- The Fallacy of the Franchise Quarterback -

[sxdxca38]

If the Giants were scoring as many points as any of those teams they would probably have a winning record right now given their defense is only giving up 22.4 ppg.  So the Giants have a better defense than all 5 teams you listed. The problem is they have the worst offense in the NFL by PPG:

Bengals - 27 PPG
Bucs    - 28.8 PPG
Seahawks - 23.3 PPG
Jags  -  21.7 PPG
Dallas -  21.4 PPG
Giants -  15.4 PPG - Last in the NFL

You are correct, it takes 53 guys.  And the 15th ranked defense doesn't get you much when you have the 32dn ranked offense.  Its not all on Jones, but there is certainly plenty of culpability on his part. 

Did you by any chance watch the Bengals - Ravens last night?  Burrow's pocket presence is other worldly on most plays.  He has a poor pass blocking line.  If you missed it, here is all his completions to Chase who had a career night.  There are a variety of different throws, some from a nice pocket some while moving around.  Some deep, some quick short ones thrown with anticipation. 

https://www.bengals.com/video/ja-marr-chase-highlights-264-yard-3-td-bengals-ravens-week-10-2024

Yes I agree with you, and Burrow is excellent

[Gmo11]

Hi Ed,

That's the point, QB can't do it on his own, nothing more nothing less.

And having a franchise QB does not in of itself guarantee success.

But NOT having one almost guarantees failure. 

[kingm56]

Hi Ed,

That's the point, QB can't do it on his own, nothing more nothing less.

And having a franchise QB does not in of itself guarantee success.

I think you're missing Ed's point; the point is, neither of your conclusions are/were in doubt.  We all agree with you.  Thus, posters fail to understand the impetus of discussing a subject that was never in dispute, which makes it a strawman argument/discussion.

[sxdxca38]

What is the point of this thread? Why does this strawman argument persist from the same few posters?  Literally no one has made the claim that a franchise QB alone guarantees success. The point has always been that it's incredibly difficult to achieve significant success without a plus QB.

Concerning the list of QBs, only Barrow (maybe Dex) is/are considered AP caliber QBs, and the Bengals have been playing good football the last 5 weeks; they're not out of contention yet. Let's take a macro perspective by reviewing each divisions top 2 teams over 500:

Chiefs        8 - 0; Mahomes (2x MVP, 2x AP, 6x Pro Bowl)
Chargers    5 - 3; Herbert (1x Pro Bowl, AP OROY)

Steelers    6 - 2; Wilson (9x Pro Bowl, 1x AP) * Note - Wilson has only played 2 games
Ravens        7 - 3; Jackson (2x MVP, 3x Pro Bowl, 2x AP)

Texans        6 - 3; Stroud (AP OROY, 1x Pro Bowl)

Commanders    7 - 2; Daniels (rookie)
Eagles        6 - 2; Hurts (2x Pro Bowl, 1x AP)

Cardinals    5 - 4; Murray (AP OROY, 2x Pro Bowl)
Rams        4 - 4; Stafford  (2x Pro Bowl)

Lions        7 - 1; Goff (3x Pro Bowl)
Vikings        6 - 2; Darnold (None)

Falcons            6 - 3; Cousins (4x Pro Bowl)

With few exceptions (e.g. Minn and Wash), the NFL's best teams are led by Pro-Bowl caliber QBs; the top teams are led by AP and/or MVP caliber QBs.  So, while a franchise QB doesn't guarantee success, the data suggest it's extremely difficult to consistently win without one., which is the point several have made during DJ's tenure.

Hi,

I appreciate your thoughts here, but the comment that I said was you cannot have sustained success without a franchise QB, however he can't do it alone.

I also appreciate the time you took to look at some of the top QBs and their records, but did you notice the defense that they have?

A) Chargers ranked 1st
B) Steelers ranked 2nd

Ravens, Chiefs, Vikings, and Lions all have top ten defenses I believe. Without the defense playing a significant part, those QBs would struggle finding wins.

I.E. Joe Burrow who is excellent.

[kingm56]

Ravens, Chiefs, Vikings, and Lions all have top ten defenses I believe. Without the defense playing a significant part, those QBs would struggle finding wins.

I.E. Joe Burrow who is excellent.

The defense performance does not negate the offenses/QB's performances.  Plus, you're wrong concerning Balt and Det; The former is literally on pace to become the NFL's most prolific scoring team in history.  Balt has a +65 scoring difference and Det has a WHOPPING +100; they would be winning games without top-tier defenses. 

[sxdxca38]

But NOT having one almost guarantees failure. 

What I would qualify your statement with is not having one doesn't guarantee sustained success.

In other words you may have a successful season here and there but not consistent success.

[sxdxca38]

The defense performance does not negate the offenses/QB's performances.  Plus, you're wrong concerning Balt and Det; The former is literally on pace to become the NFL's most prolific scoring team in history.  Balt has a +65 scoring difference and Det has a WHOPPING +100; they would be winning games without top-tier defenses. 

