WalterFootball: New York Giants to go 4-13 this season.

[DaveBrown74]

Don't shoot the messenger!


https://walterfootball.com/offseason2024nyg.php

[MightyGiants]

Don't shoot the messenger!


https://walterfootball.com/offseason2024nyg.php

I think it's fair to say that most on this board feel the Giant's fortunes go the way of the O-line.  So I have to say this was sort of depressing


Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
ranking the NFL's best offensive lines:

1. Lions
2. Falcons
3. Browns
4. Eagles
5. Chiefs
6. Jets
7. Packers
8. Colts
9. Bengals
10. Vikings
11. Broncos
12. Bears
13. Rams
14. Texans
15. Chargers
16. Ravens
17. 49ers
18. Raiders
19. Bucs
20. Steelers
21. Panthers
22. Bills
23. Jaguars
24. Saints
25. Dolphins
26. Titans
27. Commanders
28. Cowboys
29. Seahawks
30. Patriots
31. Cardinals
32. Giants

*2024 predicted rankings

full analysis & logic:

https://t.co/nV2IdaUHCx


If the Giants' O-line isn't significantly improved, that 4-13 record will be an accomplishment

I feel about this year's Giants like I did in 2022.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants are a playoff team nor would I be surprised if they were in contention for the top pick in the draft.  Far too many variables and unproven issues.

[DaveBrown74]

If the Giants' O-line isn't significantly improved, that 4-13 record will be an accomplishment

I feel about this year's Giants like I did in 2022.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants are a playoff team nor would I be surprised if they were in contention for the top pick in the draft.  Far too many variables and unproven issues.

Fair enough Rich.

These horrible O line projections all seem to assume that Schmitz will remain terrible this year and that Neal is a confirmed bust. Both of those assumptions may well prove true, and they may even be the base case. I'm more convinced that Neal is a bust than I am that Schmitz is, although the degree to which Schmitz was bad last year, especially considering he is already 25 years old, is concerning to say the least.

One point made in the WalterFootball piece that I raised here a month or two ago and got a lot of pushback on was that Runyan may not be nearly as good as everyone thinks or hopes he will be. Green Bay is a smart and successful O line franchise, and they were content to let him go. Moreover his grades over multiple seasons (I know PFF isn't the be-all-end-all) simply aren't good. I get that his pass blocking grades are better than his run blocking grades, which I guess is a good thing at least for our QB, but I'm still not convinced this guy is going to be materially better than Glowinski or players of that caliber. The evidence that that will be the case is simply not convincing.

I do like Eleumenor though. I think he's a nice addition, and I like that he has already had success with our now current O line coach. Walter's comment that the Giants failed to get competition for Neal is misguided, in my opinion. Eleumenor is that competition, and I still feel that way even if he starts the season at guard. If Neal is once again dreadful, I think Eleumenor will be inserted at RT, perhaps pretty quickly. Walter seems to miss this in his piece.

Still, it's hard to make a strong case that this O line will suddenly be good, or even decent, and I agree that that is sobering. Of course, I also have my own concerns about Jones (in a vacuum) only being a middling starting NFL QB.

As a totally separate point, Walter was pretty rough on Deonte Banks. I feel he is selling him short, at least from the point of view that he was only a rookie last year, and rookie corners often struggle a bit and still end up being good players. I personally liked what I saw from Banks last year. Were there struggles and things to clean up? Absolutely. But I felt like I was watching a talented player who is more likely than not to blossom into at least a good, if not very good, NFL boundary corner.

[Bob In PA]

Don't shoot the messenger!

https://walterfootball.com/offseason2024nyg.php

DB: Giants certainly COULD go 4-13 this yr but Walter Football's worst case scenario is highly unlikely. Bob

[DaveBrown74]

DB: Giants certainly COULD go 4-13 this yr but Walter Football's worst case scenario is highly unlikely. Bob

I agree with you Bob.

There are enough holes and question marks on this team to believe that they COULD go 4-13 if most or all of the question marks pan out negatively, but to list that as the base case seems bold.

While I agree with the point Rich made earlier that last year's team was worse than 6-11, I do think they had a good offseason, and while I don't have much faith in our training/medical staff, I don't see how their health can realistically get meaningfully worse than it was last year.

So I have them more in the 7 win camp, which is about where they happen to be priced.

[LennG]

Have I been asleep or when did we lose Simmons?

[DaveBrown74]

Have I been asleep or when did we lose Simmons?

We didn't. Where do you see that?

[LennG]

We didn't. Where do you see that?

In the article, under losses for the Giants, he says Isaiah Simmons OLB.

[DaveBrown74]

In the article, under losses for the Giants, he says Isaiah Simmons OLB.

You are absolutely right. Clearly an error on his part.

