NGT Top rookie QBs

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/mlombardiNFL/status/1861102697254134127

[madbadger]

Funny how many here who say that this is a bad quarterback draft also hated Nix as a prospect. It tells you two things. One, none of us, myself included, really know how to evaluate quarterbacks and two, how important fit is to a rookies success.

[kingm56]

Funny how many here who say that this is a bad quarterback draft also hated Nix as a prospect. It tells you two things. One, none of us, myself included, really know how to evaluate quarterbacks and two, how important fit is to a rookies success.

There are some who are more accurate than most:

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?topic=69755.msg951057#msg951057

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?topic=70205.msg957741#msg957741

@Ed Vette nailed the 2023 QB draft class...

[uconnjack8]

I think the problem with evaluating QBs from afar is that the mental part of the game is so important for their success.  Bill Polian would say even the scouts only have about 80% of the information when it comes to QBs. 

We can all make our assessments off what we see on the field and there is validity to that, but there is a lot of other factors that we cannot see, touch or hear. 

Of course there are some of us who watch more college football and are generally more knowledgeable so some of their opinions are going to be more educated.  That of course doesn't mean they will always get it right.

Edit:  with that last paragraph I am NOT talking about myself.

[MightyGiants]

There are some who are more accurate than most:

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?topic=69755.msg951057#msg951057

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?topic=70205.msg957741#msg957741

@Ed Vette nailed the 2023 QB draft class...

I would classify my success as the whole blind squirrel thing
 

    

I think the Broncos and Bo could be a good fit and successful

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?msg=951480

[madbadger]

There are some who are more accurate than most:

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?topic=69755.msg951057#msg951057

https://giantsfans.net/message_board/index.php?topic=70205.msg957741#msg957741

@Ed Vette nailed the 2023 QB draft class...

Obviously my post was directed at you. It was aimed at the posters who make their mind up on a guy and then state categorically that player sucks. For everyone who liked Nix, I was one of them for the record, there were five that claimed he was a system quarterback doomed to fail. Those same people are stating categorically that no quarterback in this draft worth the first pick.

[MightyGiants]

Obviously my post was directed at you. It was aimed at the posters who make their mind up on a guy and then state categorically that player sucks. For everyone who liked Nix, I was one of them for the record, there were five that claimed he was a system quarterback doomed to fail. Those same people are stating categorically that no quarterback in this draft worth the first pick.

As HOF GM Bill Polian says, even the best outside draft pundit has maybe 30% of the information on a prospect (I suspect even lower when it comes to the QB position).  So, really, we are all making educated guesses and trying to pass ourselves off as experts.  Hell, even NFL teams with far more information and expertise get it wrong as much as they get it right.  I think part of that has to do with the underappreciated elements of QB support and development.  I think those elements play just as big a role in a QB prospect's success as the actual selection.

There is an old saying that the strength of one's opinion should be proportional to its certainty.   Not surprisingly, among many fans (short of fanatics), that rule doesn't apply. 

[TDToomer]

I watch very little NCAA but I did catch a Bo Nix game during his junior year and came across very impressed. I was a but surprised he didn't enter the less crowded 2023 QB draft since he was turning 23 and already eligible. Should we have take Nix at #6? Who knows if he would be having the same success here.

[MightyGiants]

I watch very little NCAA but I did catch a Bo Nix game during his junior year and came across very impressed. I was a but surprised he didn't enter the less crowded 2023 QB draft since he was turning 23 and already eligible. Should we have take Nix at #6? Who knows if he would be having the same success here.

Donny,

I have been thinking the same thing.  We don't have a Sean Payton, nor as good of offensive cast.

[Stringer Bell]

Funny how many here who say that this is a bad quarterback draft also hated Nix as a prospect. It tells you two things. One, none of us, myself included, really know how to evaluate quarterbacks and two, how important fit is to a rookies success.

To be fair, prior to Nix's last 2 games where he's really helped his stats (580 yards, 6 TDs), his numbers were very pedestrian. If it was DJ putting up 200 YPG and had a 10-6 TD / INT ratio on a 5-5 Giants team, this board would be saying that the team was winning despite DJ and that he doesn't deserve any of the credit.

I was not high on Nix and was not interested in drafting him at #6, and I'm still fine with their decision not to. He's 21st in QBR and 20th in rating, and he's soon to be 25.