Actually am I wrong? Or could you have come to an incorrect conclusion?

Detroit and Minnesota have a top 6 and 7th ranked defense.

When you have a strong defense it stops the other team, which gives your offense more opportunities at the plate, which contributes to more points being scored, i.e. a synergistic relationship.

And I know you like to use the word strawman here but there is no straw man.

[kingm56]

Actually am I wrong? Or could you have come to an incorrect conclusion?

Detroit and Minnesota have a top 6 and 7th ranked defense.

When you have a strong defense it stops the other team, which gives your offense more opportunities at the plate, which contributes to more points being scored, i.e. a synergistic relationship.

And I know you like to use the word strawman here but there is no straw man.

Got it; if you want to claim the NFL's #1 and 2 scoring offenses are successful because of thier defenses, go for it. 

[MrGap92]

The only fallacy here is your constant desire to just get a rise of everyone here, calling them wrong and trying to prove it with cherry picked stats while omitting context, logic, or twisting truths to fit a narrative.

This thread is pointless no once is making the assumption you think they are. You just can't accept others opinions.

You end your post saying no right or wrong answer, then challenge half the people who reply. This thread you made is a fallacy in and of itself

[bamagiantfan]

The only fallacy is that you need a top 3 pick to get one. From Bart Starr to Brock Purdy and all the Staubachs, Theismans, Bradys, and Cousins in between, that has never been the case. Find the guy that fits the system you want to run. San Diego was done with Drew Brees and drafted/traded for Ryan Leaf to be the future of the franchise. Only a couple of teams even looked at Brees and he failed his physical with one, only to land in a perfect situation in New Orleans.

The Giants thought Jones was that guy. He wasn't, at least not here. If Daboll is back next year Shoen should be going after the guy Daboll wants. It is hard to separate Daboll's performance from Jones'. It is time to separate them. If at first you don't succeed...

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I've said it before, but I'll repeat my theory.

A franchise QB like Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, et al, have something special and unique. Extreme confidence, and a mindset that they alone can make/force the team to win. It's a mental makeup that can't be predicted. They don't think about numbers, they don't worry what anyone else thinks, they don't become skittish when getting knocked down over and over, they simply believe in themselves and that they can always turn the game around and win. Nothing discourages them. It's in their makeup and personality...which like I said, is impossible to predict...whether from college game stats or college coaches talking him up. Tom Brady didn't have a canon for an arm, not to mention he was a closet smoker since high school, and didn't have notable stats in college...but he had the magic personality for the NFL game. How does one find that?   

[Ed Vette]

How many Super Bowl contests featured teams without a franchise QB?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/superbowl/history/winners

[AZGiantFan]

The Giants thought Jones was that guy. He wasn't, at least not here. If Daboll is back next year Shoen should be going after the guy Daboll wants. It is hard to separate Daboll's performance from Jones'. It is time to separate them. If at first you don't succeed...

Although I have come around to the notion that's time to move on, I still think Jones could have become much more than he has if the Giants hadn't so thoroughly failed him in the three key areas of coaching, OL, and WRs.

[andrew_nyGiants]

You need a franchise Quarterback just like you need an ACE in baseball, just like you need a great Point Guard in basketball.

In order to WIN... in football the Franchise QB still needs the threat of a running game, decent protection by the same players who can open holes and an above average defense to limit the TOP.

To WIN In baseball you still need a decent collection of pitchers(starters and relief), and at least 3 protectors in the batting line-up and at least 6 solid defensive players. .

To WIN in basketball, you still need the physical presence/defender in the lane and a solid collection of perimeter shooters to help your PG.

In summary you cannot ask this question in a vacuum....there are too many moving pieces...with the Franchise you have a chance for them to move in the right direction, without one it's a long shot at best.


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[AZGiantFan]

I've said it before, but I'll repeat my theory.

A franchise QB like Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, et al, have something special and unique. Extreme confidence, and a mindset that they alone can make/force the team to win. It's a mental makeup that can't be predicted. They don't think about numbers, they don't worry what anyone else thinks, they don't become skittish when getting knocked down over and over, they simply believe in themselves and that they can always turn the game around and win. Nothing discourages them. It's in their makeup and personality...which like I said, is impossible to predict...whether from college game stats or college coaches talking him up. Tom Brady didn't have a canon for an arm, not to mention he was a closet smoker since high school, and didn't have notable stats in college...but he had the magic personality for the NFL game. How does one find that?   

I think we are conflating franchise QBs and elite QBs.  There are very few elite QBs but a fair number of franchise QBs.  Right now we have Mahomes, Jackson, as elites, with Burrows and Allen borderline elite, IMO.  But I'd list at least Cousins, Stroud, Purdy, Lawrence, Prescott, Love, and Hurts as Franchise QBs.  If you have one of these guys you aren't looking for a new QB unless one with elite potential falls in your lap, IMO.