[MightyGiants]

I give the site credit for posting their prior predictions.   The reality is their prediction isn't much better than a random number generator


Projection: 4-13 (4th in NFC East)

2023 Projection: 9-8. 2023 Actual Result: 6-11.
2022 Projection: 5-12. 2022 Actual Result: 9-7-1.
2021 Projection: 7-10. 2021 Actual Result: 4-13.
2020 Projection: 11-5. 2020 Actual Result: 6-10.
2019 Projection: 5-11. 2019 Actual Result: 4-12.
2018 Projection: 6-10. 2018 Actual Result: 5-11.
2017 Projection: 7-9. 2017 Actual Result: 3-13. =
2016 Projection: 7-9. 2016 Actual Result: 11-5.

[DaveBrown74]

I give the site credit for posting their prior predictions.   The reality is their prediction isn't much better than a random number generator


Projection: 4-13 (4th in NFC East)

2023 Projection: 9-8. 2023 Actual Result: 6-11.
2022 Projection: 5-12. 2022 Actual Result: 9-7-1.
2021 Projection: 7-10. 2021 Actual Result: 4-13.
2020 Projection: 11-5. 2020 Actual Result: 6-10.
2019 Projection: 5-11. 2019 Actual Result: 4-12.
2018 Projection: 6-10. 2018 Actual Result: 5-11.
2017 Projection: 7-9. 2017 Actual Result: 3-13. =
2016 Projection: 7-9. 2016 Actual Result: 11-5.

I enjoy the WalterFootball site for a number of reasons, but not so much for predictive value. I think they do a very good job forecasting the draft (Charlie Campbell is documented as basically the most accurate draftnik of anyone known), and I think they do a pretty solid job ranking the various players.

I also think they do a good job aggregating all the local beat reporting for the 32 teams during camp and use their various "stock up" and "stock down" arrows around that.

In-season in their game predictions, they also do a nice job of staying on top of injuries and looking at the games from that angle.

Like anyone, they're not the be-all-end-all of making any sort of predictions, but for a site where you don't have to part with a penny of your money to get all the content, I think they add some value personally. I know many think they're useless but I enjoy reading a few parts of it for a few reasons, including the above.

[MightyGiants]

I enjoy the WalterFootball site for a number of reasons, but not so much for predictive value. I think they do a very good job forecasting the draft (Charlie Campbell is documented as basically the most accurate draftnik of anyone known), and I think they do a pretty solid job ranking the various players.

I also think they do a good job aggregating all the local beat reporting for the 32 teams during camp and use their various "stock up" and "stock down" arrows around that.

In-season in their game predictions, they also do a nice job of staying on top of injuries and looking at the games from that angle.

Like anyone, they're not the be-all-end-all of making any sort of predictions, but for a site where you don't have to part with a penny of your money to get all the content, I think they add some value personally. I know many think they're useless but I enjoy reading a few parts of it for a few reasons, including the above.

Jeff,

Walter Football is a site I use.  I agree with most of what you said.  I just think that predictions tend to be a fool's errand.   I actually appreciate and enjoy the breakdown, and I certainly don't want my commentary about the accuracy of the prediction to take away from their solid efforts to break down the team and the changes.

I think that, overall, their takes tend to be pessimistic or worst-case, but as a Giants fan, I am all too familiar with worst-case.

[MightyGiants]

While I use and generally like Walter Football, this draft grade is a prime example of draft grades I consider utterly useless.  Some try to honestly grade a draft by perceived value filling needs and improving teams.  Some simply grade teams by how closely they viewed the draft compared to how the grader viewed the draft.  Prime example:


70. Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky – D Grade

The Giants needed to continue to bolster their dreadful offense, whether it was via offensive linemen or receivers. I get adding a cornerback, another problematic area, but they could have drafted Andru Phillips later. Phillips was a falling prospect, according to Charlie Campbell's recent stock report.

[Painter]

What you think, what you anticipate, what you expect matters. Certainly, it matters to you and, perhaps, to fellow Giants fans. But why embarrass yourself by playing pawn to media's self-serving interests? Do any of them actually care, one way or the other?

I'm not sure how others here feel but I am not, and never will be, comfortable playing link in some third-party's chain jerking game.

Cheers!

[DaveBrown74]

Jeff,

Walter Football is a site I use.  I agree with most of what you said.  I just think that predictions tend to be a fool's errand.   I actually appreciate and enjoy the breakdown, and I certainly don't want my commentary about the accuracy of the prediction to take away from their solid efforts to break down the team and the changes.

I think that, overall, their takes tend to be pessimistic or worst-case, but as a Giants fan, I am all too familiar with worst-case.

That is fair, and I agree about predictions and the inherent silliness of it. It doesn't really bother me when people attempt to make them though. But, like you, that is not why I read the site from time to time.