedule is not as brutal as last year and some key other teams have likely grown past their "expiration dates" so I expect a bit of a shake-up over last year's final standings.

Bob

[DaveBrown74]

You're giving the team a lot of "benefits-of-the-doubt." 

My view comes to the same possible conclusion, but takes a different path.

I see a team that is "maturing" from an over-all age/experience perspective. In other words, merely showing up this year is "taking a step forward." The question is whether they can take the NEXT next step in the same year, or will they be content to just be better than last year.  If they keep their heads down and don't let (hopefully) an early win or two go to their heads, it's not only possible but IMO likely. The schedule is not as brutal as last year and some key other teams have likely grown past their "expiration dates" so I expect a bit of a shake-up over last year's final standings.

Bob

Bob,

Just to be clear, I am not "giving" them any of these. I was just laying out what I thought the season might hypothetically look like in the event that they completely surprise me with a much better season than what I am currently predicting.

[Bob In PA]

Bob,

Just to be clear, I am not "giving" them any of these. I was just laying out what I thought the season might hypothetically look like in the event that they completely surprise me with a much better season than what I am currently predicting.

Oops. I see that now. In my case, by comparison, I'm almost expecting what I wrote to occur.  Jones' knee is the primary thing holding me back.  Bob

[DaveBrown74]

Oops. I see that now. In my case, by comparison, I'm almost expecting what I wrote to occur.  Jones' knee is the primary thing holding me back.  Bob

Agree that Jones' knee is an unknown, no matter what the rhetoric is from the team. They're never going to say something like "Jones will be cleared, but he is expected to have limited mobility this season given it is only x months removed from the surgery." They'll never say something like that even if it's true. We'll just have to go off of what we see.

Jones is not Barkley though. Barkley relies way more on explosive bursts, start-and-stop moves, and cutting ability. Jones needs all of that stuff much less. In fact, unless he's really still significantly hurt, in which case he should not play, I don't expect any remnants of this injury to even mildly impact his ability to throw the ball. If his knee is so bad he can't even plant and throw in the pocket, then he won't be out there at all. And that doesn't seem to be anyone's expectation with direct knowledge of the situation.

I think you also make good points about a "maturing" team. Guys like Thibodeaux, McFadden, and Wan'Dale come to mind there. Hopefully that will also apply to our second year players of note like Hyatt, Banks, and Schmitz. This is not to suggest that any of these individuals were immature (with the possible exception of Thibodeaux's full 10 second snow-angel incident while Nick Foles was lying next to him half-dead). More just that they're becoming more experienced and more in tune with the day to day culture of this organization.

[andrew_nyGiants]

For me it's all about the OLINE @ QB.

If we can run the ball and pass pro, while the QB forces the defense to respect the passing game...we will be a playoff team.

If not...it's just another rebuilding year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Philosophers]

My base case for the Giants is that they'll be similar to last season, perhaps a little bit better. I expect them to be somewhere in the 6 to 8 win range, falling short of the playoffs again.

However, I acknowledge there are multiple ways I could be wrong about the 6 to 8 win range. They could be worse than that, or they could be better. I think that goes without saying.

Here is what I think has to happen for them to be better than 8 wins and to have a realistic shot of making the playoffs:


QB play:

-Jones shows no obvious signs of lingering issues with his knee and is at least 90-95% healthy.

-Jones gets off to a solid start against two weak defenses to start the year, building confidence in the process, and has a solid season, similar to 2022 but with more chunk plays and better red zone play than 2022. This leads to more passing yards and more passing touchdowns than 2022 but with similar (or better) efficiency numbers. Something like 3700/21/9 with a 94 rating and solid rushing production.


O line:

-O line goes from being a bad O line to a middling/functional O line. This happens due to an improved season from Schmitz and at least two of the three main veteran additions (Stinnie, Eleumenor, and Runyan) being clear upgrades to what we had last year. Neal is a wildcard at best, but a better season from him (at any position) would also help. Thomas will also need to stay healthy all year or the vast majority of it and play at his peak capacity.


Offensive skill positions:

-Nabers shows elite talent right from the jump and puts together an impressive rookie season. 1000 yards and 7 TDs or something in that zone. At least one of Wan'Dale and Hyatt steps up in a material way. Slayton/McKenzie/Robinson all contribute as depth guys.

-The running game is serviceable, with Singletary having a solid season and Tracey flashing at times. While the running game won't dazzle, improved line play means it can still get the requisite 3-4 yard runs when they need them and can function well in the passing game.

-We got solid TE play all year, either with one of Bellinger/Johnson materially stepping up or both of them simply being solid players.


Defensive front:

This is clearly the best part of our team. They play like an elite front four all year and stay healthy. Thibodeaux and Burns combine to be a top notch edge rush tandem all season.


Secondary:

Banks takes a big step forward in his second year and proves to be our legit boundary CB1 moving forward. Safety play is solid despite the loss of McKinney. CB2 play is serviceable enough to not be a devastating liability. Slot CB play, where we are fairly deep, is solid for much of the year.


Specials:

This goes from being an area of weakness to a much improved unit and possible area of strength with better coaching and some roster upgrades.


Coaching:

Our coaching staff functions cohesively all year, with no drama and in-fighting, and Daboll focuses more on offensive playcalling with Bowen left to run the defense, with which he does a solid job in his first season as DC.


I am not predicting all of these things will happen, obviously. Nor am I saying every single one needs to happen for us to win 9-plus games. But broadly speaking this is what I think the 2024 Giants season will somewhat look like in the event that we do surprise and make the playoffs.


