Does it matter where in round one you draft a quarterback

[MightyGiants]

In terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).

Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?

Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter?   I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB.  How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".

Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?

[killarich]

My only thing with Dart wasnt he a second round level QB up until very recently ? I know this almost always happens


But man if it isn't Ward or Sanders and we use such high a pick on Dart when other talent is there that will sting.

I am down for trading back and getting more picks to get him. But if not one of the top QB's I personally want Graham then Abdul Carter

[MightyGiants]

My only thing with Dart wasnt he a second round level QB up until very recently ? I know this almost always happens


But man if it isn't Ward or Sanders and we use such high a pick on Dart when other talent is there that will sting.

I am down for trading back and getting more picks to get him. But if not one of the top QB's I personally want Graham then Abdul Carter

Last year, right up until the draft people were telling use Bo Nix and Penix would be round two QBs.   Hell, the Raiders were blindsided when the Falcons took Penix before pick 12 because they were certain that Penix would be available to them with the 12th pick.

When you consider Nix, not only was he drafted much higher than the so-called draft experts predicted, he was in the running for rookie of the year.   

What would the Bronco's fortunes be today if they decided the 12th pick was too high to draft Bo Nix?

"With five quarterbacks already off the board, the Denver Broncos chose not to risk losing their guy. But they pulled the trigger on a second-round quarterback with the 12th overall pick.

"At the very least, Nix is a better value than Michael Penix Jr., whom the Atlanta Falcons took at No. 8 overall. He also should be a good fit in Sean Payton's offense. However, this was a massive reach." -- Brent Sobleski

https://broncoswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/broncos/2024/04/26/nfl-draft-experts-give-broncos-harsh-grades-for-bo-nix-pick/79055373007/

[Bob In PA]

In terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).

Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?

Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter?   I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB.  How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".

Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?

Rich: I was prepared to disagree, but if you didn't convince me, you came really close. Nice post. Bob

[Trench]

Rich: I was prepared to disagree, but if you didn't convince me, you came really close. Nice post. Bob

Ditto for me. Interesting thread.

Very

[andrew_nyGiants]

To be fair, we've only seen one season of Nix less than half a season of Penix. I'm not sure that we can conclude that either are a lock as long term starters at this point. It's possible that they are but I believe we'll know more this year.

[Doc16LT56]

In terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).

Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?

Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter?   I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB.  How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".

Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?

I don't know the answers, but I think you're asking the right questions.

[gregf]

This was the same dilemma with Jones, " he was drafted too early".  It looked like a decent call his rookie season. Unfortunately he never worked out.  The Giants are desperate. If Dart is picked at 3 and plays average QB ball by year 2, it's all good.     

[PSUBeirut]

I'm sorry, but am I the only one with a nervous/anxious twitch reading this?  This is almost exactly the conversation we had around drafting Daniel Jones at 6. 

While I completely agree with you, Rich, in premise- I can't help but feel anxious about the idea of taking a QB substantially earlier than where he is slotted by the vast majority of scouts and front offices.  I mean, there has to be a reason for that slotting, right?  Just because a team believes in a QB and pulls the trigger unfortunately does not minimize the real gamble that team is taking with the pick.  As we have seen painfully play out over the last 5 years. 

I'm afraid I'm on the side of- pick a QB that high that deserves it or don't pick a QB at all. 

[Trench]

In the last 10 years, have more 1st round QBs become franchise guys or do more 2-4th round guys become franchise QBs?

[MightyGiants]

@gregf and @PSUBeirut

The problem with Jones wasn't where he was drafted; it was that he failed to develop into a franchise quarterback. Frankly, the team's fortunes wouldn't have been significantly different had they drafted Jones with their 17th (instead of Dex) or the 30th pick (instead of Baker) in round one (the team's two other first-round picks).

I can't help but feel anxious about the idea of taking a QB substantially earlier than where he is slotted by the vast majority of scouts and front offices.  I mean, there has to be a reason for that slotting, right

That is exactly what the Broncos did last year, how did it turn out for them?


I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?

I don't believe the question should be: Where in round one is he drafted?

[Trench]

@gregf and @PSUBeirut

The problem with Jones wasn't where he was drafted; it was that he failed to develop into a franchise quarterback. Frankly, the team's fortunes wouldn't have been significantly different had they drafted Jones with their 17th (instead of Dex) or the 30th pick (instead of Baker) in round one (the team's two other first-round picks).


That is exactly what the Broncos did last year, how did it turn out for them?


I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?

I don't believe the question should be: Where in round one is he drafted?

The worst thing for Jones was dopey McAdoo being bigger than the show when he decided to kill Eli iron man streak with the kid. It was unnecessary and only added pressure. Had Jones sat a few more games at least (maybe even until the end of the season it would've served him and the Giants so much better.

[jimc]

@gregf and @PSUBeirut


I think the key question is: Does Dart have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB and what are the chances he succeeds?

Exactly!!!!!!!

[T200]

Last year, right up until the draft people were telling use Bo Nix and Penix would be round two QBs.   Hell, the Raiders were blindsided when the Falcons took Penix before pick 12 because they were certain that Penix would be available to them with the 12th pick.

When you consider Nix, not only was he drafted much higher than the so-called draft experts predicted, he was in the running for rookie of the year.   

What would the Bronco's fortunes be today if they decided the 12th pick was too high to draft Bo Nix?


https://broncoswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/broncos/2024/04/26/nfl-draft-experts-give-broncos-harsh-grades-for-bo-nix-pick/79055373007/

This is why I take what the "experts" say with a grain of salt. It's just another person's opinion.

At the end of the day, if the team picking values that person at that position, that's all that matters. People can poo-poo on it all they want... beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

If Schoen goes with Dart at three, good for him. But, regardless of who is picked at #3, he better be good.

[Philosophers]

In terms of Jaxson Dart I hear drafting him 3rd overall is too high, that you want to trade down or trade back into round one to draft him (with a major risk another team jumps you for him).

Five years from now if Dart proves to be a franchise QB of the Bo Nix or Dak Prescott level, will it matter if he was drafted 3 or 23?

Isn't the QB position so important that whatever extra draft capital is expended drafting him "too soon" won't matter?   I mean, conversely, teams give up a king's ransom to move up to draft a QB they believe will be a franchise QB.  How is that any different than drafting a QB "too soon".

Plus, what sort of logic says you like Jaxson Dart, but it's a shame you are drafting 3rd, which is "too high to draft him"?

The only way to know if you overpay for something is to know what others would pay for it.  If every other team would not draft Dart until the 2nd round and you drafted at 3 you overpaid regardless of how good he becomes because theoretically you could have positioned yourself at end of first round to get him.