NGT - NCAA Football Week 13 Thread

[DaveBrown74]

Really interesting week in college football. There are no flashing light, marquee type games this week, however there are a bunch of games I'm personally interested in. I'll get to them in a second, but it's worth noting that part of the reason (IMO at least) there are a lot of games that are interesting this late in the regular season is because of the 12 team playoff format.

Many who have criticized the expansion have made the argument that going from four teams to twelve teams undermines the importance of the regular season somewhat. I understand what people are saying when they make that claim, but I actually think it's a really misguided claim. Sure, as a result of what they have done, they have made the stakes a little lower for some of these games between the truly top 5 teams, but on the flip side of that they've created a situation where you have weeks like this week where you have a ton of games that matter a great deal. If this were a four team playoff most of these games I am going to mention below would have no real relevance. Now they do. So I think it's wrong to say the regular season has been adversely impacted by the playoff expansion. Just my two cents obviously but I feel strongly about that.

Ok, games I am going to be keeping an eye on:


Ole Miss -13 at Florida: Ole Miss is very good but they have two losses. They likely can't afford a third if they want to be in the playoffs. Florida is only 5-5 but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country to this point and aren't a complete pushover.

Indiana +10.5 at OSU: Really interesting game as Indiana is undefeated. They deserve a ton of credit for that, as you can only beat the teams put in front of you. They haven't really beaten anyone of note though, so I have a tough time seeing them staying very competitive in the Shoe today. OSU will be looking to make a statement here. If I were betting I'd take the Bucks laying the points.

SMU -11 at UVA: SMU has had a great season and has playoff hopes. I haven't watched UVA this year but their resume isn't that impressive. Still, this is a road game for a team that isn't used to having dominant seasons. SMU needs this, but could they find this game more challenging than it would appear?

PSU -11 at Minnesota: No doubt the Nittany Lions should win this game, but Minny is not a complete pushover. There's a chance this one could be close. Still, Allar seems to be getting some momentum, so I think the 11 point line is probably fair and PSU should ultimately win by somewhere between 7 and 15 points.

BYU +3 at Arizona State: Not a game you'd normally think "matters", but after losing only their first game last week BYU has dropped down to 14th. They are still alive for the playoffs, but they'll need to beat the 8-2 Sun Devils on the road today, and that's not going to be any easy task. I think this should be a good game, and I'd probably lean towards ASU winning and covering. BYU may be overrated despite being 9-1.

Colorado -3 at Kansas: Colorado is 16th ranked and 8-2, so the playoffs aren't completely out of the question (albeit that looks pretty improbable). Still, this is a chance to get eyes on Shedeur and Travis Hunter in a road game against a decent opponent that has won their last two and three of their last four.

Texas A+M -2 at Auburn: Great SEC night game. A+M is 15th ranked with two losses, so they still have a shot. Auburn is a tough place to win though. This one should be really entertaining.

Alabama -14 at Oklahoma: Oklahoma kind of stinks this year, but this Bama team has been vulnerable at times, including losing to Vandy. Could this be a surprisingly close game?

[Ed Vette]

Well, Jaxson Dart proved he ain't the guy. It's not all his fault they lost, because passes were dropped, but he crumbled under the pressure of the moment. He's a second-third round pick right now. Very disappointed.

Kansas is kicking the crap out of Colorado. I don't know if Sanders can overcome this. Of course he does have Travis Hunter.

[DaveBrown74]

Well, Jaxson Dart proved he ain't the guy. It's not all his fault they lost, because passes were dropped, but he crumbled under the pressure of the moment. He's a second-third round pick right now. Very disappointed.

Kansas is kicking the crap out of Colorado. I don't know if Sanders can overcome this. Of course he does have Travis Hunter.

Not Ole Miss' year. Definitely a surprising upset although (as mentioned) the Gators aren't some pushover. They've played the whose who of college ball this year and are 6-5.

I'd love to see SMU get into the playoffs. That will probably mean having to beat Miami in the ACC championship game though. Not easy.

[Ed Vette]

Not Ole Miss' year. Definitely a surprising upset although (as mentioned) the Gators aren't some pushover. They've played the whose who of college ball this year and are 6-5.

I'd love to see SMU get into the playoffs. That will probably mean having to beat Miami in the ACC championship game though. Not easy.

Did you see much of the Miami-Wake game? Cam's stats look good but I only saw part of the first half. Wake looked like they might put up a fight.

[Ed Vette]

Carson Beck is bottom feeding. Anyone watch the full game?

[DaveBrown74]

Outrageous:

https://x.com/AlexWilsonESM/status/1860441767096512958

[Ed Vette]

Outrageous:

https://x.com/AlexWilsonESM/status/1860441767096512958

That's so egregious that he should be suspended.

[DaveBrown74]

That's so egregious that he should be suspended.

Agreed. Maybe even suspended from the school and not just the team. That's bounty-gate type stuff.

Apparently Shedeur is ok .. which is hard to believe.

[Philosophers]

Florida has been pretty bad this year.  Bad loss for Miss.

Colorado joked this KU game.  They are out of the picture no matter what Deion says.

Cal beating Stanford seems to happen once every 50 years.

[uconnjack8]

Not a great day for Millie so far.

[DaveBrown74]

Disastrous game for Milroe. His stock just took a bath.

Three losses for Bama. Including two really embarrassing ones. Might not be playoff material in a 12 team format, which is appalling for them. Some real questions being raised about DeBoer.

[Philosophers]

Disastrous game for Milroe. His stock just took a bath.

Three losses for Bama. Including two really embarrassing ones. Might not be playoff material in a 12 team format, which is appalling for them. Some real questions being raised about DeBoer.

We at Michigan would be killing to have

Disastrous game for Milroe. His stock just took a bath.

Three losses for Bama. Including two really embarrassing ones. Might not be playoff material in a 12 team format, which is appalling for them. Some real questions being raised about DeBoer.

The SEC is way overhyped this season. 

[DaveBrown74]

We at Michigan would be killing to have
The SEC is way overhyped this season. 

There are no truly elite teams anywhere in the country this year IMO. Lots of parity in the top 10. I agree about there being parity and dilution in the SEC but PSU very nearly lost to a middling Gophers team and 5th ranked Indiana got utterly exposed and destroyed yesterday. The same basic argument can be made about the Big 10.

It's actually why I'm pumped for the playoffs this year and the fact that there are 12 teams. I wouldn't rule out anyone beating anyone this year.

[Philosophers]

There are no truly elite teams anywhere in the country this year IMO. Lots of parity in the top 10. I agree about there being parity and dilution in the SEC but PSU very nearly lost to a middling Gophers team and 5th ranked Indiana got utterly exposed and destroyed yesterday. The same basic argument can be made about the Big 10.

It's actually why I'm pumped for the playoffs this year and the fact that there are 12 teams. I wouldn't rule out anyone beating anyone this year.

First time we can probably say someone other than a top 4 can win.

[DaveBrown74]

First time we can probably say someone other than a top 4 can win.

Absolutely agree. OSU, Texas, Oregon, and UGA are perhaps the four best teams, but I don't know that for sure and even if they are it's not like any of them are unbeatable. I get that Oregon is undefeated, and they do have the signature win against OSU which is impressive, but on a neutral field I don't think they're head and shoulders above these other teams.

Great day of college ball yesterday. Tons of meaningful games, lots of drama. I am loving the 12 team system. People who say it has undermined the sanctity of the regular season are mistaken in my opinion. It is actually enhancing the regular season by making a lot more games meaningful late in the season than would be the case were there only four teams in the CFP.