The Big Hitter's Scouting Report: Washington Defense

[bighitterdalama]

Washington Defense

The pedigree of Washington head coach Dan Quinn is on defense. He began his career in 1994, coaching defensive line at William and Mary, VMI, and Hofstra. In 2000, he moved into the NFL, again as a D line coach, having stints in Miami, the Jets, and Seattle.  In 2011/2012, he was DC at the University of Florida. In 2013, Pete Carroll hired him to be his DC in Seattle. Two Super Bowl seasons followed, with Seattle finishing each season 1st in the NFL in both PPG and yardage. His success in Seattle led to a 2014 hire as head coach in Atlanta. He spent the next six years in Atlanta, a stint that included a trip to the 2016 Super Bowl LI (a 34-28 loss to New England, the game in which the Falcons blew at 28-3 lead). Fired after 2020, Quinn was subsequently hired by Dallas as DC. Quinn turned what had been a mediocre Dallas defense into a team strength. In 2021-2023, Dallas finished 19th, 12th, and 5th in yardage and 7th, 5th, and 5th in points.

Quinn's background is along the defensive line. In fact, prior to his DC hire in Seattle, he had exclusively coached D line. Quinn prioritizes fast, tough two-way edge DEs built in the 6'4"/265 range. In Dallas, Quinn's defenses finished 14th, 3rd, and 13th in sacks. His Dallas defense was excellent against the pass, finishing 20th, 8th, and 5th in yardage defense and 1st, 7th, and 8th in interceptions.

Quinn brought in Joe Whitt, his Dallas defensive backs/defensive passing game coordinator, to be his defensive coordinator in DC. Whitt began his career in 2003 at Louisville. He moved into the NFL in 2008, coaching cornerbacks at Green Bay. Whitt spent ten seasons in Grenn Bay. After one-year stints in Cleveland and Atlanta, he was brought into Dallas by Quinn to whip into shape a lethargic secondary. As noted above, his secondaries jumped into the upper echelon of the league in both pass defense and interceptions. It has yet to be seen how Whitt, a career defensive backs coach, applies the defensive precepts of Quinn, a career defensive line coach, to the Washington defense.

The Quinn/Whitt defensive duo have their work cut out in DC. In 2023, the Washington defense finished dead last in both points/game (30.5) and yardage (389 yards/game). This defense should not look bereft of defensive talent. It's current roster sports 7 players who were first-round picks and five who were second-round picks. It will be up to Quinn/Whitt to utilize this talent to it's supposed potential, something the previous regime, itself a defensive-minded group, could not do.

The defense did not get off to a good start in the Week 1 opener against Tampa. The team gave up 392 yards, 7th worst for the week. They were particularly bad against the pass. Tampa QB Baker Mayfield completed 24 of 30 passes, a completion rate of 80%, dead last, while giving up 280 net yards, 4th worst. Dan Quinn was particularly irked by the 3rd down defense, which repeatedly failed, often on third-and-long situations. For the game, the defense allowed 9 of 13 3rd down conversions, a conversion rate of 69.2%, which again was worst in the NFL.

Positionally, Quinn/Whitt have installed what is effectively a fulltime 4-2-5 front. Players such as Clelin Ferrell and Dante Fowler, once considered "outside linebackers," are now three-point-stance hand-in-the-dirt defensive ends. Against Tampa, I saw more of an under front, especially by the tackles. One of the more common alignments had a three-tech tackle to the weak side and the nose tackle in a 2i position off the inside shoulder of the strong side guard. The defense had two linebackers on the field every play: Bobby Wagner took all 64 snaps; Frankie Luvu 59 snaps, subbed out by Mykal Walker on 5 plays. The joker in this defense is the slot corner, presently played by rookie Mike Sainristil. This position moves quite a bit along the strong side of the offense, often positioning as a stack over the LDE or even a four-tech directly over the offensive right tackle. This positioning often gives the front a false traditional 4-3 look and allows the slot corner to give up-tight run support on run downs and to either play man coverage, drop into zone, or blitz on pass downs.

As for coverages, I saw mixture Cover 2, Cover 1, and occasional Cover 3, with Cover 2 predominating. Washington played a mixture of zone and m-2-m; by my observation, a bit more zone than man. Washington had but one sack for minus 9 yards, but it was not for a lack of trying. Washington blitzed 24 times, with inside linebackers Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner blitzing 10 and 6 times respectively, slot corner Mike Sainristil 4 times, and safety Jeremy Chinn 2. Edge rushers dropped into coverage just 3 times total.

