Big Blue Huddle

General Category => Big Blue Huddle => Topic started by: MightyGiants on November 29, 2023, 05:51:58 PM

Title: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 29, 2023, 05:51:58 PM
https://x.com/doug_analytics/status/1729989842514108492?s=46&t=1vcQIN8GqF5J2oLdxEVEJQ
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: GeauxJints on November 29, 2023, 07:37:48 PM
LMAOOO not a good look for DJ
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 29, 2023, 07:42:00 PM
Quote from: GeauxJints on November 29, 2023, 07:37:48 PMLMAOOO not a good look for DJ

Actually it shows DJ had the worst conditions (in terms of protection) in the league.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: GeauxJints on November 29, 2023, 09:12:33 PM
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 29, 2023, 07:42:00 PMActually it shows DJ had the worst conditions (in terms of protection) in the league.
Tyrod had the same line and Devito's line not much different. DJ doesn't know how to audible for protection.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: JT39 on November 29, 2023, 09:19:01 PM
Quote from: GeauxJints on November 29, 2023, 09:12:33 PMTyrod had the same line and Devito's line not much different. DJ doesn't know how to audible for protection.

That has nothing to do with the stat.

It may have to do with the fact that neither Taylor nor Devito had the ineptness of Ezeudu, McKathean, Mayfield, and what other inept OL were playing.

Having Thomas and Pugh (as bad as he is) are worlds better than those mentioned previously.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Ed Vette on November 29, 2023, 09:24:56 PM
One factor is the competition faced. To see how much it may have been a factor, rack the Defensive pass rush by team for each QB.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Bob In PA on November 29, 2023, 09:44:13 PM
Rich: Stop bothering us with information while we're spouting off like Ahab's white whale. Bob
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: kingm56 on November 29, 2023, 09:49:04 PM
Quote from: Bob In PA on November 29, 2023, 09:44:13 PMRich: Stop bothering us with information while we're spouting off like Ahab's white whale. Bob

Bob,

The problem with this metric is it's viewed in a complete vacuum; for example, some of the pressures are the result of blitzing and/or crowding the LoS because DCs know DJ has poor processing skills; thus, he's unlikely to decipher what the defense is doing (i.e. burn them).  It's not a consequence the OL has looked better under Taylor, who has marginally better processing speed than DJ. I do appreciate Ed's notion of considering relative DL strengths...I think that matters too. 
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Philosophers on November 29, 2023, 10:16:22 PM
Quote from: kingm56 on November 29, 2023, 09:49:04 PMBob,

The problem with this metric is it's viewed in a complete vacuum; for example, some of the pressures are the result of blitzing and/or crowding the LoS because DCs know DJ has poor processing skills; thus, he's unlikely to decipher what the defense is doing (i.e. burn them).  It's not a consequence the OL has looked better under Taylor, who has marginally better processing speed than DJ. I do appreciate Ed's notion of considering relative DL strengths...I think that matters too. 

Every metric can be parsed.  Also, a fan can't tell if say a missed block on a blitzing LB was the result of a QB not calling the right blocking assignment or an OL player simply not making the block.

You are also drawing a conclusion in which other conclusions can be drawn.  For example, you are saying the OL has looked better under Taylor and saying he has better processing speed, but the OL can look better because OL players are healthier, OL players are learning now how to play better and communicate better amongst themselves, Kafka is calling a play that is more advantageous to the offense or that Taylor is processing the play better than DJ.

I am not saying DJ has good or bad processing speed.  I don't know but I also think no fan knows.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: kingm56 on November 29, 2023, 10:38:48 PM
Quote from: Philosophers on November 29, 2023, 10:16:22 PMEvery metric can be parsed.  Also, a fan can't tell if say a missed block on a blitzing LB was the result of a QB not calling the right blocking assignment or an OL player simply not making the block.

You are also drawing a conclusion in which other conclusions can be drawn.  For example, you are saying the OL has looked better under Taylor and saying he has better processing speed, but the OL can look better because OL players are healthier, OL players are learning now how to play better and communicate better amongst themselves, Kafka is calling a play that is more advantageous to the offense or that Taylor is processing the play better than DJ.

