The Value of the #1 Draft pick

[Ed Vette]

As an example, for Dallas to move up from 14 to 1, it would cost them their entire lot of 2025 Draft Picks.

https://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

[coggs]

Using the Rich Hill model, it would cost A LOT more.

1000 to 552.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

[Ed Vette]

Using the Rich Hill model, it would cost A LOT more.

1000 to 552.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

375, so the difference is 675 and they only own 558.

[Ed Vette]

Parsons was the 12th pick of the draft.

[coggs]

375, so the difference is 675 and they only own 558.

I was saying they own 552, so maybe I missed one their later picks.

[Philosophers]

You guys talk in absolutes.  Each year is different amount based in talent quality and quantity so points value will differ and by a lot.

Trading from 10 to 1 when top pick is a generational type QB vs say a Sanders/Ward would require different points.

[Painter]

Is there a point here in regard to the Giants 2025 Draft other than the fact that it always ends up a matter of anticipated versus realized value? In any case, as it seems unlikely at present that the Giants will have to pay to improve their position, perhaps we are thinking instead of how much can be "gained" by trading back. Naw! That's too silly to even so consider discussing. Huh?

What I do find more interesting and relevant is Deion Sanders's recent statement that he expects the Giants to draft Shadeur with their No.1 pick with nothing to suggest that he would in any way oppose or discourage it. I guess he will leave that to folks right here. Hmm?

Cheers!

[Ed Vette]

The point is the value it has if an offer comes in to move up. If it's not too hard to think outside the box, even moving down to the 4th can bring back two seconds and a third at the very least. If the Giants were to sign a Darnold and were not enamored with the top QB's in this draft it would add two-three starters to the roster over two drafts.

It's a very rare situation to have the #1 pick. I don't even know the last time that happened for the Giants. Teams do hit on good players but often, that pick doesn't bring long-term value. Players like Young, Lawrence, Murray, Mayfield, Winston, Bradford, Russell, and Smith did not have first-pick value.

Not finishing my QB evaluation, I'm not sold on Sanders or Ward being worthy of that pick if I look at the gap between them and some others in this Draft.     

[Ed Vette]

If Dallas were looking to unload Parsons, the Giants could do that with a trade of 1's. It was something Lenn brought up in another thread, which sparked this thread.

[Painter]

The point is the value it has if an offer comes in to move up. If it's not too hard to think outside the box, even moving down to the 4th can bring back two seconds and a third at the very least. If the Giants were to sign a Darnold and were not enamored with the top QB's in this draft it would add two-three starters to the roster over two drafts.

It's a very rare situation to have the #1 pick. I don't even know the last time that happened for the Giants. Teams do hit on good players but often, that pick doesn't bring long-term value. Players like Young, Lawrence, Murray, Mayfield, Winston, Bradford, Russell, and Smith did not have first-pick value.

Not finishing my QB evaluation, I'm not sold on Sanders or Ward being worthy of that pick if I look at the gap between them and some others in this Draft.     

Do I detect at hint of Recency Bias? But then, there are far worse Cognitive Dissonances for us to cope. 

Cheers!

[MightyGiants]

While the various points systems is an interesting study and there is some value in learning from it, the reality is when you talk about a singular position like first pick overall, the value will vary based on who is available in the draft.

Sometimes, there is only a singular standout prospect. That pushes up the value of the first overall pick. Sometimes, there are 2 or 3 top players, and the value of picking first diminishes

[Ed Vette]

While the various points systems is an interesting study and there is some value in learning from it, the reality is when you talk about a singular position like first pick overall, the value will vary based on who is available in the draft.

Sometimes, there is only a singular standout prospect. That pushes up the value of the first overall pick. Sometimes, there are 2 or 3 top players, and the value of picking first diminishes

Where do you place the value of the 2025 draft, yo?

[MightyGiants]

Where do you place the value of the 2025 draft, yo?

I would say the value isn't nearly as high as last year's draft.  I think it is more on par with 2019 when the top picks were Kyler Murray and Nick Bosa.

[Ed Vette]

I would say the value isn't nearly as high as last year's draft.  I think it is more on par with 2019 when the top picks were Kyler Murray and Nick Bosa.

There are two QBs at the top. How many teams need a QB?

[T200]

There are two QBs at the top. How many teams need a QB?

Pick    Team        Record    Win%    GB    SOS    Streak
1    Las Vegas    2-12    .143    --    .537    Lost 10
2    NY Giants    2-12    .143    --    .550    Lost 9
3    New England    3-11    .214    1.0    .464    Lost 4
4    Jacksonville    3-11    .214    1.0    .483    Lost 1
5    Carolina    3-11    .214    1.0    .496    Lost 4
6    *Tennessee    3-11    .214    1.0    .510    Lost 3
7    Cleveland    3-11    .214    1.0    .525    Lost 3
8    NY Jets    4-10    .286    2.0    .506    Won 1

I put an asterisk by Tennessee because I don't know how they feel about Levis.