I have to say that Dominiqui was bold in challenging former GM Mike Tannenbaum, but clearly, the NFL has a serious problem drafting QB. I think Foxworthy is addressing the blind spot of so many in the NFL in terms of not appreciating that QBs need the proper environment to develop. Either the NFL can't scout a QB to save their lives or their is the flaw Foxworthy pointed to, that is causing well scouting QBs to fail.
https://x.com/FirstTake/status/1781351256490905935
Quote"The situation matters much more than the player."
I think this is true, and I think it led to the downfall of DJ.
Never had a season where both the OL & WR were in the top half of the league.
2019: Schurmer, Shula
2020: Judge, Garrett, Schlupinski
2021: Judge, Garrett/Kitchens, Schlupinski
2022: Daboll, Kafka, Tierney
2023: Daboll, Kafka, Tierney
2024: Daboll, Kafka, Tierney
His first 3 years were hardly a good situation with that cluster flop of changing systems, changing coaches, no real QB coach his rookie year. Then he got some consistency and showed improvement but was hammered by the almost criminal lack of preparation of the whole team due to the powder puff 2023 off-season program.
I'm not a big Mars fan but I agree with his statement that the Giants did everything possible to screw the kid up - and I hope he was looking in the mirror when he said it.
Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 20, 2024, 01:36:15 PMI think this is true, and I think it led to the downfall of DJ.
Never had a season where both the OL & WR were in the top half of the league.
2019: Schurmer, Shula
2020: Judge, Garrett, Schlupinski
2021: Judge, Garrett/Kitchens, Schlupinski
2022: Daboll, Kafka, Tierney
2023: Daboll, Kafka, Tierney
2024: Daboll, Kafka, Tierney
His first 3 years were hardly a good situation with that cluster flop of changing systems, changing coaches, no real QB coach his rookie year. Then he got some consistency and showed improvement but was hammered by the almost criminal lack of preparation of the whole team due to the powder puff 2023 off-season program.
I'm not a big Mars fan but I agree with his statement that the Giants did everything possible to screw the kid up - and I hope he was looking in the mirror when he said it.
Interestingly enough I think this is the first time since Eli retired that we might have a line and skill position group that won't hold the quarterback back. Don't get me wrong they're not good enough to win the Super Bowl but it won't be like Jones first four years in the league.
The one mistake they could make is to go all in and move up in the draft because we need each of our picks. IMHO if someone offered us two firsts and a second to trade up with us I'd do it to continue to flesh out our roster hoping to go all in on a guy next year with the additional picks.
Quote from: madbadger on April 20, 2024, 02:33:34 PMInterestingly enough I think this is the first time since Eli retired that we might have a line and skill position group that won't hold the quarterback back. Don't get me wrong they're not good enough to win the Super Bowl but it won't be like Jones first four years in the league.
The one mistake they could make is to go all in and move up in the draft because we need each of our picks. IMHO if someone offered us two firsts and a second to trade up with us I'd do it to continue to flesh out our roster hoping to go all in on a guy next year with the additional picks.
Hearing the Broncos are offering teams #12 overall, Patrick Surtain, and a 2025 1st to move up in the draft and I'd be all over that as you'd have bookend corners and edge rushers moving forward.
I understand the point Foxworth is making here, and I know many on this forum share his view, but I just see it differently myself. I think QB is just too important a position in the modern NFL to be messing around with. By that I mean if you're a QB-needy team, and you have an opportunity to get a QB you're very high on, you simply can't pass that up, no matter what the rest of your team looks like. I don't believe any team that is without a good QB has the luxury of doing things in a certain pre-determined order designed to make everything perfect when the new QB arrives. I'd be fine with that approach if I were reasonably confident that I would have a solid chance of getting a very good QB in any draft, as I am with most other positions, no matter where I'm picking, but that just isn't the reality. It's hard enough to get a good QB near the top of the draft. When you're picking say 18th it's just that much harder. If you don't have a good one, and you have one you really believe in in your sights in the draft, you have to pull the trigger there every time in my opinion. If the rest of the offense is so bad that you're worried about it stunting the QB's development or "ruining" him, then you can keep him on ice for a year or two if you want while you make upgrades, but you don't pass up getting him into your organization when you have the opportunity. These opportunities are just too elusive.
As a related point, I found it peculiar that Foxworth brought up three recent history examples of where his point wasn't true. Three is not a small number in this context. There aren't that many great QBs in any given decade. He kind of defeated, or at least significantly weakened, his own point by bringing those guys up.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 20, 2024, 06:49:05 PMHearing the Broncos are offering teams #12 overall, Patrick Surtain, and a 2025 1st to move up in the draft and I'd be all over that as you'd have bookend corners and edge rushers moving forward.
They need a quarterback and if they're moving up they want the guy that they want. The million dollar question will be is the guy they covet going to be available at 6. That IMHO is doubtful. I'd take that deal so fast Payton's head would spin.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 20, 2024, 07:48:58 PMI understand the point Foxworth is making here, and I know many on this forum share his view, but I just see it differently myself. I think QB is just too important a position in the modern NFL to be messing around with. By that I mean if you're a QB-needy team, and you have an opportunity to get a QB you're very high on, you simply can't pass that up, no matter what the rest of your team looks like. I don't believe any team that is without a good QB has the luxury of doing things in a certain pre-determined order designed to make everything perfect when the new QB arrives. I'd be fine with that approach if I were reasonably confident that I would have a solid chance of getting a very good QB in any draft, as I am with most other positions, no matter where I'm picking, but that just isn't the reality. It's hard enough to get a good QB near the top of the draft. When you're picking say 18th it's just that much harder. If you don't have a good one, and you have one you really believe in in your sights in the draft, you have to pull the trigger there every time in my opinion. If the rest of the offense is so bad that you're worried about it stunting the QB's development or "ruining" him, then you can keep him on ice for a year or two if you want while you make upgrades, but you don't pass up getting him into your organization when you have the opportunity. These opportunities are just too elusive.
