What coaches say about Sanders

[Painter]

I have to laugh at the use of Ryan Leaf to somehow underscore the uncertainty surrounding the Drafting of a Quarterback in Round 1 when we know that the average success rate for such over the past 20 years has been about 58 percent. That is, of course, if we can agree on a definition or measure of what we regard as "success". And even more so, that we understand what actually is meant by "average"

In predicting and projecting uncertain outcomes, such as with the Draft, we draw conclusions based on anything from a single data point, recent or past e.g., Ryan Leaf to an average of many years' worth of results and so end up with another single data point. And in that regard, because of the variance from year to year over time, it has become almost idiomatic that "plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average.

I suppose that explains why, although not really comparable, we so often use the "crapshoot" analogy in referring to the Draft. In any case, while uncertainty is ever-present, risk is in the eye of the beholder. However, should it make us feel a little better, I can report that the odds of success on average for QBs taken in the top-5 of the Draft is about 80 percent.

Cheers!

[MightyGiants]

I have to laugh at the use of Ryan Leaf to somehow underscore the uncertainty surrounding the Drafting of a Quarterback in Round 1 when we know that the average success rate for such over the past 20 years has been about 58 percent. That is, of course, if we can agree on a definition or measure of what we regard as "success". And even more so, that we understand what actually is meant by "average"

In predicting and projecting uncertain outcomes, such as with the Draft, we draw conclusions based on anything from a single data point, recent or past e.g., Ryan Leaf to an average of many years' worth of results and so end up with another single data point. And in that regard, because of the variance from year to year over time, it has become almost idiomatic that "plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average.

I suppose that explains why, although not really comparable, we so often use the "crapshoot" analogy in referring to the Draft. In any case, while uncertainty is ever-present, risk is in the eye of the beholder. However, should it make us feel a little better, I can report that the odds of success on average for QBs taken in the top-5 of the Draft is about 80 percent.

Cheers!

Larry,

Daniel Jones is a prime example of the challenge in defining success when it comes to drafting a QB.

Some QB success studies I have seen would use "signs a veteran contract with the drafting team" as the measure of a successful QB.  By that standard, DJ was a success, despite common sense being clear he wasn't a successful QB (at least for the Giants and at least as of this point in time).

Another measure I have seen used was "taking their team to at least one playoff or adding the extra standard of winning at least one playoff game.  Again, that captures DJ as a successful pick.

Unless you start using something like Pro Bowls (which has its own issues) or raw stats like yards or TDs per season, the definition of success will be less than perfect.

Of course, there is the other issue of a player like Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff, who proved to be a successful QB (by most reasonable measures), yet the team that drafted them didn't enjoy that success.

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/gmenscouting/status/1907900054012051669?s=46&t=1vcQIN8GqF5J2oLdxEVEJQ

[madbadger]

madb: I'm right there with you.

My only quibble results from a sincere belief that I know less about QB's than they do. lol

So, if they're willing to risk their jobs taking Sanders and passing on either Carter or Hunter, then I say, "Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition" (and old World War I song).

Bob

Let's not pretend that the Giants brain trust does either. They gave Jones an absurd extension after on mediocre season.

[kingm56]

Let's not pretend that the Giants brain trust does either. They gave Jones an absurd extension after on mediocre season.

Is this an absurd extension? They structured the contract so they could move on from him in under two years, which hardly seems absurd. In fact, they were shrewd enough to negotiate terms that many other GMs might not have secured following a playoff appearance. In my view, Schoen navigated the contract wisely by paying more money up front, thereby preserving an exit strategy. It's a reasonable gamble, especially considering the lack of better alternatives.

[madbadger]

Is this an absurd extension? They structured the contract so they could move on from him in under two years, which hardly seems absurd. In fact, they were shrewd enough to negotiate terms that many other GMs might not have secured following a playoff appearance. In my view, Schoen navigated the contract wisely by paying more money up front, thereby preserving an exit strategy. It's a reasonable gamble, especially considering the lack of better alternatives.

$82 million for two years for what amounts to a solid backup quarterback? Yeah it was absurd. He's thrown for more than 15 touchdowns once in his career and that was his rookie year.

[MightyGiants]

Is this an absurd extension? They structured the contract so they could move on from him in under two years, which hardly seems absurd. In fact, they were shrewd enough to negotiate terms that many other GMs might not have secured following a playoff appearance. In my view, Schoen navigated the contract wisely by paying more money up front, thereby preserving an exit strategy. It's a reasonable gamble, especially considering the lack of better alternatives.