I am not saying DJ has good or bad processing speed.  I don't know but I also think no fan knows.

i didn't draw any conclusion other than to say this metric shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum.  Moreover, pressure doesn't equate to bad QB play, as demonstrated by Burrow, Lawerence, Herbert, Purdy, etc.  Again, fans overcomplicate the simplistic; the OL started playing better when a different QB was inserted, no matter how you parse the data....
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 29, 2023, 11:59:10 PM
Quote from: GeauxJints on November 29, 2023, 09:12:33 PMTyrod had the same line and Devito's line not much different. DJ doesn't know how to audible for protection.
Yes. In his fifth season Daniel Jones still plays like a rookie. Not sure why it's so difficult for others here to see.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 30, 2023, 12:02:35 AM
Quote from: Philosophers on November 29, 2023, 10:16:22 PMEvery metric can be parsed.  Also, a fan can't tell if say a missed block on a blitzing LB was the result of a QB not calling the right blocking assignment or an OL player simply not making the block.

You are also drawing a conclusion in which other conclusions can be drawn.  For example, you are saying the OL has looked better under Taylor and saying he has better processing speed, but the OL can look better because OL players are healthier, OL players are learning now how to play better and communicate better amongst themselves, Kafka is calling a play that is more advantageous to the offense or that Taylor is processing the play better than DJ.

I am not saying DJ has good or bad processing speed.  I don't know but I also think no fan knows.
It could also be magical elves conspiring against Daniel Jones. We can't say for sure. No one knows. Perhaps in 4-5 more years we'll have enough information to properly evaluate Jones.  /sarcasm/
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: kingm56 on November 30, 2023, 01:56:27 AM
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 30, 2023, 12:02:35 AMIt could also be magical elves conspiring against Daniel Jones. We can't say for sure. No one knows. Perhaps in 4-5 more years we'll have enough information to properly evaluate Jones.  /sarcasm/

LOL...For four years we've been listening to fans explaining away DJ's ineptitude, which makes me think of the line from MoneyBall: "If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit"?  Let's not overcomplicate our observations; DJ's fails to produce above-average passing numbers, because he's not an above-average passer.  It's not lost on me that the fans who follow this very simply philosophy have been correct about DJ's (and other QBs (Donald/Mayfield) maturation for the past 4-years. Those that continue to profess the importance of coaching, systems, and other support apparatuses are often proven incorrect (Donald w/Rhule comes to mind).   Over the last 30 years, a QB demonstrates their abilities by game ~26; after that, they don't magically move to different tiers through the wonders of coaching, or supporting casts.  Yet, fans continue to discuss said maturation as if they're common occurrences.  I guess it's more entertaining than just agreeing he's not very good...
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: BluesCruz on November 30, 2023, 05:17:44 AM
Offensive linemen respond to positive feedback

This chart shows Tommy is getting time to pass
perhaps thats because the linemen try a bit harder for a QB they feel will complete a decent pass most of the time

Why break your back for a QB who dumps it off 60% of the time

Same for Rushing.  Barkley is having a better statistical year than I figured he would at 4.2 YPC....normally he is 3.4 guy.
Again the Oline is helping him find real holes and creases

Human nature- Success breeds Success
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Bob In PA on November 30, 2023, 08:10:28 AM
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 29, 2023, 11:59:10 PMYes. In his fifth season Daniel Jones still plays like a rookie. Not sure why it's so difficult for others here to see.
Doc: I think even his strongest defenders (I'm one) will acknowledge disappointment.

I only speak for me but the issue is whether he ever got a fair shot, and there are just too many reasons for us to hang our hats on in answering that question in the negative.

Even the owner admitted it in public. However, I'm on your side in the sense that I think you can only go for so long before you give up. We probably differ on WHEN to give up. I'd say not until after next season regardless of whether they draft a QB in 2024 (unless it's a player who takes the job away from Jones rather than having it handed to him).

