The Big Hitter's Scouting Report: Vikings Offense

[bighitterdalama]

Hi folks. I hoped to have this out earlier this week but got a bit too busy. God willing I'll have the Vikings' defense report ready by tomorrow. My plan is for future reports to out by mid-week. I hope you enjoy it and find it informative.

Minnesota Vikings Offense

Much like Brian Daboll, Viking Head Coach Kevin O'Connell is an offensive coach. His pedigree is of the Mike Shanahan/Sean McVay school of offense. O'Connell served as Rams' offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021 before becoming to the Vikings HC in 2022. His offensive coordinator, Wes Phillips, served under O'Connell with the Rams, first as tight ends coach, then as TE coach/passing game coordinator. He is the son of Wade Phillips.

The Kevin O'Connell offense deemphasizes the importance of the run game, even more so than other run/light versions of the Shanahan/McVay offense. In 2023, the Vikings were 28th in the NFL with just 393 run plays, good for only 91.2 rush yards/game (29th) and an NFL worst 7 rushing touchdowns.  The Vikings ran the ball on only 36.7% of the offensive snaps. It is in the passing game where the Vikings offense excels. Despite losing Kick Cousins for nine games, replaced first by Josh Dobbs, then Nick Mullens, the 2023 Vikings still managed to finish 5th in passing yardage (256.4 Y/G), 2nd in completions (424), 4th in attempts (631), 6th in completion percentage (67.2%), and 4th in touchdowns (30). The Vikings were tied for 10th best in sacks given up (47) and 9th best in sack yardage lost (341). Overall, they had the 10th most first downs (340), were 18th best in 3rd down efficiency (38.1%) and 6th best in 4th down efficiency (58.6%). The Vikings' offense tied for 8th with the least offensive penalties (89) and were 4th least in penalty yards (670). The 2023 Vikings were flat out bad in turning the ball over. The Vikings lost 15 fumbles (3rd worst), threw 19 interceptions (4th worst) for a total of 34 turnovers (2nd worst). Given a middling 22 takeaways by the defense (tied for 19), the Vikings' minus 12 turnover ratio was third worst in the NFL.

Note: following is based upon 2023 statistics. The 2023 Vikings ran 11 personnel approximately 50% of the snaps, 12 personnel 23% of the snaps, 21 personnel 12%, 22 personnel 5%, and 4 wideouts 10%. The Vikings played two or more tight ends on about 1/3 of the offensive snaps and averaged about 2.5 wideouts per snap. In the passing game, running backs were targeted about 15%, tight ends 30%, and wideouts 55%. The pass completion rate to running backs was about 77%, with a yards/catch average of 6.5 and a yards/attempt of 5.0. Completion rate to tight ends was 75%, with 10.1 Y/C and 7.6 Y/A. The wideout completion rate was 65% with a Y/C average of 13.1 and a Y/A of 8.6.

In my opinion, the keys to the Giants defense stopping the Vikings offense are as follows:

1)   On run plays, maintain proper gap responsibilities so as to limit the effect of a weak run game. Doing so should force the Vikings into a one-dimensional pass-only offense.
2)   Create a hard outside pass rush by the Giants excellent edge rushers against the Vikings excellent tackles, Such pressure should force the Vikings' backs & TEs to assist with pass pro on the edge.
3)   Create a strong insider pass rush by Dexter Lawrence, who should be able to overwhelm center Garrett Bradbury.  Mix in A-gap blitzes by inside linebackers take advantage of guard help against Dex.
4)   Above all, create pressure against Sam Darnold, forcing him into poor decision making, something he excels at.
5)   Limit the damage done by the Vikings' wideouts, particularly Justin Jefferson. The injury status of Jordan Addison (ankle) and Jailen Nailor (ankle) plays big in this equation. See below. 

Quarterback

The Vikings decided to part ways last off-season with quarterback Kirk Cousins, who left via free agency for Atlanta. On March 13, they signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million dollar contract as a short-term fix. They subsequently drafted Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the #10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The original plan in place was for Darnold to begin the season as the starter with McCarthy waiting in the wings as the backup. In Preseason Game 1, McCarthy suffered a knee injury which placed him on season-ending IR. The Vikings now have Darnold solidly slotted in as starter, backed up by Nick Mullins and Brett Ripien.

