Good teams draft QBs

[coggs]

Seems to me the "good teams" draft QBs. Look at teams like GB and 49ers. GB had Brett Farve and still drafted Rodgers, then while Rodgers was on the roster, they drafted Love. 49ers Had Montana and still took Steve Young, and then took Jeff Garcia and Elvis Grbac. Took Alex Smith and while still on the roster they took Colin Kaepernack. Had Garroppolo and  and then drafted Trey Lance and then Perdy. Patriots were similar and KC to some degree.


The draft is an important tool to improve at every position on the team, yet some teams seem to be reluctant to draft QBs. These teams wait until the last minute, until they are desperate for a QB and when you wait until the last minute, things don't always go so well.


I have heard that this draft class as it pertains to the QB class "isnt very good". Well how do you really know? The 2021 draft was to be a good draft for QBs and look what happened.


It brings me to this upcoming draft. The Giants should take a flier on a QB in the 1st or 2nd round. Anything is better than what we have on our roster right now.

I have seen Quinn Ewers projected to the Giants and to me I say fine ( I would be happy with any QB drafted at this point) . I don't think we should stop there, perhaps draft one more in the 3rd round, Someone like Dart or Garrett Nussmeier. At the very least we would have two QBs on rookie salaries, and might find our future starter or a solid back up QB.


Getting a QB and RT would help turn things around. The Giants should always be willing to improve at every position, the Giants shouldnt wait until the last minute either. 2018 was the time for the Giants to have drafted a QB. Eli would have been here and the kid could have sat an entire year to learn.

Steve Young was not drafted by the 49ers and if not for Leonard Marshall, may have never been a starter in the NFL

[coggs]

I don't know if that is quite the case.

Tim Brady, Brett Favre, Drew Brees to name a few of some of the better QBs of the last couple/few decades all were drafted after round one.  Rodgers was a late pick in round one.  I know we have some really good QBs playing that are 1st rounders.  I just wanted to point out some of the greats were not. 

You just never really know.

And the most recent of those post first round picks was more than 20 years ago.  Shall we start naming all the Giants post-1st round qb draftees and how well they worked out?

[Doc16LT56]

That's really not the case, as I pointed out in my last past. 

You're talking about possibility rather than probability.

Any GM whose strategy is to find a franchise QB in the middle of the draft is most likely not qualified for the job. The correct approach (for highest probability of success) is to identify a special talent, draft that player with a top draft pick, and then do your best to develop the player into a franchise QB.

It's possible to find a franchise QB in the middle of the draft the same way it's possible to connect on a hail mary pass. You don't plan your future on a hail mary. It's something you use when you have nothing to lose.

[MightyGiants]

The Jets drafted two QBs in recent memory

The Jags drafted a QB number one overall (highly touted) and are no better off than the Giants

The Panthers drafted a QB number one after trading up, and arguably they are worse off than the Giants

The Cards drafted two first-round QBs in consecutive years, and they are not exactly world-beaters.


The reality is that good teams that draft QBs tend to hit on those picks more often than poor teams drafting QBs hoping for their luck to change.  When people talk about the fortunes of the Texans and the Commanders turning around, they don't mention that the coaching staff was overhauled as well. 

As to why good teams tend to hit on QBs more than poor teams

1)  Stability: the HC that had a vision for the QB prospect sticks around and is a good enough HC to have a proper QB development plan

2) Besides consistency, developing QBs need to have reasonable protection and, ideally, a few receivers to throw to.  It's tough to learn how to play in the NFL if you are constantly running for your life or you are constantly running through your progressions without success.


Look at Daniel Jones; he is the second-most sacked QB this year (according to the MNF broadcast) and the 3rd most in his career.  It's not hard to see the beating he took in the NFL (along with instability at leadership, protection, and receiving) leading to the lack of confidence, which leads to the high anxiety that leads to so many stupid errors on the field. 

[MrGap92]

He puts himself in a lot of these positions where he is sacked, some of it he does to himself.

That doesn't excuse the poor OL he has had in years past by any mean, just saying.

[MightyGiants]

He puts himself in a lot of these positions where he is sacked, some of it he does to himself.

That doesn't excuse the poor OL he has had in years past by any mean, just saying.

Just look at the start of the Steelers game where he absorbed big hits after throwing completions and then consider this:

In the new book by Tom Coughlin:  He was talking about Tom Brady and the 2007 Super Bowl.  The quote was- "... there's not a quarterback alive whose performance doesn't suffer when they are hit hard and hit often"


Then consider how a QB can develop when he is not just getting sacks, but is constantly being hit

Another quote-  "Brady's as tough as they come, but if you knock any quarterback down repeatedly, he starts to wear down and expect it, and when a quarterback is looking for where the next hit is coming from, that throws off everything."

[T200]

The Jets drafted two QBs in recent memory

The Jags drafted a QB number one overall (highly touted) and are no better off than the Giants

The Panthers drafted a QB number one after trading up, and arguably they are worse off than the Giants

The Cards drafted two first-round QBs in consecutive years, and they are not exactly world-beaters.


The reality is that good teams that draft QBs tend to hit on those picks more often than poor teams drafting QBs hoping for their luck to change.  When people talk about the fortunes of the Texans and the Commanders turning around, they don't mention that the coaching staff was overhauled as well. 

As to why good teams tend to hit on QBs more than poor teams

1)  Stability: the HC that had a vision for the QB prospect sticks around and is a good enough HC to have a proper QB development plan

2) Besides consistency, developing QBs need to have reasonable protection and, ideally, a few receivers to throw to.  It's tough to learn how to play in the NFL if you are constantly running for your life or you are constantly running through your progressions without success.


Look at Daniel Jones; he is the second-most sacked QB this year (according to the MNF broadcast) and the 3rd most in his career.  It's not hard to see the beating he took in the NFL (along with instability at leadership, protection, and receiving) leading to the lack of confidence, which leads to the high anxiety that leads to so many stupid errors on the field. 

Isn't that a little contradictory? You say the good teams tend to hit because of stability but point out that two teams that hit recently have new coaching staffs.

I'm more inclined to go with your reasoning of player development. An organization that can transform the talent to on-field production will likely see more success, regardless of the position. And yes, I also agree with you that the HC, for the most part, sets the tone and vision for that to happen.

[MightyGiants]

Isn't that a little contradictory? You say the good teams tend to hit because of stability but point out that two teams that hit recently have new coaching staffs.

I'm more inclined to go with your reasoning of player development. An organization that can transform the talent to on-field production will likely see more success, regardless of the position. And yes, I also agree with you that the HC, for the most part, sets the tone and vision for that to happen.

The new coaching staffs drafted the new QBs.   How would that be a lack of stability for the new QB?

[T200]

The new coaching staffs drafted the new QBs.   How would that be a lack of stability for the new QB?

If the coaching staff is new, what stability have they provided? What evidence is there to suggest that the new coach "is a good enough HC to have a proper QB development plan"?

Not trying to pick nits... just doesn't compute that a guy coming in the door is providing some type of stability and consistency. To me, that's built over time.

[MightyGiants]

If the coaching staff is new, what stability have they provided? What evidence is there to suggest that the new coach "is a good enough HC to have a proper QB development plan"?

Not trying to pick nits... just doesn't compute that a guy coming in the door is providing some type of stability and consistency. To me, that's built over time.

Tim,

I think you missed my point.  When you draft any player, particularly QB, you look at the player's skill set (with QB, which can vary greatly), and you envision a system in which you can see the prospect thriving.  So, you draft a QB with a plan.

You change coaching staff, and now you have a quarterback with a skill set that likely doesn't match what the new head coach is looking for.   Change it three times and even less likely, especially if the QB hasn't established himself.

I have heard many a knowledgeable analysis comment that Daboll seems less concerned about putting Jones in a system that plays to his strengths, but rather Daboll is running the system he wants to run.   Is it any wonder that we see the version of Jones we saw under Garrett, rather than the one we saw when Daboll played to Jones' strengths (circa 2022)?

With all this said, hopefully, you will appreciate what I am saying about stability with QB.  It doesn't matter what happened prior to the regime that drafts the QB; it matters the stability moving forward.

[uconnjack8]

I think drafting a QB is one thing, but drafting the right one is another. 

One note, the 49ers didn't draft Steve Young, he was in the USFL and then played for TB.  Regardless I get your point that in order to stay competitive for long periods of time you need to be able to successfully find the right QBs.  GB is a rare example where they replaced a HOFer with another HOFer.  I don't know if there is another team in the Super Bowl era that has done that. 

The Giants drafted Jones while Eli was still there.  For whatever reason a QB has not been drafted since 2019 which is not the norm for a team that prior to Jones, drafted QBs regularly in the mid to later rounds (Webb, Lauletta, Nassib). 

As for "taking a flier" on a QB in round 1 or 2, I feel like that phrase is generally used when taking a guy later with some red flag on his scouting report.  I think this team needs to draft a QB, but I don't think they should just "take a flier" on someone who they don't feel fits the position at the NFL level. 

You say anything is better than what is on the roster, but do you think the Colts feel that way about Anthony Richardson right now?  They drafted him as the #4 overall pick and in year 2 he was benched because he absolutely awful.  He may rebound and be fine in a year or two or four, but for right now the people in that organization that argued to pick him are now worried for their jobs. 

Here is a list of all the QBs taken since 2017.  Pretty low percentage of success.


                                Pick    Player Name    Team            College
2024    1    1    1    1    Caleb Williams    Bears            USC
    2    1    2    2    Jayden Daniels    Commanders    Louisiana State
    3    1    3    3    Drake Maye    Patriots    North Carolina
    4    1    8    8    Michael Penix    Falcons    Washington
    5    1    10    10    J.J. McCarthy    Vikings    Michigan
    6    1    12    12    Bo Nix    Broncos    Oregon
    7    5    15    150    Spencer Rattler    Saints    South Carolina
    8    5    36    171    Jordan Travis    Jets    Florida State
    9    6    17    193    Joe Milton    Patriots    Tennessee
    10    6    42    218    Devin Leary    Ravens    Kentucky
    11    7    25    245    Michael Pratt    Packers    Tulane
2023    1    1    1    1    Bryce Young    Panthers    Alabama
    2    1    2    2    C.J. Stroud    Texans    Ohio State
    3    1    4    4    Anthony Richardson    Colts    Florida
    4    2    2    33    Will Levis    Titans    Kentucky
    5    3    5    68    Hendon Hooker    Lions    Tennessee
    6    4    25    127    Jake Haener    Saints    Fresno State
    7    4    26    128    Stetson Bennett    Rams    Georgia
    8    4    33    135    Aidan O'Connell    Raiders    Purdue
    9    5    4    139    Clayton Tune    Cardinals    Houston
    10    5    5    140    Dorian Thompson-Robinson    Browns    UCLA
    11    5    14    149    Sean Clifford    Packers    Penn State
    12    5    29    164    Jaren Hall    Vikings    Brigham Young
    13    6    11    188    Tanner McKee    Eagles    Stanford
    14    7    22    239    Max Duggan    Chargers    Texas Christian
2022    1    1    20    20    Kenny Pickett    Steelers    Pittsburgh
    2    3    10    74    Desmond Ridder    Falcons    Cincinnati
    3    3    22    86    Malik Willis    Titans    Liberty
    4    3    30    94    Matt Corral    Panthers    Mississippi
    5    4    32    137    Bailey Zappe    Patriots    Western Kentucky
    6    5    1    144    Sam Howell    Commanders    North Carolina
    7    7    20    241    Chris Oladokun    Steelers    South Dakota State
    8    7    26    247    Skylar Thompson    Dolphins    Kansas State
    9    7    41    262    Brock Purdy    49ers    Iowa State
2021    1    1    1    1    Trevor Lawrence    Jaguars    Clemson
    2    1    2    2    Zach Wilson    Jets    Brigham Young
    3    1    3    3    Trey Lance    49ers    North Dakota State
    4    1    11    11    Justin Fields    Bears    Ohio State
    5    1    15    15    Mac Jones    Patriots    Alabama
    6    2    32    64    Kyle Trask    Buccaneers    Florida
    7    3    2    66    Kellen Mond    Vikings    Texas A&M
    8    3    3    67    Davis Mills    Texans    Stanford
    9    4    28    133    Ian Book    Saints    Notre Dame
    10    6    34    218    Sam Ehlinger    Colts    Texas
2020    1    1    1    1    Joe Burrow    Bengals    Louisiana State
    2    1    5    5    Tua Tagovailoa    Dolphins    Alabama
    3    1    6    6    Justin Herbert    Chargers    Oregon
    4    1    26    26    Jordan Love    Packers    Utah State
    5    2    21    53    Jalen Hurts    Eagles    Oklahoma
    6    4    16    122    Jacob Eason    Colts    Washington
    7    4    19    125    James Morgan    Jets    Florida International
    8    5    21    167    Jake Fromm    Bills    Georgia
    9    6    10    189    Jake Luton    Jaguars    Oregon State
    10    7    10    224    Cole McDonald    Titans    Hawaii
    11    7    17    231    Ben DiNucci    Cowboys    James Madison
    12    7    26    240    Tommy Stevens    Saints    Mississippi State
    13    7    30    244    Nate Stanley    Vikings    Iowa
2019    1    1    1    1    Kyler Murray    Cardinals    Oklahoma
    2    1    6    6    Daniel Jones    Giants    Duke
    3    1    15    15    Dwayne Haskins    Redskins    Ohio State
    4    2    10    42    Drew Lock    Broncos    Missouri
    5    3    36    100    Will Grier    Panthers    West Virginia
    6    4    2    104    Ryan Finley    Bengals    North Carolina State
    7    4    31    133    Jarrett Stidham    Patriots    Auburn
    8    5    28    166    Easton Stick    Chargers    North Dakota State
    9    5    29    167    Clayton Thorson    Eagles    Northwestern
    10    6    5    178    Gardner Minshew    Jaguars    Washington State
    11    6    24    197    Trace McSorley    Ravens    Penn State
2018    1    1    1    1    Baker Mayfield    Browns    Oklahoma
    2    1    3    3    Sam Darnold    Jets    USC
    3    1    7    7    Josh Allen    Bills    Wyoming
    4    1    10    10    Josh Rosen    Cardinals    UCLA
    5    1    32    32    Lamar Jackson    Ravens    Louisville
    6    3    12    76    Mason Rudolph    Steelers    Oklahoma State
    7    4    8    108    Kyle Lauletta    Giants    Richmond
    8    5    34    171    Mike White    Cowboys    Western Kentucky
    9    6    25    199    Luke Falk    Titans    Washington State
    10    6    29    203    Tanner Lee    Jaguars    Nebraska
    11    7    1    219    Danny Etling    Patriots    Louisiana State
    12    7    2    220    Alex McGough    Seahawks    Florida International
    13    7    31    249    Logan Woodside    Bengals    Toledo
2017    1    1    2    2    Mitchell Trubisky    Bears    North Carolina
    2    1    10    10    Patrick Mahomes    Chiefs    Texas Tech
    3    1    12    12    Deshaun Watson    Texans    Clemson
    4    2    20    52    DeShone Kizer    Browns    Notre Dame
    5    3    23    87    Davis Webb    Giants    California
    6    3    40    104    C.J. Beathard    49ers    Iowa
    7    4    29    135    Joshua Dobbs    Steelers    Tennessee
    8    5    28    171    Nathan Peterman    Bills    Pittsburgh
    9    6    32    215    Brad Kaaya    Lions    Miami (FL)
    10    7    35    253    Chad Kelly    Broncos    Mississippi

