If DJ Becomes Top 12

[todge]

Says the man who never passed for 4000 yards, threw more than 31 TDs, with a completion % of 63, throwing to Jerry Rice, the greatest Receiver of all time. He played in a different league back then, where Defenses ruled and RB's were paramount to a solid Offense. If Montana played in this generation, his stats would be off the charts.

Montana made his comments based on the following:

He had a stretch of six games where he didn't throw a TD pass. Apparently in each game, the WR was tackled near the goal line on several instances. The running back got credit for the TD with the QB getting bupkus. The press then started printing headlines that Montana was slipping.

His point is that stats can be misleading especially when evaluating QBs. Drops are considered incompletions, poor or wrong  routes resulting in incompletions are assigned to the QB.

In the world of fantasy football where stats are everything, Montana makes a good point IMO. Command of the offense should be the most important element.


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[sxdxca38]

Montana made his comments based on the following:

He had a stretch of six games where he didn't throw a TD pass. Apparently in each game, the WR was tackled near the goal line on several instances. The running back got credit for the TD with the QB getting bupkus. The press then started printing headlines that Montana was slipping.

His point is that stats can be misleading especially when evaluating QBs. Drops are considered incompletions, poor or wrong  routes resulting in incompletions are assigned to the QB.

In the world of fantasy football where stats are everything, Montana makes a good point IMO. Command of the offense should be the most important element.


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Todge

I completely agree with you.

If Daniel Jones throws for 3,200 Yards but the Giants go 16-1, and are the best team in the league, and win the Super Bowl, would anybody actually complain?

[MrGap92]

Todge

I completely agree with you.

If Daniel Jones throws for 3,200 Yards but the Giants go 16-1, and are the best team in the league, and win the Super Bowl, would anybody actually complain?

No but they would wake up the next morning

[sxdxca38]

No but they would wake up the next morning

Yeah once again this is not called for

[H-Town G-Fan]

No but they would wake up the next morning

Ah yes, that storied list since 2000 of QBs winning Superbowls with just around 3k yards... oh wait, its basically Trent Dilfer (all-time great defense) and Nick Foles (a special situation coming in for Wentz and getting hot). So basically, that's not a recipe for success. The modern NFL is pretty clear on the model to win.

[MrGap92]

Ah yes, that storied list since 2000 of QBs winning Superbowls with just around 3k yards... oh wait, its basically Trent Dilfer (all-time great defense) and Nick Foles (a special situation coming in for Wentz and getting hot). So basically, that's not a recipe for success. The modern NFL is pretty clear on the model to win.

I'd probably add Flacco to that list, who probably falls somewhere inbetween those two, but otherwise agree with this.

Truly great QBs are who win the vast majority of SBs, and they don't blossom in year 6+

[DaveBrown74]

Why do you have cost as a factor? Wouldn't his on-field performance be the same regardless of what he's getting paid?

Personally, my stance is that the contract has been done for 2 years and all I care about is collecting wins. This franchise has sucked for over a decade and we need better production from Jones AND the line in front of him.

He needs to go out and win games. I don't care if he's on a rookie salary, vet minimum, or getting 40 million a year. I care about wins.

To answer the first question, cost is always a factor for me with any player in this sport, because cost is all about opportunity cost. If you're overpaying for any player, you're denying yourself the ability to spend more on other players.

If you are spending $40mm on production you can acquire for $10m or $15m, then that's $25m-$30m you're depriving yourself of spending on other positions. That's the only reason I brought it up. I would say that about any player who is not performing at a level that is in line with what he is costing against the cap.

[Jclayton92]

Todge

I completely agree with you.

If Daniel Jones throws for 3,200 Yards but the Giants go 16-1, and are the best team in the league, and win the Super Bowl, would anybody actually complain?

But that isn't happening, and if Jones throws for 3200 and we still go 16-1 then what is the need for Jones? If we went 16-1 despite him wouldn't that be even more reason to let him go vs retain him? Seems like an argument against Jones and not for him that you are making.

[Philosophers]

But that isn't happening, and if Jones throws for 3200 and we still go 16-1 then what is the need for Jones? If we went 16-1 despite him wouldn't that be even more reason to let him go vs retain him? Seems like an argument against Jones and not for him that you are making.

Doesn't it depend on the context for the 3,200 yards?  Say he goes 4-0 in 4th Quarter comebacks with a Y/A of 8.0 and a Y/C of 12.0 and only a 63% completion rate that would suggest to me he is taking shots and getting the ball downfield which would be a good thing.

[DaveBrown74]

I will agree that if the team goes 16-1, they probably won't make all that many changes.

Does anyone think this team is going 16-1?

[MrGap92]

I will agree that if the team goes 16-1, they probably won't make all that many changes.

Does anyone think this team is going 16-1?

I think just as many people that would complain if it actually happens, also believe there is even a chance it actually goes down in the reality we live in.

[kartanoman]

Doesn't it depend on the context for the 3,200 yards?  Say he goes 4-0 in 4th Quarter comebacks with a Y/A of 8.0 and a Y/C of 12.0 and only a 63% completion rate that would suggest to me he is taking shots and getting the ball downfield which would be a good thing.

