Big Blue Huddle

Red flagsI hope the Giants learned (for drafting their NEXT QB) from the Daniel Jones era:
*Caveat: Opportunity cost is a REAL thing. The lesser the draft investment, the more willing I'd be to overlook some of these.
1. If he's a see it-throw-it QB
And if he is, he better show signs of developing (mentally) past that & fast. Otherwise it's over before it started. A QB can't rely on having to see it open to throw it. He has to anticipate open space. It was abundantly clear DJ couldn't anticipate space in Duke film review, review of his tape 2019-2022 & again after 2022 playoff season. This never changed enough. Frankly, it never changed much at all. A case can be made no QB has ever started 5+ years in the NFL with a worse % of anticipatory throws per attempt. This is conjecture b/c no one has time to watch every All-22 snap of every QB. But you've all seen it with your own eyes, too.
2. If DCs start to roll away from the field side..
Despite 2022 being DJ's best season, midway, Jack Del Rio (WAS DC) tried something disrespectful and bold. He started aggressively rolling DBs away from the field side. We later saw Patrick Graham use a similar plan in 2023 & other DCs use variations vs. DJ. When DJ failed to make them pay with field side chunk passing plays, DCs gained an advantage by being able to defend just 3/4ths of the field.
3. Pre snap authority needs to develop
DJ never did much pre snap at Duke & despite getting six years & multiple coaches, that didn't change much. For a while, the center set the protections. Go back and watch Eli Manning at Ole Miss & he had more presnap authority than that. A QB needs to set the protections & make checks at the LOS w/ his WRs. He needs to see the whole picture.
4. Ball placement tells more than completion %
There is a big difference between completion % & ball placement. There are also different kinds of "dropped" passes & not every drop is 100% on the intended receiver. Sometimes the ball is supposed to be placed on the upfield shoulder to maximize YAC, or behind him to avoid a hit, etc. Their last QB experiment (DJ) consistently missed with ball placement 1-5 yards around the LOS, was slightly improved in the 5-15 yard range (really just on digs/in breakers) & terrible 15+ specifically outside the numbers. Despite this, the completion % was never terrible. They were empty calorie completions.
5. If safeties aren't playing back
You can't expect to do anything if the safeties are playing close to the line of scrimmage. The Giants experienced this far too often in the DJ era. If a DC doesn't respect a QB's processing + arm talent to challenge over the top, your pass game is dead in the water.
6. Everything can't always be to the play side
One thing that irked me so much was how DJ would get everything done in the pass game on the play side. You can count on one hand how many times he threw a backside dig, or rail route in his six years. Then, you can throw on Jameis Winston All-22 in his first CLE start vs. BAL and see a backside dig right away. It shouldn't be a miracle for a QB to make something happen on the back side of a play. He should have processing & awareness & timing in his game.
7. Pass EPA has surpassed turnover margin
New Bears HC Ben Johnson revealed recently that pass EPA is now a greater predictor (by the numbers) than turnover margin on whether a team will win or lose. The Giants need to recognize this. In 2019, DJ had a negative pass EPA (and overall EPA). The Giants viewed that as a good rookie season. It never eclipsed the positive EPA mark until (and only in) 2022, most of which was sparked by his scrambles.


https://x.com/DanSchneierNFL/status/1907440940291408224

Excellent observations, but note... some can't be determined until after the guy is on your roster.

If you want to rely on those that can't be determined before the draft, then (1) the player must have been playing in an offense in college that is quite similar to yours; and (3) you still must consider the overall general talent level of his college opposition.

My point: drafting a QB is probably the most difficult task (off-field) in professional football.

Bob

I love all but ball placement.  On most intermediate and longer throws no QB can consistently throw the ball "exactly to the right spot.  That's a myth.

I truly believe all these "back shoulder" throws are not all intended but instead are bad throws.

It's a little late to start figuring that out, wouldn't we say? But as we all do our best work after the fact, I suppose it's now up to the Indianapolis Colts to do theirs

Cheers!

Quote from: Philosophers on April 02, 2025, 11:31:40 AMI love all but ball placement.  On most intermediate and longer throws no QB can consistently throw the ball "exactly to the right spot.  That's a myth.

I truly believe all these "back shoulder" throws are not all intended but instead are bad throws.