Defensive Tackle

Ground zero of a defense is its line, and Washington has invested heavily in this area. Against Tampa, this unit was hardly heard from all game. The DTs will simply have to play better in the future in order for Washington to develop a solid defense.

The Commanders defense presently carries five defensive tackles, four of which were high draft picks. Daron Payne was a first-round selection (#13 overall/Alabama) in 2018. Payne has since developed into a solid, if unspectacular, player. In 2023, Payne registered 53 tackles (32 solo). 13 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks, 11 QB hits, 4 blocked passes, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries. He earned PFF grades of 58.7 (run), 57.1 (pass rush), 61.2 (overall), rating #57 of 130 qualifying DTs. Against Tampa, in 40 defensive snaps, Payne recorded a single tackle, earning PFF grades of 48.5/73.3/63.1. Starting along side Payne is fellow Alabama alum Jonathan Allen, a 2017 fist round pick (#17 overall). Like Payne, Allen is a good-but-not-great player. Last season, he also recorded 53 tackles (30/23), with 10 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 19 QB hits, and one blocked pass. His PFF grades were an awful 37.9 against the run, a solid 77.6 for pass rush, and 59.7 overall (#65 of 130). Against Tampa, Allen took 41 defensive snaps, recording 2 solo tackles and a QB hit, earning PFF grades of 60.5/50.5/54.2.

At present, Washington carries three DT backups. Phidarian Mathis was a 2022 second pick from Alabama. (Washington really likes those Alabama DTs, don't they?) Mathis played sparingly in 2023, recording 203 defensive snaps. He recorded 8 tackles (2/6), 1 QB hit, and had one fumble recovery. His PFF grades were a terrible 32.2 against the run, 66.5 for pass rush, and just 42.7 overall. Against Tampa, he took 23 snaps, recording 1 solo tackle and earning PFF grades of 55.9/60.5/66.1. 30-year-old Sheldon Day, a journeyman now on his sixth NFL team, comes to Washington after spending 2023 in Minnesota. In six games and 127 defensive snaps for the Vikings, he recorded 8 tackles (7/1), with an overall PFF of 61.4. Against Tampa, he had 23 defensive snaps and record 1 solo tackle. He earned PFF grades of 53.4/52.1/49.2. The fifth and final DT is Jer'zhan Newton, a rookie second-round pick from Illinois. Newton has been nursing a foot injury he suffered in camp and did not play against Tampa. His status for Sunday is unknown.

Defensive End

It is no secret that the highlight of the Dan Quinn defense is a ferocious pass rush off the edge. Quinn favors strong tough, fast, somewhat light defensive ends who can both play the run and rush the passer. Quinn's problem is that the previous regime disassembled what had been a pretty decent group of edge players and now he and the front office must rebuild the unit from scratch. Quinn did bring Dorance Armstrong with him over from Dallas.  Armstrong, who played six seasons in Big D, was a 2018 fourth-round pick from Kansas. In 2023, he played 446 defensive snaps, recording 38 tackles (20/18), 7 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 12 QB hits, and 1 blocked pass. His PFF grades were 69.7/72.4/69.6, ranking #49 of 112. Against Tampa, he took 37 defensive snaps, recording a one tackle assist and one QB hit. His PFF grades were 56.5/73.5/62.5.

Starting opposite Armstrong is Clelin Ferrell, originally drafted #4 overall in 2019 by the Raiders. Ferrell, who has overall been a disappointment, played 2023 in San Francisco. In 471 defensive snaps, he recorded 28 tackles (15/13), 7 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 13 QB hits, 1 blocked pass, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery. His PFF grades were 47.4/60.4/60.7, ranking #82/112.

Joining the above two on the edge is Dante Fowler, drafted in 2015 by Jacksonville with the #3 overall pick (Florida). Like Ferrell, Fowler's career has been a bit of a disappointment. His best year was 2019, when he recorded 11.5 sacks for the Raiders. Like Armstrong, Fowler comes to Washington after playing 2023 in Dallas. Originally an outside linebacker, Quinn has since converted Fowler to a three-point-stance hand-in-the-dirt defensive end. Last season, he took 270 defensive snaps for the Cowboys, recording 13 tackles (8/5), 5 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 7 QB hits, and 1 forced fumble. His PFF scores were 62.0/69.9/63.8. Fowler took 21 defensive snaps against Tampa, recording two tackles (1/1), with 1 TFL. His PFF grades were 71.7/46.1/59.1.

