Giants Roster vs Commanders

[MightyGiants]

Gotta go with what's convenient for the narrative(s) for some. Simple as that.

Are you referring to the narrative that coaching doesn't matter, which requires people to ignore actual facts?

[Philosophers]

Joe,

I always enjoy engaging with you, brother. Please don't take my response as a complete dismissal of your well-articulated points. However...

It didn't take Staley two years; in 2021, the Chargers went 9–8 and just missed the playoffs, showing a clear, linear progression driven by Herbert's growth. Moreover, your point about replacing key players supports my central thesis: a team can swap personnel—players or coaches—and remain successful as long as it has a top-tier quarterback. You see this with Kansas City, Buffalo, and other franchises led by elite QBs.

The Chargers' dip in 2023 was directly tied to Herbert's multiple injuries, which he tried to play through. When healthy, the team stayed consistently competitive, largely independent of who was head coach—a point that's hard to refute. If anything, this demonstrates the opposite of the narrative pushed: even a "terrible" coach can achieve results comparable to a renowned one when backed by a bona fide quarterback, raising the question of just how crucial coaching is in today's NFL. That's why I can't help but chuckle when people cite the Chargers as an example of coaching being paramount.

Nevertheless, your point about a coach's ability to identify and replace talent is critical, and something I completely agree with. In fact, along with establishing the right environment, it may be the most important aspect of coaching—far more than player development or scheming. Regarding development, players today are exposed to professional-level coaching early on through social media, player/coaching camps (think the Manning School), travel teams, and other apertures. The college game has evolved to closely mirror the pros, including coaching staffs with professional experience. By the time they reach the NFL, there isn't much they haven't already learned—this isn't the '80s or '90s, when the paradigm was very different.

To be clear, I'm not arguing that Staley is a better coach than Harbaugh, nor am I dismissing the positive impact Harbaugh can have. However, it remains puzzling that some fans give Harbaugh so much credit for achieving essentially the same results his predecessor did just two years earlier.  The fundamental question remains - If coaching is so important, how did Staley achieve the same results as Harbaugh?

Matt - new coach who does not know his players who brings in a new staff, brings in new schemes and has to teach them while replacing a RB1, WR1 and WR2 has in my opinion accomplished more than someone doing it following a year of coaching them.

As fans we think just plug a guy in and he should automatically be productive especially rookies is automatic.  Ladd was better as an NFL player than as a college player playing under a great coach and team.  Seems to me he brought good skills but also got coached up.

In 2024, I believe the Chargers won more because of their D than their O.  In an offensive driven league, they held opposing teams to 17 points or less in 10 of their 17 games. 

[kingm56]

A ton, Flores turned around a historically bad Vikings Defense in one year with virtually the same talent.

Jess,

That assertion is objectively false; the Vikings replaced more than half of their starting defense from 2023 to 2024:

Harrison Phillips            Jerry Tillery
Jonathan Bullard            Harrison Phillips
Danielle Hunter*            Jonathan Bullard
Jordan Hicks            Jonathan Greenard
Ivan Pace            Ivan Pace Jr.
D.J. Wonnum            Blake Cashman
Akayleb Evans            Andrew Van Ginkel
Byron Murphy            Stephon Gilmore
Camryn Bynum            Harrison Smith
Harrison Smith            Camryn Bynum
Josh Metellus            Shaquill Griffin

The Vikings vastly improved their overall talent, especially young talent.

[kingm56]

Matt - new coach who does not know his players who brings in a new staff, brings in new schemes and has to teach them while replacing a RB1, WR1 and WR2 has in my opinion accomplished more than someone doing it following a year of coaching them.

As fans we think just plug a guy in and he should automatically be productive especially rookies is automatic.  Ladd was better as an NFL player than as a college player playing under a great coach and team.  Seems to me he brought good skills but also got coached up.

In 2024, I believe the Chargers won more because of their D than their O.  In an offensive driven league, they held opposing teams to 17 points or less in 10 of their 17 games.

Joe, it's a great response; however, you didn't answer my fundamental question.  You explained Harbough success, but didn't explain Staley success.   How was it the 2021 and 2022 Charges achieved similar records with a terrible HC?

[babywhales]

Chris,

I am not going to presume to tell anyone how to be a fan.  I will say that I have moved on from Daniel Jones.  He isn't on the team, he isn't part of the plans for the team and he no longer impacts the team. 

