Tariffs

[DaveBrown74]

Excellent thread and discussion guys. It's encouraging to me to see that there can be a discussion about current events on the Front Porch that is civil and respectful, even if people have differing views. It's great to hear everyone's opinion on an important, topical subject that affects the lives of all Americans.

I will say that as a firm baseline rule, I am no fan of tariffs. I never have been. I am a free market guy, and I don't like anything that stifles competition and, potentially, innovation. So as a base case on this overall topic, I am more with Rich on this subject of tariffs. I think they do more harm than good.

However, I don't have zero sympathy for Bob's points. While I would not say I blanketly agree that longstanding alliances of ours should not be important to us if we don't "get value" out of them, I do think it is a bit tricky to come up with a convincing argument against the concept of reciprocal tariffs with countries who have tariffs on us. If country X is tariffing us 10% on Y widgets, and we currently have zero tariffs on them for the same Y widgets, why is it wrong or a bad idea for us to say "either you bring your 10% down to zero, or we go from zero to 10%"? Why is that not fair?

The reality is there are a lot of complexities to this discussion, and I do get that, but the idea that the US is in the wrong by imposing any tariffs on any countries is not one I automatically agree with (despite generally being no fan of tariffs). We have major trade deficits with a lot of countries, and if that's the case and they have tariffs on our products, why is it wrong to simply say we want it to be an equal playing field? I have a hard time disputing that stance myself.

So while I don't like a lot of what is going on, I am not so binary that I will automatically say anything this administration does is definitively bad. If that were the case, then people should be aggressively criticizing Biden for not removing the tariffs on China for $350b of goods that Trump imposed. He could have gotten rid of those but didn't.

[MightyGiants]

It's not just the tariffs; it's siding with the criminal state of Russia, it's the toxicity, it's the proclaimed expansionist plans, it's the instability.   We, the US citizens, are paying a huge price for the last election.  Here is a prime example of US business suffering (and there is not quick fixes for this sort of damage)


Portugal Drops Plans for F-35 Citing U.S. Political Uncertainty


In an interview with Portuguese media outlet Público published on Mar. 13, 2025, Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo dismissed the possibility of ordering the fifth-generation fighter, aligning with other European nations reconsidering their defense procurement strategies.

Q. Europe is preparing a significant financial package for defence. If the AD government is re-elected, will it approve the purchase of F-35 aircraft?

"The F-16s are at the end of their cycle and we will have to think about their replacement. However, we cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO and in the international geostrategic plan, must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account. We must believe that, in all circumstances, these allies will be on our side. There are several options that must be considered, particularly in the context of European production and also taking into account the return that these options may have on the Portuguese economy."

Q. The Air Force wants this replacement to be made with F-35s, which are American-made aircraft. What you are saying is that, due to the change in American foreign policy, it is less likely that Portugal will replace the F-16s with an American aircraft?

"The world has already changed. There were elections in the US, there was a position in relation to NATO and the world, stated by the Secretary of Defense and by the US President himself, which must also be taken into account in Europe and in what concerns Portugal. And this ally of ours, which has always been predictable over the decades, could bring limitations to use, maintenance, components, and everything that has to do with ensuring that aircraft will be operational and used in all types of scenarios."


https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/13/portugal-f-35-plans/


Each fighter costs between $80 and a $100+ million plus there is all the repeat part sales.   

[MightyGiants]

Fed staff median forecasts call for real gross domestic product growth to be 1.7% by the end of 2025, down from the December forecast's 2.1%, for unemployment to end the year at 4.4%, up from the prior 4.3% and core inflation to conclude 2025 at 2.8%, up from the previous 2.5%.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/03/19/fed-ups-inflation-forecast-and-expects-less-economic-growth-citing-uncertainty/

[MightyGiants]

Americans continue to sour on the US economic outlook as uncertainty around President Donald Trump's policies and higher prices weigh on consumer sentiment.

The latest consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board was 92.9 in March, below the 100.1 seen in February and the lowest level in more than four years. The expectations index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked down to 65.2 from 72.9 and remained below the threshold of 80 — which typically signals recession ahead — for the second straight month.

This marked a 12-year low for the expectations index, which was driven in part by consumer's expectations of their financial situation hitting its lowest level in more than two years.

"One of the most significant developments that we have seen was a decline in financial situation expectations from consumers," Yelena Shulyatyeva, The Conference Board Senior US Economist told Yahoo Finance. "So that seems to suggest that all this uncertainty around economic outlook is really starting to weigh on consumers assessment of how they will fare going forward."

MORE

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-expectations-for-the-economy-hit-their-lowest-level-in-12-years-143308857.html

[Trench]

I believe these tariffs will do wonders for the economy. Already we see numerous big ticket companies committing to building plants in our country which will revitalize areas and create jobs.

If someone charges me 200% tariff then I want to charge them the same 200%.

Time will tell if the policy works or not.

[MightyGiants]

Already we see numerous big ticket companies committing to building plants in our country

How many and which companies?
 

[Trench]

How many and which companies?
 

There is a long list on the official White House website not limited to but including the following

OpenAI/Orackle/Softbank- 500 billion
Apple - 500 billion
TSMC - 100 billion
Nvidia - Hundreds of billions
Stellantis - 5 billion
Ely Lilly - 27 billion
CMA - 20 billion
DAMAC - 20 billion
MERK - 8 billion
Hyundai - 20 billion