Since the 2018 NFL Draft, when he was selected #3 by the Jets, Darnold has suffered through an up and down, mostly down career. Things never clicked properly for Darnold with the Jets. In three seasons with 38 starts, he threw for just 8,097 yards with 43 touchdowns, 39 picks, and a won/lost record of 13-25. After three seasons, the Jets gave up on Darnold and shipped him off to Carolina in exchange for three draft picks. He then spent two mediocre seasons in Carolina, being edged out as starter in 2022 by Baker Mayfield. A free agent following 2022, Darnold signed a 2023 one-year deal as the backup quarterback in San Francisco. Playing sparingly for the 49ers, he left at season's end and signed the one-year deal with the Vikings.

Other than experience as a starter, Darnold brings little in the way of positive attributes to the quarterback table. He is not a particularly accurate thrower, does not have a cannon for an arm, and is not mobile on his feet. Perhaps most importantly, Darnold is a turnover machine. In 56 NFL starts, he has 63 touchdowns, 56 picks, and 38 fumbles.

The #2 backup, Nick Mullens, shows many of the same proclivities as Darnold. Playing five games in 2023 (three starts), Mullens completed 100 of 148 pass attempts for 1306 yards and an impressive 13.1 yards/completion. That said, he balanced 7 touchdowns with 8 interceptions and two fumbles, losing all three of his starts. Like Darnold, Mullens is not mobile, rushing for just 25 yards on 10 carries. #3 quarterback Brett Ripien comes over from the Rams, where, in 2023, he took just 78 snaps. He completed just 18 of 38 passes for 172 yards, zero touchdowns, one pick, and two fumbles.

Like it or not, the success of the 2024 Vikings will sink or swim on the arm (and experience) of Sam Darnold.

Offensive Line

Many pundits, regularly joined by hopeful Vikings' fans, consider Minnesota's offensive line to be a top ten unit. I don't see it, and neither does PFF, which ranks it at #13. That ranking, to me, remains a bit high. PFF does, indeed, rate the starting tackles as first rate, but somewhat over-values a questionable interior. In addition, the depth is more than a bit suspect. Let's delve in.
Minnesota certainly does have a fine set of bookend tackles. LT Christian Darrishaw, at 2021 first round pick (#23 overall) from Virginia Tech, has developed into one of the top left tackles in the NFL.  In 2023, PFF ranked Darrishaw #8 overall among 81 graded tackles, earning scores of 73.9 for run blocking, 85.3 in pass protection, and an overall score of 82.4. Starting opposite Darrishaw is 29-year-old Brian O'Neill, a 2018 second-round pick from Pitt. O'Neill, ranked #24 overall, earning grades of 71.7(run)/73.4(pass pro)/74.5(overall).

Tackles aside, I see the interior of the line suspect and, in fact, a bit subpar. Center Garrett Bradbury, a 2019 first round pick (#18 overall), is now 29 years old. Somewhat undersized at 6'3"/300, Bradbury has never developed into the player hoped for by the Vikings. Coaching staff and team pundits alike speak of him in terms of "improved play," "something to build on," "hopes for the future." Sound familiar, Giants fans, vis-à-vis high O line draft picks that did not pan out? Truth is, Bradbury is and will be an undersized slightly mediocre center who, when facing powerful nose tackles, will lose the battle time and again. The left guard spot opened up last spring when the Vikings traded 2023 starter Ezra Cleveland to Jacksonville for a sixth-round pick. A camp battle then emerged between former Denver second-round pick Dalton Risner, whom the Vikings re-signed to a one-year deal in April, and Blake Brandel, a 2020 sixth-round pick from Oregon. Brandel seemed to have the upper-hand in this battle, playing with the 1s throughout camp.  Then, in late August, Risner went on the short-term IR with a back injury and will miss at least the Vikings' first four games. Brandel, a 2023 backup, did take 163 snaps, earning PFF grades of 63.8/52.2/55.1. At right guard is returning starter Ed Ingram, a 2022 second-round pick. Ingram, who missed two games in 2023, has started all 32 games in which he has played. Like Bradbury, Ingram is a bit undersized at 6'3"/307. PFF rated him #38 of 79 qualifying guards in 2023, with grades of 59.1/60.9/59.5.