To me, it's about where the team is at and how the team can reach a point of being a contender.

As for the scheme, those open receivers came at a price, as Giants QBs were in the top quarter in terms of pressures per dropback (about 38% of the dropbacks per PFF.  In other words, Daboll sacrificed protection (by not keeping guys in to protect) to create those open receivers.  Unfortunately, QBs running for their lives are not always in the best position to reach their open receivers.

Probably not the best to use stats over 17 games to make generalizations about the first 9. 

Example.
After the 5th game of the season, the pressure rate on the Giants QB was 20% and the OLine ranked 16th in sacks, pressure and pass blocking.

While technically what you say over 17 games is correct, the story within the story provides more insight as to who, what and why.

[MightyGiants]

Probably not the best to use stats over 17 games to make generalizations about the first 9. 

Example.
After the 5th game of the season, the pressure rate on the Giants QB was 20% and the OLine ranked 16th in sacks, pressure and pass blocking.

While technically what you say over 17 games is correct, the story within the story provides more insight as to who, what and why.

DJ's dropback pressure rate was 37.2%, and Lock's was 38.6%    That's why I was comfortable using the 38% number for the season and didn't feel the need to break it down by quarter.

You may not believe it, but I am pretty proficient in analytics.  If you want to come at me claiming I don't know how to use data correctly, you will more often than not find you are barking up the wrong tree.

[MightyGiants]

Before: The Vikings were 8-9 in 2021 under Mike Zimmer.

After: In Kevin O'Connell's first season (2022), the Vikings went 13-4 and won the NFC North.

[MrGap92]

Are you referring to the narrative that coaching doesn't matter, which requires people to ignore actual facts?

Perhaps, if there was a single person here that ever said that. If they did, I sure haven't seen it.

[MightyGiants]

Perhaps, if there was a single person here that ever said that. If they did, I sure haven't seen it.

Matt @kingm56 has been on a one-man multi-year crusade, arguing the value of coaching is over-rated and hardly matters at all.   I can remember countless posts with poorly selected or misused stats made to down-play the accomplishments of various NFL coaches. 

[babywhales]

DJ's dropback pressure rate was 37.2%, and Lock's was 38.6%    That's why I was comfortable using the 38% number for the season and didn't feel the need to break it down by quarter.

You may not believe it, but I am pretty proficient in analytics.  If you want to come at me claiming I don't know how to use data correctly, you will more often than not find you are barking up the wrong tree.

I will keep that in mind 

Maybe next time I will be "barking up the wrong tree"

[Jclayton92]

Jess,

That assertion is objectively false; the Vikings replaced more than half of their starting defense from 2023 to 2024:

Harrison Phillips            Jerry Tillery
Jonathan Bullard            Harrison Phillips
Danielle Hunter*            Jonathan Bullard
Jordan Hicks            Jonathan Greenard
Ivan Pace            Ivan Pace Jr.
D.J. Wonnum            Blake Cashman
Akayleb Evans            Andrew Van Ginkel
Byron Murphy            Stephon Gilmore
Camryn Bynum            Harrison Smith
Harrison Smith            Camryn Bynum
Josh Metellus            Shaquill Griffin

The Vikings vastly improved their overall talent, especially young talent.

I was talking about named talent, they let Hunter go their marquee guy, all they did was draft well but they didn't acquire anyone remarkable via trade or sign some huge guys in FA.

[babywhales]

Joe, it's a great response; however, you didn't answer my fundamental question.  You explained Harbough success, but didn't explain Staley success.  How was it the 2021 and 2022 Charges achieved similar records with a terrible HC?

Strength of Schedule

2021 17th SOC and a  9-8 Record
2022 26th SOC and a 10-8 Record
2023 3rd SOC and a 5-12 Record
2024 22nd SOC and a 11-7 Record

You need a QB and a HC who connect, both do not need to be great individually but collectively they must connect. 

You can have 1 QB succeed with multiple head coaches like Elway
or
you can have 1 HC succeed with multiple QBs like Joe Gibbs

You can have a great team with a bad coach (Switzer, Pederson, McCarthy )

You can win with a bad team and a great coach (2005 Steelers, 1988 49ers, 2001 Patriots, 2011 Giants)

you need coaching, a QB and a lot of luck

1 or 2 of the 3 will not get it done more often than not

[Philosophers]

Joe, it's a great response; however, you didn't answer my fundamental question.  You explained Harbough success, but didn't explain Staley success.   How was it the 2021 and 2022 Charges achieved similar records with a terrible HC?

