NGT - Fantasy Football

[VanPelt]

OK, guys, I have my 14 team draft tomorrow and I am NOT prepared!  Just can't get into doing the research, crunching numbers and making lists, which I used to love doing in the past.

Everyone knows the top guys at every position but Fantasy leagues are won by the lower draft picks overperforming.

So give me a few names to look for in the middle/late rounds.  I've already culled Khalil Shakir from PSU's post, Phil's Ladd McConkey and Dave B's Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

Any further suggestions along those lines? 

A couple of guys I took in the mid to late rounds are:

X Worthy - as stated above, he seems to be taking the Tyreek Hill role

Rome Odunze - been doing very well and seems to have a good chemistry with Caleb Williams. Plus I can tell you from experience that Keenan Allen gets hurt every single season, so Odunze could easily end up as the #1 WR in Chicago

Rico Dowdle - I hate drafting Cowboys, but his only competition is Ezekial Elliot. In fact some people think he should be the starter instead of Elliot. He will split carries at a minimum, and could take over the RB1 slot in Dallas.

Ja'Lynn Polk - rookie from Washington who has done really well at NE, and seems to be the new favorite target for the QBs. I'm not crazy about the Patriots offense, but this guy is getting 1st team reps. He is only competing with KJ Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, and some guy names Tyquan Thornton. He could easily become the #1, if he isn't already

[DaveBrown74]

A couple of guys I took in the mid to late rounds are:

X Worthy - as stated above, he seems to be taking the Tyreek Hill role

Rome Odunze - been doing very well and seems to have a good chemistry with Caleb Williams. Plus I can tell you from experience that Keenan Allen gets hurt every single season, so Odunze could easily end up as the #1 WR in Chicago

Rico Dowdle - I hate drafting Cowboys, but his only competition is Ezekial Elliot. In fact some people think he should be the starter instead of Elliot. He will split carries at a minimum, and could take over the RB1 slot in Dallas.

Ja'Lynn Polk - rookie from Washington who has done really well at NE, and seems to be the new favorite target for the QBs. I'm not crazy about the Patriots offense, but this guy is getting 1st team reps. He is only competing with KJ Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, and some guy names Tyquan Thornton. He could easily become the #1, if he isn't already

This is helpful, thank you.

I have been targeting Odunze a lot. His scouting reports and respect in the draft were not far behind Nabers' and Harrison Jr. He was the third favorite of those three, but he was in that tier with them, and some scouts had him above at least one of those guys. And yet the ADP is way lower. I guess people think because he plays in an offense with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and DeAndre Swift, there won't be many balls for him. I get that rationale, but he still seems cheap. Are people not drafting Nico Collins for that same reason (plays with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs).

Keenan Allen is also old at this point and may struggle to separate. I could see Odunze working his way towards more targets than Allen over the course of the season. Definitely a guy I'm trying to get.

Interesting on Dowdie. I don't know much about him but I agree Elliott is washed up and there isn't much else. And with their weapons in the passing game the boxes they face shouldn't be too loaded.

[DaveBrown74]

Cheers, Dave. I was pretty pleased with the draft.

I agree that there's not much upside to a lot of these guys, and I am lacking in depth when injuries come along, so I'll have to ride the waiver wire and keep my fingers crossed.

I do disagree with Ford. Whilst unlikely to replicate Williams, I am expecting a big season for him for a couple of reasons:

1. Watson still cannot move the ball as QB, so the Browns will run a lot.
2. He put up okay numbers when Chubb went down. The 4 rushing TDs are nothing to write home about, but the 5 receiving ones make him more of a dual-threat guy.
3. He's had the full offseason with the ones and at least the first six weeks of the season.

The downside is that teams have had a year to plan for him.

It'll be interesting to return to this thread at the close of the Fantasy season and might even be worth the occasional check-in mid season ala the other NGT popular threads.

Good luck everyone.

I hear you on Ford and agree that he's a value-add as a pass catcher. He's on my list of guys to draft because at my RB2 spot I generally like to have one guy that I think will get a lot of action in the first part of the season and then also have guys who I could see blossoming as the year goes on. A la Pacheco in 2022.

I'm pretty high on the Chief receivers relative to ADP. Rashee Rice seems highly unlikely now to be suspended in 2024, and he is the clear number one guy there. I also think Kelce is declining (his regular season last year was a huge step down from his norm and he's 35 or about to turn 35). Rice should have a big year. Worthy is also an exciting player who will step right in and do all those jet sweep plays Reid loves.

As already mentioned, I'm staying away from Kelce this year. Maybe he still has one more good year, but as I said he declined materially in the regular season last year, and he's just at an age where I don't really want run the risk of using a second, third, or even fourth round pick on him with the risk that he drifts to being a 700 yard, 6 TD type of guy. For TEs I am aiming to get one of LaPorta, Kincaid, McBride, Andrews, or Kittle. Someone else can draft Kelce in my league.

