NGT - Fantasy Football

[Philosophers]

Well, I had my ESPN FF draft last night. ESPN gave me a C for my draft, but I think that is because their evals base it almost entirely on last year's production.  As I am a big college football fan, I often emphasize rookies I happen to like a lot whom I think may be in ideal situations and provide huge upside.

QBs
Patrick Mahommes
Jordan Love - very good last year and think he will jump even more in production

RBs
Isaiah Pacheco - he seems to be firmly entrenched as RB1 for Chiefs and has been productive
De'Von Achane - he was huge last year but had limited play due to injury. 
Raheem Mostert - rotates with Mostert.  Had 18 TDs last year.  Don't expect the same but like him as well.
Tyjae Spears - Derrick Henry is now gone for Titans so maybe he gets more involved.  Good pass catcher.

WRs
Tyreek Hill
Zay Flowers - Great rookie production.  Think he jumps more.  He is Ravens WR1 IMHO.
Jayden Reed - good production for Packers in rookie year but he will split catches with Christian Watson.
Terry McLaurin - Had 4 1,000 yards + with mediocre QBs. Now with Jayden Daniels, who knows?  Redskins traded Dotson I think so now McLaurin is clear WR1 for them.
Ladd McConkey - Chargers lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  They have nobody for Justin Herbert and Chargers traded up to get him.  He's a faster Pacua Nakua (sp?).  Hope for similar production.
Xavier Worthy - I think Worthy teams up with Mahommes to be his dynamic wideout he has not had since Tyreek Hill.  He's been good in preseason camps. 

TEs
Brock Bowers - rookie playing behinc Michael Mayer.  Raiders traded up to draft him.  Think they play him.
Isaiah Likely - when Mark Andrews is out, Likely is big TE producer.  Andrews is getting older.

K
Harrison Butler - top placekicker on a huge volume offense of Chiefs

D/STs
49ers -

Feel free to roast me if you like.

[sooners56]

Were you throwing darts blindfolded??? I don't see how you win more than 2 games with that sorry excuse for a roster!!!

[MrGap92]

14 man league?

[Philosophers]

Were you throwing darts blindfolded??? I don't see how you win more than 2 games with that sorry excuse for a roster!!!

Really?  That bad?

[Philosophers]

14 man league?

10 team league.  We had $200 to bid for our players.

[Hadron]

Mahomes/Love - I think Love is primed for a big year.

Pacheco? Love him and his situation. The rest? It's hard to know which of Mosert/Achane is going to boom each week (and both are not know for durability). Spears is in the same situation with Pollard.

Hill? No comments needed. There's a lot of gambling through the rest of your WR group. Reed, Flowers, and Mclaurin are good players. Reed falls into a mix with the GB WR group that's got no alpha. Rookie WRs? Boom or bust. It takes time for them to ramp up.

Bowers is a beast but will see growing pains. Likely is a backup.

I'm not a big fan of Lamar Jackson as a passing QB but I could be wrong. I'm not sure what's going to happen in Miami as Tua was pretty unimpressive the second half of last year.

[Philosophers]

Mahomes/Love - I think Love is primed for a big year.

Pacheco? Love him and his situation. The rest? It's hard to know which of Mosert/Achane is going to boom each week (and both are not know for durability). Spears is in the same situation with Pollard.

Hill? No comments needed. There's a lot of gambling through the rest of your WR group. Reed, Flowers, and Mclaurin are good players. Reed falls into a mix with the GB WR group that's got no alpha. Rookie WRs? Boom or bust. It takes time for them to ramp up.

Bowers is a beast but will see growing pains. Likely is a backup.

I'm not a big fan of Lamar Jackson as a passing QB but I could be wrong. I'm not sure what's going to happen in Miami as Tua was pretty unimpressive the second half of last year.

Normally I flex a WR but can see doing both Mostert as flex with Achane and Pacheco as RBs then choose among the other non-Hill WRs depending on matchup.

[DaveBrown74]

Joe,

My thoughts:

QBs
Patrick Mahommes
Jordan Love - very good last year and think he will jump even more in production

Impossible to give this anything other than an A+.

Mahomes kind of sucked for me last year (by his standards), but he's the best QB in the league and Reid is as good a play designer/caller as there is. I think Worthy will be a big add there. Good chance he's the best QB in the league this year again.