Bob
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: JT39 on November 30, 2023, 08:25:14 AM
If players are trying harder based off whos QBing.... they should be cut immediately. That is about as unprofessional as an individual can be.

And I doubt this is true anyways, since Jones has been nothing but a great teammate and a standup individual.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: kingm56 on November 30, 2023, 08:34:17 AM
Quote from: JT39 on November 30, 2023, 08:25:14 AMIf players are trying harder based off whos QBing.... they should be cut immediately. That is about as unprofessional as an individual can be.

And I doubt this is true anyways, since Jones has been nothing but a great teammate and a standup individual.

Have you considered the human factor?  Jaylen Hyatt has been a true professional; however, who you do you believe he prefers to play with...A QB who provides him with an opportunity to demonstrate his deep receiving skills, or a really nice guy who rarely throws him the ball?  Do you think a 21-year old will try just a bit harder for the former, vice the latter? 
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: uconnjack8 on November 30, 2023, 08:40:09 AM
Quote from: BluesCruz on November 30, 2023, 05:17:44 AMOffensive linemen respond to positive feedback

This chart shows Tommy is getting time to pass
perhaps thats because the linemen try a bit harder for a QB they feel will complete a decent pass most of the time

Why break your back for a QB who dumps it off 60% of the time

Same for Rushing.  Barkley is having a better statistical year than I figured he would at 4.2 YPC....normally he is 3.4 guy.
Again the Oline is helping him find real holes and creases

Human nature- Success breeds Success

This isn't the subject of the discussion, but where did you get that number?  His avg for his career is 4.4 ypc.  He had one year, 2021 that was below 4 ypc. 


As for the OP - There are a bunch of factors that can be contributing to the increased time to through and pressure rate diminishing. Hard for me to look at this and point at one thing.  If you follow the QBs its gotten better over the course of the year.  Is that the OL improving?  QBs making better adjustments at the line? Play calling?  Competition?

I am really surprised by the chart.  Devito has been getting pummeled but it shows he has more time and gets pressured less?
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: JT39 on November 30, 2023, 08:49:39 AM
Quote from: kingm56 on November 30, 2023, 08:34:17 AMHave you considered the human factor?  Jaylen Hyatt has been a true professional; however, who you do you believe he prefers to play with...A QB who provides him with an opportunity to demonstrate his deep receiving skills, or a really nice guy who rarely throws him the ball?  Do you think a 21-year old will try just a bit harder for the former, vice the latter? 

It does not matter. If you are really insisting that players arent trying as hard for Jones - thats a huge problem.

As regards to Hyatt, the numbers show his playing time has increased once Jones got hurt. And against Raiders - Jones took multiple deep hots to him - albeit unsuccessfully.

Maybe some times we can admit that playing guys like Ezeudu, McKathean, Mayfield, and some of the others signed off other teams practice squads were just really bad at their jobs. Its not to excuse Jones performance this year. He has been bad as well. Its can be a lot of things.

I mean I think Andrew Thomas is a better LT than Ezedu and Jones pretty much didnt have Thomas all year. Lets put it this way. When Taylor started against Buffalo - MNF showed their PFF rankings. The 5 starters were either last or next to last in positional rankings. Thats on them for not doing their jobs.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 08:55:45 AM
I find the disconnect sort of interesting.

Some fans want to blame DJ for the terrible conditions he faced.

Then I hear Carl Banks on his podcast saying the offensive line has greatly improved during the season because there was a drastic reduction in free rushers allowed  (due to fewer mistakes being made by linemen).

My own view is that Banks' comments make more sense and certainly do a better job explaining things.  The idea that a QB who went to Duke and has been praised for his smarts and work ethic would struggle reading defenses pre-snap seems pretty far-fetched.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: katkavage on November 30, 2023, 09:28:17 AM
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 08:55:45 AMI find the disconnect sort of interesting.

Some fans want to blame DJ for the terrible conditions he faced.

