NGT - Fantasy Football

[Philosophers]

Of course I was kidding! Looks fairly solid to me.

Ha, fooled me. 

[Hadron]

What are you guys' thoughts on Nabers?  In my leagues I feel like he'll be drafted above his ADP and I'm not sure it's a great bet, with the uncertainty we have at QB and OL.  I think everyone's gonna expect me to draft him this weekend and I'm just not as high on his output this year as I think most are. 

I'm in the same camp as you regarding Nabers. Doesn't matter how good the receiver is if the QB is...questionable (either due to health or ability). I think Nabers might get stuck in a similar situation as Drake London last year with Desmond Ridder where limitations at the QB spot hurt his upside.

[MrGap92]

Well, I had my ESPN FF draft last night. ESPN gave me a C for my draft, but I think that is because their evals base it almost entirely on last year's production.  As I am a big college football fan, I often emphasize rookies I happen to like a lot whom I think may be in ideal situations and provide huge upside.

QBs
Patrick Mahommes
Jordan Love - very good last year and think he will jump even more in production

RBs
Isaiah Pacheco - he seems to be firmly entrenched as RB1 for Chiefs and has been productive
De'Von Achane - he was huge last year but had limited play due to injury. 
Raheem Mostert - rotates with Mostert.  Had 18 TDs last year.  Don't expect the same but like him as well.
Tyjae Spears - Derrick Henry is now gone for Titans so maybe he gets more involved.  Good pass catcher.

WRs
Tyreek Hill
Zay Flowers - Great rookie production.  Think he jumps more.  He is Ravens WR1 IMHO.
Jayden Reed - good production for Packers in rookie year but he will split catches with Christian Watson.
Terry McLaurin - Had 4 1,000 yards + with mediocre QBs. Now with Jayden Daniels, who knows?  Redskins traded Dotson I think so now McLaurin is clear WR1 for them.
Ladd McConkey - Chargers lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  They have nobody for Justin Herbert and Chargers traded up to get him.  He's a faster Pacua Nakua (sp?).  Hope for similar production.
Xavier Worthy - I think Worthy teams up with Mahommes to be his dynamic wideout he has not had since Tyreek Hill.  He's been good in preseason camps. 

TEs
Brock Bowers - rookie playing behinc Michael Mayer.  Raiders traded up to draft him.  Think they play him.
Isaiah Likely - when Mark Andrews is out, Likely is big TE producer.  Andrews is getting older.

K
Harrison Butler - top placekicker on a huge volume offense of Chiefs

D/STs
49ers -

Feel free to roast me if you like.

10 team league.  We had $200 to bid for our players.

Gotcha, that makes sense, but I just feel that with the pool of players some other teams are probably stacked.

But your QB situation and defense is obviously elite, Pacheco imo is a Top 12 back, Hill is a Top 3 WR, and I think McLaurin with Daniels is going to be a pick that exceeds ADP.

Having both Dolphins RBs is good, so whoever runs away with more carries, you have him. If he gets hurt, you are still fine. If Achane distances a solid bit from Mostert and can get 60-65% of the carries, then this teams potential skyrockets. 50/50 makes it more concerning.

I am not high on Flowers, but he is a #1 WR for a good team, I feel they are going to pound it away with Henry, and he is realistically the #4 weapon on the offense, but he should have some boom weeks.

I think if you hit with one of the rookies, and the top end talent plays to their level, you should be fine, if multiple hit, even better.

If he is available and you have a bench spot, I would suggest taking a shot on Brian Thomas Jr also. Not sure if you have a bench or what FA options look like here.

[Philosophers]

Gotcha, that makes sense, but I just feel that with the pool of players some other teams are probably stacked.

But your QB situation and defense is obviously elite, Pacheco imo is a Top 12 back, Hill is a Top 3 WR, and I think McLaurin with Daniels is going to be a pick that exceeds ADP.

Having both Dolphins RBs is good, so whoever runs away with more carries, you have him. If he gets hurt, you are still fine. If Achane distances a solid bit from Mostert and can get 60-65% of the carries, then this teams potential skyrockets. 50/50 makes it more concerning.