As a backup Love is excellent. He has real talent. I think he's a viable fantasy starter this year who has upside.

RBs
Isaiah Pacheco - he seems to be firmly entrenched as RB1 for Chiefs and has been productive
De'Von Achane - he was huge last year but had limited play due to injury. 
Raheem Mostert - rotates with Mostert.  Had 18 TDs last year.  Don't expect the same but like him as well.
Tyjae Spears - Derrick Henry is now gone for Titans so maybe he gets more involved.  Good pass catcher.

Love Pacheco. He's a workhorse back now and will get a ton of touches. Became a good pass catcher despite not really being that when he came into the league. Huge fan and I'm hoping to get him in the second round of my league.

The rest of your backfield is a big gamble on Achane. If he hits, you could win your league, especially with your QB situation. Funnily, I had him last year, and I felt like a genius when he started going off, but then he was constantly hurt. Will that happen again? If it does, you're kind of in trouble at the RB2 position. Mostert obviously benefits in theory if Achane gets hurt, but Mostert is 32 now and the Fish just drafted the Wright from the Vols. He could easily get the touches if something happens to Achane.

Spears is the definition of JAG.

Grade: B (with A+ upside or C- downside depending on Achane's health)

WRs
Tyreek Hill
Zay Flowers - Great rookie production.  Think he jumps more.  He is Ravens WR1 IMHO.
Jayden Reed - good production for Packers in rookie year but he will split catches with Christian Watson.
Terry McLaurin - Had 4 1,000 yards + with mediocre QBs. Now with Jayden Daniels, who knows?  Redskins traded Dotson I think so now McLaurin is clear WR1 for them.
Ladd McConkey - Chargers lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  They have nobody for Justin Herbert and Chargers traded up to get him.  He's a faster Pacua Nakua (sp?).  Hope for similar production.
Xavier Worthy - I think Worthy teams up with Mahommes to be his dynamic wideout he has not had since Tyreek Hill.  He's been good in preseason camps. 

I'm good with your receivers.

As great as Hill is, I worry a tiny bit about the 30 years old threshold with a guy who is so dependent on elite explosiveness. One of these years he'll be a little less explosive, and that will mean a clear decline in the numbers. Will that definitely happen this year? Of course not. Is he going to be as good as he was last year two years from now? I really doubt it. I feel like we're right at the end of the line with him as far as being at the absolute top of his greatness. I suspect he'll probably still be great this year, but at 30 you have to start being careful with these guys. Certainly next year I'd be careful.

I don't know on Jaden Reed. I know everyone is high on him this year, but I wonder if Christian Watson will bounce back from the injuries and end up being the true dog in that aerial offense.

Love Worthy. I see him racking up a lot of yards in that offense on the jet sweeps and other plays Reid loves.

I like McConkey medium term but I think Josh Palmer is the receiver to draft in that offense. I think he's very underrated.

Flowers I had last year. Talented guy but Lamar doesn't throw that much and Andrews gets a lot of the balls he does throw. I still think this is a fine pick though as Flowers is very skilled.

Puka is awesome. He may normalize a little this year but this guy is a seriously good player.

Overall: I think you have more than enough at this position to field three quality receivers every week. Grade: B+.

TEs
Brock Bowers - rookie playing behinc Michael Mayer.  Raiders traded up to draft him.  Think they play him.
Isaiah Likely - when Mark Andrews is out, Likely is big TE producer.  Andrews is getting older.

Risky to shove your chips in on a rookie TE. Bowers happens to be an elite talent, so you may be fine here, but I probably would have grabbed a starter as a TE2 instead of a backup if I went the Bowers route.

Grade: C+

K
Harrison Butler - top placekicker on a huge volume offense of Chiefs

D/STs
49ers -

No complaints here. Grade: A


Overall:

Think you did a very nice job. I don't really agree with the more scathing reviews in this thread, and I'd be honest about it if I did. Your potential weak spots are RB2 and TE. If those positions don't work out you're going to have a hard time making the playoffs in your league. If they do, you could win it.

Grade: A-

[PSUBeirut]

Man I love that fantasy season is back in gear!!!  I've got our big 12 team superflex auction league's draft this weekend and I'm psyched. 