Then I hear Carl Banks on his podcast saying the offensive line has greatly improved during the season because there was a drastic reduction in free rushers allowed  (due to fewer mistakes being made by linemen).

My own view is that Banks' comments make more sense and certainly do a better job explaining things.  The idea that a QB who went to Duke and has been praised for his smarts and work ethic would struggle reading defenses pre-snap seems pretty far-fetched.

What? Duke? Smarts? Come on. I hope you know better than that, MG. No one is doubting DJ's intelligence. And what school you went to has nothing to do with your football intelligence. Since he has been in the league, Jones has not displayed the instincts and decision-making, no matter how brilliant a mind he has, that elite or even franchise QBs possess. Duke, Harvard, Stanford can't teach what Hurts or Mahomes or so many others know instinctively.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Philosophers on November 30, 2023, 09:30:16 AM
Quote from: kingm56 on November 29, 2023, 10:38:48 PMi didn't draw any conclusion other than to say this metric shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum.  Moreover, pressure doesn't equate to bad QB play, as demonstrated by Burrow, Lawerence, Herbert, Purdy, etc.  Again, fans overcomplicate the simplistic; the OL started playing better when a different QB was inserted, no matter how you parse the data....

When you say pressure doesn't equate to bad QB play, as demonstrated by Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Purdy, etc., what are you basing that on, sacks say in a season?
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Ed Vette on November 30, 2023, 09:33:16 AM
The Pass Protection has improved even though Tommy is getting sacked. He's holding the ball longer and then doesn't throw it away. He's had some decent pockets.

The difference from my perspective between DJ and Tommy is that DJ is a sad sack with no performance or sideline personality. When DJ screws up or it's a bad play, he sits alone on the bench sulking. He doesn't have a short memory. I can only imagine what goes on in the huddle. Does that mean the players try harder for Tommy? No. It's Tommy's confidence and enthusiasm that becomes contagious and they play better because of it. A lot of this game and btw, our own success is about confidence and attitude.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: katkavage on November 30, 2023, 09:28:17 AMWhat? Duke? Smarts? Come on. I hope you know better than that, MG. No one is doubting DJ's intelligence. And what school you went to has nothing to do with your football intelligence. Since he has been in the league, Jones has not displayed the instincts and decision-making, no matter how brilliant a mind he has, that elite or even franchise QBs possess. Duke, Harvard, Stanford can't teach what Hurts or Mahomes or so many others know instinctively.

Now, I am seeing some of the disconnect.  You ignored an important qualifier I used, "pre-snap."  While there has been debate over Jones' "post-snap" processing and decision-making, there has been nothing to suggest there is a pre-snap issue.  Pre-snap is about film work and general intelligence.  It's about seeing what is on the field in front of you with enough time to process.  Post-snap things move fast and that takes different skills and abilities to process quickly and correctly.

Of course, the other issue is that those trying to blame Jones seem to be forgetting how many blown-blocking assignments we all witnessed at the beginning of the season in terms of picking up stunts and twists.  Those are not the QB's fault, that is 100% on the O-line.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 09:38:39 AM
Quote from: Philosophers on November 30, 2023, 09:30:16 AMWhen you say pressure doesn't equate to bad QB play, as demonstrated by Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Purdy, etc., what are you basing that on, sacks say in a season?

It's odd how some people will cite exceptions to create rules.  99% of the time, QB play is negatively impacted by pressure (as Wink says, pressure breaks pipes).  It truly astonishes me that some fans claim pressure doesn't cause problems for a QB.  Any proper review of stats and metrics will clearly demonstrate that isn't the case.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 30, 2023, 09:41:47 AM
Quote from: katkavage on November 30, 2023, 09:28:17 AMWhat? Duke? Smarts? Come on. I hope you know better than that, MG. No one is doubting DJ's intelligence. And what school you went to has nothing to do with your football intelligence. Since he has been in the league, Jones has not displayed the instincts and decision-making, no matter how brilliant a mind he has, that elite or even franchise QBs possess. Duke, Harvard, Stanford can't teach what Hurts or Mahomes or so many others know instinctively.
Exactly. There is a reason the Air Force isn't just recruiting a bunch of Harvard Law School graduates to pilot their fighter jets. It's a completely different type of intelligence needed combined with a physical skill set and mental disposition that very few people have. You wouldn't say, "this kid wrote an amazing thesis paper, so he should be an amazing pilot."