As a related point, I found it peculiar that Foxworth brought up three recent history examples of where his point wasn't true. Three is not a small number in this context. There aren't that many great QBs in any given decade. He kind of defeated, or at least significantly weakened, his own point by bringing those guys up.
You look at the Jags and the Chargers squandering their elite QB prospect cheap rookie years and you have to question the wisdom of grab a QB no matter what
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 07:20:55 AMYou look at the Jags and the Chargers squandering their elite QB prospect cheap rookie years and you have to question the wisdom of grab a QB no matter what
I get the point about rookie contracts and it being ideal to have a QB in a good situation for four years at a big discount. Still, I would maintain that (1) a top QB is so hard to find that one should not be so preoccupied with timing the order of operations of roster building so perfectly, and (2) a top QB is going to be a 15-plus year investment for your team, so while those four years are certainly important, in my opinion they don't come close to singularly transcending the value of simply finding your guy for the long term.
If your team is bad, and you take a QB with a high first round pick, you still have the rest of that year's draft, free agency, and then future drafts to improve at other positions. It's not like using one single pick in a draft on a QB means you are foregoing all opportunities to build out at other positions.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 20, 2024, 06:49:05 PMHearing the Broncos are offering teams #12 overall, Patrick Surtain, and a 2025 1st to move up in the draft and I'd be all over that as you'd have bookend corners and edge rushers moving forward.
I don't think there's any way the Giants would get that package for #6, but I would trip over myself racing for the phone to accept that offer.
What would you be willing to throw in to make that happen? I wouldn't want to trade a pick this year, but I'd throw in a 2025 3rd rounder.
Then at #12, I think my decision would be between Thomas or Murphy. I think they're both going to be studs.
Thomas is a Higgins clone and would pair nicely with Wan'dale and Hyatt. Murphy is a monster up front, and the prospect of him, Dex, Burns, and KT has me drooling. Imagine those 4 up front with Okereke, MM, Simmons, Banks, Surtain?
Then we'd have 2 #1s next year as ammo to move up.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 21, 2024, 07:40:03 AMI get the point about rookie contracts and it being ideal to have a QB in a good situation for four years at a big discount. Still, I would maintain that (1) a top QB is so hard to find that one should not be so preoccupied with timing the order of operations of roster building so perfectly, and (2) a top QB is going to be a 15-plus year investment for your team, so while those four years are certainly important, in my opinion they don't come close to singularly transcending the value of simply finding your guy for the long term.
If your team is bad, and you take a QB with a high first round pick, you still have the rest of that year's draft, free agency, and then future drafts to improve at other positions. It's not like using one single pick in a draft on a QB means you are foregoing all opportunities to build out at other positions.
Jeff,
I think the flaw in your assumption is that QB prospects will prosper no matter the situation. Take Trevor Lawerance; he was one of the highest-rated QBs coming out of college. Rated far higher than many of the QBs performing at an elite level. Yet, because of the poor support system around him since he was drafted, Lawerence has been, at best, a bit above average. You can see similar issues with Herbert. Even Joe Burrows' career is less than certain because the Bengals are unable to protect him so he has suffered a great deal of physical punishment resulting in injury. Our own Daniel Jones is another prime example.
On the other side of the equation, we have seen ideal developmental support result in non-first-round talent thriving with Hurts, Prescott, and Purdy.
The take a QB at any cost school of thought requires the assumption that the environment an NFL QB develops in doesn't have an impact, and we see far too many examples to see that isn't true.
Even CJ Stroud, pointed to as the example of a QB making a difference, fails to account the team he played for was massively better/more talented, than the one the prior season (thanks to free agency and an outstanding draft and massive coaching improvement)
One of my favorite younger GMs, the Colts' Chris Ballard, gets it:
"When you've got a young quarterback, you've got to protect him," Ballard said, via Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star. "You want to continue to add playmakers around him."
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/chris-ballard-weve-got-to-protect-anthony-richardson-and-get-him-playmakers
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 08:04:04 AMJeff,
I think the flaw in your assumption is that QB prospects will prosper no matter the situation. Take Trevor Lawerance; he was one of the highest-rated QBs coming out of college. Rated far higher than many of the QBs performing at an elite level. Yet, because of the poor support system around him since he was drafted, Lawerence has been, at best, a bit above average. You can see similar issues with Herbert. Even Joe Burrows' career is less than certain because the Bengals are unable to protect him so he has suffered a great deal of physical punishment resulting in injury. Our own Daniel Jones is another prime example.
On the other side of the equation, we have seen ideal developmental support result in non-first-round talent thriving with Hurts, Prescott, and Purdy.
The take a QB at any cost school of thought requires the assumption that the environment an NFL QB develops in doesn't have an impact, and we see far too many examples to see that isn't true.
