If DJ Becomes Top 12

[Philosophers]

I think 4000 yards passing, 30 TDs receiving, and under 12 or so INTs is the minimum for me. Even so, one year would not be enough, given the history prior to it plus the injury history as well.

Sounds good to me as well.

[MrGap92]

passing not receiving TDs, typo.

[PSUBeirut]

I think 4000 yards passing, 30 TDs receiving, and under 12 or so INTs is the minimum for me. Even so, one year would not be enough, given the history prior to it plus the injury history as well.

There were only 4 QBs that met that criteria last year.  Seems a bit stringent if we're trying to get to top 12 in the league. 

[Philosophers]

There were only 4 QBs that met that criteria last year.  Seems a bit stringent if we're trying to get to top 12 in the league. 

It's the TDs I think.  Say 4,000 yards but drop TDs to 25 or 26.

[LennG]

Passing for that many yards could also mean many meaningless yards if we are always playing from behind.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and I'll be more than happy to eat some crow on this but if Jones finishes above top 20 I'll eat that crow
He has everything any average QB could ever want. They basically stacked the deck for him to succeed. He still is what he always has been an average middle of the pack QB who will have a great day here and there so we say he has ,"potential," yet he still will never be above that.

[AZGiantFan]

I like yards but a combo of metrics would work as well.  Top 12 in 2023 would be Sam Howell at 3,924 yards.  I think in today's NFL, a QB needs to be throwing for 4,000 yards per season.

OK, thanks.

[AZGiantFan]

Passing for that many yards could also mean many meaningless yards if we are always playing from behind.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and I'll be more than happy to eat some crow on this but if Jones finishes above top 20 I'll eat that crow
He has everything any average QB could ever want. They basically stacked the deck for him to succeed. He still is what he always has been an average middle of the pack QB who will have a great day here and there so we say he has ,"potential," yet he still will never be above that.

We won't know how stacked the deck is until we see how the revamped OL plays, and how healthy his weapons stay.

[H-Town G-Fan]

Top-12 via efficiency (similar to 2022) is not enough. He needs volume production, especially now that the running game is going to be a work-in-progress and he's got plenty of weapons to work with.

[DaveBrown74]

Top-12 via efficiency (similar to 2022) is not enough. He needs volume production, especially now that the running game is going to be a work-in-progress and he's got plenty of weapons to work with.

This.

You can get top 12-14 efficiency stats with a risk averse, dink and dunk style approach that still nets you in the bottom third of the league in passing offense. We got that in 2022. Personally, for $40mm a year I want more than that as a fan. If I were happy with that I'd be looking to spend $10mm-$18mm.

We need a YPA higher than 7 (no excuses on this, and he's never done it), at least 3800 passing yards, and at least 25 passing TDs with a minimum of 14 more passing TDs than INTs for this to even begin to become a discussion. And those are not very high bars by the way. Not if you are intending to contend in this league. If you're content with mediocrity then it's a different story.

[PSUBeirut]

This.

You can get top 12-14 efficiency stats with a risk averse, dink and dunk style approach that still nets you in the bottom third of the league in passing offense. We got that in 2022. Personally, for $40mm a year I want more than that as a fan. If I were happy with that I'd be looking to spend $10mm-$18mm.

We need a YPA higher than 7 (no excuses on this, and he's never done it), at least 3800 passing yards, and at least 25 passing TDs with a minimum of 14 more passing TDs than INTs for this to even begin to become a discussion. And those are not very high bars by the way. Not if you are intending to contend in this league. If you're content with mediocrity then it's a different story.

Here's the problem with combining stats and making strict minimums- the position is so much more complex than this.  I just can't get onboard with prerequisite stats to even start a discussion on how well DJ (or ANY QB) is playing or not playing.

I downloaded the QB stats last year and put all of your stat minimums in a filter to see where QBs landed.  There were only 7 that meet your not very high bar:  Tua T, Jared G, Dak P, Brock P, Jordan Love, and so interestingly- Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield.  That's it.

You know who didn't?  Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, yadda yadda yadda a lot of good to decent QBs after that. 

[DaveBrown74]

Here's the problem with combining stats and making strict minimums- the position is so much more complex than this.  I just can't get onboard with prerequisite stats to even start a discussion on how well DJ (or ANY QB) is playing or not playing.

I downloaded the QB stats last year and put all of your stat minimums in a filter to see where QBs landed.  There were only 7 that meet your not very high bar:  Tua T, Jared G, Dak P, Brock P, Jordan Love, and so interestingly- Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield.  That's it.

You know who didn't?  Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, yadda yadda yadda a lot of good to decent QBs after that. 

Fine. I get your point and it's fair. I would just note that all of those other QBs have put up great seasons before. Jones has not.

Production matters, and stats are just a measure of production. I think people sometimes mystify stats too much. Yes, there is always context around them, and you make a fair point about the flawed logic of setting minimums. But the fact remains that for his cost to be worth it to this franchise, Jones needs to be a lot more productive than he has ever been. I accept that setting actual hard thresholds is not perfectly fair, but however we choose to define it, I'd like to think we can all agree that he needs to be much more productive than he's ever been to be a genuine top 12 QB.

[T200]

Fine. I get your point and it's fair. I would just note that all of those other QBs have put up great seasons before. Jones has not.

Production matters, and stats are just a measure of production. I think people sometimes mystify stats too much. Yes, there is always context around them, and you make a fair point about the flawed logic of setting minimums. But the fact remains that for his cost to be worth it to this franchise, Jones needs to be a lot more productive than he has ever been. I accept that setting actual hard thresholds is not perfectly fair, but however we choose to define it, I'd like to think we can all agree that he needs to be much more productive than he's ever been to be a genuine top 12 QB.

Why do you have cost as a factor? Wouldn't his on-field performance be the same regardless of what he's getting paid?

Personally, my stance is that the contract has been done for 2 years and all I care about is collecting wins. This franchise has sucked for over a decade and we need better production from Jones AND the line in front of him.

He needs to go out and win games. I don't care if he's on a rookie salary, vet minimum, or getting 40 million a year. I care about wins.

[ralphpal1]

Even if The Giants are behind by 30 a game
Do you think D Jones would be able to throw for over 300 yrds

[todge]

Joe Montana said he hates QB statistics. He said just watch the games and see if the QB is in command of the offense. There's no question that was the case in 2022 where DJ ran the offense that Daboll wanted given limitations in the WR talent and the OL.

Unfortunately in today's fantasy football world, we get too hung up on statistics to evaluate every player's worth.


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[Ed Vette]

Joe Montana said he hates QB statistics. He said just watch the games and see if the QB is in command of the offense. There's no question that was the case in 2022 where DJ ran the offense that Daboll wanted given limitations in the WR talent and the OL.

Unfortunately in today's fantasy football world, we get too hung up on statistics to evaluate every player's worth.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Says the man who never passed for 4000 yards, threw more than 31 TDs, with a completion % of 63, throwing to Jerry Rice, the greatest Receiver of all time. He played in a different league back then, where Defenses ruled and RB's were paramount to a solid Offense. If Montana played in this generation, his stats would be off the charts.