I am not high on Flowers, but he is a #1 WR for a good team, I feel they are going to pound it away with Henry, and he is realistically the #4 weapon on the offense, but he should have some boom weeks.

I think if you hit with one of the rookies, and the top end talent plays to their level, you should be fine, if multiple hit, even better.

If he is available and you have a bench spot, I would suggest taking a shot on Brian Thomas Jr also. Not sure if you have a bench or what FA options look like here.

Guys - you have convinced me to drop Likeley (Raven's TE2) and pick up Dalton Schultz, the TE1 for the Houston Texan to improve my TE production.  Texans have a lot of WR options for Stroud but a starter is more important than a great backup.

[bamagiantfan]

Guys - you have convinced me to drop Likeley (Raven's TE2) and pick up Dalton Schultz, the TE1 for the Houston Texan to improve my TE production.  Texans have a lot of WR options for Stroud but a starter is more important than a great backup.

Drop TE-Likely and pick up another WR. You don't need two TEs unless you are going to Flex one occasionally, and you are obviously not going to do that with Likely unless Andrews gets hurt. There will be plenty of "serviceable" TEs on waivers if Bowers gets hurt, including guys like Hockenson and Higbee coming back off PUP lists later in the season. Guys like Wan'Dale, Theilan, and Demario Douglas probably were not drafted in a 10-team league and they could wind up leading their teams in receptions. Pairing Joshua Palmer (the only significant receiver left for the Chargers) with McConkey could be useful, if he is still available in your league. He will be their #1 to start the season.   

Good Luck!

[Philosophers]

Drop TE-Likely and pick up another WR. You don't need two TEs unless you are going to Flex one occasionally, and you are obviously not going to do that with Likely unless Andrews gets hurt. There will be plenty of "serviceable" TEs on waivers if Bowers gets hurt, including guys like Hockenson and Higbee coming back off PUP lists later in the season. Guys like Wan'Dale, Theilan, and Demario Douglas probably were not drafted in a 10-team league and they could wind up leading their teams in receptions. Pairing Joshua Palmer (the only significant receiver left for the Chargers) with McConkey could be useful, if he is still available in your league. He will be their #1 to start the season.   

Good Luck!

Thank you.  Great idea.  Picked up Cooper.

[bamagiantfan]

Thank you.  Great idea.  Picked up Cooper.

Better Yet! 

[DaveBrown74]

I'm in the same camp as you regarding Nabers. Doesn't matter how good the receiver is if the QB is...questionable (either due to health or ability). I think Nabers might get stuck in a similar situation as Drake London last year with Desmond Ridder where limitations at the QB spot hurt his upside.

Ridder is worse than a healthy Jones and Arthur Smith is an inferior offensive mind to Brian Daboll (in my opnion). And Nabers is WAY better than Drake London (also in my opinion).

Very good receivers can put up good seasons with mediocre or worse QBs. Happens all the time. See last year:

DJ Moore: 96 catches, 1364 yards, 8 TDs. (Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent)

Mike Evans: 79/1255/13 (Baker Mayfield)

Amari Cooper: 72/1250/5 (PJ Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Joe Flacco)

Goerge Pickens: 63/1140/5 (Kenny Pickett)

[Philosophers]

For you fantasy players, I wanted to share with you that I was doing some research and learned the following about Ladd McConkey which may make him a fantasy WR target for you (I drafted him).

First Josh Palmer is still recovering from a knee injury suffered last year.

Throughout preseason camp, Chargers reported that McConkey has had the least amount of drops (only 2) while also being considered the best route runner and generating the greatest separation among all their WRs.

I like his prospects.

[DaveBrown74]

One player I like a lot this year and am targeting in my leagues is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I think Tyler Lockett is aging and showed signs of decline last year. New OC Ryan Grubb is big on throwing to the slot. The new HC (Zac Robinson) is a McVay guy and will be aware of JSN's talent. I think he breaks out in a big way this year.

Another guy who I think is going way later than he should is Tank Dell. He's small and admittedly may be injury prone, but he impressed in a big way last year when he was on the field. I think he can vastly outproduce his ADP.