Which of the above scenarios do you see as realistic, and which seem more like long shots or pipe dreams to you?

The mystery one is the OL.  The staff did not have a Plan B for the OL after the Dallas opening season game.  It was a complete failure.  What are they doing differently this offseason?

How is it that six months after their last game Neal is still not healthy?

Unless they have a Plan B at RT that they are willing to implement, do they let it be a turnstile for them?

What good is AT if he cant stay healthy?

[Bob In PA]

The mystery one is the OL.  The staff did not have a Plan B for the OL after the Dallas opening season game.  It was a complete failure.  What are they doing differently this offseason?

How is it that six months after their last game Neal is still not healthy?

Unless they have a Plan B at RT that they are willing to implement, do they let it be a turnstile for them?

What good is AT if he cant stay healthy?

Phil: This year, I am certain the Giants will play better than last year (barring injuries).

Andrew Thomas' injury last year occurred early and greatly contributed to OL chaos over-all.

Like any other team (even the great Brady teams) the Giants need a bit of good luck, and then (importantly) need to be poised to build on it and take advantage. They're IMO due some luck, so I have fingers crossed.

Bob

[DaveBrown74]

The mystery one is the OL.  The staff did not have a Plan B for the OL after the Dallas opening season game.  It was a complete failure.  What are they doing differently this offseason?

New (and hopefully much improved) coach and some veteran additions that include players who have played at a solid to good level on other teams. On paper this line looks deeper than last year's.

How is it that six months after their last game Neal is still not healthy?

I'm done being surprised about the propensity for hurt guys to stay hurt on this team. I have no faith in the Giants' ability to keep its players healthy.

As for Neal himself, the guy is just simply a bust unless he stunningly proves otherwise. Thankfully though, the Giants are not nearly as dependent on him this year as they were last year. Eleumenor can play RT at a solid level, and they seemingly have more solid guards on this team this year than they did last year. So if Neal stinks again or can't get well, or both, it's less of a disaster for the Giants than it was last year.

Unless they have a Plan B at RT that they are willing to implement, do they let it be a turnstile for them?

They definitely have a plan B at RT this year in Eleumenor. I frankly think he should probably be plan A, but even if he's plan B, as long as they don't continue to live in denial with Neal and pray that he turns things around while he continues to be a disaster every week, I think they have a solid solution. Eleumenor was totally solid at RT for the Raiders (under Bricilo) last year. So there is no reason to think he won't be able to do the same thing here, if/when called upon.

What good is AT if he cant stay healthy?

Not much. He needs to be healthy this year for this O line to have any chance of taking a material step forward. Again, with our track record of keeping our players healthy, I can't say I'm oozing with confidence that that will happen with Thomas. It's more hope than confidence.

[nb587]

I think the path to the playoffs is a little different than most takes here.  For one, I dont think Dallas and Philly are all that strong, not nearly as as strong as in the past.  I think the way the Giants beat them badly in a game Philly needed last year means something.  Dallas run game is definitely weaker.  Two, I think Daboll made mistakes last year that young coaches make that are correctable.  Third, the injury bug might just come back to the mean and the Giants do have more depth in certain places that were lacking last year. 

[DaveBrown74]

I think the path to the playoffs is a little different than most takes here.  For one, I dont think Dallas and Philly are all that strong, not nearly as as strong as in the past.  I think the way the Giants beat them badly in a game Philly needed last year means something.  Dallas run game is definitely weaker.  Two, I think Daboll made mistakes last year that young coaches make that are correctable.  Third, the injury bug might just come back to the mean and the Giants do have more depth in certain places that were lacking last year. 

Interesting take on Dallas and Philly. Since we're talking about the Giants' path to the playoffs, are you suggesting the Giants might be able to win the NFC East? Or do you just mean they may go 2-2 or 3-1 against those teams instead of 1-3?

[nb587]

Interesting take on Dallas and Philly. Since we're talking about the Giants' path to the playoffs, are you suggesting the Giants might be able to win the NFC East? Or do you just mean they may go 2-2 or 3-1 against those teams instead of 1-3?

It seems that the Giants generally went 0-4 against them & both of these teams generally win
3-4 division games locked in virtually every year. I'm not so sure it repeats this year. 

Do you think the win against Philly means anything given they wanted the game and we had nothing to play for and we beat their starters pretty badly?  Does that tell you anything at all?

[DaveBrown74]

It seems that the Giants generally went 0-4 against them & both of these teams generally win
3-4 division games locked in virtually every year. I'm not so sure it repeats this year. 

Do you think the win against Philly means anything given they wanted the game and we had nothing to play for and we beat their starters pretty badly?  Does that tell you anything at all?

I never make broad, sweeping conclusions about any team based on a single game. That same Giants team lose three games in a row before that game (including to the Eagles).

The final game in which the Giants beat them was in the midst of a major Eagles collapse. There was talk of the coach being fired, and they were just a complete mess.

Does it tell me anything at all? I guess it reminds me that any team can beat any other team on any given day in this league, although I knew that before that game.

[Philosophers]

Can someone answer this question for me?  When was the last time the Giants had an outstanding offense but a really bad defense?

[DaveBrown74]

Can someone answer this question for me?  When was the last time the Giants had an outstanding offense but a really bad defense?

To save myself some time, I asked ChatGPT, and this is what came back:


"The last time the New York Giants had a top ten offense and a bottom ten defense in the same season was in 2015. During that year, their offense ranked eighth in the league, while their defense ranked thirtieth in total yards allowed. The Giants had a prolific offense led by quarterback Eli Manning, but their defensive struggles contributed to their six-win season, missing the playoffs."