So just watched the holiday bowl, USC vs a really good Louisville team. Caleb Williams sat out declaring for the Draft and redshirt Sophmore Miller Moss started for the first time in his place.
He proceeded to go 23 of 33 for 372 yards 6, YES, 6 tds, with a 69.7 cmp% and a 218 Qb rating.
Floored that a kid making his first start broke Caleb Williams tds in a game record. Then I thought about it even more, yes Moss is talented but he wasn't some highly decorated 5 star, he was a 4 star recruit who seemed decent.
So that got me thinking of Lincoln Riley as a coach, if Williams goes number 1 that will be 3 number 1 overall picks at Qb that he's coached with 4 total in the NFL right now or about to be. (Mayfield, Murray, Hurts, and Williams once drafted)
Murray and Mayfield havent lived up to their billing, and Hurts was Hurts before Riley got him. So is it Lincoln Rileys system or the players? Because now that bowl game makes me almost want to put Maye 1 Daniels 2 and Williams 3. All those Qbs and even now a sophomore with no experience playing phenomenal in Rileys system kind of scares me away from Williams.
Not to say it's the end all be all but that kid never starting and lighting it up, added with Murray and Mayfield lighting it up in college but not really in the NFL makes me want to throw a wet blanket on the Caleb Williams hype train and reasses him as a prospect. At the very least to have a discussion on whether or not Riley produces phenomenal System Qbs, rather than phenomenal pro QB prospects.
J: Very thoughtful and insightful note. In addition to your points, I'll add one more possibility.
Riley and his staff excel at selecting which QB's to go after.
When you pick the right guys, the teaching (coaching) is easier and more productive.
Bob
Superbly thought-provoking post J-Clay, and very well backed up by facts, patterns, and sharp analysis. Just another example of high quality content from you.
No doubt there are some college coaches/systems that can really make average QBs look good and decent QBs look very good to great. Maybe that's true of Riley. I think it's an astute and valid observation.
I always think it's possible that any QB can underwhelm. Predicting which college QBs will be good in the pros is one of the harder things to do in sports analysis that I have encountered (in any sport). Obviously those who are employed by NFL teams and earning 7 figure salaries get it wrong all the time, and they have a lot more in the way of analytical and predictive resources than fans do. Fans also tend to remember the ones they get right a lot better than the ones they whiff on...
Williams, no doubt, could be a bust or could at least significantly underwhelm relative to expectations. The hype has been off the charts. I would to your comments that USC QBs have a history of underwhelming substantially relative to the hype. Mark Sanchez, Darnold, and Matt Leinart are a few recent examples.
I do think some have cooled on Williams (not just on this board but in general) based on his less than stellar showings in certain games this year as well as some of his off the field demeanor, but he still figures to be the most likely player to go number one.
More likely than not he won't be available to us, although there is a chance he could be through a trade. I will say this much: in the event that we do trade up to get him (I put the odds of that at no higher than 5%), I will have to believe that Schoen and his team have done an immense amount of due diligence on the guy and legitimately believe he will be a star. And I still believe in Schoen. So I'll be totally supportive if that happens, even though I will be the first to acknowledge that there is a lot of risk involved.
Fair assessment. Mayfield, Murray, and Hurts are all capable QBs who are starting material in the league, obviously! Williams is the most gifted out of all three in my opinion. In watching him take over in the Texas game while at OU to his career at USC his talent jumps off the screen. The throws and plays he makes with his feet are off the charts. He will be the #1 pick in the draft and I expect him to be a high caliber franchise QB, so if somehow the Giants get Williams, I'd be ecstatic. Now I say all that without knowing his mental makeup. Based on some body language and such he may not be suitable for the New York market. That would be the only hesitation I'd have.
Quote from: sooners56 on December 28, 2023, 08:53:17 AMFair assessment. Mayfield, Murray, and Hurts are all capable QBs who are starting material in the league, obviously! Williams is the most gifted out of all three in my opinion. In watching him take over in the Texas game while at OU to his career at USC his talent jumps off the screen. The throws and plays he makes with his feet are off the charts. He will be the #1 pick in the draft and I expect him to be a high caliber franchise QB, so if somehow the Giants get Williams, I'd be ecstatic. Now I say all that without knowing his mental makeup. Based on some body language and such he may not be suitable for the New York market. That would be the only hesitation I'd have.
sooners: It occurred to me that somehow he reminds me of our bad experience with Eli Apple.
