Big Blue Huddle

I had some interesting information on the Tariff issue.  Apparently, Amazon floated the idea of listing the tariff tax like one lists sales tax.  This greatly angered the President to the point where he called Jeff Bezos and forced him to withdraw the plan.  Why would the president want to hide important facts and information from the American people?  I would be particularly interested in @Trench take on this issue, as someone who feels we should have faith in what Donald Trump is doing with his new major tax program.

To drive home the reality that the economy doesn't care about politics or propaganda:


US economy contracts at 0.3% rate in Q1, first pullback in three years

The US economy contracted for the first time in three years to start 2025, as a surge in imports dragged down GDP and prices increased more than forecast.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed economic growth contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% during the year's first three months, more than the 0.2% decline expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The reading came in significantly lower than the 2.4% rate of growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2024.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-contracts-at-03-rate-in-q1-first-pullback-in-three-years-123544165.html

They need to add that to their first 100 days list of accomplishments.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 30, 2025, 08:28:55 AMI had some interesting information on the Tariff issue.  Apparently, Amazon floated the idea of listing the tariff tax like one lists sales tax.  This greatly angered the President to the point where he called Jeff Bezos and forced him to withdraw the plan.  Why would the president want to hide important facts and information from the American people?  I would be particularly interested in @Trench take on this issue, as someone who feels we should have faith in what Donald Trump is doing with his new major tax program.

I don't think Bezos was forced to do anything. It's a free country. I believe the plan is going to work. I believe in our President, Treasury Secretary and his economic team. I'm just a blue collar guy doing my best. Time will tell if it works or not but I'm optimistic.

Quote from: Trench on April 30, 2025, 09:48:03 PMI don't think Bezos was forced to do anything. It's a free country. I believe the plan is going to work. I believe in our President, Treasury Secretary and his economic team. I'm just a blue collar guy doing my best. Time will tell if it works or not but I'm optimistic.

My grandparents were blue-collar; my mother didn't go to college until I was going to college.  My father was a first-generation college graduate.  I was raised with blue-collar values.  That's why I didn't have an issue volunteering for decades as an EMT and heavy rescue or working as a director of facilities and maintenance.

I was taught the importance of honesty and common sense.  I was taught not to have blind faith in anyone.  I was taught that the truth, directness, and openness were the way to good things.   I was taught to be suspicious of people who lie and hide the truth.  From that value system, Trench, I am puzzled as to how you could be completely okay with the President openly hiding the truth from the American people.  If what the President was doing was good for America and the American people, he would WANT them to know, not hide it.   That's my perspective as someone who learned a lot of his values from his grandmother, who had classic American blue-collar values.

Trump says American kids will have only 2 dolls instead of 30 because of all the price hikes his policies are causing.

He tells Americans they should take comfort in their children's misfortunes because China (and I guess the Chinese people) will suffer more.


I am not sure who would take comfort in this 


https://www.yahoo.com/news/weak-gdp-report-tied-tariffs-155329577.html

From my vantage point, people have developed strong biases and an unwillingness to be objective.

Trump makes crap up and his followers play along.

Biden was clearly losing it mentally and his crew kept denying it.

Where did our moral compass go?

Quote from: Philosophers on May 01, 2025, 03:11:57 PMFrom my vantage point, people have developed strong biases and an unwillingness to be objective.

Trump makes crap up and his followers play along.

Biden was clearly losing it mentally and his crew kept denying it.

Where did our moral compass go?

Let's be careful to not make this about politics.

If Biden, or any democratic president was doing what the current one is doing would you still have patience and trust in them?

Quote from: LennG on May 02, 2025, 04:16:40 PMIf Biden, or any democratic president was doing what the current one is doing would you still have patience and trust in them?

It's getting trickier for people who don't have a great deal of in-depth knowledge of the subject of trade policy and macroeconomics to dish out heavy criticism of the current administration given the extent to which the stock market has stormed back off the lows in the past two weeks or so, not to mention the very healthy-looking April jobs report that came out today.

Needless to say, the above does not mean this economy and markets aren't going to have significant problems in the future that are linked to protectionist trade policies, but it was easier for people to sling the mud three or four weeks ago than it is now.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 01, 2025, 08:32:17 AMMy grandparents were blue-collar; my mother didn't go to college until I was going to college.  My father was a first-generation college graduate.  I was raised with blue-collar values.  That's why I didn't have an issue volunteering for decades as an EMT and heavy rescue or working as a director of facilities and maintenance.

I was taught the importance of honesty and common sense.  I was taught not to have blind faith in anyone.  I was taught that the truth, directness, and openness were the way to good things.   I was taught to be suspicious of people who lie and hide the truth.  From that value system, Trench, I am puzzled as to how you could be completely okay with the President openly hiding the truth from the American people.  If what the President was doing was good for America and the American people, he would WANT them to know, not hide it.   That's my perspective as someone who learned a lot of his values from his grandmother, who had classic American blue-collar values.