Even CJ Stroud, pointed to as the example of a QB making a difference, fails to account the team he played for was massively better/more talented, than the one the prior season (thanks to free agency and an outstanding draft and massive coaching improvement)
Rich,
I would follow by saying I think the flaw in your assumption is the notion that if a very highly rated QB prospect like Trevor Lawrence is underwhelming in the NFL, it must be because his surrounding cast isn't good enough. I disagree with that. Just because a QB is a top prospect does not mean he will be good in the NFL, and if he isn't, it is not always because he doesn't have enough around him. Some prospects pan out better than others for reasons that extend beyond supporting cast.
The Giants had a bad supporting cast in 2018. If we could go back in time and redo that draft, I think we can agree we wouldn't take Barkley 2nd overall. With the knowledge you have today, whom would you pick if you could redo it? Would you take Josh Allen or Quentin Nelson (or someone else)?
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 21, 2024, 01:07:31 PMRich,
I would follow by saying I think the flaw in your assumption is the notion that if a very highly rated QB prospect like Trevor Lawrence is underwhelming in the NFL, it must be because his surrounding cast isn't good enough. I disagree with that. Just because a QB is a top prospect does not mean he will be good in the NFL, and if he isn't, it is not always because he doesn't have enough around him. Some prospects pan out better than others for reasons that extend beyond supporting cast.
The Giants had a bad supporting cast in 2018. If we could go back in time and redo that draft, I think we can agree we wouldn't take Barkley 2nd overall. With the knowledge you have today, whom would you pick if you could redo it? Would you take Josh Allen or Quentin Nelson (or someone else)?
Why do you assume Josh Allen would have thrived with the Giants?
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 01:13:18 PMWhy do you assume Josh Allen would have thrived with the Giants?
I consider Josh Allen one of the top three or four QB talents in the league and he's still only 27. As of today, he still has more NFL football in his future than in his past. Maybe his development to being a top QB would have taken longer on the Giants, but as I mentioned earlier QBs are not RBs - you aren't drafting a high first round QB with the sense that you only have 5-7 years to work with with him. If you get a legitimately good one it's a 15 year horizon or more. We can agree to disagree on this if you wouldn't take Allen if given the chance to go back.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 21, 2024, 01:22:36 PMI consider Josh Allen one of the top three or four QB talents in the league and he's still only 27. As of today, he still has more NFL football in his future than in his past. Maybe his development to being a top QB would have taken longer on the Giants, but as I mentioned earlier QBs are not RBs - you aren't drafting a high first round QB with the sense that you only have 5-7 years to work with with him. If you get a legitimately good one it's a 15 year horizon or more. We can agree to disagree on this if you wouldn't take Allen if given the chance to go back.
You can insist the support doesn't impact a QBs development, but the NFL is going the opposite way. Listen to the podcast I linked in the Daniel Jeremiah 3 Ps of support thread. The NFL is realizing just how important the support a QB has in terms of development and performance.
Also, I think you are framing our disagreement in a less-than-ideal manner. Our disagreement is over the importance of a QB's support both in development and performance, not if the Giants would have drafted Josh Allen. You assume he would be the same with the Giants that he was with the Bills, I contend that is an assumption that is more than likely wrong.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 01:29:42 PMYou assume he would be the same with the Giants that he was with the Bills
Can you show me precisely where I said that?
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 21, 2024, 01:42:28 PMCan you show me precisely where I said that?
I have to think you are aware of the concept of subtext. If you no longer want to discuss the topic, that's okay with me.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 01:50:33 PMI have to think you are aware of the concept of subtext. If you no longer want to discuss the topic, that's okay with me.
Yes, I know what subtext is, thanks. I don't know why you would have arrived at the claim you made when I explicitly said "Allen might have taken longer to develop on the Giants than on the Bills." That pretty much ruled out the assumption you claim I am making. There was never any "subtext" that Allen's career on the Giants would have been exactly the same as it was on the Bills to this point.
You have on opinion on this particular subject. I happen to have a different one. I stated the reasons for my view. I was totally respectful from the outset and said that I knew many people saw this issue one way, whereas I happened to see it a different way. I acknowledged my view might be in the minority here. But rather than accept that there is some diversity of opinion on some subjects, you then proceed to come at me with claims of flaws in my reasoning and false assumptions, and then you made a false claim that I think something that I in fact don't think and made very clear earlier I don't think. I don't know why any of that was necessary. It seems a lot easier and more respectful to just accept that not everyone agrees with you on every subject rather than go on the offensive when that is the case.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 21, 2024, 02:20:03 PMI explicitly said "Allen might have taken longer to develop on the Giants than on the Bills."
The support doesn't just speed up or slow down a QBs development it can change a QB's very trajectory. Just ask David Carr and Daniel Jones.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 02:34:29 PMThe support doesn't just speed up or slow down a QBs development it can change a QB's very trajectory. Just ask David Carr and Daniel Jones.
You're assuming both QBs would have different trajectories, if paired with different teams. You have absolutely no way of proving this; yet, you're spouting these theories as facts. Its equally possible both players would fail in different situations. Kenny Pickens had a good situation in Pitt and failed, as do a lot of QBs drafted by good teams. Perhaps Carr wasn't that good to begin with, which is why he failed to enjoy significant success after Hou.