Schoen had five options when it came to Daniel Jones

1) Exercise the 5th year option (it didn't make sense at the time but in hindsight the best option)

2) Sign Barkley to a veteran contract and tag Daniel Jones

3) Let Jones hit the open market and match and slightly beat any deal he found

4) Sign DJ to the $80 million-plus deal for what proved to be two seasons (still taking a nearly $25 million cap hit this season)

5) Sign DJ to a long-term veteran contract.


Schoen literally opted for the 2nd worst out of 5 options.  I am not sure how that could be seen as "wise"

[spiderblue43]

I've  seen Sanders confused on tape..hesitant..and not elusive enough. Not really dynamic. Solid. Quick game guy that can maybe be a mid-tier guy..last in the NFL but not at 3...for me..

[Bob In PA]

Let's not pretend that the Giants brain trust does either. They gave Jones an absurd extension after on mediocre season.

madb: Fact. But drafting a QB is mostly about football. Re-signing Jones was largely about business. Bob

[madbadger]

madb: Fact. But drafting a QB is mostly about football. Re-signing Jones was largely about business. Bob

I couldn't disagree more. In what world does it make good business sense to reward an employee who has failed to even approach mediocrity his entire career with a contract with a value far beyond his actual performance to the company? If that is the case why did we balk at paying Barkley fair market value? In fact he was asking for far less than what he ended up getting from Philly and his value to the business was far more impactful than Jones.

I don't know why anyone would try and justify the extension Schoen gave Jones. It was nonsense.

[Philosophers]

I think everyone should step back from all these repeated evaluations of draft prospects and ask themselves, "what is their first knee jerk reaction when they initally look at a prospect?"  Use that for someone like Sanders.  I see a player who may have some very good skills at ball timing and placement simply holds onto the football too much and does not have a big enough arm to make all the necessary throws particularly in December when the weather gets really bad. 

[ralphpal1]

They doubled up the mistake that the Jets did with
Ryan Fitzpatrick
An extra year
4 times the mone
If they were a Jet fan both of them would of realize it was a mistake to give him all that money

[Bob In PA]

I couldn't disagree more. In what world does it make good business sense to reward an employee who has failed to even approach mediocrity his entire career with a contract with a value far beyond his actual performance to the company? If that is the case why did we balk at paying Barkley fair market value? In fact he was asking for far less than what he ended up getting from Philly and his value to the business was far more impactful than Jones.

I don't know why anyone would try and justify the extension Schoen gave Jones. It was nonsense.

madb: I think I failed to explain myself as well as possible. What I meant to say begins with the obvious proposition that football knowledge and business acumen are two entirely different things.

To answer your question, it doesn't make sense, but I believe their mistake was more bad business than lack of football knowledge. Once you draft a guy, you can't look back. Big mistakes sometimes beget bigger mistakes. The big mistake was believing Jones could be a franchise player in the first place. Now that they were stuck with him, and considering they had no one else to replace him with (on the roster or on the horizon) it mattered a lot less at that point what they thought of him as a player. They had to sign somebody to buy time to fix the rest of the roster mess and await the appearance (in the draft or free agency) of the next face of the franchise.

The bottom line for me on Jones' final contract is that IMO it was more a business decision than a display of lack of football knowledge... just like the awful Barkley decision (made at roughly the same time).

Bob

[Philosophers]

Dan Orlovsky had a brilliant point about difficulty in evaluating Shedeur Sanders.  He said 75% of his throws he made in college don't matter in his evaluation of him which makes him so hard to evaluate.  He said that 50% of his throws were inside of 5 yards, basically back to line of scrimmage and another 25% of his throws were made with his OL pass blocking failing so quickly he could not do anything.  As a result, you only have 25% of his throws to evaluate. 

[MightyGiants]

Dan Schneier
@DanSchneierNFL
·
22m
If Giants draft Shedeur; What excites me most:
- throwing mechanics
- toughness
- production without run game + bad OL
What scares me most:
His minus-1.8 average air yards to the first-down marker ranked 132nd among 147 QBs per Tru Media
That's big ^ he'll need to process/find more aggressive solutions v pressure. Giants fans are weathered in watching a QB who threw short of the sticks too often & the impact it had the pass game

https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1908176787391029652