Even pre-snap, there is a unique psychology needed to make split second assessments and adjustments. It has nothing to do with your classroom academics.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 09:59:34 AM
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 30, 2023, 09:41:47 AMEven pre-snap, there is a unique psychology needed to make split second assessments and adjustments. It has nothing to do with your classroom academics.

As I said, I don't agree with this claim.  There is a reason QBs, as a group, have the highest Wonderlic grades.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: BluesCruz on November 30, 2023, 10:27:36 AM
There is no doubt Tommy is getting cleaner pockets.....there have been plays where he "has all day" but no one is open.  I cannot recall Jones getting ANY clean pockets....always under siege.

Tommys sacks are his "thing"....he will wait until the last possible microsecond to wait for an open target....he trades sacks for yards.  He has said this in interviews...he says there is a fine line between a last second pass and taking the sack.  He prefers not to be distracted by when and where he can throw it away. I think over time he will learn to get rid of the ball.  Eli had this same mode of operation.   The problem with Tommy taking sacks is the injury factor but so far he seems very durable.

Human Nature creates a feedback loop....you show me its worth my while and I will block ferociously

You show me you can advance the ball and I will open the hole you need

I agree lineman should go all out on every play but they do not
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Doc16LT56 on November 30, 2023, 10:57:58 AM
There are very intelligent and accomplished people on this board who have to watch a game multiple times in order to have a good understanding of what happened. Even veteran head coaches often say they need to go back to watch the tape before they can comment on individual plays. It's not that every one of them is lacking in intelligence. It's that there is an enormous amount of information to consume and presumably infinite ways to interpret that information.

Imagine the pressure of lining up at QB in a stadium in front of thousands, with millions more watching on TV. You know that everything you do will end up being parsed and studied and picked apart. The pressure is always there. Then within a matter of seconds you have to read a defense that was designed to fool you, identify potential blitzers, shift protection if needed, identify coverage, look for gaps or weaknesses, adjust the play if needed, look for anyone who is cheating in any direction while considering down, distance, score, tendencies from film, experience gained from all previous plays so far, and any other relevant factors, and do it all in a way that the 10 men around you truly believe you are worthy of following.

If you're really good you might consider the personnel you're going up against. Is the free safety hiding a sore ankle? Is the middle linebacker easily fooled by the play fake? How far back do I anticipate the All Pro nose guard pushing my journey man center in the first 2 seconds?

You have to do this when your coach has been screaming in your ear, and when three different people have just given you advice on what the defense is doing. And you understand that the 11 players across from you are motivated to hurt you and humiliate you.

This is somewhat different than the intelligence needed to sit at a desk and write a complicated algorithm with a mid-day Thursday deadline. Do people here really understand how difficult the QB position is? It's not a test of academic intelligence?
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: kartanoman on November 30, 2023, 11:12:29 AM
Quote from: Doc16LT56 on November 30, 2023, 10:57:58 AMThere are very intelligent and accomplished people on this board who have to watch a game multiple times in order to have a good understanding of what happened. Even veteran head coaches often say they need to go back to watch the tape before they can comment on individual plays. It's not that every one of them is lacking in intelligence. It's that there is an enormous amount of information to consume and presumably infinite ways to interpret that information.

Imagine the pressure of lining up at QB in a stadium in front of thousands, with millions more watching on TV. You know that everything you do will end up being parsed and studied and picked apart. The pressure is always there. Then within a matter of seconds you have to read a defense that was designed to fool you, identify potential blitzers, shift protection if needed, identify coverage, look for gaps or weaknesses, adjust the play if needed, look for anyone who is cheating in any direction while considering down, distance, score, tendencies from film, experience gained from all previous plays so far, and any other relevant factors, and do it all in a way that the 10 men around you truly believe you are worthy of following.

