Daniel Jones' much-ridiculed $160M contract might be a Giant bargain

[MightyGiants]

A bargain.

Laugh if you want, but that is the way the much-maligned contract looks just 16 months after Jones signed it. Maybe it wasn't at the time, when a quarterback with just one good season was given one of the richest contracts in football. But thanks to a run of new contracts among NFL starting quarterbacks, Jones' $40 million per year average is only tied for 14th most at his position. And it'll drop a notch lower as soon as Dak Prescott gets his new deal that will surely be worth about $60 million per year.

There are now eight quarterbacks making more than $50 million per year. That list includes Trevor Lawrence, who got a five-year, $275 million deal from the Jaguars after throwing for just 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season despite his career record of 20-30. And it includes Jordan Love, who got a four-year, $220 million extension from the Packers after his first season as a starter.

In fairness to them, Jones' best season — 2022 when he threw for 3,205 yards, 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions while running for 708 yards and seven touchdowns — pales in comparison to their best years. And Jones can't possibly be compared to most of other top-paid quarterbacks on the list.

But that's the point. He doesn't really have to be, because he's not paid like an elite quarterback. He's now paid far more like Derek Carr ($37.5 million per year) than Joe Burrow ($55 million) or even Jalen Hurts ($51 million). In fact, if you take out Aaron Rodgers — whose deal (and it's $37.5 million average) is an anomaly since he took a paycut to help facilitate his trade to the Jets — Jones is at the bottom of the pay scale for experienced starters, just ahead of Baker Mayfield ($33.3 million) and Geno Smith ($25 million).

That's not elite company. In fact, financially, the bar to justify his salary is mediocrity.

And that seems pretty achievable based on the last season when he was healthy and his offensive line wasn't constantly getting him killed.

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[T200]

A few folks here mentioned that.

It will only be a bargain if he stays healthy and performs at a top 5 level this season.

I'm rooting like hell for him because he's the only shot we got this season. Let's hope he has a chip on his shoulder and plays aggressively.

[MrGap92]

Only a bargain if he plays better than 14/15th best by a couple slots at least

[EDjohnst1981]

Rather than looking at the raw numbers, I would be interested in seeing figures around the % of the cap that the contract ate up at the time of signing and compare that to the his contemporaries.

With the ever increasing cap, it's not the raw figures that matter.

But the true measure of how much the Giants value the 'bargain' or not will be at the end of the season when he has his contract re-done or he is released.

If he's re-done, his done well and the Giants will have performed well, which is pleasing all round.

[H-Town G-Fan]

I don't really agree. There's basically no real middle-market for QBs in the NFL because you're not competitive with those guys. You either are riding a rookie QB and his pittance contract or paying for elite play. The middle ground is where you're not getting value and inhibiting team building. And that's precisely where the Giants find themselves--lacking in talent (though better than under Gettleman).

[MightyGiants]

Rather than looking at the raw numbers, I would be interested in seeing figures around the % of the cap that the contract ate up at the time of signing and compare that to the his contemporaries.

With the ever increasing cap, it's not the raw figures that matter.

But the true measure of how much the Giants value the 'bargain' or not will be at the end of the season when he has his contract re-done or he is released.

If he's re-done, his done well and the Giants will have performed well, which is pleasing all round.

The percentage of camp for a given year is a meaningless measure because GMs use bigger contracts as a way to move cap money from different seasons.  You might have heard Mike Lombardi being less than intellectually honest when he mentioned the DJ's percentage of the game.  Yes, this year, DJ's percentage is 18.4%.  The reason that is so high is because it was only 6.7% of the cap last year.

[EDjohnst1981]

The percentage of camp for a given year is a meaningless measure because GMs use bigger contracts as a way to move cap money from different seasons.  You might have heard Mike Lombardi being less than intellectually honest when he mentioned the DJ's percentage of the game.  Yes, this year, DJ's percentage is 18.4%.  The reason that is so high is because it was only 6.7% of the cap last year.

Valid point, thanks.

No, I didn't listen to Lombardi. Really looking forward to how the season pans out.

[Giant Jim]

Saying Jones pay is in the middle of the 32 starting QB's is misleading. How many are on rookie contracts that limit their pay? In other words, where does Jones stand compared to QB's that are beyond their rookie contracts? His rank on the pay list is 14th-16th out of how many starting QB's past their rookie contracts? Don't forget, this is the start of only the 2nd year of that pact with a team friendly out if he doesn't play well.

If he plays well and the team keeps him for 2 more seasons, the contract becomes a bargain.

[AZGiantFan]

It was pretty much predictable. 

And if they had a training camp like this year's and the team was ready enough to play that they hadn't nearly gotten him killed, and they protected him as well as they had the prior year (30 sacks in 6 games vs. 44 in 16 games) he may well have not gotten hurt and played close to his 2022 season's level, it would be even more of a bargain. 

[MrGap92]

Saying Jones pay is in the middle of the 32 starting QB's is misleading. How many are on rookie contracts that limit their pay? In other words, where does Jones stand compared to QB's that are beyond their rookie contracts? His rank on the pay list is 14th-16th out of how many starting QB's past their rookie contracts? Don't forget, this is the start of only the 2nd year of that pact with a team friendly out if he doesn't play well.

