QB EPA per play

[MightyGiants]

[kartanoman]

Good morning, Rich @MightyGiants .

May I ask your help to use the term first and then the acronym as I do not know what EPA is.

Environmental Protection Agency is the first thing which comes to mind.

I thank you, sir!

Peace!

[MightyGiants]

Good morning, Rich @MightyGiants .

May I ask your help to use the term first and then the acronym as I do not know what EPA is.

Environmental Protection Agency is the first thing which comes to mind.

I thank you, sir!

Peace!

It's a bit complex, but this article does a pretty good job explaining it


https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/

[H-Town G-Fan]

This is only for 3rd and 4th down. The EPA/Play for all downs is included below:

[Bob In PA]

There's my guy Daniels at the top of the heap. 

My pre-draft question was whether it was Daniels, Nabers or both who made LSU so tough last yr.

I still don't know for sure, but the evidence is strongly leaning to the conclusion that it was both.

Bob

[Bob In PA]

This is only for 3rd and 4th down. The EPA/Play for all downs is included below:

H-T: Fair enough, and thanks for adding it. Bob

[MightyGiants]

There's my guy Daniels at the top of the heap. 

My pre-draft question was whether it was Daniels, Nabers or both who made LSU so tough last yr.

I still don't know for sure, but the evidence is strongly leaning to the conclusion that it was both.

Bob

So far, Daniels is the only one of the rookie QBs to play well.   I didn't have much doubt about Daniels' QB ability, but my concern with him is staying healthy.  With his slight frame and aggressive play style, it seems a matter of when, rather than if, he will suffer a significant injury.

[H-Town G-Fan]

As we all predicted, Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold are among the league leaders in EPA/play.

[EDjohnst1981]

This is only for 3rd and 4th down. The EPA/Play for all downs is included below:

So does this mean that he's putting up 0.01 fewer points than expected?

If so, who sets the expected points targets?

I'm not sure what either graph - the full one or the last 2 weeks - really adds anything to conversation around Jones.

[MightyGiants]

So does this mean that he's putting up 0.01 fewer points than expected?

If so, who sets the expected points targets?

I'm not sure what either graph - the full one or the last 2 weeks - really adds anything to conversation around Jones.

Having done more studies on EPA (thanks to the link I provided), I realized that both charts are less than ideal.   If you want to judge a QB, you should be looking at EPA per dropback.  Otherwise, a QB like Jones is penalized by the piss-poor running game.

[EDjohnst1981]

Having done more studies on EPA (thanks to the link I provided), I realized that both charts are less than ideal.   If you want to judge a QB, you should be looking at EPA per dropback.  Otherwise, a QB like Jones is penalized by the piss-poor running game.

Yes and the lesser seen victory formation etc.

[MightyGiants]

Yes and the lesser seen victory formation etc.

... and Joe Judge enters the chat   

[Bob In PA]

As we all predicted, Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold are among the league leaders in EPA/play.

   

[H-Town G-Fan]

So does this mean that he's putting up 0.01 fewer points than expected?

To shorthand it, EPA looks at the points a team historically scores from a particular field position, down, and distance (and other factors). To judge how much a player added (or didn't add), you look at the game states before and after the play. Just for example, if you had 1 point expected before the play and 7 expected after (a touchdown, obviously), you added 6 points via that play.

So it's not necessarily what a player is "expected" to put up, but rather are the plays one is involved in adding to the chance that the Giants score points versus what history tells us about the situation. Now, this obviously doesn't control for everything (quality of defense faced, for example).

If so, who sets the expected points targets?

History of the NFL.

I'm not sure what either graph - the full one or the last 2 weeks - really adds anything to conversation around Jones.

EPA is used in developing QBR (the ESPN-style stat, not passer rating), so it's encompassed there. And to be clear, the initial graph was only for EPA/play on 3rd and 4th down, not weeks 3 and 4. So the graph I linked to shows you EPA/play for all downs this season.

[H-Town G-Fan]

Having done more studies on EPA (thanks to the link I provided), I realized that both charts are less than ideal.  If you want to judge a QB, you should be looking at EPA per dropback.  Otherwise, a QB like Jones is penalized by the piss-poor running game.

Jones' EPA/pass is almost identical to his EPA/play: