Summing up the past decade

[MightyGiants]

Art Stapleton
@art_stapleton
·
12m
Tom Coughlin trying to fix a broken offense by hiring Ben McAdoo.
Giants deciding to not put resources into the defense in 2015, leading to Coughlin's exit.
McAdoo playoffs with Eli in 2016 + $250M defense, only to implode in 2017 with bad locker room, Eli/Geno.
Shurmur being "the adult in the room," Gettleman taking a RB 2nd overall, then forcing a QB because he thought it'd save his job.
Judge the CEO to bring stability, Garrett to fix Jones' turnover problem
Judge and Gettleman at odds, Judge fed up and making decisions to show the GM what a bad hand he gave him
Daboll/Schoen promise reboot, ownership again promises patience
Playoff win, accelerated Year 2
Head coach shows he can win when the chips are down, costs Giants shot at franchise QB
And here we are.

https://x.com/art_stapleton/status/1853444253826920933

[TDToomer]

Judge and Gettleman at odds, Judge fed up and making decisions to show the GM what a bad hand he gave him

Can someone elaborate on this? What decisions did Joe Judge make to show up Gettleman?

[MightyGiants]

Can someone elaborate on this? What decisions did Joe Judge make to show up Gettleman?

From what I have heard the infamous short yardage formation at the Giants 2 yard line was supposedly Judge trying to show up Gettleman.  The idea was that Gettleman's roster was so bad that Judge had no choice but to play it that safe.

[TDToomer]

From what I have heard the infamous short yardage formation at the Giants 2 yard line was supposedly Judge trying to show up Gettleman.  The idea was that Gettleman's roster was so bad that Judge had no choice but to play it that safe.

That's kind of what I thought. That play really stuck out like a sore thumb.

[Painter]

It's not at all obvious as to what is meant by "Summing up the past decade" Stapleton's musings notwithstanding. In any case, what he is leading up to are two simple and fundamental questions which currently are all consuming for Giants fans here and about. They are: What is a fair timeline for teams to rebuild? Where are the Giants on their presumed current timeline?

While there can be, and often are any number of ancillary and qualifying questions, the answer is as the French would say, "Dieu seul le sait et le diable s'en doute" or, in plain anglaise, God only knows and the devil suspects it. No! I'm not being cute!

It has taken me awhile to realize that everything that happens in the NFL is in the final analysis quite often a matter of chance. For all the roles played, the efforts made, and actions taken or not taken, something happens unpredictably with or without discernible intention or observable cause, more often than not. One obvious example is the Annual Draft where the odds statistically of success and/or failure by player position and round are quite compelling not just as summed up for the past decade but for the now almost 5 decades since Our Heroes won the first of their now 4 Lombardi Trophies.

Still, that's just one element of many in illustrating the not always obvious role of chance in so many different ways throughout the NFL's day in and day out history. I'll be happy to elaborate further should anyone here feel a want. À chacun son goût.

Cheers!

[files58]

How many of you are aware that in the past decade(2014-Now) the value of the Giant franchise has grown from $2.1 Billion to $7.3 Billion? So we have, and root for a business that despite putting forward a vastly inferior product has monumentally increased in value. There are different ways to measure "winning". We the fans measure winning in the W-L column, Mara and Co. measure winning in the Balance Sheet, and Income Statement. One would think there is a direct correlation between the two. Obviously not. Despite throwing chairs, and distributing a 5 cent Pepsi does Mara really have an incentive to win in our manner? Really why should he, he's a business man. He has the luxury of saying to paraphrase gee we've done everything to eff up Jones, he's such a nice kid, works hard, I want him around, let's pay him. Schoen and Daboll, yes he works hard, but he sucks, we scouted him, and we would not have drafted him, certainly not at 6. Hence the two year compromise. So we go on sitting down to watch our favorite football team in the same manner as a dental patient saying to his Dentist aren't you going to give me Novocain before starting the root canal. 

[T200]

How many of you are aware that in the past decade(2014-Now) the value of the Giant franchise has grown from $2.1 Billion to $7.3 Billion? So we have, and root for a business that despite putting forward a vastly inferior product has monumentally increased in value. There are different ways to measure "winning". We the fans measure winning in the W-L column, Mara and Co. measure winning in the Balance Sheet, and Income Statement. One would think there is a direct correlation between the two. Obviously not. Despite throwing chairs, and distributing a 5 cent Pepsi does Mara really have an incentive to win in our manner? Really why should he, he's a business man. He has the luxury of saying to paraphrase gee we've done everything to eff up Jones, he's such a nice kid, works hard, I want him around, let's pay him. Schoen and Daboll, yes he works hard, but he sucks, we scouted him, and we would not have drafted him, certainly not at 6. Hence the two year compromise. So we go on sitting down to watch our favorite football team in the same manner as a dental patient saying to his Dentist aren't you going to give me Novocain before starting the root canal. 

Pride and ego.

He's one of 32 billionaires who use several things to enter the pecker-measuring contest:

- $$$
- Championships
- Wins

He's good on the first two but can't measure up on the latter.

"Hey John, are you cold down there in the NFC East dungeon???      "

[Painter]

I should make clear that my thoughts about the influence of chance do not involve one or two plays which have cost the Giants games which I regard as performance issues, mistakes in comparison to say, the juicy steaks of Eli's remarkable escape on the way to David Tyree's famed "Helmet Catch" for which there can be no odds, real or imputed.

However, Eli's 8-0 Playoffs record on his way to two Super Bowl victories over the GOAT, Tom Brady and in the first of such the 18-0 Patriots, has left a lot of folk wondering about the odds, the chances of that having happened with a QB (and team) who otherwise had a 118-118 Regular Season and 0-4 Playoff record which some have described as "profoundly mediocre" yet expect to prove to be HOF-worthy? If chance is not central in that, it's hard to imagine what might be.

On the other hand, the role of chance is much easier to estimate in regard to the annual Player Draft at least in terms of historical data. For example, here is a summary of nearly two decades of the success rates for quarterbacks drafted in the first round:

Franchise QBs: Around 20% of first-round QBs become potential franchise quarterbacks.

Average Starters: About 30% are considered average starters but not franchise material.

Disappointments: Over 50% are considered disappointments, either failing to become quality starters or being complete busts.

It's worth noting that the odds improve slightly for quarterbacks drafted in the top five picks, with a higher percentage becoming Pro Bowlers.

Among the more significant criteria of a First Round player's "success" is whether his team exercises its 5th Year Option for him. In the now currently relevant 2020 Draft class, just 12 of 32 first-round picks had their 5th-year option exercised or contract extended with Andrew Thomas having been one. That might, kinda, sorta suggest a 62.5% failure rate.

Lest we forget, the Giants had 3 first-round picks among 10 overall in 2019. Dex Lawrence was the only one of the three including Daniel Jones and Deandre Baker to have his Option picked up. Moreover, of the 10 total, only Jones, Lawrence, and 5th-rounder Darius Slayton are still on the team.

But if we think that was bad, just consider that of the 16 players drafted during Gettleman/Judge, only the aforementioned Andrew Thomas and Azeez Ojulari remain. Whatever we may think of the subsequent Schoen/Daboll Drafts, including concern about an Evan Neal bust, they have been far superior in comparison.

Don't get me wrong, I am by no means suggesting that Draft success is all about luck but rather that for all concerned the level of uncertainty is great enough to keep the chance cards in a very prominent place numerically.

Cheers!   

Whatever NFL team ownership may mean to any of the particular oligarchs whether a business, a hobby, or a lark, it is a reflection of what has become late-stage Capitalism.