Moved to the edge this season is former first-round pick Jamin Davis. The 2021 #17 overall pick from Kentucky, Davis, at 6'3"/234, is undersized for an edge/DE yet, at least against Tampa, that was where he played. Davis is very quick and has definite big-play capability. In 2023, as more of a traditional outside linebacker, he took 743 defensive snaps, recording 89 tackles (50/39), 8 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 3 QB hits, 4 passes defended, and two forced fumbles. His 2023 PFF grades were 76.1(run), 76.1(pass rush), 56.5(coverage), 67.6(overall), ranking #37 of 82 qualifying LBs. Against Tampa, he took just 13 defensive snaps, recording 3 tackles (2/1) and 1 TFL, with excellent PFF grades of 83.8/52.0/78.8.

Washington's fifth-and-final edge rusher is Javontae Jean-Baptiste, a rookie seventh-round pick from Notre Dame. Jean-Baptiste took 20 defensive snaps last Sunday with straight zeroes across the stat sheet. His PFF scores were 65.1/46.1/58.6.

Linebackers

As stated, Washington plays a 4-2-5 set, with two inside linebackers on the field most every play. To quarterback the defense Dan Quinn brought in the venerable Bobby Wagner, his old friend from his days in Seattle. Originally a 2012 second pick from Utah State, the now 34-year-old Wagner had a terrific 2023 season, recording 183 tackles (96/87), 11 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 6 QB hits, 3 passes defended, and 1 fumble recovery. Always an iron man, Wagner played 1170 (98%) of the Seattle defensive snaps. His 2023 PFF grades were 91.5(run), 75.1(coverage), 60.0(pass rush), 82.4(overall), ranking #7 of 82 qualifying linebackers. Against Tampa, Wagner had 10 tackles (5/5) and 3 TFL, grading 72.8/43.0/72.8/56.4. Wagner played all 64 of the defensive snaps.

Washington brought former Carolina Panther Frankie Luvu to play alongside Wagner.  IN 2023, the somewhat slightly built (6'3"/235) Luvu took 990 (94%) of the Panther defensive snaps. He recorded 125 tackles (66/59), 10 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 11 QB hits, 5 passes defended, and two forced fumbles. Luvu had excellent 2023 PFF scores of 74.0/90.1/67.7/80.0, ranking #10 of 82. Against Tampa, Luvu took 59 of the defensive snaps. He recorded 5 tackles (1/4), receiving PFF grades of 76.1/50.7/47.7/50.7. Subbing in for Luvu on five defensive snaps was Mykal Walker, a fifth-year player from Fresno State. Walker recorded two tackles (1/1) with PFF grades of 60.0(run), 62.7(coverage), 65.9(overall).

Cornerbacks

Starting left corner Emmanuel Forbes suffered a thumb injury against Tampa and is out for Sunday's Giants game. Forbes, a 2023 first-round pick (#16 overall) from Mississippi State, has, to-date, been a big-time disappointment. In 2023, with 482 defensive snaps, he recorded 38 tackles (35/3), 2 TFL, 11 passes defended, and 1 interception. His 2023 PFF grades were downright terrible. Forbes had a poor 57.6 grade for coverage, an astronomically bad 28.4 in run support, and an overall grade of 50.9, ranking him #112 of 127 qualifying quarterbacks. Starting in Forbes' place will likely be Noah Igbinoghene. A 2020 Miami Dolphins' first-round pick, Igbinoghene has had a very disappointing career.  After three seasons in Miami, he spent 2023 in Dallas, suiting up for just five games and 25 defensive snaps. Against Tampa, he did take 28 defensive snaps, recording a tackle assist and one pass defended. He earned a terrific coverage grade of 81.1, a mediocre run support grade of 44.3, and a solid overall grade of 72.3.

Starting opposite will be Benjamin Saint-Juste, a 2021 third-round pick from Minnesota. A solid-if-unspectacular player, the 2023 Saint-Juste took 1064 (91%) defensive snaps. He recorded 67 tackles (52/15), 1 TFL, 1,0 sacks, 1 QB hit, 17 passes defended, 1 interception, and 2 forced fumbles. His PFF scores were 56.4(coverage), 75.1 (run support), 59.9(overall) ranking #82 of 127. Against Tampa, Saint-Juste played all 64 of the defensive snaps, recording 5 solo tackles and one pass defended. His PFF grades for the game were 59.1/67.9/61.4.

