Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Trench on May 05, 2025, 09:19:05 AMHe is saying he's only been here like 12 weeks and already we are seeing positive signs on the economy as jobs are up, eggs are down, gas is down, mortgage rates are down. He deserves the opportunity to enact his stated policy and then we can grade him. The media never ever asked such negative questions of Biden and in fact he was given cards of who to ask a question of.

I think it's critical that we stay informed.   Take egg prices, to the American consumer the price has gone up

QuoteRetail egg prices, or the prices paid by shoppers, have climbed over the early months of Trump's term, meaning household budgets have been slammed by worsening egg costs, the economists said.

By contrast, wholesale egg prices -- the amount grocers pay to suppliers -- have dropped significantly since Trump took office, though Trump appeared to overstate the amount of decline during the ABC News interview.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-egg-prices-falling-experts-claim-misleading/story?id=121312087

Mortgage rates are down more as a result of them peaking when he took office (so essentially an illusion)

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Gas prices are actually higher


https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price


@Trench, this is just my opinion/firmly held belief, but I think it's critical that all Americans stay well informed.  In fairness, it's not just my opinion; the whole well-informed citizen is actually on America's citizenship test.

If we are not informed, bad things can happen, and the public at large can make bad decisions.   We can't allow ourselves to be tricked/fooled by falling for the deceptive attacks on the media.

The President tanked movie and entertainment stocks with his threats to illegally apply tariffs to them


https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025050594/can-president-trump-really-put-tariffs-on-films-produced-abroad-the-law-says-no


This is a good article from an investment source, which makes it very clear that the President doesn't have the legal authority to do what he promised to do

Last administration also did many things they weren't allowed to starting with student loan forgiveness and allowing people to pour into the border. It's what administrations do unfortunately.

As for the movie industry reports from the IATSE union say they have lost 18,000 jobs last admin. This is an attempt to bring jobs back

Quote from: Trench on May 05, 2025, 06:00:57 PMLast administration also did many things they weren't allowed to starting with student loan forgiveness and allowing people to pour into the border. It's what administrations do unfortunately.

As for the movie industry reports from the IATSE union say they have lost 18,000 jobs last admin. This is an attempt to bring jobs back

Trench,

Your first paragraph sounds like what my father (who spends his days watching FOX News) said. It's called whataboutism and it's a dangerous practice that allows one to defend harmful practices that shouldn't be defended.

As to the second paragraph, if you are going to quote the union, you should also talk about that they don't endorse Trump's tariffs and proposed the following:


"The United States needs a balanced federal response to return film and television jobs," said International President Matthew D. Loeb. "IATSE recommended that the Trump administration implement a federal film production tax incentive and other domestic tax provisions to level the playing field for American workers. We await further information on the administration's proposed tariff plan, but we continue to stand firm in our conviction that any eventual trade policy must do no harm to our Canadian members — nor the industry overall. We seek reciprocal trade practices that ensure fair competition for all IATSE members."

Your 1st paragraph is one I won't respond to because it's purely political. You have your feelings and I will have mine. Nothing wrong with that.

Your second paragraph is cherry picking as I can highlight Teamster President Sean O'Brien who also represents the IATSE portion of his industry and Motion Picture Director Lindsey Doherty both praised the move.

Either side of the aisle will have its take on the issue. That's America. I believe the strategy will work. The sky was falling when eggs were high now they're low and nobody talks of it. Gas prices and mortgage rates are lower nobody talks of it. My grocery prices are now lower than before and nobody talks of it. Will tariffs work? I don't know. But I'm willing to give our President a shot same as I was willing to give our last President a shot. It sounds like some trade deals are close. Let's see how the markets react.

Time will tell.

Trench, I cannot agree with much you aid about eggs, oil, and interest rates. The egg prices have been driven entirely by the bird flu and the supply/demand basics of the economy. There are no  decisions by either administration that a have affected them, so I don't know why we are crediting or blaming either, but that is what the country often does. The truth is the price of eggs is up only 25% year to date instead of 40%, which is where the price was 40 days ago after blowing past record highs in February adn setting a new standard in mid March. I'm not sure I would call that lower prices. The price of oil and thereby gasoline is down worldwide. No single country deserves total credit for that. Interest rates have been parked during this administration and have moved neither up or down, much to the President's consternation. Much of the good news that came out this week on inflation and jobs did not include the April numbers. So, we still have to see how the April 2nd tariffs will play out when the next set of data comes out in May. 

As for trade deals, after saying last week that they have made 200 trade deals, the President said yesterday (5/6/25 - parphrasing) that he has made no deals and America doesn't have to make deals. If the other countries want to do business with the US, they need to make deals with us. We don't have to make deals with them. That's a curious position to take on trade and a lot of US business that sell overseas would not agree.

There are deals. There are no deals. It is just political rhetoric that seams to change weekly, or even daily to reframe the position so we do not look as foolish as we did that first week in April. I stand by my earlier statement in this topic that the tariff mess we are currently in could take a year or more to sort out. THat glacier can't be moved in a day, or a week, or even a month. It isn't something that is worth watching day by day.

@Trench

I don't care what Trump's close friend and supporter Sean O'Brien has to say.