If he plays well and the team keeps him for 2 more seasons, the contract becomes a bargain.

No rookie contract is going to be higher than his deal

[MrGap92]

It was pretty much predictable. 

And if they had a training camp like this year's and the team was ready enough to play that they hadn't nearly gotten him killed, and they protected him as well as they had the prior year (30 sacks in 6 games vs. 44 in 16 games) he may well have not gotten hurt and played close to his 2022 season's level, it would be even more of a bargain. 

2022 Stats at his price is not anywhere close to a bargain, he needs alot more production

A bargain would indicate production > pay grade, expectations need to be higher for it to be considered such.

[DaveBrown74]

Jones' contract made him a top 10 highest paid QB at the time it was signed. To me that is what is relevant and why the transaction has been justifiably criticized. The Giants decided to do that, and that is an unalterable fact.

Yes, QB contracts are on a steep annual incline in value, so if you wait a year or two and say "hey, Jones actually isn't as highly paid relative to the league as he used to be", that's a fairly transparent trick in my opinion. Everyone can see what the person who is making that claim is doing.

Moreover, even if one does believe it's perfectly fair to look at this subject that way and always constantly calibrate to the present, Jones' level of play last year (the most important year for any present discussion) was downright wretched, so in no way is his contract a bargain on any level.

The other point, which H-Town made and with which I firmly agree, is that the properly valued QB market is somewhat bifurcated, and then you have this no-man's land part of the market that Jones is now in.

To explain what I mean by the above: you have your clearly elite QBs who are making premium money. Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, etc. Then you have QBs on rookie contracts and also your lower paid journeyman vet types like Gardner Minshew, Flacco (now), Mayfield last year, etc. Then you have this middle-ground market where mediocre-ish QBs are paid less than the absolute elite but are nonetheless paid numbers that are still too high for the value they add versus the value that guys like Flacco and 2023 Mayfield add for much less money. Jones is very much in that latter group.

In short, yes, he is not paid as much as a fair number of QBs are, but he's still paid way too much for the value he adds. You can replicate or exceed the value Jones adds with much cheaper free agent veterans. That reality was on full display last year, and I firmly believe it was also on display in 2022, but just not as egregiously.

[jgrangers2]

I don't really agree. There's basically no real middle-market for QBs in the NFL because you're not competitive with those guys. You either are riding a rookie QB and his pittance contract or paying for elite play. The middle ground is where you're not getting value and inhibiting team building. And that's precisely where the Giants find themselves--lacking in talent (though better than under Gettleman).

Came here pretty much to say this. You either have a difference maker that you can build around, a rookie contract that you allows you to allocate cap space elsewhere or you're stuck in no man's land. The Giants are in no man's land.

While Jones' AAV may look a little more palatable with all these other contracts, it doesn't change the fact that he has the 4th highest cap hit in the NFL this season. Realistically, the best part of his contract is that it wasn't backloaded like most QB contracts so the Giants have a relatively cheap out after this year, but the fact that they felt the need to do that should kind of explain why the contract is bad as well.

[Stringer Bell]

Jones' contract made him a top 10 highest paid QB at the time it was signed. To me that is what is relevant and why the transaction has been justifiably criticized. The Giants decided to do that, and that is an unalterable fact.

A rare occasion when I disagree with you DB, as I think this is a short-sighted view of things and doesn't reflect how GMs view these types of situations.

An "at the time"-only analysis ignores so many important data points that GMs factor into major contract decisions - impending salary cap increases, the state of the broader market for a given position, the contract status of other players who play that position, etc.

Myself and others pointed out basically the day after DJ signed that there were at least a half dozen QBs who very soon would be signing new deals that would put DJ squarely in the middle of the pack. That, coupled with an increasing salary cap, were 100% factored into the contract by Schoen and the Giants.

Now, I don't disagree that it's still fair to question the contract. Just not on the primary basis of an "at the time" reaction.

[DaveBrown74]

A rare occasion when I disagree with you DB, as I think this is a short-sighted view of things and doesn't reflect how GMs view these types of situations.

An "at the time"-only analysis ignores so many important data points that GMs factor into major contract decisions - impending salary cap increases, the state of the broader market for a given position, the contract status of other players who play that position, etc.

Myself and others pointed out basically the day after DJ signed that there were at least a half dozen QBs who very soon would be signing new deals that would put DJ squarely in the middle of the pack. That, coupled with an increasing salary cap, were 100% factored into the contract by Schoen and the Giants.

Now, I don't disagree that it's still fair to question the contract. Just not on the primary basis of an "at the time" reaction.

It's really a matter of choice of how one chooses to look at it. When the Chiefs gave Mahomes his contract, they made him the highest paid player in the league. Did they know that in a few years that wouldn't be the case? Of course they did. He was still made the league's highest player. I'm not suggesting the Giants didn't realize that in a short period of time Jones would no longer be top 10. It's obvious that they did. But that's also obvious with every big contract given out with every player.

The bottom line here is that there is absolutely no universe in which Jones' contract is a "bargain." The rest is really semantics.