QB EPA per play

[MightyGiants]

Jones' EPA/pass is almost identical to his EPA/play:

Interesting, so you are saying that DJ's EPA per pass is better than

Prescott
Hurts
Stafford
Herbert
Love
Minshew
Tua
Goff
Lawerence
Richardson

[MightyGiants]

@H-Town G-Fan

I found this

[H-Town G-Fan]

@H-Town G-Fan

I found this

This is just week 4. Your point?

[H-Town G-Fan]

Interesting, so you are saying that DJ's EPA per pass is better than

Prescott
Hurts
Stafford
Herbert
Love
Minshew
Tua
Goff
Lawerence
Richardson

I'm, of course, not saying anything. You said rushing hurt DJ's EPA/play. EPA/pass doesn't include that. Pretty simple.

[MightyGiants]

This is just week 4. Your point?

Since you seem to be fond of more information, I thought you would like to see how week 4 went. 

[MightyGiants]

I'm, of course, not saying anything. You said rushing hurt DJ's EPA/play. EPA/pass doesn't include that. Pretty simple.

So, what do you think about DJ being better than so many of the name QBs whose play is routinely praised?

[Ed Vette]

Daniels is the real deal and the reason Wash has been so competitive. Keep an eye on him, Williams, and Nix to watch their trend. The best time to look at this is mid-season to balance out the competition faced and how young QBs progress or not.

[H-Town G-Fan]

So, what do you think about DJ being better than so many of the name QBs whose play is routinely praised?

Obviously, the data set is incomplete at this point--basically 1/4 of the way there--so I'm not in the business of declaring someone "better" because their EPA/play at this point is marginally higher than another (and a lot of the people in the middle of this graph are basically within the standard deviation of one another, so the distinction is somewhat meaningless). By extension, I'm also not in the business of declaring Jones "worse" than other players above him on the graph, like Justin Fields and Andy Dalton. I seriously doubt you would entertain any argument that they are superior QBs to Jones.

But also, EPA is just one way to measure a QB's production (as you well know--I believe you usually relied on QBR/EPA, passer rating, and PFF if my memory serves). Daniel Jones has usually performed about league average in EPA through his career (using ESPN's QBR as a proxy). The raw data from this year shows DJ about league-average in EPA/play and EPA/pass. We're seeing basically the same DJ that we've seen his entire career: an average player by EPA at the QB position. What we are not seeing is some leap in production with vastly improved pass blocking and a star wide receiver.

Also, "expected points" don't win you games. Actual points do. And the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in scoring.

[MightyGiants]

Obviously, the data set is incomplete at this point--basically 1/4 of the way there--so I'm not in the business of declaring someone "better" because their EPA/play at this point is marginally higher than another (and a lot of the people in the middle of this graph are basically within the standard deviation of one another, so the distinction is somewhat meaningless). By extension, I'm also not in the business of declaring Jones "worse" than other players above him on the graph, like Justin Fields and Andy Dalton. I seriously doubt you would entertain any argument that they are superior QBs to Jones.

But also, EPA is just one way to measure a QB's production (as you well know--I believe you usually relied on QBR/EPA, passer rating, and PFF if my memory serves). Daniel Jones has usually performed about league average in EPA through his career (using ESPN's QBR as a proxy). The raw data from this year shows DJ about league-average in EPA/play and EPA/pass. We're seeing basically the same DJ that we've seen his entire career: an average player by EPA at the QB position. What we are not seeing is some leap in production with vastly improved pass blocking and a star wide receiver.

Also, "expected points" don't win you games. Actual points do. And the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in scoring.

If DJ has managed to exceed name QBs and is, as you say, middle of the pack despite a terrible first game and struggling with his long ball.   Imagine if DJ is able to fix his issues with the long ball, and he has more games to offset what is currently 25% of his play (which is the Vikings game).  Interestingly enough, it seems most QBs have struggled when playing the Vikings.

[H-Town G-Fan]

If DJ has managed to exceed name QBs and is, as you say, middle of the pack despite a terrible first game and struggling with his long ball.  Imagine if DJ is able to fix his issues with the long ball, and he has more games to offset what is currently 25% of his play (which is the Vikings game).  Interestingly enough, it seems most QBs have struggled when playing the Vikings.

I'm sure you can make similar overtures about the players below him improving in the coming weeks--I'd be willing to bet you go on an Eagles board and hear about how Hurts can improve, or a Chargers' board and Herbert returning to form. Suffice it to say I'd imagine all QBs can get better by EPA (save for those at the tippy-top of the league). And they can also get worse. On balance, I don't find any reason to believe that DJ is more prone to improving over the course of the remainder of the season than any other player. So it's relatively meaningless to me. And from an anecdotal standpoint, I haven't seen anything to suggest DJ improving with the deep pass. Certainly possible, but the misses we've seen in recent weeks do not indicate an upward trend.

[Ed Vette]

Isn't this really about the Offense and not just the QB? Doesn't the execution of the QB, Oline, Receivers and TE's affect the EPA of every QB? How about the Play call? It's touted as a means of measuring the QB.

[EDjohnst1981]

The problem with the weekly or even quarterly snapshot is the fact we likely aren't knowledgable about the injuries of the supporting pillars. For example, Hurts is playing without his 1 and 2 wideouts, Stafford has a raft of injuries to his weapons and Herbert is clearly hampered by an injury.

I cannot comment on the others as there's only so much time in a week. What I will say, there was a raft of comment over the summer about supporting cast, so we need to be mindful of drawing any conclusions from such a small sample of week to week play.

[H-Town G-Fan]

Isn't this really about the Offense and not just the QB? Doesn't the execution of the QB, Oline, Receivers and TE's affect the EPA of every QB? How about the Play call? It's touted as a means of measuring the QB.

That's true of attempts, completions, pass yards, touchdowns, interceptions... basically everything. No statistic in football is free of variables. If it's a failing of EPA, it's a failing of virtually every objective measure of a player's performance we have.

[MightyGiants]

I'm sure you can make similar overtures about the players below him improving in the coming weeks--I'd be willing to bet you go on an Eagles board and hear about how Hurts can improve, or a Chargers' board and Herbert returning to form. Suffice it to say I'd imagine all QBs can get better by EPA (save for those at the tippy-top of the league). And they can also get worse. On balance, I don't find any reason to believe that DJ is more prone to improving over the course of the remainder of the season than any other player. So it's relatively meaningless to me. And from an anecdotal standpoint, I haven't seen anything to suggest DJ improving with the deep pass. Certainly possible, but the misses we've seen in recent weeks do not indicate an upward trend.

Did those other QBs have a terrible week one (likely due to rust) and have since strung together 3 good weeks?   As for the long ball, DJ struggled early in training camp but eventually started hitting on his longer throws.   Do you think it's possible that can happen in the regular season as well?

[Ed Vette]

That's true of attempts, completions, pass yards, touchdowns, interceptions... basically everything. No statistic in football is free of variables. If it's a failing of EPA, it's a failing of virtually every objective measure of a player's performance we have.

Exactly. That's why I trust film review and isolating. Putting together a variety of metrics usually can paint an accurate picture. That includes the effectiveness of the Rushing Attack, which contrary to what some here believe, affects the passing game.

Like I've said before, I like trends and a large body of work comparison. Take away the first game, and DJ may statistically be a top-ten QB or close to it. Even though, I claim plays were left on the field.