NGT - Surprise NFL teams this year?

[DaveBrown74]

Pretty much every year, there are NFL teams who really surprise and do a lot better than people are expecting. The Texans and Browns were examples last year.

Are there any teams you could see significantly exceeding expectations this year? Please explain why you feel that way.

For this thread, please don't list the Giants, even if you believe they will exceed expectations. This is a non-Giants topic thread. If you choose to respond, please only focus on the other 31 teams.

Thanks.

[Ed Vette]

The Denver Broncos. They have looked sharp in the PS and the addition of Bo Nix in Sean Payton's Offense will drive that Offense. I can see them getting a Playoff Spot. Also, watch out for Washington and the Jets if Rodgers stays healthy.

[DaveBrown74]

The Denver Broncos. They have looked sharp in the PS and the addition of Bo Nix in Sean Payton's Offense will drive that Offense. I can see them getting a Playoff Spot. Also, watch out for Washington and the Jets if Rodgers stays healthy.

Washington and the Broncos will be huge calls if you get either of those right. Those two teams are not on the radar at all.

The Jets to me are in a different category. Everyone knows they have a ridiculously loaded roster in terms of talent. Rodgers is the wildcard. If he stays healthy and plays well (turning 41 this season so the latter is not a given), they could easily be a contender, and I think plenty of people feel that way.

[DaveBrown74]

One team I'm looking at is the Falcons.

PFF has their O line ranked 2nd in the league. I think Arthur Smith really held them back with his antiquated offensive approach. Additionally, Desmond Ridder was one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL last year along with Zack Wilson, Jones, and Kenny Pickett. Going from Ridder to Cousins is huge, and I think having that offense move from the shackles of Arthur Smith to McVay disciple Zac Robinson as the OC could be a huge lift as well. With Bijan, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts they have some talent, and the division is very weak. Don't be surprised to see them win that division and make it to at least the second round of the playoffs.

[Ed Vette]

Washington and the Broncos will be huge calls if you get either of those right. Those two teams are not on the radar at all.

The Jets to me are in a different category. Everyone knows they have a ridiculously loaded roster in terms of talent. Rodgers is the wildcard. If he stays healthy and plays well (turning 41 this season so the latter is not a given), they could easily be a contender, and I think plenty of people feel that way.

The Broncos have a good Defense. Let's see if Jayden Daniels can stay on the field.

[Ed Vette]

One team I'm looking at is the Falcons.

PFF has their O line ranked 2nd in the league. I think Arthur Smith really held them back with his antiquated offensive approach. Additionally, Desmond Ridder was one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL last year along with Zack Wilson, Jones, and Kenny Pickett. Going from Ridder to Cousins is huge, and I think having that offense move from the shackles of Arthur Smith to McVay disciple Zac Robinson as the OC could be a huge lift as well. With Bijan, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts they have some talent, and the division is very weak. Don't be surprised to see them win that division and make it to at least the second round of the playoffs.

That's a good call.

[LennG]

 Whether they are considered an under-the-radar team, I think the Jets will surprise a lot of people if Rodgers stays healthy. They have a lot of pieces in place and could make a decent run, That said, the Jets will always be the Jets and screw something up at the very end.

[bamagiantfan]

It was clear at the start of last season that Carr was not on the same page with his receivers and he had to give up abut 10-15 snaps a game to Taysom Hill. At the end of the year they looked much better. They also have the weakest schedule in the NFL. There are weapons there and the Defense is still solid. It won't take much to rise up past Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Carolina. I can see them winning 10 games if Carr gets a full load under center.

[TDToomer]

I think the Bears will make the biggest jump from where they have been the past 2 years.

[katkavage]

I don't consider the Jets a surprise team. They have very high expectations if Rogers is healthy. And with Taylor as a backup can win with him too.

[EDjohnst1981]

I think the Bears will make the biggest jump from where they have been the past 2 years.

Would agree with this. I think they are going to be quite explosive on offence.

I also like what I'm reading out of Denver, Nix sounds like a very good prospect - I do remember @Ed Vette's conviction around him so I picked him up in my Dynasty Draft.

As also mentioned, I think the Falcons will compete. Again they are loaded with weapons and even serviceable, not elite, QB play ought to allow them to kick on in a weak(ish) division. 

All in all, I'm offering nothing that hasn't been said above but I really like those 3.

[DaveBrown74]

I checked the official over/unders on DraftKings.

First off, the Jets right now have a 10.5 over/under. So unless people are calling them to go maybe 13-4, saying you think they'll "surprise" and be good isn't a big call. 10.5 wins is the base case expectations by the market. So if they go 11-6, they will not have "surprised."

The Falcons are 9.5, so my call is not a big one either. I thought they were more like 8. I could see them winning 10 or 11, but I'm not sure I view them as a top contender. They did just get Matt Judon, so if their D is solid they could potentially be very interesting.

The Bears have a 9/9.5 win over/under. People have obviously bet their over. So to say they'll be "very improved" is kind of in line with what everyone else is thinking and (consequently) not a big call. Unless people are saying they're going to be an 11 or 12 win type team, ie one of the best few teams in the NFC. Is anyone here making that call?

The Commanders are 6.5 and the Broncos are 5.5. Anyone calling those teams to be playoff caliber (ie 9-8 or better) is making a legit call there.

[VanPelt]

The Giants of course

Ok,ok, then I'll go with the Broncos too.

I also think the Jets will be the surprise but in the bad direction. I think they are being overrated by the media and talking heads. Rodgers didn't look all that good his last season with GB (remember our game in London) and he hasn't played in something like 1.5 years now.

[DaveBrown74]

The Giants of course

Ok,ok, then I'll go with the Broncos too.

I also think the Jets will be the surprise but in the bad direction. I think they are being overrated by the media and talking heads. Rodgers didn't look all that good his last season with GB (remember our game in London) and he hasn't played in something like 1.5 years now.

I think this is is an interesting take. You're right about Rodgers. He missed 2023, and he wasn't very good in 2022. So we're talking about a guy whose last good season was 3 years ago. He turns 41 this year, and he's coming off a severe injury. It's reasonable to wonder how good he'll be this year.

I do think the Jets' roster is loaded though. It's hard for me to see them winning fewer than about 8 games unless they have a raft of injuries or Rodgers is so bad that he's basically unrecognizable. I mean the Giants won 9 games with Jones two years ago with a much worse roster than what the Jets have. So for the Jets to be something like 7-10 with a reasonably healthy season is hard to fathom.

[VanPelt]

I think this is is an interesting take. You're right about Rodgers. He missed 2023, and he wasn't very good in 2022. So we're talking about a guy whose last good season was 3 years ago. He turns 41 this year, and he's coming off a severe injury. It's reasonable to wonder how good he'll be this year.

I do think the Jets' roster is loaded though. It's hard for me to see them winning fewer than about 8 games unless they have a raft of injuries or Rodgers is so bad that he's basically unrecognizable. I mean the Giants won 9 games with Jones two years ago with a much worse roster than what the Jets have. So for the Jets to be something like 7-10 with a reasonably healthy season is hard to fathom.

Yep, I also think there is a 50/50 chance he gets injured again. Maybe not out for the year injured, but banged around enough to miss games. He is 41 yrs old now and he's not really that mobile