Very interesting on McConkey. I did like him at UGA. Herbert's plantar fascia injury makes me a little nervous about that offense though. I had plantar fasciitis a few years ago and it was a nightmare. Took almost six months to go away. I'm sure they'll take measures to deaden the pain/inflammation for games but I can't see how this isn't going to impact his season a bit.

[EDjohnst1981]

We had our 10 team Fantasy Draft last night. This is what I ended up with:

Rd1: CeeDee Lamb
Rd2: Josh Allen
Rd3: Kyren Williams
Rd4: Joe Mixon
Rd5: Malik Nabers
Rd6: Raheem Mosert
Rd7: Kyle Pitts
Rd8: George Pickens
Rd9: Tony Pollard
Rd10: Jerome Ford
Rd11: Brandon Aubery
Rd12: Khali Shakir
Rd13: Justin Herbert
Rd14: Giants D
Rd15: Nick Chubb

A few things surprised me here:

- The lack of quality wideouts on the Chargers and his injury meant Herbert fell toward the end of the draft.
- I wouldn't normally take a QB early but when Allen was there late in the 2nd round, I pulled the trigger as I also picked at the top of the 3rd.
- Players were scared of Chubb's injury but picking up Ford in the 10th was absolute value. The fact that Chubb can sit on my IR until he's ready is fine with me.
- I was torn between Pitts v Kincaid at TE1, I kinda wanted Kincaid but everything I read had Pitts graded higher.
- Deligthed to have got Nabers in the 5th - again, that's hopefully a value pick.

I think it's a decent squad, the NFL ranked it as a B, which I think is a bit low.

Tear it apart, guys.

We play 1QB, 2 x RB, 2 x WR, 1 Flex, TE, Kicker and D.

[DaveBrown74]

We had our 10 team Fantasy Draft last night. This is what I ended up with:

Rd1: CeeDee Lamb
Rd2: Josh Allen
Rd3: Kyren Williams
Rd4: Joe Mixon
Rd5: Malik Nabers
Rd6: Raheem Mosert
Rd7: Kyle Pitts
Rd8: George Pickens
Rd9: Tony Pollard
Rd10: Jerome Ford
Rd11: Brandon Aubery
Rd12: Khali Shakir
Rd13: Justin Herbert
Rd14: Giants D
Rd15: Nick Chubb

A few things surprised me here:

- The lack of quality wideouts on the Chargers and his injury meant Herbert fell toward the end of the draft.
- I wouldn't normally take a QB early but when Allen was there late in the 2nd round, I pulled the trigger as I also picked at the top of the 3rd.
- Players were scared of Chubb's injury but picking up Ford in the 10th was absolute value. The fact that Chubb can sit on my IR until he's ready is fine with me.
- I was torn between Pitts v Kincaid at TE1, I kinda wanted Kincaid but everything I read had Pitts graded higher.
- Deligthed to have got Nabers in the 5th - again, that's hopefully a value pick.

I think it's a decent squad, the NFL ranked it as a B, which I think is a bit low.

Tear it apart, guys.

We play 1QB, 2 x RB, 2 x WR, 1 Flex, TE, Kicker and D.

Looks solid to me Ed. What I like about it is no apparent weak spots. I think I'd have preferred Kincaid to Pitts myself, but maybe that's just because I owned Pitts last year and he drove me crazy. Clearly with a vastly improved QB and a new OC, his prospects are greater. I just like Kincaid a lot this year because the Bills got rid of not just Diggs but Gabe Davis too, so Kincaid figures to have a huge role. I also like Shakir for that reason in PPR leagues, whom you have.

I think since your team has no real weak areas, you should be right in the hunt. I guess if you wanted one piece of constructive criticism, it is that your team doesn't appear to have tons of guys who have a lot of upside relative to draft position. Obviously guys like Lamb and Allen have sky high ceilings, but those are in the price. A guy like Ford, while a very sensible pick, is not going to be this year's version of Kyren Williams. And I tend to doubt Pollard will deliver a huge year given it appears to be s roughly even workshare there between him and Spears.

Still, when I look at a lot of people's teams, there are often entire positions where the person is really weak and clearly in need of upgrades. I don't see that on your team. In fact, you'll likely be in a position to do a trade or two at some point if you want to. And even if you don't, I see you as 100% a top half team in your league and likely in the hunt for the playoffs.

