- The Fallacy of the Franchise Quarterback -

[sxdxca38]

It is obvious and I think most would agree that you need a franchise QB to win consistently, however is the franchise QB enough by himself to sustain consistent winning records? Let us analyze a few good to elite QB's this year and see what the numbers show:

A) Joe Burrow (elite) projected numbers

68% 4542 yards 41 TD 7 Int 108 RTG

4 wins 6 losses, a losing record

B) Baker Mayfield (good) projected numbers

71% 4513 yards 43 TD 17 Int 105 RTG

4 wins 5 losses, a losing record

C) Geno Smith projected numbers

68% 4836 yards 21 TD 19 Int 88 RTG

4 wins 5 losses, a losing record

D) Trevor Lawrence projected numbers

61% 3785 yards 21 TD 11 Int 87 RTG

2 wins 7 losses, a losing record

E) Dak Prescott (good) projected numbers

64% 4203 yards 23 TD 17 Int 86 RTG

3 wins 5 losses, a losing record

As you can see in all five cases, all five QBs are considered good to elite, and yet with regard to all five QBs they have losing records, but why?

Because each of them are on teams that field terrible defenses, here are the numbers:

A) Cowboys 28.1 ppg ranked 31st
B) Jaguars 28.0 ppg ranked 30th
C) Buccaneers 27.0 ppg ranked 28th
D) Bengals 26.2 ppg ranked 26th
E) Seahawks 24.3 ppg ranked 23rd

As you can see having a franchise QB is great, but just having him alone isn't enough. The data is showing you need a team made up of the other 52 players doing their job to win consistently.

Offense, Defense, and Special Teams all need to be performing at a high level to win consistently in the NFL.

Curious your thoughts if you agree or disagree with me, as there is no right or wrong answer here.

[Doc16LT56]

There is no fallacy. Every thinking person understands a great QB needs his teammates. It would be like saying a car with a great engine can drive without wheels. No one thinks that. What we've been trying to get you and a few others to understand is a race car with a sputtering engine doesn't have a chance to win a competitive race. This team/car is hamstrung by it's QB/sputtering engine.

[PSUBeirut]

The most important/critical position in all of team sports is a fallacy?  Come on, man.

[Ed Vette]

It is obvious and I think most would agree that you need a franchise QB to win consistently, however is the franchise QB enough by himself to sustain consistent winning records? Let us analyze a few good to elite QB's this year and see what the numbers show:

A) Joe Burrow (elite) projected numbers

68% 4542 yards 41 TD 7 Int 108 RTG

4 wins 6 losses, a losing record

B) Baker Mayfield (good) projected numbers

71% 4513 yards 43 TD 17 Int 105 RTG

4 wins 5 losses, a losing record

C) Geno Smith projected numbers

68% 4836 yards 21 TD 19 Int 88 RTG

4 wins 5 losses, a losing record

D) Trevor Lawrence projected numbers

61% 3785 yards 21 TD 11 Int 87 RTG

2 wins 7 losses, a losing record

E) Dak Prescott (good) projected numbers

64% 4203 yards 23 TD 17 Int 86 RTG

3 wins 5 losses, a losing record

As you can see in all five cases, all five QBs are considered good to elite, and yet with regard to all five QBs they have losing records, but why?

Because each of them are on teams that field terrible defenses, here are the numbers:

A) Cowboys 28.1 ppg ranked 31st
B) Jaguars 28.0 ppg ranked 30th
C) Buccaneers 27.0 ppg ranked 28th
D) Bengals 26.2 ppg ranked 26th
E) Seahawks 24.3 ppg ranked 23rd

As you can see having a franchise QB is great, but just having him alone isn't enough. The data is showing you need a team made up of the other 52 players doing their job to win consistently.

Offense, Defense, and Special Teams all need to be performing at a high level to win consistently in the NFL.

Curious your thoughts if you agree or disagree with me, as there is no right or wrong answer here.

Ok, a QB can't win on his own. So, what's the point of the post?

[katkavage]

It's no fallacy to know for certain you can't seriously contend without one.

[uconnjack8]

If the Giants were scoring as many points as any of those teams they would probably have a winning record right now given their defense is only giving up 22.4 ppg.  So the Giants have a better defense than all 5 teams you listed. The problem is they have the worst offense in the NFL by PPG:

Bengals - 27 PPG
Bucs    - 28.8 PPG
Seahawks - 23.3 PPG
Jags  -  21.7 PPG
Dallas -  21.4 PPG
Giants -  15.4 PPG - Last in the NFL

You are correct, it takes 53 guys.  And the 15th ranked defense doesn't get you much when you have the 32dn ranked offense.  Its not all on Jones, but there is certainly plenty of culpability on his part. 