You read my mind when mentioning # of fourth quarter comebacks (NOTE: assuming those comebacks translated into wins).

In other words, you want a competitor who lifts the players around him to higher levels in situations it is needed to bring back the team from behind or keep the opponent at arm's length.

Statistics are nice and all; however, for #8 to be deemed successful, these seem relevant and important in my opinion:

1. Lost Man-Games due to Injury (NOTE: objective = 0)
2. Time of Possession Avg. on Offense (NOTE: objective > 30 min/game)
3. TD/Turnover ratio (e.g. > 5|1 ratio)
4. (Offensive) Points per Game (e.g. > 20)
5. TD/FG Ratio (e.g. > 2|1 ratio)
6. # of Comeback Wins (e.g. > or = to three)

If you want to put yards in after #6, be my guest, but if you had a QB (and offense) that could achieve the arbitrary goals I entered against each criteria, I would imagine there would be few complaints, no?

Query your thoughts, please.

Peace!

[kingm56]

But that isn't happening, and if Jones throws for 3200 and we still go 16-1 then what is the need for Jones? If we went 16-1 despite him wouldn't that be even more reason to let him go vs retain him? Seems like an argument against Jones and not for him that you are making.

It's not happening, and anyone who thinks it is, hasn't been paying attention to recent trends.  The new reality is, with few exceptions, teams with prolific passing attacks (i.e. top 10) are playing in, and winning Super Bowls.  When I say prolific passing attacks, I am referring to passing yards and TDs. Consider the Super Bowls played this decade:   

2020   Mahomes* 4037/#10  26/#5  vs  Garoppolo   3978/#12 27/#5   
2021   Brady    4633/#3   40/#2  vs  Mahomes   4740/#2    28/#4   
2022   Stafford 4886/#3   41/#2  vs  Burrow   4611/#6    34/#8   
2023   Mahomes    4839/#4   37/#4  vs  Hurt**   3144/#16 16/#23   
2024   Mahomes    4183/#6   27/#8  vs  Purdy   4280/#5    31/#3   

*Only played in 14 of 16 games
**Only played 13 of 17 games   

1. Every SB QB over the past 5 seasons has finished in the top 10 in Passing Yards and TDs
2. 4 of 5 QBs who made, but failed to win a SB, finished in the top 10 in Passing Yards and/or TDs
   **Jalen Hurts missed 4 games; his 17-game average would have placed him the top 10
   **Phili finished 9th in total passing yards
3. This trend is precisely the reason no team is trying to build around a game manager QB and strong running game
4. In the modern era, you need a dynamic QB to compete for SBs; you also need an offense fueled by passing production.   

[Philosophers]

It's not happening, and anyone who thinks it is, hasn't been paying attention to recent trends.  The new reality is, with few exceptions, teams with prolific passing attacks (i.e. top 10) are playing in, and winning Super Bowls.  When I say prolific passing attacks, I am referring to passing yards and TDs. Consider the Super Bowls played this decade:   

2020   Mahomes* 4037/#10  26/#5  vs  Garoppolo   3978/#12 27/#5   
2021   Brady    4633/#3   40/#2  vs  Mahomes   4740/#2    28/#4   
2022   Stafford 4886/#3   41/#2  vs  Burrow   4611/#6    34/#8   
2023   Mahomes    4839/#4   37/#4  vs  Hurt**   3144/#16 16/#23   
2024   Mahomes    4183/#6   27/#8  vs  Purdy   4280/#5    31/#3   

*Only played in 14 of 16 games
**Only played 13 of 17 games   

1. Every SB QB over the past 5 seasons has finished in the top 10 in Passing Yards and TDs
2. 4 of 5 QBs who made, but failed to win a SB, finished in the top 10 in Passing Yards and/or TDs
   **Jalen Hurts missed 4 games; his 17-game average would have placed him the top 10
   **Phili finished 9th in total passing yards
3. This trend is precisely the reason no team is trying to build around a game manager QB and strong running game
4. In the modern era, you need a dynamic QB to compete for SBs; you also need an offense fueled by passing production.   

Matt -I suspect Jim Harbaugh will try to build a strong running game based offense and think he may be successful.

[kingm56]

Matt -I suspect Jim Harbaugh will try to build a strong running game based offense and think he may be successful.

Joe - He has Justin Herbert.  If the SD makes the SB, I bet Herbert will be in the top 10 of most passing stats.  Harbaugh can make all the statements he wants; I consider actions, and SD gave Herbert $263M, which IMO, makes him the focal point of the offense.  Still, I concur Harbaugh will put more resources in the RB than most teams.   

For anyone, who was the last true running team to win a SB?  Maybe the 2013 Seahawks?  Regardless, it's been more than a decade, which makes sense when you consider the 2012/13 rule changes to prevent concussions and improve safety (e.g. eliminate DB-WR contact beyond 5 yards, defenseless WR rules, and protect the QB) These rule changes fundamentally changed the game; today, teams pass far more than they run, as the rules favor the former.