Philosophers - I think you did a good job with your draft, for sure.  You've got multiple guys I'm high on also.  In the league I just mentioned I was able to keep Jordan Love for $0 since I picked him up early on waivers last year (we get 2 keepers- my other is Trey McBride at $0, another guy I stashed early).  I like Jayden Reed but am more intrigued with Doubs in that offense.  Terry McLaurin burned me last year so I just can't draft him again, even if his situation has improved with Dotson leaving and Jayden D appearing to be a potential stud.

What are you guys' thoughts on Nabers?  In my leagues I feel like he'll be drafted above his ADP and I'm not sure it's a great bet, with the uncertainty we have at QB and OL.  I think everyone's gonna expect me to draft him this weekend and I'm just not as high on his output this year as I think most are. 

[DaveBrown74]

Man I love that fantasy season is back in gear!!!  I've got our big 12 team superflex auction league's draft this weekend and I'm psyched. 

Philosophers - I think you did a good job with your draft, for sure.  You've got multiple guys I'm high on also.  In the league I just mentioned I was able to keep Jordan Love for $0 since I picked him up early on waivers last year (we get 2 keepers- my other is Trey McBride at $0, another guy I stashed early).  I like Jayden Reed but am more intrigued with Doubs in that offense.  Terry McLaurin burned me last year so I just can't draft him again, even if his situation has improved with Dotson leaving and Jayden D appearing to be a potential stud.

What are you guys' thoughts on Nabers?  In my leagues I feel like he'll be drafted above his ADP and I'm not sure it's a great bet, with the uncertainty we have at QB and OL.  I think everyone's gonna expect me to draft him this weekend and I'm just not as high on his output this year as I think most are. 

I'm ridiculously high on Nabers so I'm probably in the camp of people who will draft him higher than perhaps I should. The 4th round type ADP you're seeing on the mock sites seems unrealistic to me. I think he'll go in the third or perhaps even the late second round in my league. Is that justified? I wouldn't take him in the second but I'll consider him in the late third (I'm picking 8th) if he's there. I think he won't be.

I'm not hell-bent on getting him, but I do think Daboll will feed him the ball quite a bit. The red zone opporutnities worry me with him, which is why I'm not willing to go too crazy, but I do think he can deliver something like 75-1150-7 as a rookie.

[Philosophers]

Guys - I love all your comments - good and bad.  Know I am gambling especially at RB and all my rookies.  I am definitely high risk/high reward.

One guy I liked but was worried I would not have enough money for Worthy is Keon Coleman.  Elite QB and he may be his #1 target.

Thank you for all your time reviewing it.  Good luck on your picks.

[PSUBeirut]

Guys - I love all your comments - good and bad.  Know I am gambling especially at RB and all my rookies.  I am definitely high risk/high reward.

One guy I liked but was worried I would not have enough money for Worthy is Keon Coleman.  Elite QB and he may be his #1 target.

Thank you for all your time reviewing it.  Good luck on your picks.

One guy I have circled in bold I really want is Khalil Shakir.  It's nuts that his ADP is so low as the only guy on the Bills who has any previous connection with Josh Allen.  Even if he ends up being the WR2 he's going to way overperform where he's being drafted right now.

[sooners56]

Really?  That bad?

Of course I was kidding! Looks fairly solid to me.

[DaveBrown74]

One guy I liked but was worried I would not have enough money for Worthy is Keon Coleman. 

I'm not convinced on Coleman. He's obviously going to a great situation so he'll have a big opportunity, but having watched him a bit I'm not convinced he can get consistent separation from NFL defenders. We shall see.

I love Kincaid on the Bills. I think that's the guy you want in that passing offense personally.

[EDjohnst1981]

I'm not convinced on Coleman. He's obviously going to a great situation so he'll have a big opportunity, but having watched him a bit I'm not convinced he can get consistent separation from NFL defenders. We shall see.

I love Kincaid on the Bills. I think that's the guy you want in that passing offense personally.

The Bills have a distinct lack of depth at WR. I'm looking to pick up Collins on the waiver wire in my Dynasty League. I think he could have a decent season with Allen. He didn't do much at the Falcons last year but he had a nice 2022 at the Raiders - I think he replaces Gabe Davis pretty well.