[T200]

Tim,

I think you missed my point. When you draft any player, particularly QB, you look at the player's skill set (with QB, which can vary greatly), and you envision a system in which you can see the prospect thriving.  So, you draft a QB with a plan.

You change coaching staff, and now you have a quarterback with a skill set that likely doesn't match what the new head coach is looking for.   Change it three times and even less likely, especially if the QB hasn't established himself.

I have heard many a knowledgeable analysis comment that Daboll seems less concerned about putting Jones in a system that plays to his strengths, but rather Daboll is running the system he wants to run.   Is it any wonder that we see the version of Jones we saw under Garrett, rather than the one we saw when Daboll played to Jones' strengths (circa 2022)?

With all this said, hopefully, you will appreciate what I am saying about stability with QB.  It doesn't matter what happened prior to the regime that drafts the QB; it matters the stability moving forward.

Perhaps I did. In your first post, I thought you were talking about coaching staff stability. It appears you're talking about QB stability.

[T200]

I have heard many a knowledgeable analysis comment that Daboll seems less concerned about putting Jones in a system that plays to his strengths, but rather Daboll is running the system he wants to run.   Is it any wonder that we see the version of Jones we saw under Garrett, rather than the one we saw when Daboll played to Jones' strengths (circa 2022)?

In 2022, the Giants had the second-most one-score wins, right behind Minnesota. That was with Daboll designing an offensive scheme around Jones. It wasn't enough to make a deep run into the playoffs. The dink-and-dunk, one-read passing game that suits Jones is not a viable offense that will sustain success. It is easily defended.

This year, Daboll is calling a mix of dink-and-dunk to suit Jones's abilities but also showing what he (Daboll) wants to run but can't because of Jones.

[Giant Jim]

Steve Young was not drafted by the 49ers and if not for Leonard Marshall, may have never been a starter in the NFL

The 49er's traded for him while Montana was in his prime. The Giants did this with Otis Anderson. They were prepared like Green Bay has been when the opportunity arises. Now, the Giants wait for the need to fill a position.

[MrGap92]

In 2022, the Giants had the second-most one-score wins, right behind Minnesota. That was with Daboll designing an offensive scheme around Jones. It wasn't enough to make a deep run into the playoffs. The dink-and-dunk, one-read passing game that suits Jones is not a viable offense that will sustain success. It is easily defended.

This year, Daboll is calling a mix of dink-and-dunk to suit Jones's abilities but also showing what he (Daboll) wants to run but can't because of Jones.

If dinking and dunking, is playing to his strengths, does he honestly truly have any legitimate strengths, or things he really excels at?

Work ethic, character, etc sure? But what about on the field when the lights are on?

This is pro football, not milk and cookies at snack time.