- As of right now Giants have the 2nd pick in the draft -

[MightyGiants]

I get that. But what might happen next week has nothing to do with "as of right now". The OP was accurate in stating that today, we are at #2 without any qualifiers.

I am not saying your title isn't "technically accurate."

What I am saying is that big picture; I don't think it's realistic to think the team is currently picking 2nd as I think it's highly unlikely the Raiders, Browns, and Titans will all lose next week, which is required to hold that 2nd pick.

To me, it's like what I saw on Twitter where people were saying that "right now," the Giants have the first pick in the draft (which was true from the time the Giants lost in OT until the Jags lost their game. 

[Stringer Bell]

Kid works hard, Tom Brady has been training the kid since middle school. Does he make a lot of commercials, and ads with his dad yes, but now everyone that age does social media etc. Remember when everyone thought Thibs was going to be a problem because he did socials, and was outspoken, or Nabers with his stuff. Both have been model citizens so far besides an over blown concert. If the kid has game we need him.

For the record regarding Qbs-

Cam Ward has issues, kid holds the ball waaayyyy to long for me and I dont think he processes the field fast enough. Compared to last years Qbs he would be somewhere in that JJ Mccarthy/Penix range.

Sheddur Sanders currently by far the best Qb prospect but not the best Qb in college.

Carson Beck is a flop, he broke like Daniel Jones and there is no fixing him. Guy went from 1st overall pick to late 3rd/4th range.

Jaxson Dart is the best Qb in college right now, and all the stats back that up. The best college Qb might not be the best pro prospect. I think he has the best back shoulder throw in college, isn't scared to go deep, intermediate, or just take off. The big hang up for most is him playing in a lane kiffin offense.

Quinn Ewers is an Enigma, some times he looks amazing, and other times he doesn't.

Jalen Milroe has been elite at times, and just good at other times. He's just an elite athlete that happens to play Qb kinda like Lamar.

Completely fine with selling the number 1 or 2 pick for a kings ransom, and then sign a vet, and go all in for next year.

 I'd also be on bored with trading our top pick for a ransom and drafting one of the qbs that falls to the 2nd like Milroe or maybe Dart late 2nd early 3rd while you save assets. Then in a year if they hit like Lamar, Hurts etc or if it doesn't hit you still roll into next offseason with the opportunity to get your guy, with all the assets.

Good write-up! I agree with a lot of it.

The biggest issue with Sanders is his HEAVY focus on his brand. It's funny you mention Thibs. I was never worried with Thibs being an off-the-field problem because of his focus on his brand. My concern was always on whether it would distract him on the field. And while we don't know with certainty what's caused it, his play has certainly been a disappointment.

Agree 100% on Ward holding the ball too long. That will not work at all in the NFL, and processing / delivering much faster is not something you just change overnight, especially when the stakes are higher against better competition.

Also agree that Beck is a mess. Would maybe take a flyer on him in the middle rounds but he's not a day 2 pick any more.

I'm just not sold on Dart. Can't quite put my finger on what it is - maybe it is the Kiffen effect - but I just don't like his chances to succeed in the NFL. He gives me the same feeling I had with Sam Bradford.

Agree completely with Ewers. He's always intrigued me the most, but don't like how he disappears, at times.

I'm down on Milroe big time. Maybe it's unfair, but the whole Anthony Richardson disaster leaves me questioning that prototype.

If we could get a monster haul from the Jets or Saints and move down to 8 or 9, I'd be totally fine with that. Land a CB, OG, DT, and draft someone like Kurtis Rourke in the 4th. Then have an extra 1st and 2nd the following year as ammo to get your QB in a better class.

[Philosophers]

Good write-up! I agree with a lot of it.

The biggest issue with Sanders is his HEAVY focus on his brand. It's funny you mention Thibs. I was never worried with Thibs being an off-the-field problem because of his focus on his brand. My concern was always on whether it would distract him on the field. And while we don't know with certainty what's caused it, his play has certainly been a disappointment.

Agree 100% on Ward holding the ball too long. That will not work at all in the NFL, and processing / delivering much faster is not something you just change overnight, especially when the stakes are higher against better competition.

Also agree that Beck is a mess. Would maybe take a flyer on him in the middle rounds but he's not a day 2 pick any more.

I'm just not sold on Dart. Can't quite put my finger on what it is - maybe it is the Kiffen effect - but I just don't like his chances to succeed in the NFL. He gives me the same feeling I had with Sam Bradford.

Agree completely with Ewers. He's always intrigued me the most, but don't like how he disappears, at times.

I'm down on Milroe big time. Maybe it's unfair, but the whole Anthony Richardson disaster leaves me questioning that prototype.

If we could get a monster haul from the Jets or Saints and move down to 8 or 9, I'd be totally fine with that. Land a CB, OG, DT, and draft someone like Kurtis Rourke in the 4th. Then have an extra 1st and 2nd the following year as ammo to get your QB in a better class.

Milroe is way more like Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray as passer/runner, not Anthony Richardson who has no history of passing.