Based on the bold print above, I fairly certain you will agree and see why I say that.
I'm afraid if the Giants "force" themselves to take a QB in round 1 it will be this guy, because if we both see that particular problem with Williams, the teams picking ahead of us are likely to see it, too.
Bob
As I've said before, he has all the football skills and physical talent to be the next Mahomes. But he has bust written all over him.
I think all four of the QB's Riley has recently coached are all no doubt, talented and all four are capable of playing in this league. I think Riley's system is a major contributor to their Colegate success though. It seems if a QB in his system goes down, whoever the backup is, they seem to step in and the transition is barely noticeable.
I think his first gig as HC at USC hasn't gone as well as planned, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him offered a gig as OC in the NFL at some point. (and if I'm being honest, I wouldn't mind it being with the Giants)
Even if it's the system, and I have very little knowledge of college football except what I read and hear, the questions that come up for me is why Riley hasn't been hired by an NFL team and why teams draft system QBs and then don't use the system that brought them success.
Quote from: Bob In PA on December 28, 2023, 09:24:31 AMsooners: It occurred to me that somehow he reminds me of our bad experience with Eli Apple.
Based on the bold print above, I fairly certain you will agree and see why I say that.
I'm afraid if the Giants "force" themselves to take a QB in round 1 it will be this guy, because if we both see that particular problem with Williams, the teams picking ahead of us are likely to see it, too.
Bob
I definitely understand but I think a lot of the body language and crying to momma gets overblown. The talent is there so I'd be interested to know what his teammates have to say about him. If his teammates vouch for him then as a teams GM I wouldn't put too much stock into all that nonsense. However, if his teammates bring it up or mention Williams negatively, then I would be weary of drafting him. Either way, unless the Giants trade up, Williams will be someone else's franchise QB or headache.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on December 28, 2023, 01:50:40 AMSo just watched the holiday bowl, USC vs a really good Louisville team. Caleb Williams sat out declaring for the Draft and redshirt Sophmore Miller Moss started for the first time in his place.
He proceeded to go 23 of 33 for 372 yards 6, YES, 6 tds, with a 69.7 cmp% and a 218 Qb rating.
Floored that a kid making his first start broke Caleb Williams tds in a game record. Then I thought about it even more, yes Moss is talented but he wasn't some highly decorated 5 star, he was a 4 star recruit who seemed decent.
So that got me thinking of Lincoln Riley as a coach, if Williams goes number 1 that will be 3 number 1 overall picks at Qb that he's coached with 4 total in the NFL right now or about to be. (Mayfield, Murray, Hurts, and Williams once drafted)
Murray and Mayfield havent lived up to their billing, and Hurts was Hurts before Riley got him. So is it Lincoln Rileys system or the players? Because now that bowl game makes me almost want to put Maye 1 Daniels 2 and Williams 3. All those Qbs and even now a sophomore with no experience playing phenomenal in Rileys system kind of scares me away from Williams.
Not to say it's the end all be all but that kid never starting and lighting it up, added with Murray and Mayfield lighting it up in college but not really in the NFL makes me want to throw a wet blanket on the Caleb Williams hype train and reasses him as a prospect. At the very least to have a discussion on whether or not Riley produces phenomenal System Qbs, rather than phenomenal pro QB prospects.
Jess - it's not about Riley I think but about USC instead. You have to understand the advantage USC has over every other school. Here's what I mean.
Unlike the South and Texas, the two other bed of 5 star players, California is the third but more importantly it is FAR from the other traditional college football university powers. The Oregon Ducks are closest to LA and they are a 12 hour drive. If USC is at all relevant, they can and typically do own almost all of the CA 5 star prospects who want to play in a large media market at a top 25 university and be close to home. Pete Carroll said when he was at USC that he could hold a morning practice then hop in a limo to visit 5 inner city very strong high s hopl football programs and be home for dinner.
Lastly there are certain high schools that have a reputation for producing top high school QBs. Schools like Mater Dei and Oaks Christian Academy — both are within an hour of USC.
Whatever Riley's system is shouldn't matter to a pro scout. He has to look at the athlete and see his QB potential. He can't ignore his college stats but they are secondary to how they feel he will transition to the pro game.
Quote from: Philosophers on December 28, 2023, 12:01:31 PMLastly there are certain high schools that have a reputation for producing top high school QBs. Schools like Mater Dei and Oaks Christian Academy — both are within an hour of USC.
Our daughter teaches at Oaks Christian.