I get that the bar is low given what we've had to deal with DJ these past few years, but I'm not sure the 20th best QB in the league warrants an "I told you so" post.

[uconnjack8]

To be fair, prior to Nix's last 2 games where he's really helped his stats (580 yards, 6 TDs), his numbers were very pedestrian. If it was DJ putting up 200 YPG and had a 10-6 TD / INT ratio on a 5-5 Giants team, this board would be saying that the team was winning despite DJ and that he doesn't deserve any of the credit.

I was not high on Nix and was not interested in drafting him at #6, and I'm still fine with their decision not to. He's 21st in QBR and 20th in rating, and he's soon to be 25.

I get that the bar is low given what we've had to deal with DJ these past few years, but I'm not sure the 20th best QB in the league warrants an "I told you so" post.

He is a rookie.  Whats the problem with his age?

[Stringer Bell]

He is a rookie.  Whats the problem with his age?

He's only 2 years younger than DJ, who's been in the league for 6+ years.

[uconnjack8]

He's only 2 years younger than DJ, who's been in the league for 6+ years.

I still don't understand how age matters.  He is on a cheap contract for the next several years whether he is 22 or 25.  He has improved almost every start.  Maybe DJ should have stayed in school longer.  Seems like Nix is more NFL ready than a lot of guys, probably because of a lot of experience.

You mentioned that his last two games are padding his stats. 

In his first two games he threw 0 TDs and 4 INTs.  In his last 9 games he has thrown 16 TDs and 2 INTs.  Thats a pace for 30 in a season. I think people would have been pretty happy if DJ ever put those numbers up. 

I guess the age matters if you are worried that they may only get 10-12 years of a QB rather than 15. 

[Stringer Bell]

I still don't understand how age matters.  He is on a cheap contract for the next several years whether he is 22 or 25.  He has improved almost every start.  Maybe DJ should have stayed in school longer.  Seems like Nix is more NFL ready than a lot of guys, probably because of a lot of experience.

You mentioned that his last two games are padding his stats. 

In his first two games he threw 0 TDs and 4 INTs.  In his last 9 games he has thrown 16 TDs and 2 INTs.  Thats a pace for 30 in a season. I think people would have been pretty happy if DJ ever put those numbers up. 

I guess the age matters if you are worried that they may only get 10-12 years of a QB rather than 15. 

Age matters because it limits upside. A 21-year-old rookie has much more potential for growth. Is it guaranteed? Absolutely not. But there's a higher range of outcomes - and yes, some can be negative.

But a 25-year-old is much more of a "baked" product. Again, is it guaranteed that there's not upside? Nope. But much less likely.

And re: his numbers, even with the last 2 games included, he's still below the median of all starting QBs by several accepted measures. Maybe not DJ levels of ineptitude, but nothing that screams "we really missed the boat on this guy" either.

[uconnjack8]

Age matters because it limits upside. A 21-year-old rookie has much more potential for growth. Is it guaranteed? Absolutely not. But there's a higher range of outcomes - and yes, some can be negative.

But a 25-year-old is much more of a "baked" product. Again, is it guaranteed that there's not upside? Nope. But much less likely.

And re: his numbers, even with the last 2 games included, he's still below the median of all starting QBs by several accepted measures. Maybe not DJ levels of ineptitude, but nothing that screams "we really missed the boat on this guy" either.

He is a rookie.  His numbers are solid for a rookie.  His trend is great for a rookie.  His performance has improved regularly over the season. 

As for the age.  You can tell me a RB (or pick another position) at 25 isn't going to improve much but QB is a different animal because the development is more about between the ears than it is physical.  Are there any QBs in the NFL right now that didn't have physical tools when they got to the NFL that now have them?  Did Mahomes and Allen significantly improve their arm strength since getting to the NFL?  I don't expect Nix to physically grow either, but I do expect him to keep growing in Sean Peyton's offense and understanding what he is seeing at the NFL level in terms of what defenses look like. 

QBs are very seldom drafted in the 1st round without requisite physical traits.  The mental aspect is where they need to grow and translate those physical traits at the NFL level. So I don't see where being 22 vs 25 is any different other than that a 25 year old is a little more mature and maybe mentally and emotionally more ready to take on the role of face of a franchise.