I can't Lie

[uconnjack8]

It would undoubtedly have been better to trade Saquon and receive compensation.

I still stand by the influence of Mara figuring into the decisions. Until his voice is silenced, the GM will not be as successful

 as possible.

After his recent comments about the trade deadline and not wanting to give up on the season, it couldn't be more apparent.  That especially goes for his favorites like Barkley.

[PSUBeirut]

So you thought he played like a 40 million dollar running back last year? He was overpaid, his metrics were trash last year no matter how you look at it. I didn't want to resign him because we had holes everywhere that an elder running back wasn't going to solve on a bad team. That is on top of the history at the position for Rbs on 2nd deals and how devalued the position is currently.

Barkley has 1100 yards on 200 attempt with 8tds

Tyrone Tracy has 550 yards on 100 attempts with 3tds

One is making 13 million, one is making 1 million with virtually the same production per attempt.

So why are we upset Barkley left? We replaced the production for a 1/13th of the cost, is that not what a good GM should be doing.

Who is we?  I was 100% for him leaving this year so he could do exactly what he's doing, because he deserves a shot at success.  That wasn't happening for the Giants and certainly wouldn't have this year either.  And on a team as dysfunctional as the Giants, there's absolutely no reason to pay a top-5 RB so that made sense as well.  However, I'm still on record and will stand by it- that they absolutely should have signed him to a long-term deal and tagged DJ when that decision came about. 

Now, back to the actual question- I am genuinely curious to see where you're pulling your stats/metrics from so we can compare.  Can you please provide?  Because last year you seemed certain he was washed up and his metrics proved that, whereas I found those metrics to be spurious and likely a result of him playing with a highly dysfunctional offense with no other weapons around him- plus I thought this year, with yet more time removed from serious injury, that he may have a bit more spring in his step than we'd seen here.  So far, at least, it seems to be the case so I'd genuinely like to look at where you pulled your metrics from so we could take a look.

[Jclayton92]

Who is we?  I was 100% for him leaving this year so he could do exactly what he's doing, because he deserves a shot at success.  That wasn't happening for the Giants and certainly wouldn't have this year either.  And on a team as dysfunctional as the Giants, there's absolutely no reason to pay a top-5 RB so that made sense as well.  However, I'm still on record and will stand by it- that they absolutely should have signed him to a long-term deal and tagged DJ when that decision came about. 

Now, back to the actual question- I am genuinely curious to see where you're pulling your stats/metrics from so we can compare.  Can you please provide?  Because last year you seemed certain he was washed up and his metrics proved that, whereas I found those metrics to be spurious and likely a result of him playing with a highly dysfunctional offense with no other weapons around him- plus I thought this year, with yet more time removed from serious injury, that he may have a bit more spring in his step than we'd seen here.  So far, at least, it seems to be the case so I'd genuinely like to look at where you pulled your metrics from so we could take a look.

Show me the post and I can easily tell you where I got them from. More than likely I got the Rb stats from DVOA. You're more than welcome to go and look up his advanced metrics and DVOA but even in 2022 when people thought he played well his metrics were bad. His value above replacement and all those other metrics were not good. Football Outsiders shut down and FTN scooped up their DVOA algorithms and do it now behind a paywall. I was far and away not the only person to post his advanced stats, if I remember correctly rich had several posts with how horrible his advanced metrics were in 2022 and last year.

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1857827295622267246

[uconnjack8]

https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1857827295622267246

Could say the same about Dexter Lawrence or Andrew Thomas. 

[PSUBeirut]

Ok, this is a topic I'd actually love to dive into more with smart people such as yourselves, but I'd like to take a moment to "clear the deck" of givens/things I think we can all agree on- to put them out of the way and not let them distract any more:

-It was the right move by both the Giants and Saquon for him to leave the team this year
-It's awesome we may have finally hit on a later round RB after many years of failing to do this.  We all hope Tracy can continue to carry the rock well for years to come.
-If Saquon were on the Giants this year, it would make close to zero impact on the number of wins and losses.

Hopefully this can help.  Here's what I'd like to get more into, to see what you guys think:  In the particular case of Saquon (and we may be able to throw Derrick Henry into this convo as well, but I'd like to start with Barkley):  Do advanced metrics really predict future success for running backs?  Or, as I may suspect, are they just another form of metric that really rely on the RB's surrounding support system?

I understand (I think!) what these metrics like EPA, DVOA, and yards above expected are trying to do- essentially, they try to quantify a running back's ability to be productive regardless of the talent around them.  They're trying to quantify what the individual player brings to the table so they can look further into actual RB effectiveness.  ie, in a vaccuum, if all RBs had the same exact support system, which would be most/least effective. 

In the case of Saquon, they don't seem to have done that.  He's had, apparently, terrible advanced metrics these past two years.  And now (I assumed...because I haven't been given any links to look at), those metrics all of a sudden look better.  I do know he's producing at a high level, has multiple cases of the fastest runs in the NFL this year, and my own eyes tell me he's back to an elite level of athleticism and play. 

Most reasonable people suspected this would happen- that Saquon was being dragged down by the offensive conditions surrounding him and that in Philly those conditions would be significantly better, thus leading to a resurgence in play.  So my question remains:  If Saquon's "advanced metrics" were so terrible, why were they not effective in predicting his change of scenery being this positive?  Is it a case of the metrics aren't as good at singling out RB performance as they have been intended to be?  My gut is that there are special, elite athletes that are just "outliers", that these types of metrics would never be good at prediction.  I think Derrick Henry also falls into this category.  Adrian Peterson another- I'm sure there weren't many metrics or conventional wisdom that could have predicted some of the success he had later in his career.

I do believe/know Saquon is in this category of elite athlete.  I also know he's only 27.  So it's hard for me to imagine (outside of injury) that he would somehow "fall off a cliff".  It wasn't true this year (as predicted) and so I have trouble assuming it would happen next year, when he'll be just 28 years old. 

So, what do you guys think?  Do advanced metrics for running backs work for future predictions of productivity in the aggregate, but perhaps not in the unique case of an elite athlete like Saquon?  Or are they not predictive in general of future success when any RB changes team/scenery?  I'd be interested to hear your thoughts (and also....any links to some of these advanced metrics that have shown Barkley as terrible these past two years so we can compare them to this year).