Big Blue Huddle

While I have posted the optimistic side of things, some of the negatives. 

For all the talk of vehicles (and I believe there is and will be a shortage), interest rates will make buying and leasing more expensive

selling homes will be slowed down by rising interest rates (even as there is a housing shortage in the US)

rising fuel prices will cut into consumer discretionary spending

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 20, 2022, 02:32:23 PMWhile I have posted the optimistic side of things, some of the negatives. 

For all the talk of vehicles (and I believe there is and will be a shortage), interest rates will make buying and leasing more expensive

selling homes will be slowed down by rising interest rates (even as there is a housing shortage in the US)

rising fuel prices will cut into consumer discretionary spending

Add to that:

The stock market will continue to be run by the bears shedding trillions of dollars more. A couple of weeks ago it had shed 17 trillion since January 1st, so I don't know what it is now, but I know that tech stocks shed a trillion a day for the last three trading days and the S&P alone has shed 9.3 trillion all by it's lonesome - and the S&P is doing quite a bit better than the NASDAQ Composite. The DJ Industrial has fared the best losing only 13%, but has many trillions more invested there than either the S&P or Nasdaq       

Retirement funds have shed 3 trillion thus far 

Hate to even mention it as I will put a curse on it, but my portfolio is up 16% so far this morning. Probably the kiss of death to even admit it 

All of my stocks are up with FLNC, Plug, and FSR leading the way - fingers crossed

@Jolly Blue Giant

The markets are doing well today.  For what it's worth, Barrons is indicating that they don't think this is the bottom.

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 21, 2022, 03:00:26 PM@Jolly Blue Giant

The markets are doing well today.  For what it's worth, Barrons is indicating that they don't think this is the bottom.

I personally don't trust any rally (beyond maybe a week or two) until inflation shows decisive signs of coming back down.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on June 21, 2022, 03:10:17 PMI personally don't trust any rally (beyond maybe a week or two) until inflation shows decisive signs of coming back down.

If by some miracle the Russian war stops, I could see a huge and sudden rally.  Short of that, I tend to agree with you, we need to hear a report saying inflation dropped signficantly

I saw a headline for a Barron's article saying that Bitcoin is undervalued, according to a model.

My thought- "how in the F**K can an imaginary currency be "undervalued"???"  This isn't a company with intrinsic value.  Even gold whose value is nearly entirely speculative has intrinsic value (as a commodity).  Some encrypted data on the web only has the value people make it out to be.

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 22, 2022, 09:13:29 AMI saw a headline for a Barron's article saying that Bitcoin is undervalued, according to a model.

My thought- "how in the F**K can an imaginary currency be "undervalued"???  This isn't a company with intrinsic value.  Even gold whose value is nearly entirely speculative has intrinsic value (as a commodity).  Some encrypted data on the web only has the value people make it out to be.

I fully agree. It must be some sort of technical model and not anything based on fundamentals.

I don't pretend to understand crypto currency...the mining  the digital wallet  the limited number of digital coins 

WTH

Regardless, a lot of very wealthy people invest in it. Saquon Barkley has ALL his endorsement money paid to him in crypto. QB Trevor Lawrence had his entire 22 million signing bonus paid to him in crypto, and the list of star players across the globe have taken some of their salary in crypto

https://twitter.com/DavidFurones_/status/1539290522736545794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1539290522736545794%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-2375900624267878316.ampproject.net%2F2206071918001%2Fframe.html

When it comes to our very own currency though, more than ninety percent is digital (nothing more than a number on a ledger on a computer) and there isn't even paper money to back it up (let alone gold). If every citizen in this country went to the bank to retrieve their savings in cold hard cash, banks and our monetary system would crash because it isn't there in the first place. There is less than 10% of all American dollars in the form of currency. Hard to wrap my head around the whole monetary system let alone crypto 

I sometimes swear the market pundits are bipolar.  After months of shouting about how inflation is killing us.  Barron's (a publication I subscribe to and is well regarded) had this headline


Commodity Prices Are Dropping. Why That's a Trouble Sign.
Wheat, copper, and oil futures are all down. Strategists blame the declines on waning demand, which reflects recession worries.


I'm sorry but in light of all the inflation issues, why is this bad????