Quote from: Philosophers on December 28, 2023, 12:01:31 PMJess - it's not about Riley I think but about USC instead. You have to understand the advantage USC has over every other school. Here's what I mean.
Unlike the South and Texas, the two other bed of 5 star players, California is the third but more importantly it is FAR from the other traditional college football university powers. The Oregon Ducks are closest to LA and they are a 12 hour drive. If USC is at all relevant, they can and typically do own almost all of the CA 5 star prospects who want to play in a large media market at a top 25 university and be close to home. Pete Carroll said when he was at USC that he could hold a morning practice then hop in a limo to visit 5 inner city very strong high s hopl football programs and be home for dinner.
Lastly there are certain high schools that have a reputation for producing top high school QBs. Schools like Mater Dei and Oaks Christian Academy — both are within an hour of USC.
I thought I read here that William's had a poor supporting cast, is that incorrect in your opinion?
Quote from: uconnjack8 on December 28, 2023, 12:23:09 PMI thought I read here that William's had a poor supporting cast, is that incorrect in your opinion?
I read that USC has 10 Rivals 5 star prospects on their 2023 team. To give you some context, Michigan (ranked #1) has maybe 2. USC has talent. Just bad defenses.
It certainly points out Riley's influence if Miller Moss (in a bowl game debut) goes viral with the spiral (6 tds..almost 400 yds.passing).
I think there is zero chance the Giants trade up for Williams..but is it possible he drops some? And do the Bears reconsider Fields as their starter... Murray's contract in Arizona..or The Patriots desire? And what about the Ex-Skins (who I think would grab him)?
Stay tuned... :surprise:
Quote from: spiderblue43 on December 28, 2023, 01:11:03 PMIt certainly points out Riley's influence if Miller Moss (in a bowl game debut) goes viral with the spiral (6 tds..almost 400 yds.passing).
I think there is zero chance the Giants trade up for Williams..but is it possible he drops some? And do the Bears reconsider Fields as their starter... Murray's contract in Arizona..or The Patriots desire? And what about the Skins (who I think would grab him)?
Stay tuned... :surprise:
Unlike Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen where all my USC and UCLA fans who did not think their respective QB was any good, my USC fans all absolutely think Williams is the real deal.
Quote from: spiderblue43 on December 28, 2023, 01:11:03 PMIt certainly points out Riley's influence if Miller Moss (in a bowl game debut) goes viral with the spiral (6 tds..almost 400 yds.passing).
I think there is zero chance the Giants trade up for Williams..but is it possible he drops some? And do the Bears reconsider Fields as their starter... Murray's contract in Arizona..or The Patriots desire? And what about the Skins (who I think would grab him)?
Stay tuned... :surprise:
I will take it further than a zero chance that they will trade up for Williams by suggesting that even if they decide to use their top pick on a QB- which I doubt- he won't be their target.
Please don't ask me who I think it might otherwise be as I haven't decided if it's even worth the bother.
Cheers!
Quote from: Painter on December 28, 2023, 02:13:00 PMI will take it further than a zero chance that they will trade up for Williams by suggesting that even if they decide to use their top pick on a QB- which I doubt- he won't be their target.
Please don't ask me who I think it might otherwise be as I haven't decided if it's even worth the bother.
Cheers!
If not Williams, then who??? 😝
Quote from: Painter on December 28, 2023, 02:13:00 PMI will take it further than a zero chance that they will trade up for Williams by suggesting that even if they decide to use their top pick on a QB- which I doubt- he won't be their target.
Please don't ask me who I think it might otherwise be as I haven't decided if it's even worth the bother.
Cheers!
Painter has inside info. He seems to know what Schoen will do five months from now. I wish I had that gift.
Quote from: sooners56 on December 28, 2023, 11:17:23 AMI definitely understand but I think a lot of the body language and crying to momma gets overblown. The talent is there so I'd be interested to know what his teammates have to say about him. If his teammates vouch for him then as a teams GM I wouldn't put too much stock into all that nonsense. However, if his teammates bring it up or mention Williams negatively, then I would be weary of drafting him. Either way, unless the Giants trade up, Williams will be someone else's franchise QB or headache.
okie (lol): I agree with that 100 percent, but so far as I know the scouts don't talk to teammates, although the coaches they talk to might have 2nd-hand knowledge of the views of privately-expressed views of teammates (although I don't think they'll remain effective coaches for very long if it becomes known they told scouts about inside-the-locker-room scuttlebutt. Bob
On pure eye test, I have always liked Williams a lot. I understand there are red flags, but just based on what I see, I am a fan of his talent. He was noticeable to me the first time I watched him as a Sooner. My base case expectation is that he will be very good. No doubt he has material bust risk though (as do most if not all college QB prospects).