Quote from: kingm56 on April 21, 2024, 02:51:55 PMYou're assuming both QBs would have different trajectories, if paired with different teams. You have absolutely no way of proving this; yet, you're spouting these theories as facts. Its equally possible both players would fail in different situations. Kenny Pickens had a good situation in Pitt and failed, as do a lot of QBs drafted by good teams. Perhaps Carr wasn't that good to begin with, which is why he failed to enjoy significant success after Hou.
You are mixing things up a bit. What I think is close to a fact is that a QB's development and performance are significantly impacted by the support they receive. Given examples are just that, examples. As for Pickens, his issue was character-related, not talent. How much a given player can or were impacted is a matter of some speculation.
Pickens seems to lack a competitive drive and the toughness to handle adversity, based on what we saw transpire with him.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 03:28:41 PMYou are mixing things up a bit. What I think is close to a fact is that a QB's development and performance are significantly impacted by the support they receive. Given examples are just that, examples. As for Pickens, his issue was character-related, not talent. How much a given player can or were impacted is a matter of some speculation.
Pickens seems to lack a competitive drive and the toughness to handle adversity, based on what we saw transpire with him.
As for the Giants regarding your description above, in my opinion we can also erase the name "Pickens" and insert the name "Jones" in the last paragraph
Qbs are either able to lift up their team and the players around them or they cant.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 08:03:42 AMQbs are either able to lift up their team and the players around them or they cant.
So is Herbert a worse QB than what the Giants fielded, since he failed to raise his team and had a worse record than the Giants?
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 08:03:42 AMQbs are either able to lift up their team and the players around them or they cant.
Changing coaching, teams, talent doesn't tangibly alter their trajectory. If they're good, they typically demonstrate that ability around their 25/30 start. There could be an anomaly year, but they always revert to the mean. A lot of NFL execs appear to accept this new paradigm as few teams hold on to underperforming QB beyond 2-to-3 years. Obviously, the Giants are the exception, which is why we're still talking about this 60 games later...
Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 08:53:21 AMChanging coaching, teams, talent doesn't tangibly alter their trajectory.
That claim is simply incorrect. We witnessed the opposite with DJ in 2022. We witnessed it with Mayfield in Tampa. We saw it with Goff in Detroit. We saw it with Geno Smith in Seattle. We saw it with Tua in Miami. Then there are all the college QBs where you saw the transfer portal change their paths with Daniels, Penix, and Bo Nix.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 09:04:53 AMThat claim is simply incorrect. We witnessed the opposite with DJ in 2022. We witnessed it with Mayfield in Tampa. We saw it with Goff in Detroit. We saw it with Geno Smith in Seattle. We saw it with Tua in Miami. Then there are all the college QBs where you saw the transfer portal change their paths with Daniels, Penix, and Bo Nix.
Tua and Jones aren't on the same boat and it's not close. Tua led the league in passing yards, while Jones can't execute a pass oriented offense.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 09:51:14 AMTua and Jones aren't on the same boat and it's not close. Tua led the league in passing yards, while Jones can't execute a pass oriented offense.
Are you suggesting Tua didn't see a sizeable bump in his stats with the addition of Tyreek Hill?
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 09:04:53 AMThat claim is simply incorrect. We witnessed the opposite with DJ in 2022. We witnessed it with Mayfield in Tampa. We saw it with Goff in Detroit. We saw it with Geno Smith in Seattle. We saw it with Tua in Miami. Then there are all the college QBs where you saw the transfer portal change their paths with Daniels, Penix, and Bo Nix.
As indicated by your examples, you clearly did not read all my text and/or spend time analyzing QB trajectories. Since performance is greatly impacted by injuries, I wrote a script to compile data for each year and output tje 17-game average. Once you eliminate injuries as a factor for perceived improvements, you can glean the 17-game averages remain fairly consistent.
Daniel Jones:
Year Cmp% Yds TD Int RTG
2019 61.9 3958 31 16 87.7
2020 62.5 3574 13 12 80.4
2021 64.3 3752 15 11 84.8
2022 67.2 3405 16 5 92.5
2023 67.5 2576 6 17 70.5
2022 was the first year DJ remained healthy for all 16 games; however, his per game output was not tangibly different than his prior two seasons. I also clearly stated that my research suggest QBs can have an anomaly year, before reverting to the mean, which is exactly what happened to DJ.
Jarred Goff
2016 54.6 2645 12 17 63.6
2017 62.1 4311 32 8 100.5 *Pro Bowl
2018 64.9 4981 34 13 101.1 *Pro Bowl
2019 62.9 4928 23 17 86.5
2020 67 4479 23 15 90
2021 67.2 3940 23 10 91.5
2022 65.1 4438 29 7 99.3 *Pro Bowl
2023 67.3 4575 30 12 97.9
This was a really odd example considering Goff was 2x Pro Bowler before he was traded to the Lions He is, and has always been, a good QB.
Baker Mayfield
2018 63.8 4871 35 18 93.7 *AP ORoy-2
2019 59.4 4066 23 22 78.8
2020 62.8 3786 28 9 95.9
2021 60.5 3655 21 16 83.1
2023 64.3 4044 28 10 94.6 *AP COoy-3
Last year wasn't Mayfield's best year; that occurred in 2018. Still, he's remains consistent with his inconsistency; his linear projection is early similar. I'm willing to bet he doesn't duplicate his performance next season.
Geno Smith was jettison after just 22-starts; he didn't get the 25-to-30 starts I clearly indicated as threshold for predicting QB performance. As a spot starter (including with our Giants), after his 25 game, his 17 game average were comparable to last season.
Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 10:26:32 AMAs indicated by your examples, you clearly did not read all my text and/or spend time analyzing QB trajectories. Since performance is greatly impacted by injuries, I wrote a script to compile data for each year and output tje 17-game average. Once you eliminate injuries as a factor for perceived improvements, you can glean the 17-game averages remain fairly consistent.
Daniel Jones:
Year Cmp% Yds TD Int RTG
2019 61.9 3958 31 16 87.7
2020 62.5 3574 13 12 80.4
2021 64.3 3752 15 11 84.8
2022 67.2 3405 16 5 92.5
2023 67.5 2576 6 17 70.5
2022 was the first year DJ remained healthy for all 16 games; however, his per game output was not tangibly different than his prior two seasons. I also clearly stated that my research suggest QBs can have an anomaly year, before reverting to the mean, which is exactly what happened to DJ.
Jarred Goff
2016 54.6 2645 12 17 63.6
2017 62.1 4311 32 8 100.5 *Pro Bowl
2018 64.9 4981 34 13 101.1 *Pro Bowl
2019 62.9 4928 23 17 86.5
2020 67 4479 23 15 90
2021 67.2 3940 23 10 91.5
2022 65.1 4438 29 7 99.3 *Pro Bowl
2023 67.3 4575 30 12 97.9
This was a really odd example considering Goff was 2x Pro Bowler before he was traded to the Lions He is, and has always been, a good QB.
Baker Mayfield
2018 63.8 4871 35 18 93.7 *AP ORoy-2
2019 59.4 4066 23 22 78.8
2020 62.8 3786 28 9 95.9
2021 60.5 3655 21 16 83.1
2023 64.3 4044 28 10 94.6 *AP COoy-3
Last year wasn't Mayfield's best year; that occurred in 2018. Still, he's remains consistent with his inconsistency; his linear projection is early similar. I'm willing to bet he doesn't duplicate his performance next season.
Geno Smith was jettison after just 22-starts; he didn't get the 25-to-30 starts I clearly indicated as threshold for predicting QB performance. As a spot starter (including with our Giants), after his 25 game, his 17 game average were comparable to last season.
Why didn't you include QBR? I consider it one of the top statistics for measuring QB performance. QB rating is nice, but it doesn't take into account a QB's rushing contribution, so I never use one without the other. In fact, I noticed you completely ignored the QB's ground game contributions in all the stats you selected. You know rushing yards and TDs count just as much when a QB runs for them as when they throw for them.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 09:54:36 AMAre you suggesting Tua didn't see a sizeable bump in his stats with the addition of Tyreek Hill?
It doesn't matter if Tyreek hill and Travis kelce joined the Giants, Jones is not leading the league in passing. To think so is extremely unrealistic given his production to this point.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 02:34:49 PMIt doesn't matter if Tyreek hill and Travis kelce joined the Giants, Jones is not leading the league in passing. To think so is extremely unrealistic given his production to this point.
That's where we differ. I consider that Daniel Jones has never had an opportunity to work with a healthy, elite receiver. So, I consider it illogical to assume I know how that would play out if it did happen.
Quote from: madbadger on April 20, 2024, 02:33:34 PMInterestingly enough I think this is the first time since Eli retired that we might have a line and skill position group that won't hold the quarterback back. Don't get me wrong they're not good enough to win the Super Bowl but it won't be like Jones first four years in the league.
The one mistake they could make is to go all in and move up in the draft because we need each of our picks. IMHO if someone offered us two firsts and a second to trade up with us I'd do it to continue to flesh out our roster hoping to go all in on a guy next year with the additional picks.
agreed. lets continue to get this oline right, and take a top receiever and see how jones does. OR, trade down, again see how the oline does, and if they show improvement and jones stinks again, use the picks next year to move up and get our guy, when we have a better situation. plus it would be much easier to move on from jones next year than this year.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 20, 2024, 07:48:58 PMI understand the point Foxworth is making here, and I know many on this forum share his view, but I just see it differently myself. I think QB is just too important a position in the modern NFL to be messing around with. By that I mean if you're a QB-needy team, and you have an opportunity to get a QB you're very high on, you simply can't pass that up, no matter what the rest of your team looks like. I don't believe any team that is without a good QB has the luxury of doing things in a certain pre-determined order designed to make everything perfect when the new QB arrives. I'd be fine with that approach if I were reasonably confident that I would have a solid chance of getting a very good QB in any draft, as I am with most other positions, no matter where I'm picking, but that just isn't the reality. It's hard enough to get a good QB near the top of the draft. When you're picking say 18th it's just that much harder. If you don't have a good one, and you have one you really believe in in your sights in the draft, you have to pull the trigger there every time in my opinion. If the rest of the offense is so bad that you're worried about it stunting the QB's development or "ruining" him, then you can keep him on ice for a year or two if you want while you make upgrades, but you don't pass up getting him into your organization when you have the opportunity. These opportunities are just too elusive.
As a related point, I found it peculiar that Foxworth brought up three recent history examples of where his point wasn't true. Three is not a small number in this context. There aren't that many great QBs in any given decade. He kind of defeated, or at least significantly weakened, his own point by bringing those guys up.
very true..but also hard to make quality upgrades when you give up high draft capital to make the big move for the qb.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 07:20:55 AMYou look at the Jags and the Chargers squandering their elite QB prospect cheap rookie years and you have to question the wisdom of grab a QB no matter what
nailed it.