The O line backup unit is thin. This is an important consideration as all 2023 starting positions missed considerable time in 2023. Returning at swing tackle is 34-year-old career backup David Quessenberry. As a 2023 fill-in, Quessenberry took 332 snaps, earning PFF grades of 57.2/68.3/64.8. The #4 tackle, Walter Rouse, is a rookie sixth-round pick from Oklahoma. Rookie guard Michael Jurgens is a former seventh-round pick from Wake Forest. Backing up at center and guard is 30-year-old journeyman Dan Feeney. The one-time third-round pick from Indiana has bounced around from the Chargers, Jets, and, most recently, Chicago. As a 2023 backup for the Bears, Feeney took 91 snaps, earning quite bad grades of 45.7/44.8/44.8.

Running Backs

As stated, the Kevin O'Connell/Wes Phillips offense has a downgraded attitude towards the running game. The Vikings just ran the ball 393 times in 2023, fourth-lowest in the NFL; their run-to-pass ratio was just 36.7%. The Vikings utilize a north/south zone/blocking run game utilized just often enough to keep the opposing defense honest. The Vikings see the RB position as multi-functional. They look for quick, solid, if not brutal downhill runners who are also both solid as pass receivers and pass protectors. The typical Vikings runner is about 5'10''-6'0"/205-215.

The Vikings have opted to keep just two running backs on the 53-man roster. Back in the spring, they decided to not re-sign free agent RB Alexander Mattison, a 2023 starter who ultimately inked a one-year $2 million contract with the Raiders. In his place, they signed one-time Packer Aaron Jones to a one-year/$7 million contract. Similar in both size and game, Jones is a mild upgrade over Mattison. That said, at 29 years old,Jones is three years older than Mattison and is no longer the 1,000-yard threat he once was. Still, he was productive in 2023 for the Packers. In 11 games, he gained 656 yards on 142 carries, 4.6 Y/C while also catching 30 passes on 43 targets for 233 yards, 7.8 yards/catch. Hopefully a lighter carry load will help to limit the injury time from which he has recently suffered. Ty Chandler returns as the oft-used backup. In 2023, The 26-year-old Chandler ran for 461 yards on 102 carries, 4.5 Y/C, and three touchdowns while catching 21 passes on 25 targets for 159 yards, 7.6 yards/catch. The Vikings do carry a fullback: 31-year-old C.J. Ham. Used almost exclusively as a blocker, Ham is rarely utilized otherwise: in 2023, he had just one carry for 7 yards and had 7 catches on 9 targets for 25 yards.

Tight Ends

Tight end is an important position in the Vikings' offense. In 2023, the Vikings played either 12 or 22 personnel on 32% of the offensive snaps, targeting the tight end on 29.6% of the pass attempts, with a completion percentage of 75.4%, 1367receiving yards, and eight touchdowns. As noted, two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson is presently on the Vikings PUP list and is unlikely to play until at least mid-October. That said, #2 tight end Josh Oliver is a very solid player. A 2019 third-round pick from San Jose State, the 2023 Oliver took 466 offensive snaps (42%). He caught 22 passes on 28 targets for 213 yards, 9.7 Y/C, and 2 touchdowns. The #3 tight end, 29-year-old Johnny Mundt, is, at 6'4"/233, primarily utilized as a pass catcher. Targeted 23 times in 2023, he caught 17 passes for 172 yards, 10.1 Y/C, and one touchdown. Returning #4 tight end, Johnny Muse, played quite extensively this preseason. He was used little in 2023 but did catch one pass for 22 yards.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson = All World. Period. 2020 first-round pick (#23 overall) from LSU. As a rookie, he made the Pro Bowl; in every subsequent season, he has gotten better. 2020: 88 catches/1400 yards. 2021: 188 catches/1616 yards. 2022: 128 catches/1809 yards. 2024, in ten games, 68 catches/1071 yards. Three- time Pro Bowler, one time All Pro, 2022 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Barring a mid-season hamstring injury that cost him seven games, the 2023 Jefferson could likely have set the NFL single season yardage record now held by Megatron. Does it all: deep, middle, short. Great routes, great YAC. Must be double teamed every play. Forget about Cover 1; Jefferson will eat that up. Cover 2 or better, with tight coverage underneath.