The starting slot corner is rookie second-round pick Mike Sainristil. A 2023 National Champion at Michigan, Sainristil seems slated for big responsibilities in the Washington defense. As noted above, Sainristil often plays up quite close to the line and near or even over the offensive tackle, giving the Washington 4-2 set a more traditional, but false, 4-3 look. Sainristil is also utilized to blitz. Against Tampa, he took 61 of the 64 defensive snaps, recording 6 tackles (5/1) and 4 pass rushes. By my eye, he had a poor game; the PFF scorekeepers apparently agree. He graded just 40.8 for coverage, 49.6 in run support, 52.4 for pass rush, and 40.7 overall, which, for the week, ranked him #92 of 94 qualifying corners.

Likely to see snaps at corner this week is former Charger Michael Davis. A 2017 UDFA from BYU, Davis played seven seasons with the Chargers, with 74 starts. In 2023, he started 12 games and took 885 defensive snaps. He recorded 62 tackles (52/10), 3 TFL, 10 passes defended, and one interception. He earned PFF grades of 54.3/64.1/56.5, ranking #96 of 127. Davis did not play against Tampa.

Safeties

This off-season, Washington brought in Jeremy Chinn from Carolina to play strong safety. A 2020 second-round pick from S. Illinois, the big (6'3"/220), tough Chinn took just 286 snaps for the Panthers in 2023 as he was hobbled with hamstring issues. He did record 30 tackles (18/12), 2 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 QB hit, and 1 pass defended. His PFF grades were 51.6(coverage), 68.1(run support), 58.4(Pass rush), and 57.7(overall). Chinn took 51 snaps against Tampa, recording 3 tackles (2/1). His PFF grades were 53.1/65.4/57.1/56.1.

Starting free safety Quan Martin is a late addition to the Washington injury report after having suffered a hamstring injury during Friday's practice. A 2023 second-round pick from Illinois, Martin had a decent rookie season, recording 46 tackles (28/18), 1 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 passes defended, and two interceptions. He earned PFF grades of 66.4/58.8/90.7/65.4, ranking #55 of 95 qualifying safeties. Martin took 59 snaps against Tampa, recording 9 tackles (8/1), but had difficulties in coverage. His awful PFF cover grade of 36.0 was somewhat offset by a solid run support grade of 80.7, yielding mediocre 46.0 overall.

If Martin is unable to go, Percy Butler is his likely replacement. Butler, a 2022 fourth-round pick from Louisiana-Lafayette, was a 2023 starter, taking 836 defensive snaps. He recorded 64 tackles (35/29), 2 TFL, 8 passes defended, and 1 forced fumble. His 2023 PFF grades were 58.0/71.2/62.5/62.7, ranking #65 of 95. Sixth year vet Jeremy Reaves and rookie UDFA Tyler Owens are both carried on the roster as safeties but both are, essentially, specialty teams only players. Both took 14 ST snaps against Tampa but neither took a defensive snap.

Special Teams

Kicker Cade York was 0/2 on field goals against Tampa and was subsequently released earlier this week. In his place, Washington brought in journeyman Austin Seibert. Originally a Browns' 2019 fifth-round pick, Seibert kicked in just 15 games in the past four seasons. Career-wise he is 45/53 on field goals (19 of 30 on kicks of 40+) and 56/62 on extra points.

Returning as punter is the venerable 34-year-old Tress Way. In 2023, Way had a gross average of 46.0 (#26), a net of 41.2 (#26), 30 punts inside the 20 (#10), 25 fair catches, only 2 touchbacks, with a return average of 8.0 (11th best). Last week against Tampa, he had three punts for a 46.3 gross, 41.3 net, 1 punt inside the 20, and 1 return for 15 yards.

Austin Ekeler returned two kick offs against Tampa for 48 total yards (24.0/return). Jamison Crowder is the punt returner, but did not return a punt against Tampa.

[bamagiantfan]

Right now this Defense is more about potential than substance. They traded away their pass rushers on Halloween last season and have replaced them and other departures with older, lesser personnel. The Giants are catching them at a good time and need to win this game. Contests against better talent are coming over the next 15 weeks. If they lose this one, I struggle to see how they will fare well in future games without significant improvement.