If you're really good you might consider the personnel you're going up against. Is the free safety hiding a sore ankle? Is the middle linebacker easily fooled by the play fake? How far back do I anticipate the All Pro nose guard pushing my journey man center in the first 2 seconds?

You have to do this when your coach has been screaming in your ear, and when three different people have just given you advice on what the defense is doing. And you understand that the 11 players across from you are motivated to hurt you and humiliate you.

This is somewhat different than the intelligence needed to sit at a desk and write a complicated algorithm with a mid-day Thursday deadline. Do people here really understand how difficult the QB position is? It's not a test of academic intelligence?

Is this why Quarterback get paid along the line of CEOs of Fortune 500 companies? Your eloquent post offers compelling reasons why that might be the case.

Well done! I enjoyed the read.

Peace!
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 11:12:52 AM
Here's another interesting metric along the same lines

Week 7-  PFF had the Giants' O-line ranked dead last

Week 13-  PFF has the Giants' line 27th
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Philosophers on November 30, 2023, 11:22:39 AM
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 09:38:39 AMIt's odd how some people will cite exceptions to create rules.  99% of the time, QB play is negatively impacted by pressure (as Wink says, pressure breaks pipes).  It truly astonishes me that some fans claim pressure doesn't cause problems for a QB.  Any proper review of stats and metrics will clearly demonstrate that isn't the case.

My rules for utilizing statistics

1) Do not utilize a small number of statistical exceptions to draw a conclusion.

2) Do not draw a conclusion from a statistical result without understanding that other factors unknown to you may be impacting positively or negatively that statistical result. 
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Fletch on November 30, 2023, 11:33:32 AM
Quote from: Philosophers on November 29, 2023, 10:16:22 PMI am not saying DJ has good or bad processing speed.  I don't know but I also think no fan knows.

I don't know? I didn't watch Tyrod throw to players who I never heard any kind of announcer call their name out before? I.e. Hyatt?

I never saw Slayton catch a 20+ yard pass since like Eli Manning was here.

But sure I don't know a QB who is clearly making faster decisions with the ball.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Philosophers on November 30, 2023, 12:03:19 PM
Quote from: Fletch on November 30, 2023, 11:33:32 AMI don't know? I didn't watch Tyrod throw to players who I never heard any kind of announcer call their name out before? I.e. Hyatt?

I never saw Slayton catch a 20+ yard pass since like Eli Manning was here.

But sure I don't know a QB who is clearly making faster decisions with the ball.

You (nor anyone) don't know all the things going into a successful or unsuccessful play as it is happening too quickly with too many moving parts and factors.  You are watching it from one camera angle.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 12:34:03 PM
Quote from: Philosophers on November 30, 2023, 11:22:39 AMMy rules for utilizing statistics

1) Do not utilize a small number of statistical exceptions to draw a conclusion.

2) Do not draw a conclusion from a statistical result without understanding that other factors unknown to you may be impacting positively or negatively that statistical result. 

Those are pretty good rules.  My rule is to look at the stats BEFORE drawing conclusions, not look for stats or examples that support your conclusion.

Hell, I often look to the exceptions as a way to challenge a rule or assumption, but I don't look to exceptions to create the rule.

I also enjoy reading or listening to well-founded views that don't match my own.  It gives me a chance to see if I have some bad assumptions or if I need to rework my conclusions.


Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Bob In PA on November 30, 2023, 01:19:29 PM
Quote from: MightyGiants on November 30, 2023, 11:12:52 AMHere's another interesting metric along the same lines

Week 7-  PFF had the Giants' O-line ranked dead last

Week 13-  PFF has the Giants' line 27th
Rich: To that I can only say, "Whoop-de-doo!"  lol
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: BluesCruz on November 30, 2023, 01:25:34 PM
Tommy has the ultimate stat so far

Win Baby Win!!!  Just win

I was really getting sick of my team losing and getting crushed doing it

Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: BluesCruz on November 30, 2023, 01:31:37 PM
Quote from: BluesCruz on November 30, 2023, 01:25:34 PMTommy has the ultimate stat so far

Win Baby Win!!!  Just win

I was really getting sick of my team losing and getting crushed doing it

If things continue like this, and Daboll does not let Tommy finish the season he should be fired.  Let Wink run the team
We have one more meaningful game with Philly...Man would I like to turn the tables on them
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 02:17:00 PM
Think we should hold off on that for now, I mean after all you wanted Davis Webb to start the playoff game last year. Let's let the guy that gets paid to make football decisions make them.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 02:25:24 PM
As far as Jones, weren't there multiple videos at the beginning of the year of people clowning him because he wasn't even doing basic rookie things like sliding protections on a free blitzers?

A bad Qb has a tendency to make the team around him look much worse than they are.

Has the oline gotten marginally better? Yes probably so but the Qb play has also gotten better which also helps with that.

If you look at Jones, the journeyman, and the undrafted rookies stats blind, Jones is likely Qb 3 which is comical because he makes 8× more than the journeyman a year and 53× the rookie.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: T200 on November 30, 2023, 04:53:37 PM
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 02:17:00 PMThink we should hold off on that for now, I mean after all you wanted Davis Webb to start the playoff game last year. Let's let the guy that gets paid to make football decisions make them.
That guy has struck out on his decisions at QB so far. Just sayin'...  8))
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 05:24:56 PM
Quote from: T200 on November 30, 2023, 04:53:37 PMThat guy has struck out on his decisions at QB so far. Just sayin'...  8))
I think the media/fan base is more to blame than he is. After all he didn't give him the 5th year option and once last season was over the media and a large majority wanted him back at all cost despite his pedestrian numbers. At the end of last season the fan base would have been furious if we signed Mayfield, or minshew over retaining Jones even though it was the right thing to do. So schoen did the best he could by resigning Jones bc there was nothing else out there, and then creating the escape latch likely knowing the end result.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: T200 on November 30, 2023, 05:38:14 PM
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 05:24:56 PMI think the media/fan base is more to blame than he is. After all he didn't give him the 5th year option and once last season was over the media and a large majority wanted him back at all cost despite his pedestrian numbers. At the end of last season the fan base would have been furious if we signed Mayfield, or minshew over retaining Jones even though it was the right thing to do. So schoen did the best he could by resigning Jones bc there was nothing else out there, and then creating the escape latch likely knowing the end result.
Sorry, J... can't roll with you on that one. He's getting paid the big bucks to make the right decisions. He's been O-fer on the QB front. The media and fans aren't to blame. Sure, there would have been grumblings but as long as his plan works, he gets the credit. If it doesn't work, he gets the blame.

My kids used to get mad at me because they didn't agree with my decisions at times. Oh well... I'm the parent and it's ultimately my call. And we all have to live with it.

And just to be clear, I was 100% with him on not picking up the 5th year option and the new contract. So, I'm not casting stones... just calling it as I see it. I can afford to be wrong; Joe can't.  :P  :P
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: 4 Aces on November 30, 2023, 07:55:32 PM
This is a serious question and I genuinely mean no disrespect to anyone:

Do people really not see that Taylor and DeVito have gotten far better protection than DJ? Forget anything the QB is doing. Can you not evaluate that? If you can't, listen to Bobby Skinner's OL breakdowns etc., he's not a professional but he can at least give you some idea what you're looking at.

Otherwise, it should be fairly obvious - the eye test backs up the chart. It was historically bad protection. What was the stat opening week? It was the most pressure a QB had ever faced in a single game since they started recording the stat.

They're just ordinary bad now. They were arguably the worst OL anyone had ever seen earlier.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 11:01:09 PM
Quote from: 4 Aces on November 30, 2023, 07:55:32 PMThis is a serious question and I genuinely mean no disrespect to anyone:

Do people really not see that Taylor and DeVito have gotten far better protection than DJ? Forget anything the QB is doing. Can you not evaluate that? If you can't, listen to Bobby Skinner's OL breakdowns etc., he's not a professional but he can at least give you some idea what you're looking at.

