Tariffs

[Jolly Blue Giant]

The stock market is like a jittery girlfriend with schizophrenia, and you never know what event is going to trigger an unsightly episode. The market will bounce back hard...that is, until the next episode. Most traders are like sheep...when they see someone else selling, they all sell like crazy, afraid of losing their paper wealth...and when they see others buying, they buy with abandon, hoping to ride the next wave to more paper wealth. Although, in this era, it's more like digital wealth than paper wealth. Day trading is not for the faint of heart...some call that the "heart-attack lane". Why live to be 90 when you can die at 60 with a large portfolio of digital wealth

[Bob In PA]

Only one trade war, I could find

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada%E2%80%93United_States_trade_relations

Rich: Who decides when relations/negotiations become a trade war? I'm not an expert, just an observer. Bob

[MightyGiants]

Rich: Who decides when relations/negotiations become a trade war? I'm not an expert, just an observer. Bob

I think most would agree that when there are tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, you are in a trade war.

[LennG]

I don't want to turn this into a political thread as it is heading that way. BUT, our President doesn't know how to 'back-off' if you know what I mean. He can never just see that MAYBE this was the wrong way to go. He always needs to feel he has gotten the upper hand.

That is why I said what I did before in that this will go on and see who blinks first.

[Bob In PA]

I think most would agree that when there are tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, you are in a trade war.

Rich: Here's why I disagree. We all know these tariffs are posturing. Canada (and everyone else) also knows. So, if I were Canada, I'd determine (in the best interests of my country) that I should "deal with this guy" in a language he understands, by matching him tit-for-tat, using the same modus operandi. My point: it's not a war when both sides are posturing and both sides know the other guy is posturing. Bob

[Jolly Blue Giant]

I don't want to turn this into a political thread as it is heading that way. BUT, our President doesn't know how to 'back-off' if you know what I mean. He can never just see that MAYBE this was the wrong way to go. He always needs to feel he has gotten the upper hand.

That is why I said what I did before in that this will go on and see who blinks first.

I agree this could get political, which I don't want. IMO, the President likes to force people to come to the table and negotiate. He gets their attention by doing something radical to get their attention. Once to the table, a compromise is usually worked out that satisfies neither, but is fairer in the long run. It's all in his book, "Art of the Deal". He believes in talking to the opposition and throwing something bizarre out in the wind, so both parties have to sit down and hammer things out

[MightyGiants]

One thing I have noticed is the successful investors keep politics and the logical fallacies employed there out of their investment work.   The same nonsense that can be used to fool the American people will only make you go broke when you start investing (Because the truth and reality matters).  In that light, I found this interesting:


    JIM CRAMER: If we have a recession, banks are the worst stocks. I don't think we'll have a recession–. Like I said, it's manufactured. It's manufactured.

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Well. That doesn't mean there won't be. I'm not sure I understand, you–.

    JIM CRAMER: Oh no, manufactured could easily caused recession. Absolutely. I don't, you know, I'm not I'm not saying that manufactured means it's not going to happen.

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Right.

    JIM CRAMER: I'm saying manufacturing is that you can make it happen. And when you get angry and when you you kind of lose your temper and you get mad instead of, like, the way Sheinbaum handle it in Mexico, it gets people nervous and upset.

    They want the president to be a little happier. They want, you know, there's nothing wrong with being happy. You can be tough as nails and be happy.

    But right now it just feels like, oh, we're going to just screw every– you know, people be screwing us for years and we're going to fight back, which is true. It's absolutely true.

    But you got to explain it very calmly and empirically how we're being hurt by an Italy.

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Yes.

    JIM CRAMER: How we're being hurt by German. And this is going to stop and we're going to make it stop. And then don't scream at those countries.

    It doesn't work! It doesn't work. It doesn't work because they know that they can stand their ground. You tell them, look, I am going to scream you at you. Help us, help us, and we'll help.

    CARL QUINTANILLA: That's still the. The process of retaliation is starting to come into full effect. We heard the comments yesterday from Canada about electricity, taxes and.

    JIM CRAMER: Oh, I know–.

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Doug Ford. I'll gladly shut it off completely if I have to.

    JIM CRAMER: Smoot-Hawley 60% increase in tariffs. There isn't anyone in any history book. I know the president reads history. There's anyone in any history book that doesn't say that wasn't considered–.

    That was a considered reason why we had the Great Depression. There isn't a soul who's ever said that. You look. Go read Galbraith's book. It's really quick. It was a direct cause of the of the depression, not the recession.

    CARL QUINTANILLA: So it–. It is playing with fire. You think?

    JIM CRAMER: Absolutely. But is it arson?

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Meaning that you can contain the blaze, is trhat what you're saying–

    JIM CRAMER: No, meaning that you're doing it–. Maybe it's deliberate!

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Right.

    JIM CRAMER: And it doesn't make any sense that you don't want people to be laid off because of what you said.