#2 receiver Jordan Addison is pretty darn good in his own right. The Vikings 2023 first-round pick (#24 overall), he had a quite credible rookie season, catching 70 passes on 108 targets for 911 yards, 13.0 yards/catch, and ten touchdowns. Addison suffered an ankle injury in training camp that has since kept him out of both practice and preseason games. Although witnessed on the field for practice this week, it does not appear that he is participating in team drills. When asked about Addison's availability, Head Coach Kevin O'Connell has used the terminology, "he is improving . . . I hope he will be ready . . . I expect him to be able to play." All this is standard coach speak for a player who will likely NOT be ready to go. We will see.

The Vikings opted to allow 2023 #3 wide receiver K.J Osborn to leave for free agency; he is now on New England. They did so in part because they have been impressed with 2022 sixth-round pick Jailen Nailor, who they hope can step into the #3 role. The problem with Nailor, going back to his college days at Michigan State, is the injury bug. After a decent rookie season in 2022 (9 catches, 179 yards, 19.9 Y/C), he missed 11 games in 2023, catching only six passes for 29 yards. This preseason, he suffered an ankle injury of the "day-to-day" variety that has carried on for several weeks. This week, he has not participated in practice, with HC Kevin O'Connell describing him with the usual "improving day by day . . . hope him to be ready . . ." Again, the usual coach speak. Does not sound promising for him to play against the Giants.

The Vikings do have some talent among the backups. Brandon Powell, who also serves as a punt and kickoff return man, took 407 snaps at wide receiver in 2023. He caught 29 passes on 44 targets for 324 yards, 11.2 Y/C, and one touchdown. The Vikings rarely employ a wide receiver reverse, but, when they do, it is likely Powell that carries the ball. In 2023, he had 5 carries for 17 yards (3.4 Y/C). Trent Sherfield, a 2018 UDFA from Vanderbilt, came to the Vikings from Buffalo. In 2023, Sherfield caught 11 passes for the Bills on 22 targets for 86 yards, 7.8 Y/C, and one touchdown. Finally, Trishton Jackson, a 2020 UDFA from Syracuse, had one of those All- Pro preseasons: 9 catches on 11 targets for 154 yards, 17.1 Y/C, and 3 touchdowns. In fact, Jackson scored in each of the three preseason games. His previous NFL stats, all from 2023, were 2 catches on 4 targets for 9 yards.

Next Up: Vikings Defense

[Painter]

Very insightful and informative. Thank, Brian.

Cheers!

[Bob In PA]

Brian: Super! A cavalcade of info that must have taken quite a while to assemble. Many thanks. Bob

[Bob In PA]

IMO, the outcome will be determined much like a playoff game... best QB wins.

I don't see Jones losing this match-up, even if he collapses somewhere later on in the season.

I do worry, though, that the Giants now have a new defensive coordinator and new defense. Wink and his defense had the Viking's number, and IMO it was due to scheme, not personnel. IMO the prior approach was more suited to rattling Darnold than what I anticipate the current one will be. It will be interesting, but I think our improved offense will make up for any regression in the match-up between Giants' defense and Vikings offense.

Bob

[Ed Vette]

IMO, the outcome will be determined much like a playoff game... best QB wins.

I don't see Jones losing this match-up, even if he collapses somewhere later on in the season.

I do worry, though, that the Giants now have a new defensive coordinator and new defense. Wink and his defense had the Viking's number, and IMO it was due to scheme, not personnel. IMO the prior approach was more suited to rattling Darnold than what I anticipate the current one will be. It will be interesting, but I think our improved offense will make up for any regression in the match-up between Giants' defense and Vikings offense.

Bob

Both team's Power Rankings are close. Overall V- 25th, G- 27th.
PFF Grades and QB Ratings close but Darnold has a slight edge.
The big difference is Passer Rating Under Pressure. Darnold- 74.1. Jones- 35.2.
The difference in the Vikings Team since 2022 is their Secondary and LB'r Groups have improved significantly.
As Brian illustrated, the Interior of their offensive Line is their Soft Spot. For the Giants, it's their Secondary.