Did you by any chance watch the Bengals - Ravens last night?  Burrow's pocket presence is other worldly on most plays.  He has a poor pass blocking line.  If you missed it, here is all his completions to Chase who had a career night.  There are a variety of different throws, some from a nice pocket some while moving around.  Some deep, some quick short ones thrown with anticipation. 

https://www.bengals.com/video/ja-marr-chase-highlights-264-yard-3-td-bengals-ravens-week-10-2024

[Ed Vette]

If the Giants were scoring as many points as any of those teams they would probably have a winning record right now given their defense is only giving up 22.4 ppg.  So the Giants have a better defense than all 5 teams you listed. The problem is they have the worst offense in the NFL by PPG:

Bengals - 27 PPG
Bucs    - 28.8 PPG
Seahawks - 23.3 PPG
Jags  -  21.7 PPG
Dallas -  21.4 PPG
Giants -  15.4 PPG - Last in the NFL

You are correct, it takes 53 guys.  And the 15th ranked defense doesn't get you much when you have the 32dn ranked offense.  Its not all on Jones, but there is certainly plenty of culpability on his part. 

Did you by any chance watch the Bengals - Ravens last night?  Burrow's pocket presence is other worldly on most plays.  He has a poor pass blocking line.  If you missed it, here is all his completions to Chase who had a career night.  There are a variety of different throws, some from a nice pocket some while moving around.  Some deep, some quick short ones thrown with anticipation. 

https://www.bengals.com/video/ja-marr-chase-highlights-264-yard-3-td-bengals-ravens-week-10-2024

Without Tee Higgins. Did you notice how he took the high routes when the Under or check down was open? And he lost the game because Jackson is winning close games he lost last year. But you see, the Giants only score 15 points a game because Nabors, WDR and Slayton let the QB down. I guess that's the message here.

[babywhales]

It is obvious and I think most would agree that you need a franchise QB to win consistently, however is the franchise QB enough by himself to sustain consistent winning records? Let us analyze a few good to elite QB's this year and see what the numbers show:

A) Joe Burrow (elite) projected numbers

68% 4542 yards 41 TD 7 Int 108 RTG

4 wins 6 losses, a losing record

B) Baker Mayfield (good) projected numbers

71% 4513 yards 43 TD 17 Int 105 RTG

4 wins 5 losses, a losing record

C) Geno Smith projected numbers

68% 4836 yards 21 TD 19 Int 88 RTG

4 wins 5 losses, a losing record

D) Trevor Lawrence projected numbers

61% 3785 yards 21 TD 11 Int 87 RTG

2 wins 7 losses, a losing record

E) Dak Prescott (good) projected numbers

64% 4203 yards 23 TD 17 Int 86 RTG

3 wins 5 losses, a losing record

As you can see in all five cases, all five QBs are considered good to elite, and yet with regard to all five QBs they have losing records, but why?

Because each of them are on teams that field terrible defenses, here are the numbers:

A) Cowboys 28.1 ppg ranked 31st
B) Jaguars 28.0 ppg ranked 30th
C) Buccaneers 27.0 ppg ranked 28th
D) Bengals 26.2 ppg ranked 26th
E) Seahawks 24.3 ppg ranked 23rd

As you can see having a franchise QB is great, but just having him alone isn't enough. The data is showing you need a team made up of the other 52 players doing their job to win consistently.

Offense, Defense, and Special Teams all need to be performing at a high level to win consistently in the NFL.

Curious your thoughts if you agree or disagree with me, as there is no right or wrong answer here.

Lack of a defense is not a free pass for poor QB play and Poor QB play is not a free pass for a bad defense. 

Giants don't have a franchise QB or a defense...

[kingm56]

What is the point of this thread? Why does this strawman argument persist from the same few posters?   Literally no one has made the claim that a franchise QB alone guarantees success. The point has always been that it's incredibly difficult to achieve significant success without a plus QB.