Otherwise, it should be fairly obvious - the eye test backs up the chart. It was historically bad protection. What was the stat opening week? It was the most pressure a QB had ever faced in a single game since they started recording the stat.

They're just ordinary bad now. They were arguably the worst OL anyone had ever seen earlier.
Yes we see the difference in the protection, but the difference in the protection isn't enough to justify horrible play. The protection went from 32nd to 27th, which is better but only marginally.  Now look at what a franchise Qb should be able to do for an offense vs an undrafted free agent and the gap shouldn't be that small.

Tyrod had a guy on his couch the week before instead of Jones having ezeudu so that should be a good eye test to show that something is wrong with the starting Qb.

The problem is that this is who Jones has been even last year the staff just masked it well. He got away with 180 yard games that we had no business winning but did. Jones is horrible at progressions, and scanning the field, on top of having a horrible clock and a refusal to look beyond 6 yards down the field.

Jones was still going to be Jones no matter who was in at oline which is the problem. If Jones was 100% healthy right now I would take Devito and Taylor over him. At least I know the football will go beyond 10 yards with them and we would have at minimum a slightly average offense.
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: BluesCruz on December 01, 2023, 02:33:02 AM
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 11:01:09 PMYes we see the difference in the protection, but the difference in the protection isn't enough to justify horrible play. The protection went from 32nd to 27th, which is better but only marginally.  Now look at what a franchise Qb should be able to do for an offense vs an undrafted free agent and the gap shouldn't be that small.

Tyrod had a guy on his couch the week before instead of Jones having ezeudu so that should be a good eye test to show that something is wrong with the starting Qb.

The problem is that this is who Jones has been even last year the staff just masked it well. He got away with 180 yard games that we had no business winning but did. Jones is horrible at progressions, and scanning the field, on top of having a horrible clock and a refusal to look beyond 6 yards down the field.

Jones was still going to be Jones no matter who was in at oline which is the problem. If Jones was 100% healthy right now I would take Devito and Taylor over him. At least I know the football will go beyond 10 yards with them and we would have at minimum a slightly average offense.

well put and honest assessment
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: MightyGiants on December 01, 2023, 09:45:44 AM
Quote from: Jclayton92 on November 30, 2023, 05:24:56 PMI think the media/fan base is more to blame than he is. After all he didn't give him the 5th year option and once last season was over the media and a large majority wanted him back at all cost despite his pedestrian numbers. At the end of last season the fan base would have been furious if we signed Mayfield, or minshew over retaining Jones even though it was the right thing to do. So schoen did the best he could by resigning Jones bc there was nothing else out there, and then creating the escape latch likely knowing the end result.

Suggesting the fans influenced Schoen's decisions is a damning accusation.

Remember this football truism-  The GM that thinks like a fan will quickly join the fans
Title: Re: QB pressure rate vs time to pressure
Post by: Jclayton92 on December 01, 2023, 01:36:30 PM
Quote from: MightyGiants on December 01, 2023, 09:45:44 AMSuggesting the fans influenced Schoen's decisions is a damning accusation.

Remember this football truism-  The GM that thinks like a fan will quickly join the fans
How? Mara and a ton of the fan base were in full bloom love with Jones even after the disastrous Eagles playoff game and his pedestrian yardage and Td numbers last year. Then at the start of camp into the preseason the fan base and media again overhyped a below average Qb. Detriot rag dolled us in practices and it was seen as they were just practicing harder on their home field etc etc. Instead of holding Jones accountable the fans and media made excuses for him habitually and turned their noses up at people pointing out the obvious flaws in Jones.

Yes schoen likely made the best of a bad decision but I believe the fan base and media's coddling of Jones didn't help.

I mean there is still a portion of the fan base that Still think he's the guy because people made so many excuses for him for so long that they legitimately can't stop making them.