It should be a good game. We get to see if Daboll with the menu makes a difference and if Bowen has prepared his men well in his new Defense. Daboll's going to need to scheme Receivers open and break Jones in slowly. 

[MightyGiants]

Well done, Brian 


However, my biggest concern with the Vikings' offense is the Giants' defense.   As Mike Lombardi said in his latest podcast, early on in the season, continuity is an advantage for teams.

The Vikings may have a new QB and RB but the coach and much of the unit are the same.

The Giants defense tasked to stop this offense has a new DC, a new scheme, and 3 or 4 new starters.

That particular aspect of this matchup truly favors the Vikings.  How much injury at TE (and potentially WR) can offset that remains to be seen.

[Uncle Mickey]

Well done, Brian 


However, my biggest concern with the Vikings' offense is the Giants' defense.   As Mike Lombardi said in his latest podcast, early on in the season, continuity is an advantage for teams.

The Vikings may have a new QB and RB but the coach and much of the unit are the same.

The Giants defense tasked to stop this offense has a new DC, a new scheme, and 3 or 4 new starters.

That particular aspect of this matchup truly favors the Vikings.  How much injury at TE (and potentially WR) can offset that remains to be seen.

Continuity is always a big one on the checklist.

I'm hoping Bowen's scheme which some I believe have said has been taught well and isn't overly complicated will be mastered fairly quickly.

Spagnuolo's D took about 3 games to master with NYG getting blown out in a couple games.

[retrojint]

Brian:
On the Giants site, they were mentioning that Viking media strongly expected an enhanced emphasis on the running game this season.  Not sure that will come to pass.  You can abandon commitments and emphasis very quickly , especially when your two top offensive players are wide receivers . 

Taking solace in the perceived weakness of their interior offensive line.  I also think the Giants defense will be more structurally sound against the running game than the last two seasons' "whatever" approach . 

As for Darnold, he has had a chance to heal and retrench.  He benefits from being coached by one of the game's most talented offensive minds.  But he still has to go out there , process , decide and deliver the ball.  Like Daniel Jones , they both have been unable to consistently fulfill that basic of job requirements for the most important position in the game.  Process. Decide.  Deliver .  A running game helps . 

To me this is a game featuring two maligned -deservedly-quarterbacks.  And , frankly, regardless of the outcome , I don't think either team has the long-term answer.  But life is about taking advantage of opportunities .  Darnold and Jomes both have theirs tomorrow. 

[MightyGiants]

Brian:
On the Giants site, they were mentioning that Viking media strongly expected an enhanced emphasis on the running game this season.  Not sure that will come to pass.  You can abandon commitments and emphasis very quickly , especially when your two top offensive players are wide receivers . 

Taking solace in the perceived weakness of their interior offensive line.  I also think the Giants defense will be more structurally sound against the running game than the last two seasons' "whatever" approach . 

As for Darnold, he has had a chance to heal and retrench.  He benefits from being coached by one of the game's most talented offensive minds.  But he still has to go out there , process , decide and deliver the ball.  Like Daniel Jones , they both have been unable to consistently fulfill that basic of job requirements for the most important position in the game.  Process. Decide.  Deliver .  A running game helps . 

To me this is a game featuring two maligned -deservedly-quarterbacks.  And , frankly, regardless of the outcome , I don't think either team has the long-term answer.  But life is about taking advantage of opportunities .  Darnold and Jomes both have theirs tomorrow.

Hi Steve, long time no hear.  Great to see you back.  How are things?

[bighitterdalama]

Vikings are reporting that both Jordan Addison and Jaelin Nailor are good to go today. No Vikings on the injury report.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Great summary, and I am grateful that you took the time to summarize the Vikings in a concise and articulate manner. I think the Giants are lucky that Darnold will be piloting the Vikes. If we keep the pressure on him, and our backfield plays tight, this should be a nice opening season win...knock on wood (don't want to jinx us)

I am most excited to see what schemes are up Daboll's sleeves to get our offense rolling. That's really been a huge problem for the last few years. We have some good pieces now, we just need some actual scheming that throws the defense off their game plan. Dabes is known for being a top-notch offensive coach, so it will be interesting to see just how different the game plan will be today with him calling plays

[andrew_nyGiants]

That's why BigHitter is who he is.

Great report! Thank you so much for sharing your expertise!


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