Quote from: Painter on December 28, 2023, 02:13:00 PMI will take it further than a zero chance that they will trade up for Williams by suggesting that even if they decide to use their top pick on a QB- which I doubt- he won't be their target.
Please don't ask me who I think it might otherwise be as I haven't decided if it's even worth the bother.
Cheers!
I don't think the Giants would draft him wherever they pick in round 1. Watching that terrible OL all year is more likely the pick than a qb in the draft..plus Jones will be back. I'm not saying never but who knows.
It's simply way too early, so many things to shake out...as I listed.
CJ Stroud is the living embodiment of why you need to do your due diligence on a player before drafting a guy early. Every other quarterback from that program over the past 30 years has been a monumental bust except for him. For the longest time it was you don't draft a quarterback from OSU or Oregon. Since Herbert and Stroud the whole systems make the quarterback thing should have died. You have to look at the big picture. Does he have arm strength, can he make all the throws, does he put the ball where it should be consistently, does he throw with anticipation, can he make off schedule throws, does he have good pocket awareness, is he mobile enough to turn a busted play into a first down, do his teammates respect and follow him, is he smart enough to learn the playbook, does he do the right things during the offseason. None of those things are system dependent. If the answer is yes to all those things you take him regardless of where he played ball.
Take Drake Make for example. Last year his offensive coordinator was Phil Longo who ran an air raid offense. He put up video game numbers. This past year Longo went to Wisconsin and they hired a quy who's offense was a bit different. Statistically Maye's stats took a hit but all the things that made him a top prospect under Longo were still there under the new guy. Is Made less of a quarterback outside of Longo's system, statistically yes but the tools are exactly the same and you draft tools.
Quote from: madbadger on December 28, 2023, 03:56:12 PMCJ Stroud is the living embodiment of why you need to do your due diligence on a player before drafting a guy early. Every other quarterback from that program over the past 30 years has been a monumental bust except for him. For the longest time it was you don't draft a quarterback from OSU or Oregon. Since Herbert and Stroud the whole systems make the quarterback thing should have died. You have to look at the big picture. Does he have arm strength, can he make all the throws, does he put the ball where it should be consistently, does he throw with anticipation, can he make off schedule throws, does he have good pocket awareness, is he mobile enough to turn a busted play into a first down, do his teammates respect and follow him, is he smart enough to learn the playbook, does he do the right things during the offseason. None of those things are system dependent. If the answer is yes to all those things you take him regardless of where he played ball.
Take Drake Make for example. Last year his offensive coordinator was Phil Longo who ran an air raid offense. He put up video game numbers. This past year Longo went to Wisconsin and they hired a quy who's offense was a bit different. Statistically Maye's stats took a hit but all the things that made him a top prospect under Longo were still there under the new guy. Is Made less of a quarterback outside of Longo's system, statistically yes but the tools are exactly the same and you draft tools.
Yeah that was one of my concerns with maye initially because Howell put up the same video numbers as every Qb under Longo.
Quote from: madbadger on December 28, 2023, 03:56:12 PMCJ Stroud is the living embodiment of why you need to do your due diligence on a player before drafting a guy early. Every other quarterback from that program over the past 30 years has been a monumental bust except for him. For the longest time it was you don't draft a quarterback from OSU or Oregon. Since Herbert and Stroud the whole systems make the quarterback thing should have died. You have to look at the big picture. Does he have arm strength, can he make all the throws, does he put the ball where it should be consistently, does he throw with anticipation, can he make off schedule throws, does he have good pocket awareness, is he mobile enough to turn a busted play into a first down, do his teammates respect and follow him, is he smart enough to learn the playbook, does he do the right things during the offseason. None of those things are system dependent. If the answer is yes to all those things you take him regardless of where he played ball.
Take Drake Make for example. Last year his offensive coordinator was Phil Longo who ran an air raid offense. He put up video game numbers. This past year Longo went to Wisconsin and they hired a quy who's offense was a bit different. Statistically Maye's stats took a hit but all the things that made him a top prospect under Longo were still there under the new guy. Is Made less of a quarterback outside of Longo's system, statistically yes but the tools are exactly the same and you draft tools.