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 21, 2024, 01:07:31 PMRich,
I would follow by saying I think the flaw in your assumption is the notion that if a very highly rated QB prospect like Trevor Lawrence is underwhelming in the NFL, it must be because his surrounding cast isn't good enough. I disagree with that. Just because a QB is a top prospect does not mean he will be good in the NFL, and if he isn't, it is not always because he doesn't have enough around him. Some prospects pan out better than others for reasons that extend beyond supporting cast.
The Giants had a bad supporting cast in 2018. If we could go back in time and redo that draft, I think we can agree we wouldn't take Barkley 2nd overall. With the knowledge you have today, whom would you pick if you could redo it? Would you take Josh Allen or Quentin Nelson (or someone else)?
josh allen all day. however...you can argue the bills were/are better at any point since then, than the giants have been at any point since then.
Quote from: Trench on April 21, 2024, 10:13:53 PMAs for the Giants regarding your description above, in my opinion we can also erase the name "Pickens" and insert the name "Jones" in the last paragraph
Jones was one of the toughest competitors i've ever seen. dude took beating after beating and kept going until he was either knocked silly with a concussion, or ripped his leg up. while the results were never there, no one can ever say the dude didnt give it EVERYTHING he had.
Quote from: B1GBLUE on April 22, 2024, 04:39:25 PMvery true..but also hard to make quality upgrades when you give up high draft capital to make the big move for the qb.
I agree with you. There is a difference between giving up a king's ransom to move up when you're bad versus just drafting a QB when you're bad with the pick you have. That is a more than fair and accurate statement. No argument from me on that one. It makes it a harder decision, but, for me at least, it doesn't get me to completely rule out doing it if I have very high conviction on the pick.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 02:37:05 PMThat's where we differ. I consider that Daniel Jones has never had an opportunity to work with a healthy, elite receiver. So, I consider it illogical to assume I know how that would play out if it did happen.
Nor a reasonably competent OL. It always amuses me when people claim that everything has to be perfect for Jones to be effective when no one has ever seen him with even an average OL/WR combo.
Quote from: B1GBLUE on April 22, 2024, 04:38:18 PMagreed. lets continue to get this oline right,
To be a pedantic twit for a moment, you can't continue something that you haven't started. The Giants actions with respect to the OL illustrate the difference between effort and work. Effort expends energy, while work accomplishes something.
I think QBs coming out of college are way more advanced then they use to be
I.remember a very good starting QB said
Playing John Madden taught him more than what college did
I think its easier to see how good he would be after year 3 or 4
Mighty if u are comparing or asking me would I take Herbert over Jones in terms of elevating the team then the answer is a resounding YES!....its not even close.
Too many still believe (after what 5 years) this guy is the next coming....the same people will be up in arms when (after Thursday)
we draft a new QB and he doesn't have great success before year 3.
MARK MY WORDS PLEASE
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 02:37:05 PMThat's where we differ. I consider that Daniel Jones has never had an opportunity to work with a healthy, elite receiver. So, I consider it illogical to assume I know how that would play out if it did happen.
If he had a "healthy, elite receiver", would he still bird dog him and telegraph where he's going with the ball?
Would he still look for checkdowns when the pressure comes instead of giving his elite receiver an opportunity to catch a contested ball?
Will he still wait until his elite receiver has at least five yards of separation before going deep?
Would he still hear footsteps when he has a clean pocket?
Would he look downfield when the play breaks down to find any open receivers?
Those are my issues with Jones and why I feel we need to move on from him.
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 08:10:06 AMIf he had a "healthy, elite receiver", would he still bird dog him and telegraph where he's going with the ball?
Would he still look for checkdowns when the pressure comes instead of giving his elite receiver an opportunity to catch a contested ball?
Will he still wait until his elite receiver has at least five yards of separation before going deep?
Would he still hear footsteps when he has a clean pocket?
Would he look downfield when the play breaks down to find any open receivers?
Those are my issues with Jones and why I feel we need to move on from him.
Tim,
How did you determine the faults you claim DJ has?
Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 22, 2024, 09:35:50 PMNor a reasonably competent OL. It always amuses me when people claim that everything has to be perfect for Jones to be effective when no one has ever seen him with even an average OL/WR combo.
Acknowledging up front that none of us have a crystal ball, what, in your estimation, is Jones's ceiling if he had one elite receiver and a "reasonably competent OL"? Specifically, top 10? Top 5? What's he averaging (yards, TDs, INTs, completion %) over a three-year period with that type of support?
Just curious.
Personally, I see a 5-10% bump above his '22 stats.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 23, 2024, 08:13:05 AMTim,
How did you determine the faults you claim DJ has?
Rich,
Can you kindly answer my questions first? ;)
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 08:14:57 AMRich,
Can you kindly answer my questions first? ;)
From my perspective, your question seems to be based on a false or hyperbolic premise. That makes it difficult for me to answer. Is DJ seeing ghosts because of NYG's failure to protect? It appears so. Would an elite WR change that? It's hard to say; I haven't talked to DJ (the team does have a sports psychologist, which would be helpful. Will DJ stay healthy with an elite WR? Again, hard to say
As
@AZGiantFan brought up with the claims of many of DJ's critics that he needs perfect conditions (when DJ hasn't even had NFL normal), it's tough to discuss a player when the criticism is often more hyperbolic than reasoned. Oddly enough, the more myself and others try to be fair in our assessment of DJ, it seems to push the criticism of Jones to even greater levels.
