Big Blue Huddle

QBs face their biggest challenges on 3rd down (and 4th) as teams often know they need to throw.   Success or failure on that down is the difference between punting (or maybe a FG) or continuing down the field, and hopefully scoring a TD.  To get a sense of the upgrade at the QB position, look at DJ's numbers (the best QB last year) and Russell Wilson



https://x.com/Marcus_Mosher/status/1924813502092279885

Here is another example of the upgrade.  This graph covers accuracy for vertical and horizontal targets



https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1924651668664197355

These are good and valuable stats, but I disagree with the title given to the thread.

The real money down is first down.

If you're excellent on first down, you avoid (as much as possible in a competitive game) having to deal with third down and the numerous problems associated with it.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 20, 2025, 09:41:43 AMThese are good and valuable stats, but I disagree with the title given to the thread.

The real money down is first down.

If you're excellent on first down, you avoid (as much as possible in a competitive game) having to deal with third down and the numerous problems associated with it.

Bob

Bob,

I agree with what you said.  That said, the reason I said it was the "money down" is that it's more difficult for QBs to throw on third down than 1st down.  On first down, defenses need to defend with equal vigor against the run and the pass.   On third down, things can be more challenging if the offense is forced into a passing down.

Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
best QBs on 3rd/4th down last year

1. Jared Goff
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Baker Mayfield
6. Tua Tagovailoa
7. Brock Purdy
8. Kirk Cousins
9. Derek Carr
10. Joe Burrow
11. Jayden Daniels
12. Justin Herbert
13. Jameis Winston
14. Bo Nix
15. Jalen Hurts
16. Sam Darnold
17. C.J. Stroud
18. Russell Wilson
19. Geno Smith
20. Kyler Murray
21. Daniel Jones
22. Aaron Rodgers
23. Gardner Minshew
24. Bryce Young
25. Drake Maye
26. Caleb Williams
27. Jordan Love
28. Dak Prescott
29. Cooper Rush
30. Will Levis
31. Matthew Stafford
32. Anthony Richardson
33. Trevor Lawrence

*2024 reg season based on EPA/att
11:28 AM · May 22, 2025
·
28.5K
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https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1925574601569952192

Well, even a little bit of improvement would still be improvement, so...

Maybe Wilson/Winston repeat their relative successes in key situations, and...

Maybe the new guy has a target to shoot at, or above, whenever he gets his opportunity.

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 22, 2025, 12:39:28 PMWell, even a little bit of improvement would still be improvement, so...

Maybe Wilson/Winston repeat their relative successes in key situations, and...

Maybe the new guy has a target to shoot at, or above, whenever he gets his opportunity.

Bob

Thanks Bob, I missed Winston.  That's likely because I didn't think to look up from Wilson 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 22, 2025, 12:41:08 PMThanks Bob, I missed Winston.  That's likely because I didn't think to look up from Wilson 

Rich: Yes, I didn't either (caught it accidentally). Bob

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 20, 2025, 09:09:51 AMQBs face their biggest challenges on 3rd down (and 4th) as teams often know they need to throw.  Success or failure on that down is the difference between punting (or maybe a FG) or continuing down the field, and hopefully scoring a TD.  To get a sense of the upgrade at the QB position, look at DJ's numbers (the best QB last year) and Russell Wilson



https://x.com/Marcus_Mosher/status/1924813502092279885

I think we can agree in terms of challenges faced in such situations but unless we see the past as prologue, such generalities can be bootless given that situations and circumstances are so often unpredictable. That, of course, is why we are here yacking in the hope that we may get tickled more often than head smacked.

Cheers!