Which QBs from OSU were drafted in the 1st round in the last 30 years?
Quote from: uconnjack8 on December 28, 2023, 04:56:11 PMWhich QBs from OSU were drafted in the 1st round in the last 30 years?
Dwayne Haskins.
Quote from: uconnjack8 on December 28, 2023, 04:56:11 PMWhich QBs from OSU were drafted in the 1st round in the last 30 years?
Haskins and Fields. For some reason I also thought Troy Smith went late in the first but he actually fell to the fifth.
Quote from: katkavage on December 28, 2023, 02:49:29 PMPainter has inside info. He seems to know what Schoen will do five months from now. I wish I had that gift.
Not to worry, it might take you a little longer, but eventually your guess will be as meaningless as mine. ;)
Cheers!
Williams concerns me what I saw in a game as brooding when he was plying badly when he needed to be showing leadership.
Read my post on Ryan Leaf. You have to pay attention to personality traits.
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 28, 2023, 09:58:56 AMAs I've said before, he has all the football skills and physical talent to be the next Mahomes. But he has bust written all over him.
I agree Ed. I live in Los Angeles and watch a lot of UCLA and USC games. I think Williams will be a bust. In fact I think Maye will be the first QB off the boards and it would not surprise me that Daniels is the 2nd followed by Williams
Quote from: Philosophers on December 29, 2023, 08:04:21 AMWilliams concerns me what I saw in a game as brooding when he was plying badly when he needed to be showing leadership.
Read my post on Ryan Leaf. You have to pay attention to personality traits.
Like all of you here, I am also not a professional scout so I can't know if "brooding" when your team loses detracts from talent. I do know that I noticed Patrick Mahomes brooding a bit after a few tough losses. I guess I would take him despite his moods when losing.
Quote from: katkavage on December 29, 2023, 11:56:05 AMLike all of you here, I am also not a professional scout so I can't know if "brooding" when your team loses detracts from talent. I do know that I noticed Patrick Mahomes brooding a bit after a few tough losses. I guess I would take him despite his moods when losing.
There might be a difference between hating to lose and wanting to win, and having a breakdown crying fit in mommy's arms in front of millions of viewers. Maybe...maybe not.
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 29, 2023, 12:01:24 PMThere might be a difference between hating to lose and wanting to win, and having a breakdown crying fit in mommy's arms in front of millions of viewers. Maybe...maybe not.
I'll leave that determination to the professionals, scouts and shrinks. Let's all remember some of the silly pre-draft psycho-analysis we've done in the past. Whoever picks Williams I expect will have done all their own analysis and hope they aren't swayed by the ignorant masses, of which I am one.
Quote from: katkavage on December 29, 2023, 12:18:15 PMI'll leave that determination to the professionals, scouts and shrinks. Let's all remember some of the silly pre-draft psycho-analysis we've done in the past. Whoever picks Williams I expect will have done all their own analysis and hope they aren't swayed by the ignorant masses, of which I am one.
Sounds good, then it's ok with you if I and everyone else here express their ignorant opinions.
Quote from: Ed Vette on December 29, 2023, 12:23:21 PMSounds good, then it's ok with you if I and everyone else here express their ignorant opinions.
Of course it is. I do it all the time.
Evidently, former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has been woeful against Top 25 opponents, sitting with a completion percentage of 51.4% and averaging 54% of the passing yardage that he does against unranked opponents.
https://www.si.com/college/usc/football/usc-football-broadcast-reveals-alarming-caleb-williams-statistics-mb2002#:~:text=Evidently%2C%20former%20Heisman%20Trophy%20winner,he%20does%20against%20unranked%20opponents.
Quote from: brownelvis54 on December 29, 2023, 12:59:53 PMEvidently, former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has been woeful against Top 25 opponents, sitting with a completion percentage of 51.4% and averaging 54% of the passing yardage that he does against unranked opponents.
https://www.si.com/college/usc/football/usc-football-broadcast-reveals-alarming-caleb-williams-statistics-mb2002#:~:text=Evidently%2C%20former%20Heisman%20Trophy%20winner,he%20does%20against%20unranked%20opponents.
I brought up some similar information and was told his surrounding cast is well below the level of those opponents. I also have been told by a different person here that there is considerable talent on the offense but not the defense.
I dont follow USC or college football in general enough to know details of their roster. 2 USC games I watched were two of his worst games, and you cannot judge a player that way.