Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Trench on April 06, 2025, 04:16:53 PMI believe it will work. Time will tell and we can revisit

Other countries are taxing us with tariffs much greater than what we tax them

My belief is that it should be proportional. Each country should be handled individually versus using a sledgehammer approach, similar to what they did/are doing to Federal employees.

Quote from: Trench on April 06, 2025, 04:16:53 PMI believe it will work. Time will tell and we can revisit

Other countries are taxing us with tariffs much greater than what we tax them

Millions upon millions of Americans are suffering. They are losing jobs, their businesses, and their retirement savings (and potentially pensions).

What is it about the man who has 6 bankruptcies and many failed business ventures that makes you believe his radical ideas are correct and the vast majority of conservative and liberal economists and business leaders are all wrong?

The CEO of a company that I am invested in heard the following. He knows people in high places so this may be more than hearsay. (English is not my CEO's primary language so his comment is not perfect)

"US has adopted reverse financial engineering as 7.2 trillion dollars worth of instruments are maturing shortly in 2026 and renewal interest rates at current economic conditions is prevailing at 4.8% which for renewal would be extremely expensive - the only way to push this down is by triggering events that make the world table new set of tariffs which in turn pushes economy into recession temporarily...recession pulls down growth and interest rates. The fall in rates is quite essential for the government to renew... once the instruments are renewed and before elections, Government will introduce QE and stimulus packages that will pull and trigger the economy back again."

Quote from: squibber on April 07, 2025, 10:10:01 AMThe CEO of a company that I am invested in heard the following. He knows people in high places so this may be more than hearsay. (English is not my CEO's primary language so his comment is not perfect)

"US has adopted reverse financial engineering as 7.2 trillion dollars worth of instruments are maturing shortly in 2026 and renewal interest rates at current economic conditions is prevailing at 4.8% which for renewal would be extremely expensive - the only way to push this down is by triggering events that make the world table new set of tariffs which in turn pushes economy into recession temporarily...recession pulls down growth and interest rates. The fall in rates is quite essential for the government to renew... once the instruments are renewed and before elections, Government will introduce QE and stimulus packages that will pull and trigger the economy back again."

I have heard this conspiracy theory.  I hope to hell it's not true (I have my doubts), as the level of cruelty behind a move to destroy the economy for over a year and cause massive harm and suffering for the American people is just hard to imagine.

Some interesting notes concerning the stock market

1) 80%+ of the stock market is owned by 10% of the wealthiest people (organizations)
2) Biggest loser so far is Elon Musk whose portfolio has shed 130 billion dollars in a week
3) (this is fascinating) Warren Buffet has accumulated 12.7 billion dollars more in his portfolio in the last week - the man is a genius (either that, or he sold his soul to the devil at an early age) 


The players in the stock market are like Lemmings. When one Lemming looks skittish and jumps because he thought he heard something, another one sees him and doesn't know why he jumped, but he panics, then another, and another like a chain reaction until a group of hundreds, maybe thousands are suddenly running for their lives in a direction they know not where it leads. None of the Lemmings know why they are running or who's even leading the pack (because there is no leader), but they sure know there must be some horrible danger lurking around them - so they run as fast as they can. They keep running until they all go over a cliff and die. Dittos with stockholders - very skittish bunch - at the first sign of panic, they join the massive sell-off. Worse, tens of thousands of buy/sell decisions are made by computers using algorithms to make snap decisions, and they follow suit en masse, causing an even bigger crash

The money lost in the stock market by the wealthy 10% is actually sitting in some other investment (money market or something...assuming they sold and are waiting to buy back at a premium and increase their wealth several fold). Once the trend is back to "buy" status, because everything is a super-bargain...they will follow the Lemming strategy of moving en masse back into the market regardless of any actual idea of why it's happening. The only ones hurt are those who are riding it out and won't live long enough for the rebound...and the big companies and (for the most point) big boy players in the game, are NOT riding it out like us peaons, and moved those assets to the money market

Just my 2 cents. I've lost a ton in my favorite sector, technology stocks...which have taken the biggest beating. I did not sell (and wish I had), so I'm stuck waiting for the Lemming rebound 

Has he finally seen what everyone else has seen, that tariffs aren't the answer.

Tariffs paused for 90 days. The stock market is booming.

Quote from: squibber on April 07, 2025, 10:10:01 AMThe CEO of a company that I am invested in heard the following. He knows people in high places so this may be more than hearsay. (English is not my CEO's primary language so his comment is not perfect)

"US has adopted reverse financial engineering as 7.2 trillion dollars worth of instruments are maturing shortly in 2026 and renewal interest rates at current economic conditions is prevailing at 4.8% which for renewal would be extremely expensive - the only way to push this down is by triggering events that make the world table new set of tariffs which in turn pushes economy into recession temporarily...recession pulls down growth and interest rates. The fall in rates is quite essential for the government to renew... once the instruments are renewed and before elections, Government will introduce QE and stimulus packages that will pull and trigger the economy back again."