Matt - what I think youbare driving at is Staley's success (really in 2022) is because of Herbert.  Here is my response to Staley's 2022 success

1) the Chargers made NFL history having 6 players get 500 receiving yards and 3 TDs.

2) the Chargers were only 6-6 after 12 games but their defense ended up being ranked #1 from weeks 14 to 18 in 3rd down conversions where they limited opponents to only a 3rd down conversion rate of 15 out of 55 attempts during weeks 14-18.  Their D was top 5 during weeks 14-18.

3.  The Chargers were ballhawks with 24 takeaways and a +5 differential.

4. The Chargers punt coverage led the NFL in fewest yards allowed averaging only 3.1 yards per returned punt. That's incredible.

5.  The Chargers went through 3 field goal kickers in 2022 due to injuries yet they still managed to be 2nd in the NFL at 94.3% of extra points and field goals made.  They won 3 of their games with last minute game winning field goals.  Pretty damn lucky if you ask me to maintain that kind of high accuracy kicking continuity across 3 different kickers.

6. Austin Ekeler had a monster season with 1,637 yards from scrimmage, led the NFL with 18 TDs and had 107 receptions.

7. Michael Davis stepped in as starting CB in 12 games over JC Jackson and managed to have 15 passes defended which was 6th best in the NFL.  12 of those 15 passes defended came in weeks 12-18 (remember Chargers were 6-6 after 12 games).

8.  Safety Derwin James and LB David Truill were 2 of only 8 NFL players to generate 100 tackles, 4 sacks, 5 tackles for loss and an INT.  Damn good to have 2 on a team's defense.

9.  Over first 3 years (which includes 2022), Herbert passed for more yards and threw for more TDs than any other QB in NFL history.

I'd conclude from this a whole bunch of contributors and reasons toward that successful season.

[kingm56]

Matt - what I think youbare driving at is Staley's success (really in 2022) is because of Herbert.  Here is my response to Staley's 2022 success

1) the Chargers made NFL history having 6 players get 500 receiving yards and 3 TDs.

2) the Chargers were only 6-6 after 12 games but their defense ended up being ranked #1 from weeks 14 to 18 in 3rd down conversions where they limited opponents to only a 3rd down conversion rate of 15 out of 55 attempts during weeks 14-18.  Their D was top 5 during weeks 14-18.

3.  The Chargers were ballhawks with 24 takeaways and a +5 differential.

4. The Chargers punt coverage led the NFL in fewest yards allowed averaging only 3.1 yards per returned punt. That's incredible.

5.  The Chargers went through 3 field goal kickers in 2022 due to injuries yet they still managed to be 2nd in the NFL at 94.3% of extra points and field goals made.  They won 3 of their games with last minute game winning field goals.  Pretty damn lucky if you ask me to maintain that kind of high accuracy kicking continuity across 3 different kickers.

6. Austin Ekeler had a monster season with 1,637 yards from scrimmage, led the NFL with 18 TDs and had 107 receptions.

7. Michael Davis stepped in as starting CB in 12 games over JC Jackson and managed to have 15 passes defended which was 6th best in the NFL.  12 of those 15 passes defended came in weeks 12-18 (remember Chargers were 6-6 after 12 games).

8.  Safety Derwin James and LB David Truill were 2 of only 8 NFL players to generate 100 tackles, 4 sacks, 5 tackles for loss and an INT.  Damn good to have 2 on a team's defense.

9.  Over first 3 years (which includes 2022), Herbert passed for more yards and threw for more TDs than any other QB in NFL history.

I'd conclude from this a whole bunch of contributors and reasons toward that successful season.

Joe,

This response is why I truly value exchanging ideas with you.  Such an articulate argument deserves a like response, which I don't have time for now. I'll respond tomorrow, if time permits. I just wanted to thank you for your reply.

[Philosophers]

Thanks Matt.  Always appreciate and respect the dialogue with you.

A lot of the stuff I listed in the above post many of which most fans might not know are very different important nuances in a team's success and in generating wins.  I dont assume things are evenly weighted or one factor is 90% of the reason for a team's success.  Like I've said elsewhere, it's the entire batch of ingredients, which are used, which proportions to use and how long to cook that make a great dish.