Both NY Giants backups moved the ball downfield ALOT better than Jones did with the same cast. It was clearly evident to me. That is what supports Tim's analysis in my opinion.
Seeing what our backups did as opposed to Jones in the same season with the same Personell is going to be the nail in his coffin when the Giants likely choose a QB on Thursday.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 23, 2024, 08:21:06 AMFrom my perspective, your question seems to be based on a false or hyperbolic premise. That makes it difficult for me to answer. Is DJ seeing ghosts because of NYG's failure to protect? It appears so. Would an elite WR change that? It's hard to say; I haven't talked to DJ (the team does have a sports psychologist, which would be helpful. Will DJ stay healthy with an elite WR? Again, hard to say
As @AZGiantFan brought up with the claims of many of DJ's critics that he needs perfect conditions (when DJ hasn't even had NFL normal), it's tough to discuss a player when the criticism is often more hyperbolic than reasoned. Oddly enough, the more myself and others try to be fair in our assessment of DJ, it seems to push the criticism of Jones to even greater levels.
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 08:10:06 AMIf he had a "healthy, elite receiver", would he still bird dog him and telegraph where he's going with the ball?
Would he still look for checkdowns when the pressure comes instead of giving his elite receiver an opportunity to catch a contested ball?
Will he still wait until his elite receiver has at least five yards of separation before going deep?
Would he still hear footsteps when he has a clean pocket?
Would he look downfield when the play breaks down to find any open receivers?
My questions, in your perspective, are based on "a false or hyperbolic premise" yet yours is based on...???
The same way you can watch him in games and determine he's seeing ghosts, is the same way I and others can watch those same games and see the things I mentioned. Your eyes aren't better or worse than ours. It's a football Rorschach test.
Most of us have been fair in our assessments of Jones. We just assess him differently than you do. We account for the lack of support from the offensive line but we don't excuse his lack of production because of it. You and others give him a pass for it and want to wait until he gets the proper support in order to truly evaluate him. If "no QB can thrive in this situation" as you and others have suggested, then it also follows that it is extremely asinine and wasteful to throw 80+ million dollars at a guy who has demonstrably proven that he cannot stay healthy or be productive behind this "offensive" line. Of course, that's not on Jones. But his lack of production is.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 23, 2024, 08:13:05 AMI think where our concerns diverge is what the future holds for him if he has proper support.
Tim,
How did you determine the faults you claim DJ has?
The same as yours, Rich. Watching the games and reporting what I'm seeing. The fact that others here have seen the same or similar tells me that I'm not DJ... I'm not seeing 'ghosts', which you feel he is. I happen to agree with you. We also agree on the reason: lack of protection primarily.
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 09:05:54 AMMy questions, in your perspective, are based on "a false or hyperbolic premise" yet yours is based on...???
The same way you can watch him in games and determine he's seeing ghosts, is the same way I and others can watch those same games and see the things I mentioned. Your eyes aren't better or worse than ours. It's a football Rorschach test.
Most of us have been fair in our assessments of Jones. We just assess him differently than you do. We account for the lack of support from the offensive line but we don't excuse his lack of production because of it. You and others give him a pass for it and want to wait until he gets the proper support in order to truly evaluate him. If "no QB can thrive in this situation" as you and others have suggested, then it also follows that it is extremely asinine and wasteful to throw 80+ million dollars at a guy who has demonstrably proven that he cannot stay healthy or be productive behind this "offensive" line. Of course, that's not on Jones. But his lack of production is.
The same as yours, Rich. Watching the games and reporting what I'm seeing. The fact that others here have seen the same or similar tells me that I'm not DJ... I'm not seeing 'ghosts', which you feel he is. I happen to agree with you. We also agree on the reason: lack of protection primarily.
Tim,
From my perspective, DJ has had some of the worst protection and receivers, and until Daboll, the worst coaching to support him since coming into the league. While I appreciate that many of Jones' critics believe that QBs can somehow make linemen block better and receivers get open, I don't share that view. I believe that QBs are impacted by the support they receive not vice versa.
In addition, I have to reconcile comments from someone I greatly respect, like Greg Cosell (I admire both his tape study acumen as well as his extreme adherence to intellectual honest), who talks about Daniel Jones having the ability to be a good NFL QB with the criticism I see on this forum which from the comments many of the critics seem to think Jones has no redeeming qualities. Plus, there are the intellectually dishonest comments about "excuse making" or "Jones needs everything perfect," which really make it difficult to take some of the critics seriously. It also doesn't help that I have seen many of the Jones critics beating their chests, talking about how they have been "right" about Jones being a bad QB (that sort of thing shows that bias is possible, if not likely).
Look, there isn't an NFL commentator I respect that didn't agree with Mara's comment about doing everything possible to screw up Daniel Jones. I am mindful that such actions can have permanent and/or lasting consequences. Jones has never enjoyed the support an NFL QB needs to be fully successful. Unfortunately, now, injuries, being gun shy from the beating, and faults being magnified by the bad situation may have derailed DJ's career permanently, especially in light of the injuries he sustained.