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 28, 2022, 10:36:26 AMI sometimes swear the market pundits are bipolar.  After months of shouting about how inflation is killing us.  Barron's (a publication I subscribe to and is well regarded) had this headline


Commodity Prices Are Dropping. Why That's a Trouble Sign.
Wheat, copper, and oil futures are all down. Strategists blame the declines on waning demand, which reflects recession worries.


I'm sorry but in light of all the inflation issues, why is this bad????

Personally, I don't think the falling costs of commodities is a bad thing...unless of course, you own a company producing one of those commodities and you're already running on tight budget...lol

Bottom line, inflation is an economic killer across the board. The nation's economy sheds trillions of dollars in wealth and the further down the pipeline from the wealthiest to the poorest, the pain is worse - and especially hard on the blue collar working class

I gave up trying to figure out how the economic downturn is effecting the market place and just trying to make my own ends meet. I hope there will be an equivalent raise in social security payments to keep up with inflation, but I don't hold my breath. I'll be 70 years old in a few months and might have to go back to work. The good news is (I guess) is that flippin burgers pays 15 an hour and stocking shelves at a retail store pays 18 and above an hour 

On the bright side, my son called a few minutes ago to tell me I am going to get a new granddaughter 

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on June 28, 2022, 10:56:44 AMPersonally, I don't think the falling costs of commodities is a bad thing...unless of course, you own a company producing one of those commodities and you're already running on tight budget...lol

Bottom line, inflation is an economic killer across the board. The nation's economy sheds trillions of dollars in wealth and the further down the pipeline from the wealthiest to the poorest, the pain is worse - and especially hard on the blue collar working class

I gave up trying to figure out how the economic downturn is effecting the market place and just trying to make my own ends meet. I hope there will be an equivalent raise in social security payments to keep up with inflation, but I don't hold my breath. I'll be 70 years old in a few months and might have to go back to work. The good news is (I guess) is that flippin burgers pays 15 an hour and stocking shelves at a retail store pays 18 and above an hour 

On the bright side, my son called a few minutes ago to tell me I am going to get a new granddaughter 

Congrats, Ric on the new granddaughter


Personally, I think the article headline I posted was full of crap.  I mean the feds have been raising rates to cool off the economy and bring inflation under control.  We start to see their efforts pay off, and the article tries to spin that like it's a bad thing.

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 28, 2022, 11:00:23 AMCongrats, Ric on the new granddaughter


Personally, I think the article headline I posted was full of crap.  I mean the feds have been raising rates to cool off the economy and bring inflation under control.  We start to see their efforts pay off, and the article tries to spin that like it's a bad thing.

I like to read a lot of different takes on the economy mainly because of my stocks. I find out that whenever a big publication or a big bank downplays a stock or changes their advice from "buy" to "sell"...it's because they are preparing to buy and want the price to drop first (sadly, it works). As soon as they load up on the stock at the lower price a new article comes out that it is now a "buy" or "strong buy" and the manipulators behind the stories are simply working the masses for their own benefit. That's why it's best to pick healthy stocks and hold long - don't try to second guess everything and play into the games of the super rich...who right now, are trying to recover their own losses. It's an insider's game and many times, the insider doesn't even have a name or a face because it's likely to be a super computer with proven algorithms that play the game for them. It sucks. Although, I usually trust what comes out of Barron's, but take much of the information shared with a grain of salt 

I agree. If the price of commodities is dropping that would suggest the current normalization path by the Fed is having its intended effect. Clearly, it may also signal that we are heading for a recession, but that seems inevitable at this point and almost definitely a necessary consequence of getting inflation back down. The hope of course is that the recession is reasonably mild and not something terrible, but I don't think anyone knows that yet.

The writer of the article should be asked if he would be happier if commodity prices continued to rip higher while the Fed was desperately trying to get inflation under control. I'd be curious what his response would be to that question.

I found this story about the Auditors Earnst and Young truly astonishing


https://www.npr.org/2022/06/28/1108044858/accounting-giant-ernst-young-admits-its-employees-cheated-on-ethics-exams


I mean they are auditors who are charged with catching people who cheat and they had employees cheating on exams.  Worse the exam they were cheating on was an ethics exam of all things.   To make matters worst Earnst and Young failed to report the cheating when it was discovered and tried to obstruct the investigation by federal officials

They were fined a record $100 million for their wrongdoing.    Ernst and Young are lucky they are not a publically traded company or their stock would be tanking and the story would gain more traction.   As it is, I doubt that they will lose many customers even if cheating and an ethics exam seems like building the lily when it comes to wrong doing