Concerning the list of QBs, only Barrow (maybe Dex) is/are considered AP caliber QBs, and the Bengals have been playing good football the last 5 weeks; they're not out of contention yet. Let's take a macro perspective by reviewing each divisions top 2 teams over 500:

Chiefs        8 - 0; Mahomes (2x MVP, 2x AP, 6x Pro Bowl)
Chargers    5 - 3; Herbert (1x Pro Bowl, AP OROY)

Steelers    6 - 2; Wilson (9x Pro Bowl, 1x AP) * Note - Wilson has only played 2 games
Ravens        7 - 3; Jackson (2x MVP, 3x Pro Bowl, 2x AP)

Texans        6 - 3; Stroud (AP OROY, 1x Pro Bowl)

Commanders    7 - 2; Daniels (rookie)
Eagles        6 - 2; Hurts (2x Pro Bowl, 1x AP)

Cardinals    5 - 4; Murray (AP OROY, 2x Pro Bowl)
Rams        4 - 4; Stafford  (2x Pro Bowl)

Lions        7 - 1; Goff (3x Pro Bowl)
Vikings        6 - 2; Darnold (None)

Falcons            6 - 3; Cousins (4x Pro Bowl)

With few exceptions (e.g. Minn and Wash), the NFL's best teams are led by Pro-Bowl caliber QBs; the top teams are led by AP and/or MVP caliber QBs.  So, while a franchise QB doesn't guarantee success, the data suggest it's extremely difficult to consistently win without one., which is the point several have made during DJ's tenure.

[MrGap92]

A franchise QB ala Mahomes, Burrow, etc can not win on his own. By win I am talking championships, contentions, frequent playoff runs, though he always gives you a chance.

At the same time, you also do not win or do those things if you have a bad one like we do, or other teams in a similar boat.

There is no fallacy here

[MrGap92]

With that said, please can we stop with the strawman arguments, cherry picking and not so cleverly veiled accusations?

[Painter]

I don't think the title, The Fallacy of the Franchise Quarterback was meant to convey what it does which most would say is inaccurate or at least confusing. Although the term, Franchise Quarterback is applied subjectively and as such subject to interpretation, it's almost always used to suggest an above level of success over the length of something more than a first contract. That is, of course, excluding the rash enthusiasm which sometimes greets a particular Draft pick.

In any case, do we all feel that it is fair and reasonable to apply the Franchise label to any and/or all of the five QBs listed? And having suggested as much, to then immediately begin qualifying on the basis of a lack of some critical element of team support and assistance as if it is part of "Franchise" definition itself? If anywhere at all, that's where the term, Fallacy might make at least a little sense.

Cheers!

[files58]

If the Giants were scoring as many points as any of those teams they would probably have a winning record right now given their defense is only giving up 22.4 ppg.  So the Giants have a better defense than all 5 teams you listed. The problem is they have the worst offense in the NFL by PPG:

Bengals - 27 PPG
Bucs    - 28.8 PPG
Seahawks - 23.3 PPG
Jags  -  21.7 PPG
Dallas -  21.4 PPG
Giants -  15.4 PPG - Last in the NFL

You are correct, it takes 53 guys.  And the 15th ranked defense doesn't get you much when you have the 32dn ranked offense.  Its not all on Jones, but there is certainly plenty of culpability on his part. 

Did you by any chance watch the Bengals - Ravens last night?  Burrow's pocket presence is other worldly on most plays.  He has a poor pass blocking line.  If you missed it, here is all his completions to Chase who had a career night.  There are a variety of different throws, some from a nice pocket some while moving around.  Some deep, some quick short ones thrown with anticipation. 

https://www.bengals.com/video/ja-marr-chase-highlights-264-yard-3-td-bengals-ravens-week-10-2024

/quote]

While watching Burrow-Chase last night what stood out for me was Burrow hitting Chase in stride enabling him to RAC. We have another LSU WR, cut from the Chase mold who DOES NOT catch passes from Jones while in stride. Hence Jones leaves his receivers vulnerable, and hurt. There is no "electricity" to our offense because the QB can't find the "socket". A couple of games ago I'm watching and thinking Jones is going to get theses guys killed. 

[Gmo11]

I watched that Bengals/Ravens game last night and saw two absolutely elite QB going head to head.  It took Lamar a little longer to get in a groove but that 4th quarter...my goodness.  Both of those guys are at the very top of the list of QBs in the league.  And one of them was going to lose.  That's the nature of the game.  Somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. 

You put either one of those QBs on this Giants roster and they are leading this division.  There's not a doubt in my mind. Not because I don't think the rest of the roster doesn't matter, but because I think the rest of this roster IS pretty good (with a few more holes to fill admittedly). But the QB is so bad he's dragging everyone down with him. 

[sxdxca38]

Ok, a QB can't win on his own. So, what's the point of the post?

Ok, a QB can't win on his own. So, what's the point of the post?

Hi Ed,

That's the point, QB can't do it on his own, nothing more nothing less.

And having a franchise QB does not in of itself guarantee success.