For QBs the three I love this year are Stroud, Hurts, Burrow, and Love (in that order). That's not to say I don't love Mahomes, Allen, and Lamar too. I do. Just not quite as much relative to ADP.

QB I worry about the least of all these positions honestly. Even if I whiff on all of the above guys, you can always just grab guys like Goff and Tua and play matchups. I had a year where I made it to the finals in my league doing exactly that (was Cousins and Goff). Don't get me wrong - it's a lot of fun to have an Allen as your QB, but I don't think it's a prerequesite to winning a title. In fact it may make it harder, if anything. Because the fall-off at other positions is steeper than QB, so if you use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB, that's a pick you didn't use on a quality RB or WR, and the decline those positions see following the 3rd/4th round is generally a lot steeper than QB (especially RB).

[TDToomer]

I had my keeper snake draft yesterday. We are allowed 4 keepers with no draft value or limits attached so you can keep a player indefinitely like a dynasty league and then we have a regular snake draft.
 
Keepers: Kyron Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Drake London, Waddle.
Pick 7th out of 10 teams. .5 PPR

Sam LaPorta TE • DET    He was on my team last year and it pained me not to use a keeper on him so I was happy here
DK Metcalf WR • SEA   
Aaron Jones RB • MIN   
Kyler Murray QB • ARI   Draft gurus are raving over him so I grabbed him as soon as I saw a run of #1 Qbs.
Tyjae Spears RB • TEN   Risky speculative grab of a 2nd year player who could be there future #1
Chris Godwin WR • TB   Couldn't believe he was still available at 94th overall
Rico Dowdle RB • DAL    Elliott was available but was advised to go with the younger in what could a time share
Josh Palmer WR • LAC    Who else is Herbert throwing to. His only returning impact receiver.
Trevor Lawrence QB •    as a #2. Not bad
49ers DST • SF    
Pat Freiermuth TE
Jake Elliott K • PHI

So how did I do?   

[Philosophers]

I had my keeper snake draft yesterday. We are allowed 4 keepers with no draft value or limits attached so you can keep a player indefinitely like a dynasty league and then we have a regular snake draft.
 
Keepers: Kyron Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Drake London, Waddle.
Pick 7th out of 10 teams. .5 PPR

Sam LaPorta TE • DET    He was on my team last year and it pained me not to use a keeper on him so I was happy here
DK Metcalf WR • SEA   
Aaron Jones RB • MIN   
Kyler Murray QB • ARI   Draft gurus are raving over him so I grabbed him as soon as I saw a run of #1 Qbs.
Tyjae Spears RB • TEN   Risky speculative grab of a 2nd year player who could be there future #1
Chris Godwin WR • TB   Couldn't believe he was still available at 94th overall
Rico Dowdle RB • DAL    Elliott was available but was advised to go with the younger in what could a time share
Josh Palmer WR • LAC    Who else is Herbert throwing to. His only returning impact receiver.
Trevor Lawrence QB •    as a #2. Not bad
49ers DST • SF    
Pat Freiermuth TE
Jake Elliott K • PHI

So how did I do?   

Love LaPorta and Metcalf.  Both are beasts with LaPorta developing more.

I see Spears as you do.  Was their oass catching back behind Henry.  I think he'll get more opps even with Pollard.

I dont love Josh Palmer only because he is recovering from a knee injury last year and has not been a big part in camp plus McConkey has sounded fabulous in camp.  Also Herbert injury is fluid.

Like your draft.

[Philosophers]

In the year I won ny ESPN league, I did three things well which to win have to happen.

1) Good initial draft picks

2) Good waiver wire picks

3) Great selection of starters werk in and out.  Maybe most important.  I never left a guy on the bench who put up say 30 points.  Skill but also a lot of luck.

[Philosophers]

I won my Week 1 matchup.  The best part was watching ESPN trend up my team from 8th out of 10 teams to 2nd place.

Question.  In your experience if you have a very good WR you use but his QB is also very good out is out for the game and the backup is probably below average and inexperienced, do you still start him?

In my case it's Jayden Reed of the Packers at WR but now no Jordan Love and instead Malik Willis at QB.

I am leaning toward not starting him.  I have Tyreek Hill, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin as my other WRs.  Assume I start Hill as WR1

Thanks

[DaveBrown74]

PPR league, need to start two of these three guys:

Tank Dell at home against Bears
Xavier Worthy at home against Bengals
Ladd McConkey at Panthers

Which two would you play and why?

[Philosophers]

PPR league, need to start two of these three guys:

Tank Dell at home against Bears
Xavier Worthy at home against Bengals
Ladd McConkey at Panthers

Which two would you play and why?

I will start Worthy every week until he proves he will not be reliable.  Hollywood Brown is out for season so no drop off in targets plus Mahommes wants more downfield shots.