[Stringer Bell]

Milroe is way more like Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray as passer/runner, not Anthony Richardson who has no history of passing.

I guess that partially speaks to my concern. I don't consider Hurts much of a passer, either. He's highly overrated in that regard.

Kyler is a MUCH better passer than Hurts, Milroe, etc.

[Painter]

While most often it's the earlier the better, it really is too soon to start guessing where between say, Nos 1 and 5 overall it will be. And then of even more importance will be the who of it all, the debate which no doubt will follow, and the odds that it (he) will prove in time (but rather quickly) to satisfy our definition of success.

Moreover, whatever may be our definition, it will bring with it a "no sure thing" level of uncertainty based on any large number of draft results for success rates for quarterbacks drafted in the first round:

Here's a summary of the success rates for quarterbacks drafted in the first round over quite some period of time:

Franchise QBs: Around 20% of first-round QBs become potential franchise quarterbacks.

Average Starters: About 30% are considered average starters but not franchise material.

Disappointments: Over 50% are considered disappointments, either failing to become quality starters or being complete busts.

It's worth noting that the odds improve slightly for quarterbacks drafted in the top five picks, with a higher percentage becoming Pro Bowlers


2024
Caleb Williams- All too soon
Jayden Daniels
Drake Maye
Michael Penix
J.J McCarthy
Bo Nix

2023
C.J.Stroud - Hit
Bryce Young - ?
Anthony Richardson - Miss

2022
Kenny Pickett- Miss

2021
Trevor Lawrence – Hit

Zach Wilson – Miss

Justin Fields – Miss (probably)

Trey Lance – Miss

Mac Jones - Miss

2020
Joe Burrow – Hit

Tua Tagovailoa – ?

Justin Herbert – Hit

Jordan Love – ?

*Brock Purdy - Hit

2019
Kyler Murray – ?

Daniel Jones – Miss

Dwayne Haskins - Miss

2018
Baker Mayfield – ?

Sam Darnold – ?

Josh Allen – Hit

Josh Rosen – Miss

Lamar Jackson – Hit

2017
Mitchell Trubisky – Miss

Patrick Mahomes – Hit

Deshaun Watson - Miss

2016
Jared Goff – Hit

Carson Wentz – Miss

Paxton Lynch – Miss

2015
Jameis Winston – Miss

Marcus Mariota - Miss

2014
Blake Bortles – Miss

Johnny Manziel – Miss

Teddy Bridgewater - Miss

2013
EJ Manuel – Miss

2012
Andrew Luck – Hit

RGIII – Miss

Ryan Tannehill – Miss

Brandon Weeden – Miss

2011
Cam Newton – Miss

Jake Locker – Miss

Blain Gabbert – Miss

Christian Ponder – Miss

2nd Round Derek Carr, Jimmy Garappolo, Drew Lock, Jalen Hurts, Will Levis
4th Round Dak Prescott

Cheers!

[AZGiantFan]

How is that more accurate? The post title is "As of right now ..."

As of right now, the Giants are accurately in the #2 spot.

Because 'as of right now' is meaningless when there is a disparity in games played.

It reminds me of a joke about actuaries (I was one, so I'm allowed to tell actuary jokes).  Two guys were in a boat fishing in a large lake and they lost their bearings.  A hot air balloon appeared and they flagged it down.  They called to the lone balloonist and asked, "Where are we?".  The ballonist repied, "You're in a boat in the middle of a lake".  One of the fishermen called back up, "You must be an actuary."  "Why yes, how did you know?", replied the balloonist.  "Because the answer you gave us was 100% accurate and completely useless.

[AZGiantFan]

I was actually looking at Shedeur Sanders, and I think he will be a very good QB, can create something out of nothing and hits a lot of big plays, which this team is sorely needing.

I'd be on board with taking him with the Giants #1 pick.

My issue with Sanders is that Deion doesn't want him going to a cold weather team, and I'd hate to see a repeat of 2004, this time with the Giants cast in the San Diego role.  Particularly when there is no Plillip Rivers in this draft as consolation prize.

[AZGiantFan]

Jaxson Dart is the best Qb in college right now, and all the stats back that up. The best college Qb might not be the best pro prospect. I think he has the best back shoulder throw in college, isn't scared to go deep, intermediate, or just take off. The big hang up for most is him playing in a lane kiffin offense.

Could you expand on that a bit?  I don't follow college ball so I don't know what that means.

[DaveBrown74]

My issue with Sanders is that Deion doesn't want him going to a cold weather team, and I'd hate to see a repeat of 2004, this time with the Giants cast in the San Diego role.  Particularly when there is no Plillip Rivers in this draft as consolation prize.

We'll see what happens, but I have a feeling that statement by Deion won't be set in stone. Most of the bad teams this year that might draft a QB get some cold weather. Nashville is cold in the winter too. Jacksonville won't be moving on from Lawrence a year after giving him the biggest contract in NFL history. So Deion may end up looking at the landscape and realizing his ambitions around weather may not be very realistic. We'll see.