I appreciate the post, I too was raised with the same values and have been lucky enough to have a job helping people. I read today China is exempting tariffs on close to 40 billion and also a jobs report was better than expected as the market reacted very well. Whether all of this plays out positively or negatively I don't know but I have faith in the group assembled. Hopefully nobody wants anything bad to happen to anyone and we have seen DOGE uncover a lot of fraud and abuse which I hope Congress will codify into action. I'm happy to see us working towards a reset with China and the world on trade which has been a long time coming

DOGE's claims should not be taken at face value

Per Google AI

While DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) claims to have identified and cut significant amounts of wasteful government spending, including instances of fraud, the exact amount attributable specifically to "actual fraud" remains unclear and contested. 
Here's a breakdown of what's known and some key points to consider:
1. DOGE Claims:

• DOGE claims to have saved taxpayers a substantial amount of money, including through identifying and addressing fraud.
• These savings are reported through various mechanisms, including contract cancellations, renegotiations, asset sales, grant cancellations, and identifying improper payments.
• DOGE's website features a "wall of receipts" showcasing some of these alleged savings. 

2. Contradictions and Inaccuracies:

• Several sources have highlighted significant errors and inaccuracies in DOGE's reported savings, casting doubt on the reliability of their figures.
• Examples include double or triple-counting contracts, misrepresenting contract values, and including contracts that were already expired or canceled.
• Some instances of alleged fraud, like unemployment fraud claims, have been revealed to be previously identified and addressed. 

3. Difficulty in Verifying Fraud:

• While DOGE highlights cases they deem as fraud, verifying these claims independently is challenging.
• Some critics argue DOGE conflates fraud with wasteful spending or differing political priorities.
• A Certified Fraud Examiner noted that a thorough fraud investigation requires detailed analysis and evidence, not just algorithms and speed. 

4. Overall Impact:

• DOGE's efforts have led to some significant cost-cutting measures, but their reported savings may be inflated and lack full transparency.
• The actual amount of savings attributable specifically to uncovered fraud remains unclear due to the challenges in verifying DOGE's claims. 

In Conclusion:
While DOGE's stated goal of combating fraud and waste is commendable, the lack of transparency and the numerous inaccuracies in their reported savings make it difficult to determine the precise amount of "actual fraud" they have uncovered. 

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 02, 2025, 04:34:48 PMIt's getting trickier for people who don't have a great deal of in-depth knowledge of the subject of trade policy and macroeconomics to dish out heavy criticism of the current administration given the extent to which the stock market has stormed back off the lows in the past two weeks or so, not to mention the very healthy-looking April jobs report that came out today.

Needless to say, the above does not mean this economy and markets aren't going to have significant problems in the future that are linked to protectionist trade policies, but it was easier for people to sling the mud three or four weeks ago than it is now.

The market dove after tariffs were announced. It stormed back after the tariffs were paused. The jobs numbers were encouraging, but it is the inflation numbers that will drive the markets in the second quarter. The head of Proctor and Gamble even said their WIFI data collected from washing machines where customers allow it shows families are washing fewer loads of laundry every week, apparently to save money. If true, this would be one of many strategies families are using to pinch pennies where they can, out of fear more than anything else.

A President who thinks I would have bought 30 dolls for my child this Christmas and now may only buy 2 and they will cost more, could not have made a better case on how clueless he is on the economy, trade, and how out of touch he is with the concerns of the American people. The tariffs, even if well intended, are a bad idea if implemented in a such a way. He said his administration has made 200 trade deals. Trade deals take a year or more and for good reason. Any trade deal made in a week or two sounds more like a promise to start discussions than a deal. Not to mention the math of 200 deals with roughly 180 countries who had tariffs levied against them doesn't make sense either.

This 90-day pause gets us from drowning in a whirlpool and steps us into quicksand since many of the original tariffs remain in place. Meanwhile, exemptions for the auto industry and other products coming from overseas should be seen as an admission of poor planning. Now, the requests for exemptions are coming from everywhere on a daily basis. Who gets theirs granted and why? What is the price for admission?

I have to say, these comments by the President are pretty unsettling.  Either he believes what he said, which means we are doomed because good policy comes from understanding situations and grasping reality. The other possibility is that he believes we (or at least enough of us) Americans are not intelligent


https://x.com/Acyn/status/1919030884193411406

He is saying he's only been here like 12 weeks and already we are seeing positive signs on the economy as jobs are up, eggs are down, gas is down, mortgage rates are down. He deserves the opportunity to enact his stated policy and then we can grade him. The media never ever asked such negative questions of Biden and in fact he was given cards of who to ask a question of.