Look, I appreciate my role in creating some of the extreme criticism. It seems when I challenged what I felt was unfair criticism, it tended to only make the critics dig in their heals and become even more negative on Daniel Jones. The reality is short of a miracle comeback by Jones. I doubt the most ardent critics of Jones, and I will never see eye to eye on the subject. That's life, people will see things differently.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 23, 2024, 09:19:56 AMTim,
From my perspective, DJ has had some of the worst protection and receivers, and until Daboll, the worst coaching to support him since coming into the league. While I appreciate that many of Jones' critics believe that QBs can somehow make linemen block better and receivers get open, I don't share that view. I believe that QBs are impacted by the support they receive not vice versa.
...
Look, I appreciate my role in creating some of the extreme criticism.
Rich,
Respectfully, this is where I bow out of the conversation. The statement I highlighted is what creates the tension here. When positions are grossly misrepresented, frankly, it pisses people off when their words get twisted. For the record, not one person has ever stated that.
I appreciate the exchange. :cheers:
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 09:32:15 AMRich,
Respectfully, this is where I bow out of the conversation. The statement I highlighted is what creates the tension here. When positions are grossly misrepresented, frankly, it pisses people off when their words get twisted. For the record, not one person has ever stated that.
I appreciate the exchange. :cheers:
Tim,
You seem to constantly challenge me, but that's okay. I don't post my opinions lightly, and I am more than capable of defending my thoughts from your challenges. To your point, are you suggesting that fans don't claim that QBs can improve the play of their offensive teammates? You went kind of afield of things when you suggested my rewording was "twisting." What I did was reword the point to better illustrate what was said. Sure, the vague QB raises the play of those around him SOUNDS better, but it's not as detailed as listing the jobs of those around them that a QB is "elevation" to illustrate the point better.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 23, 2024, 09:37:29 AMTim,
You seem to constantly challenge me, but that's okay. I don't post my opinions lightly, and I am more than capable of defending my thoughts from your challenges. To your point, are you suggesting that fans don't claim that QBs can improve the play of their offensive teammates? You went kind of afield of things when you suggested my rewording was "twisting." What I did was reword the point to better illustrate what was said. Sure, the vague QB raises the play of those around him SOUNDS better, but it's not as detailed as listing the jobs of those around them that a QB is "elevation" to illustrate the point better.
There is a difference in challenging your statement(s) versus challenging you, the person.
I did not challenge you; I posed questions to you regarding your statement about Jones not having an elite receiver.
When you put forth a statement and incorrectly attribute it to a group of people, loosely based on something that was previously said, that is twisting words. No two ways about it.
At this point, I do challenge you to find a post claiming, "
Jones' critics believe that QBs can somehow make linemen block better and receivers get open..." If you can't, then please retract that as it is a false accusation and goes against the decorum of the board.
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 09:44:08 AMThere is a difference in challenging your statement(s) versus challenging you, the person.
I did not challenge you; I posed questions to you regarding your statement about Jones not having an elite receiver.
When you put forth a statement and incorrectly attribute it to a group of people, loosely based on something that was previously said, that is twisting words. No two ways about it.
At this point, I do challenge you to find a post claiming, "Jones' critics believe that QBs can somehow make linemen block better and receivers get open..." If you can't, then please retract that as it is a false accusation and goes against the decorum of the board.
Tim,
How exactly does a quarterback "elevate the play of those around them" if not by having them do their jobs better??? I appreciate the phrase, which is a common one, but if I take on your role of challenging things, the phrase doesn't hold up to even moderate scrutiny.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 23, 2024, 09:47:07 AMTim,
How exactly does a quarterback "elevate the play of those around them" if not by having them do their jobs better??? I appreciate the phrase, which is a common one, but if I take on your role of challenging things, the phrase doesn't hold up to even moderate scrutiny.
Ball placement and accuracy: hitting a receiver in stride, throwing it to a spot that doesn't get him killed.
Touch and finesse on passes. Not telegraphing passes to give the safety a bead on the pass/receiver.
Pocket awareness.
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 09:54:10 AMBall placement and accuracy: hitting a receiver in stride, throwing it to a spot that doesn't get him killed.
Touch and finesse on passes. Not telegraphing passes to give the safety a bead on the pass/receiver.
Pocket awareness.
If a receiver doesn't get open, runs the wrong route, or fails to catch the ball or the blocking doesn't give he QB time to throw, none of what you just cited matters. There needs to be a level of performance before a QB's play can make a difference.
Quote from: T200 on April 23, 2024, 08:13:52 AMAcknowledging up front that none of us have a crystal ball, what, in your estimation, is Jones's ceiling if he had one elite receiver and a "reasonably competent OL"? Specifically, top 10? Top 5? What's he averaging (yards, TDs, INTs, completion %) over a three-year period with that type of support?
Just curious.
Personally, I see a 5-10% bump above his '22 stats.
Top ten
Quote from: Trench on April 23, 2024, 01:21:49 AMMighty if u are comparing or asking me would I take Herbert over Jones in terms of elevating the team then the answer is a resounding YES!....its not even close.
Too many still believe (after what 5 years) this guy is the next coming....the same people will be up in arms when (after Thursday)
we draft a new QB and he doesn't have great success before year 3.
MARK MY WORDS PLEASE
Maybe a better question would be how good would Herbert be with a horrific OL, no elite receivers, and three years of cluster flop, unstable coaching?
Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 23, 2024, 03:45:02 PMMaybe a better question would be how good would Herbert be with a horrific OL, no elite receivers, and three years of cluster flop, unstable coaching?
We already have the proof we need which few will discuss and is commonly glossed over and that is the fact our 2 backups moved the ball much better downfield than Jones. This is proof. Everything else is based on maybes and opinions