100% not true.  Trump has discussed tariffs since the 1980s.  He simply does not understand that for almost every product our labor costs are too high versus overseas and we will not get jobs back when to produce the product will cost 3x or 5x the cost overseas.

Also tariffs dont account for differences in size of economies and per caoita income of differing nations.  If the U.S. and Vietnam trade with each other, a country the size of Vietnam with 100 million people and an average per capita income of $4,180 will never import in as much as the U.S. will import in with a population of 340 million and an average per capita income of $43,380.

Wish every person took classes in economics.  It's plain and simple.

Do countries put up obstacles to protect industries?  Yes but even if they take them down, my two points above will not be reversed.

I have not even included other obstacles like relative currency values.

Quote from: LennG on April 09, 2025, 02:20:58 PMHas he finally seen what everyone else has seen, that tariffs aren't the answer.

Tariffs paused for 90 days. The stock market is booming.

It's funny, I had some mutual funds that were killing me tax-wise (I had them for 20 years and I had tons of unrealized capital gains).  I got a huge tax bill last year because people are moving out of mutual funds and that forced my gains to be realized (making them taxable).

That reduced the total capital gains to a point where I could finally move them without much pain.  I put that move on pause because I knew we had an unstable president.  Moving the funds would put my money in limbo for a few days.  I feared I would sell out of my positions, and while my money was in limbo, Trump would do what we saw today) and then I wouldn't get the benefit of my stocks rebounding.  I need to feel reasonably confident that the market will be enough stability so that I can have my money in limbo for a week without suffering a major loss.  That is easier said than done.

Also, Trump is keeping the massive tariffs on China.

You cannot erase the damage done by what the stock market has done in 3 hours. The volitility will continue.

Quote from: LennG on April 09, 2025, 02:20:58 PMHas he finally seen what everyone else has seen, that tariffs aren't the answer.

Tariffs paused for 90 days. The stock market is booming.

I wonder how many of the President's friends and associates knew the plan and made a killing. Lots of money to be made if you know the timing of the volatility.

Quote from: Ed Vette on April 09, 2025, 09:15:08 PMI wonder how many of the President's friends and associates knew the plan and made a killing. Lots of money to be made if you know the timing of the volatility.

You are hardly the only one wondering.  I think many wise people are wondering the same thing.  The sort of power the President has invites abuse.  That's why this power was always intended for Congress, not one man.

The markets went back to crashing today.  I suspect while the big jump yesterday was the sheer relief that the economy-destroying program was put on hold for 90 days, Trump has a ridiculously high tariff on China, and frankly, I think businesses and investors are just unhappy with the instability.

I illustrated just how difficult the instability is for me and some mutual funds.  Imagine a business trying to operate or deciding on big investments, new projects, etc, with such an unstable economic landscape.

Plus, the United States was looked upon as a bastion of stability and security. That was all destroyed over the past couple of months. I am sure many foreign investors who helped drive our stocks higher are leaving the US markets in search of more stability and security. I'm not sure we can get them back, as trust lost is difficult to regain.

The markets are down big today.  Here is what Barrons is saying:



7 min ago

Stock Selling Accelerates as China Trade War Heats Up
By

Connor Smith

Stock market selling accelerated on Thursday after the White House clarified tariffs on China will total 145%, not 125%.

Though President Donald Trump had said on Wednesday he was bringing tariffs charged to China to 125%, that count did not include a 20% tariff that the Trump administration has tied to the fentanyl emergency.

The Dow was down about 1,640 points, or 4%. The S&P 500 was down 4.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 5.5%.

Though stocks were already falling on Thursday as markets evaluated the state of play for the economy following Trump's 90-day delay on most tariffs, selling picked up after CNBC reported on the higher tariff total.

"The increase in US tariffs on China's imports will deliver meaningful upward pressure to costs unless supply chains can be diverted to other economies, so inflation risks remain elevated, even after yesterday's 90-day reprieve to the rest of the world," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management wrote earlier in the morning.

I'm no expert, but if I had sold two weeks ago, then bought my stock back yesterday after it rose 10% in less than 8 hours, I'd sell and buy it back when it bottoms out again. That 10% gain would then be banked. A lot of people had a field day yesterday, and it surprises me NOT one bit, they sold today to pocket that easy gain. There's always a sell-off by the big boys whenever a stock they own goes wild for a day. Computer algorithms don't miss a single chance to bank easy gains, and the big houses are pretty much all run by algorithms

I know one thing, as a little fish in a big pond, I wish I converted my stock into gold bullion back in January when it was 2600.00 an ounce (right now it's 3180.00)