[Gman329]

OK, guys, I have my 14 team draft tomorrow and I am NOT prepared!  Just can't get into doing the research, crunching numbers and making lists, which I used to love doing in the past.

Everyone knows the top guys at every position but Fantasy leagues are won by the lower draft picks overperforming.

So give me a few names to look for in the middle/late rounds.  I've already culled Khalil Shakir from PSU's post, Phil's Ladd McConkey and Dave B's Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

Any further suggestions along those lines? 

[Philosophers]

OK, guys, I have my 14 team draft tomorrow and I am NOT prepared!  Just can't get into doing the research, crunching numbers and making lists, which I used to love doing in the past.

Everyone knows the top guys at every position but Fantasy leagues are won by the lower draft picks overperforming.

So give me a few names to look for in the middle/late rounds.  I've already culled Khalil Shakir from PSU's post, Phil's Ladd McConkey and Dave B's Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

Any further suggestions along those lines? 

Here are mine:

QB - Jordan Love - had a great year last season and is a rising star.  Has two emerging WRs in Watson and Reed

WR - Xavier Worthy - in camp he has been very good and Mahommes said he wants to throw it more downfield.  Worthy is already penciled in as a starter.

WR - Ladd McConkey - i follow the Chargers due to Harbaugh.  Coaches said Ladd already runs the best routes, had the fewest drops and had the most separation from CBs in routes of all their WRs.  Josh Palmer is returning from a knee injury.

RB - DeVon Achane - explosive RB who put up crazy points last year but got injured.  With Mostert aging I think Achane gets more time.  McDaniel even lined up Achane at WR last year on plays just to have him on the field.

WR - Terry McLaurin - Skins no longer have two of their starting WRs with only McLaurin left.  He was productive without Jayden Daniel.  If you like Daniel he should have a nice season.

WR -Keon Coleman - Josh Allen lost Diggs and Davis.  Coleman was having a good camp.  He's big and aggressive going up for ball.

[EDjohnst1981]

Looks solid to me Ed. What I like about it is no apparent weak spots. I think I'd have preferred Kincaid to Pitts myself, but maybe that's just because I owned Pitts last year and he drove me crazy. Clearly with a vastly improved QB and a new OC, his prospects are greater. I just like Kincaid a lot this year because the Bills got rid of not just Diggs but Gabe Davis too, so Kincaid figures to have a huge role. I also like Shakir for that reason in PPR leagues, whom you have.

I think since your team has no real weak areas, you should be right in the hunt. I guess if you wanted one piece of constructive criticism, it is that your team doesn't appear to have tons of guys who have a lot of upside relative to draft position. Obviously guys like Lamb and Allen have sky high ceilings, but those are in the price. A guy like Ford, while a very sensible pick, is not going to be this year's version of Kyren Williams. And I tend to doubt Pollard will deliver a huge year given it appears to be s roughly even workshare there between him and Spears.

Still, when I look at a lot of people's teams, there are often entire positions where the person is really weak and clearly in need of upgrades. I don't see that on your team. In fact, you'll likely be in a position to do a trade or two at some point if you want to. And even if you don't, I see you as 100% a top half team in your league and likely in the hunt for the playoffs.

Cheers, Dave. I was pretty pleased with the draft.

I agree that there's not much upside to a lot of these guys, and I am lacking in depth when injuries come along, so I'll have to ride the waiver wire and keep my fingers crossed.

I do disagree with Ford. Whilst unlikely to replicate Williams, I am expecting a big season for him for a couple of reasons:

1. Watson still cannot move the ball as QB, so the Browns will run a lot.
2. He put up okay numbers when Chubb went down. The 4 rushing TDs are nothing to write home about, but the 5 receiving ones make him more of a dual-threat guy.
3. He's had the full offseason with the ones and at least the first six weeks of the season.

The downside is that teams have had a year to plan for him.

It'll be interesting to return to this thread at the close of the Fantasy season and might even be worth the occasional check-in mid season ala the other NGT popular threads.

Good luck everyone.