What I do care about is tourism collapsing, the housing market collapsing (a house went on sale on my block at the beginning of the year, two price drops and still no interest), the stock market is down, companies are reporting the tariffs are harming them, people are reporting tariffs are harming them, prices overall are up (despite the US economic slump pushing oil prices down), the value of the US dollar is tumbling (making things even more important), the ill-advised mass government layoffs is costing tax payers billions (thanks to the IRS cuts) and creating problems at national parks and airports (thanks to air traffic controller cuts), people are suffering and for what?  Is the whole goal to inflict painful cuts and increase taxes on working Americans so they can cut taxes for the wealthy?  What day did you wake up and think to yourself, "You know, guys like Musk and Bezos are really suffering and need more money, I think the nation has to make painful sacrifices so they can have more money?"


Outside the unqualified people in the current administration, there is literally no one (outside of partisans) who says what the president is doing with his economic policy is good.   All those tariffs and not ONE SINGLE TRADE deal has been done.   So what, other than making the rich richer, is the reason for all our suffering????

Another thing that troubles me greatly about our economy is news stories about Europe poaching our scientists because the current government is anti-science.   

Time will tell. I'm trying to have faith

In time prices will come back down to the way they were when Biden left office and you will praise this administration for doing good.
Maybe even in the next year the stock market will get to the point it was when Biden left office and again you will praise this administration for that.
Seems pretty ridiculous to praise people for getting us back to where we were in the first place.

The stock market has done well in the last three weeks or so for various reasons, but my gut is we've hit or are at least nearing peak optimism here. Trump's polling is a disaster, and the easy stuff is already done. Now he has to figure out how to deal with the deficit (regardless of whether you think DOGE was "good" or "bad", the numbers are drop in the bucket level stuff), the 17 tax cuts need extending, and his campaign goody basket of tax breaks have no hope of getting funding.

Meanwhile the economic warning signs are all flashing in unison, albeit the hard data has not actually turned yet (though it's only a matter of time). Tack on absolutely zero clarity on tariffs and a geopolitical situation that is bubbling in Europe, the Middle East, India, and Taiwan, and I'm just not sure what the bull case is right now. Particularly after a bounce of this magnitude in an already highly uncertain situation.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 07, 2025, 06:03:04 PMThe stock market has done well in the last three weeks or so for various reasons, but my gut is we've hit or are at least nearing peak optimism here. Trump's polling is a disaster, and the easy stuff is already done. Now he has to figure out how to deal with the deficit (regardless of whether you think DOGE was "good" or "bad", the numbers are drop in the bucket level stuff), the 17 tax cuts need extending, and his campaign goody basket of tax breaks have no hope of getting funding.

Meanwhile the economic warning signs are all flashing in unison, albeit the hard data has not actually turned yet (though it's only a matter of time). Tack on absolutely zero clarity on tariffs and a geopolitical situation that is bubbling in Europe, the Middle East, India, and Taiwan, and I'm just not sure what the bull case is right now. Particularly after a bounce of this magnitude in an already highly uncertain situation.

The market has bounced back to a degree, but my mutual funds are still off by 6 or 7 percent for the year.

The administration is crowing about some vague trade deal with the UK.  Details are sparse, but what is clear is that the 10% tariff tax on the goods we buy will remain in place.  I don't know about @Trench, but I don't think a 10% federal sales tax on imported goods is a good thing for me or any other American consumer.  Hell, @Trench seems to support a 10% sales tax on foreign movies.  Why are we paying more so the wealthy can pay less?

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 08, 2025, 03:09:05 PMThe market has bounced back to a degree, but my mutual funds are still off by 6 or 7 percent for the year.

The administration is crowing about some vague trade deal with the UK.  Details are sparse, but what is clear is that the 10% tariff tax on the goods we buy will remain in place.  I don't know about @Trench, but I don't think a 10% federal sales tax on imported goods is a good thing for me or any other American consumer.  Hell, @Trench seems to support a 10% sales tax on foreign movies.  Why are we paying more so the wealthy can pay less?

Both Lutnick and Trump have now said publicly that the lowest any country can get is 10%. According to them, that is their best case scenario at this point.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 08, 2025, 05:17:38 PMBoth Lutnick and Trump have now said publicly that the lowest any country can get is 10%. According to them, that is their best case scenario at this point.

Until we get a Congress that strips him of the power to unilaterally levy taxes on the American people

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 08, 2025, 03:09:05 PMThe market has bounced back to a degree, but my mutual funds are still off by 6 or 7 percent for the year.

The administration is crowing about some vague trade deal with the UK.  Details are sparse, but what is clear is that the 10% tariff tax on the goods we buy will remain in place.  I don't know about @Trench, but I don't think a 10% federal sales tax on imported goods is a good thing for me or any other American consumer.  Hell, @Trench seems to support a 10% sales tax on foreign movies.  Why are we paying more so the wealthy can pay less?

We have brought in record tariffs last month and it will help pay debt so our grandchildren will have a better chance at even having a country. We have been ripped off for years. The trade market is being reset and the market will take time to recover and stabilize. You can believe what you will and I will also. Time will tell. Once we get the tax cuts on one beautiful bill the economy should thrive. Also no tax on tips, social security and Overtime will put $ in people's pockets. Unfortunately the fed refuses to cut interest rates where the last administration they did even when they kept printing money and spending without regard for the future.

Again, time will tell