Deeper balls (including the "back shoulder," I differ in that I believe this is intended) are often aided by the receiver making adjustments to the ball in flight.  How often (if you pay attention) do you see a receiver slow down or vere right or left so that he can catch the ball?

Quote from: Philosophers on April 02, 2025, 11:31:40 AMI love all but ball placement.  On most intermediate and longer throws no QB can consistently throw the ball "exactly to the right spot.  That's a myth.

I truly believe all these "back shoulder" throws are not all intended but instead are bad throws.

What you say first, Joseph is no great revelation. But your second notion is not true at all. The "back shoulder throw" is written into playbooks as both plan and as a coverage option.

Cheers!

Quote from: Philosophers on April 02, 2025, 11:31:40 AMI love all but ball placement.  On most intermediate and longer throws no QB can consistently throw the ball "exactly to the right spot.  That's a myth.

I truly believe all these "back shoulder" throws are not all intended but instead are bad throws.

Phil: IMO it's a bridge too far to say "all" regarding back shoulder throws. I'm sure some are, but they actually practice that (assuming the QB is any good). It should also tell you you're way out over your skis because I don't believe any Giants QB has done it in my lifetime. Of course, my memory is far from world class.  Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 02, 2025, 11:51:50 AMPhil: IMO it's a bridge too far to say "all" regarding back shoulder throws. I'm sure some are, but they actually practice that (assuming the QB is any good). It should also tell you you're way out over your skis because I don't believe any Giants QB has done it in my lifetime. Of course, my memory is far from world class.  Bob

Bob - my point was all back shoulder are not intended that way, but rather some are just bad throws.  I agree some are intended just not all.

Same point that every low throw n an intermediate route is intentionally low.  Some are bad throws.  Same with near and far shoulder long throws.

QBs are not that accurate.

If they were, they'd put footballs through tires hanging from a tree on every throw and we know they cant even do that which is simpler since it is stationery.

I dont want to take the original post a different route as Dan's comments are really good and most have not been discussed here before.

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 02, 2025, 11:51:50 AMPhil: IMO it's a bridge too far to say "all" regarding back shoulder throws. I'm sure some are, but they actually practice that (assuming the QB is any good). It should also tell you you're way out over your skis because I don't believe any Giants QB has done it in my lifetime. Of course, my memory is far from world class.  Bob

https://x.com/TheDougRush/status/1490139785058521093

I think this regime is well versed in QB shortcomings.

Using DJ as an example for this seems a little crass, in my opinion.

Quote from: EDjohnst1981 on April 02, 2025, 12:00:20 PMI think this regime is well versed in QB shortcomings.

Using DJ as an example for this seems a little crass, in my opinion.

Ed,

I don't disagree, but I think there is some value in some of the general QB traits being discussed.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 02, 2025, 12:02:32 PMEd,

I don't disagree, but I think there is some value in some of the general QB traits being discussed.

Fair enough, Rich.

I think there's enough QB failures around the league that he could have combined his analysis.

The points are certainly valid, I just felt like it was a cheap shot. 

"Opportunity costs?"

If you use Daniel Jones in the Giants' system from 2019-24 as your use-case scenario, the better term is "risks," and rated medium to high probability with varying consequences (i.e. low to medium to high).

With other quarterbacks in the system, the consequence for each risk may vary, and probability "should" be roughly the same but might differ slightly if a QB has unique skillset which might mitigate probability.

In the end, it's all about risk management.

Peace!

Quote from: kartanoman on April 02, 2025, 12:46:00 PM"Opportunity costs?"

If you use Daniel Jones in the Giants' system from 2019-24 as your use-case scenario, the better term is "risks," and rated medium to high probability with varying consequences (i.e. low to medium to high).

With other quarterbacks in the system, the consequence for each risk may vary, and probability "should" be roughly the same but might differ slightly if a QB has unique skillset which might mitigate probability.

In the end, it's all about risk management.

Peace!

I get where you are coming from.  Just to clarify.  When Dan talks about the opportunity cost, he is referring to who else could be drafted with the pick.  In other words, the opportunity cost of drafting Sanders is passing on other Hunter or Carter.

2. If DCs start to roll away from the field side..

What does he mean by this?