I expect Ladd McConkey to see the most targets week in/out and he is the most reliable on the team.  Will Herbert throw it enough is my only question but I'd also play him.

[DaveBrown74]

I will start Worthy every week until he proves he will not be reliable.  Hollywood Brown is out for season so no drop off in targets plus Mahommes wants more downfield shots.

I expect Ladd McConkey to see the most targets week in/out and he is the most reliable on the team.  Will Herbert throw it enough is my only question but I'd also play him.

So bench Dell?

Agree on McConkey. He's going to be a high floor player all year who will only get better. Harbaugh picked him for a reason. He's going to make sure he feeds him the ball.

There is no question as to Worthy's talent and game-break explosiveness. There is also no question that he is in a great situation. I drafted him for those reasons. He did put up 20 fantasy points last week, which is pretty awesome for a week one rookie, but usage is a concern. He had only five touches. Brown was out last week two so while your point is well taken, that same point applied to week one and Worthy still only got five touches.

I will probably go with Worthy because with Brown now on the IR, Reid knows he has to get Worthy the ball more. Especially after what Worthy did in week one.

It's tough though because Dell is no slouch of a player. He's a guy who is capable of going for 150 receiving yards and a TD in a given week. His game log last year proves that. After a slow start last week I expect him to bounce back.

Good problem for me to have I guess, but it's a tough one. I don't think this is that easy of a call.

[Philosophers]

So bench Dell?

Agree on McConkey. He's going to be a high floor player all year who will only get better. Harbaugh picked him for a reason. He's going to make sure he feeds him the ball.

There is no question as to Worthy's talent and game-break explosiveness. There is also no question that he is in a great situation. I drafted him for those reasons. He did put up 20 fantasy points last week, which is pretty awesome for a week one rookie, but usage is a concern. He had only five touches. Brown was out last week two so while your point is well taken, that same point applied to week one and Worthy still only got five touches.

I will probably go with Worthy because with Brown now on the IR, Reid knows he has to get Worthy the ball more. Especially after what Worthy did in week one.

It's tough though because Dell is no slouch of a player. He's a guy who is capable of going for 150 receiving yards and a TD in a given week. His game log last year proves that. After a slow start last week I expect him to bounce back.

Good problem for me to have I guess, but it's a tough one. I don't think this is that easy of a call.

Yea a good problem to have for sure.  Think you are more comfortable playing Dell so play him.  I am crushing on Worthy now since prior to drafting him.

[DaveBrown74]

Yea a good problem to have for sure.  Think you are more comfortable playing Dell so play him.  I am crushing on Worthy now since prior to drafting him.

I'll make a decision by tomorrow. The reason to start Worthy over Dell would be the upside factor. I'm up against a loaded opponent.

I also have a feeling this Bengals/Chiefs game could be an 80 total point type shootout.

Really tough call for me. I don't think I can bench McConkey. I feel like he's going to be a prime Welker/Edelman type of player for this team.

[Philosophers]

I'll make a decision by tomorrow. The reason to start Worthy over Dell would be the upside factor. I'm up against a loaded opponent.

I also have a feeling this Bengals/Chiefs game could be an 80 total point type shootout.

Really tough call for me. I don't think I can bench McConkey. I feel like he's going to be a prime Welker/Edelman type of player for this team.

That's how I see McConkey as well.  Just dont know if Herbert will throw it 35 times or they try for a more balanced 50-50 run/pass.

[Philosophers]

I'll make a decision by tomorrow. The reason to start Worthy over Dell would be the upside factor. I'm up against a loaded opponent.

I also have a feeling this Bengals/Chiefs game could be an 80 total point type shootout.

Really tough call for me. I don't think I can bench McConkey. I feel like he's going to be a prime Welker/Edelman type of player for this team.

So here's my dilemma this week.

Ladd McConkey or Zay Flowers?

[DaveBrown74]

So here's my dilemma this week.

Ladd McConkey or Zay Flowers?

Tough. Not an easy call.

With McConkey, we may be optimistic but we only have one week of NFL data with him. With Zay, you have a whole season, and you know he's a really good player.

I owned Zay last year and liked him for the most part, and when you watch him play there is no question as to his talent. I was watching the Ravens/Chiefs game two Thursdays ago and thinking to myself how quick and good he is. But then you look at the box score and he has 36 receiving yards or something. To be fair he had six catches so you're generally going to get to the 10 point thereshold with him even when he doesn't find the end zone, but he's a very horizontal type player in a lot of these games.

McConkey could end up being sort of similar though. He might have a similar profile, and Harbaugh could run the ball a lot in this game if this Carolina D falls apart like they did last week.

Tough call. They probably have similar expectations this week. I might lean Flowers just due to the experience factor, but I can make a case for McConkey. The Raiders' pass rush might force Lamar to dump it off more and that could benefit Flowers as he could end up with 8-9 catches or something.