    People are scared, Carl. You don't scare people. You don't scare–. It's just. It's a wrong call. It's all message. People are scared!

    Come out with a little bit of humor. Come out and say, listen, I'm going over to Germany. You know it's going to be different for the Germans going forward. Not like, you know, I hate Germany. I mean, come on. They were our allies

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Now you're going–

    JIM CRAMER: — until about fifteen minutes ago.

    CARL QUINTANILLA: Now, the Fundstrat raised this question yesterday. Do you think the president is willing to watch the German and Chinese stock markets go to the moon while ours craters on?

    JIM CRAMER: This weekend I did a piece and I said, everyone keeps thinking about the Dow.

    I think that the president is competitive versus other countries. And he could very quickly say, look, you know, he's distinguished himself as not caring about the stock market.

    Well, how about their stock markets? They're crushing us!

    Are we really going to let the Italian stock market beat us? Is Spain going to– Spain?!? Spain?!? I mean, are you kidding me?!?

[DaveBrown74]

Here is what the Gipper thought about tariffs:


https://x.com/NickKnudsenUS/status/1899452523402150263

[Trench]

I'm a fan of equality across the board. Whatever one nation charges me, I believe we should charge them the same, not a penny more and vice versa. Nothing more nothing less.

[MightyGiants]

I was listening to the news this morning (I limit myself to the time it takes to shower, get dressed and get ready for work).  They were talking about the massive groundswell of anti-American sentiment growing among nations that used to be our friends and allies.

All the nonsense with tariffs and the threats to conquer Greenland and Canada (along with failing to support Ukraine) has created massive hatred for our nation around the world.  The Danish (along with much of Europe and Canada) are trying to find alternatives to their favorite American products.

This will not benefit our economy (the massive drop in export demand) and is damage that is not easily fixed.

As I said, the same logical biases and propaganda that work to fool people into voting for the wrong people don't work in the real world.  Economics doesn't care what you feel (or mistakenly believe); it only functions as an economy's function.  That's why, in all my years of listening to podcasts (and reading books and articles) on investing and economics, political nonsense is never injected into the conversation.

I (and many people I know) saw this coming since the summer; it was the proverbial slow-motion train wreck, and we would almost all suffer, but there was nothing we could do about it. 

[Bob In PA]

I was listening to the news this morning (I limit myself to the time it takes to shower, get dressed and get ready for work).  They were talking about the massive groundswell of anti-American sentiment growing among nations that used to be our friends and allies.

Rich: Why should we care about countries that only SAY they're our friends? Money talks, b.s. walks.

Nearly all of our "friends" depend on US (U.S.) to protect them from Russia, China, et al. and repay us with (in many cases) heave tariffs virtually prohibiting us from doing business in their countries.  Japan and rice comes to mind, off-hand. You know, WE grow rice too. Just one of many examples. Sorry, but I'm sick and tired of losing on BOTH ends of our relationships with our "friends." If that's the only reason why they're our friends, let them be "friends" with Russia and China and they'll soon see the error in that line of thinking.

It's nice (and desirable) to have friends, but what "value" do we get from most of the relationships? Fond best-wishes? Great, but I honestly do not see a true benefit to having friends (other than a tiny group of countries who are highly desirable) and mere handful of others who are not a a net pain-in-the-rear-end.

Bob

[MightyGiants]

Money talks, b.s. walks.

That is the key takeaway from your post.

To that end, here is what the "money" has to say since the tariffs


US Markets

S&P 500 - declined by over 7%,
NASDAQ-  declined by more than 11%

European Markets

Euro Stoxx 50 Index- up approximately 12%
FTSE 100 Index- Gains of 5% and 7 %

Asian Markets

Hang Seng Index-  up 23%
Hang Seng Tech Index-  up 37%


It's almost like there is real world consequences to ignoring experts and the science

[Bob In PA]

That is the key takeaway from your post.

To that end, here is what the "money" has to say since the tariffs


US Markets

S&P 500 - declined by over 7%,
NASDAQ-  declined by more than 11%

European Markets

Euro Stoxx 50 Index- up approximately 12%
FTSE 100 Index- Gains of 5% and 7 %

Asian Markets

Hang Seng Index-  up 23%
Hang Seng Tech Index-  up 37%


It's almost like there is real world consequences to ignoring experts and the science

So what? A meaningless snapshot in time. See me in a few weeks for the next snapshot. Bob

[MightyGiants]

So what? A meaningless snapshot in time. See me in a few weeks for the next snapshot. Bob

[MightyGiants]

Canadians made an estimated 20.4 million visits to the U.S. last year, a number expected to rise by more than a million in 2025, according to the U.S. Travel Association. But the industry group warned last month that even a 10% drop in those visits would cost $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 jobs. Already, Canada's statistical agency reported a 23% drop in Canadian car trips to the U.S. last month compared with February 2024 and a 2.4% dip in residents' round-trip air travel.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/travel/canadian-tourism-boycotts-trump-rcna196136