[Painter]

Before you start sticking your fingers in the air or wherever, have a look at recent Draft history (above) even if it's a bit subjective. The current hash certaintly doesn't encourage being rash.

Cheers!

[kingm56]

Before you start sticking your fingers in the air or wherever, have a look at recent Draft history (above) even if it's a bit subjective. The current hash certaintly doesn't encourage being rash.

Cheers!

Thank you for compiling the list, Larry. I found it interesting...   

[AZGiantFan]

We'll see what happens, but I have a feeling that statement by Deion won't be set in stone. Most of the bad teams this year that might draft a QB get some cold weather. Nashville is cold in the winter too. Jacksonville won't be moving on from Lawrence a year after giving him the biggest contract in NFL history. So Deion may end up looking at the landscape and realizing his ambitions around weather may not be very realistic. We'll see.

Maybe.  And maybe he and Shadeur will decide that NY is the best place to build his brand.  I never cared for Deion's style, but he was indisputably a great player and winner and showman.  If we do take Shadeur I'm pretty sure it will be more like Ken Griffey and Ken Griffey, Jr. than Lebron and Bronny.

[Philosophers]

I guess that partially speaks to my concern. I don't consider Hurts much of a passer, either. He's highly overrated in that regard.

Kyler is a MUCH better passer than Hurts, Milroe, etc.

I think Milroe is pretty darn accurate.  Not sure why folks think otherwise.  He puts it between the numbers.

[Jclayton92]

Could you expand on that a bit?  I don't follow college ball so I don't know what that means.

Lane Kiffin has worked miracles with some of the qbs he's been given. He made Matt Leinart look elite in college. He turned a safety at Alabama into their all time passing leader in Blake Sims. The guy is the best offensive mind in college and it isnt close. Until this year hes had  subpar talent at Ole Miss and still has had a top 5 offense every year. He made a 3 star Qb in Matt Corral look elite and got him drafted, Corral was good but his own demons messed up his chances not because he was in kiffins offense. People think kiffin runs an air raid, pass happy offense, but he doesnt. Its the opposite infact, his teams are run first, and because of that it opens up the constant explosives. Kiffin learned from the master, Lavell Edwards who I put up there with Croyell in innovating passing offenses, he also learned from Norm Chow who was a great OC in his own right. He learned at the feet of Pete Carroll and Saban, his offenses are the definition of pro style offense running gap or zone scheme depending on the opponent. He uses a ton of motion and multiple formations so people think it's a gimmick offense but it isn't. He hired his OC Charlie Weiss Jr when he was like 19 because he's a prodigy but the kid runs an innovative pro style like his father.

The main issue is that Kiffin has never had a truly elite 5 star prospect at Qb. Even at USC, Alabama, Tennessee, FAU, and Ole Miss. He's made guys like John David Baker, Will Compton, Blake Sims, Matt Corral etc look elite in college when they weren't. Insert his first true 5 star prospect in Jaxson Dart, and over the past 3 years he has gotten significantly better statiscally year on year, to the point that he is leading the country in almost every statistical category. Matt Corral not being good caused that natrative about kiffins offense, but it's not true. Kiffin is also excelling in the transfer portal like no other coach which might as well be FA, sooner than later a NFL team will come calling.

[AZGiantFan]

Lane Kiffin has worked miracles with some of the qbs he's been given. He made Matt Leinart look elite in college. He turned a safety at Alabama into their all time passing leader in Blake Sims. The guy is the best offensive mind in college and it isnt close. Until this year hes had  subpar talent at Ole Miss and still has had a top 5 offense every year. He made a 3 star Qb in Matt Corral look elite and got him drafted, Corral was good but his own demons messed up his chances not because he was in kiffins offense. People think kiffin runs an air raid, pass happy offense, but he doesnt. Its the opposite infact, his teams are run first, and because of that it opens up the constant explosives. Kiffin learned from the master, Lavell Edwards who I put up there with Croyell in innovating passing offenses, he also learned from Norm Chow who was a great OC in his own right. He learned at the feet of Pete Carroll and Saban, his offenses are the definition of pro style offense running gap or zone scheme depending on the opponent. He uses a ton of motion and multiple formations so people think it's a gimmick offense but it isn't. He hired his OC Charlie Weiss Jr when he was like 19 because he's a prodigy but the kid runs an innovative pro style like his father.

The main issue is that Kiffin has never had a truly elite 5 star prospect at Qb. Even at USC, Alabama, Tennessee, FAU, and Ole Miss. He's made guys like John David Baker, Will Compton, Blake Sims, Matt Corral etc look elite in college when they weren't. Insert his first true 5 star prospect in Jaxson Dart, and over the past 3 years he has gotten significantly better statiscally year on year, to the point that he is leading the country in almost every statistical category. Matt Corral not being good caused that natrative about kiffins offense, but it's not true. Kiffin is also excelling in the transfer portal like no other coach which might as well be FA, sooner than later a NFL team will come calling.

Thank you.  Very educational.