Big Blue Huddle

we got a much better than expected jobs report with steady low unemployment and more jobs created than expected (plus an upward revision of the last report).   So what does the market do?   go down 

It's funny as I was getting dressed this morning the guy on my radio was talking about today's job report.  I mused to myself:

"if jobs go up, the market will drop because of fears of more rate hikes"

"if the jobs go down, the market will drop because of fears of a recession"

I am starting to get a hang of things.  Much of the market movement seems to be driven by prevailing fears or optimism rather than cold calculated logic.

Quote from: MightyGiants on July 08, 2022, 09:53:46 AMwe got a much better than expected jobs report with steady low unemployment and more jobs created than expected (plus an upward revision of the last report).   So what does the market do?   go down 

It's funny as I was getting dressed this morning the guy on my radio was talking about today's job report.  I mused to myself:

"if jobs go up, the market will drop because of fears of more rate hikes"

"if the jobs go down, the market will drop because of fears of a recession"

I am starting to get a hang of things.  Much of the market movement seems to be driven by prevailing fears or optimism rather than cold calculated logic.

Big investors are a fickle bunch filled with anxiety and fear. They sell on the slightest hint from any story that means they might lose some money. But in today's case, it might just be profit takers as yesterday the market had a great run and they want to lock in that 12-15% profit they made yesterday

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on July 08, 2022, 10:27:22 AMBig investors are a fickle bunch filled with anxiety and fear. They sell on the slightest hint from any story that means they might lose some money. But in today's case, it might just be profit takers as yesterday the market had a great run and they want to lock in that 12-15% profit they made yesterday

I have seen the reverse as well.  By that, I mean when we are in a strong bull market I have seen investors spin any and all news as good news.   

Quote from: MightyGiants on July 08, 2022, 01:17:17 PMI have seen the reverse as well.  By that, I mean when we are in a strong bull market I have seen investors spin any and all news as good news.   

I totally agree with your analysis. In good markets people look for any excuse to buy, and it usually doesn't take much. And the opposite definitely applies as well. Acknowledging and respecting the underlying trend is a key fundamental aspect of good trading in my opinion.

This morning the market took off like a house fire. I was up over 11% by 10:30 AM and didn't look at it again until after the market closed and I am lucky to be up a half percent. Most people got burned. A snapshot of today's market is ugly. If you're not used to these charts, the bigger the square/rectangle the heavier the volume, red=bad (the redder the worse), gray=held ground, green=good, etc., and it's broken down in sectors. Notice Oil and Gas is all green (which means tomorrow it will be all red probably)

Quite surprised Google tanked since it split today 20-1 

Today's Heat Map looks much better than yesterday 

@Jolly Blue Giant

I like those heat maps, they are very useful 

Here's a link with a live heat map you can pull up anytime you want. I have the url pinned to my task bar

https://finviz.com/map.ashx

I should also mention (seeing that you watch ETFs) that if you go to the page, on the left hand side you can switch it to ETFs or World Stocks, etc. You can also look at the map for 1-day, 30 days, 6 months, etc. It's all controlled on the side bar

I picked up some dividend ETFs today.  There seem to be some indicators we are nearing the bottom of the market.  I figure as I am getting older, dividends are safer investments than going for growth.

Quote from: MightyGiants on July 22, 2022, 01:32:34 PMI picked up some dividend ETFs today.  There seem to be some indicators we are nearing the bottom of the market.  I figure as I am getting older, dividends are safer investments than going for growth.

I think if the July CPI data (due out on Aug 10th) shows bona fide improvement on the inflation front, we can probably begin to feel reasonably confident that we have already seen the lows for the year in stocks.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on July 22, 2022, 01:39:24 PMI think if the July CPI data (due out on Aug 10th) shows bona fide improvement on the inflation front, we can probably begin to feel reasonably confident that we have already seen the lows for the year in stocks.

That would sure be nice. I've had 6 straight days in the green (one of them only .5% even though the market in general was very red, but hey - +.5% is not red). Today is different - lot of red and I'm down...but not so far that it erases the last few days of positive gains. Anyway, I'm sure hoping that things have bottomed out and people on the sidelines with their billions are sticking their toes back in the water so to say. Hoping the market takes off soon 

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on July 22, 2022, 01:51:59 PMThat would sure be nice. I've had 6 straight days in the green (one of them only .5% even though the market in general was very red, but hey - +.5% is not red). Today is different - lot of red and I'm down...but not so far that it erases the last few days of positive gains. Anyway, I'm sure hoping that things have bottomed out and people on the sidelines with their billions are sticking their toes back in the water so to say. Hoping the market takes off soon 

There are obviously still lots of things to worry about, but recession is already in the price and nobody thinks we're not having one. Just how bad it will be is not known, but one is surely coming. What is not priced is a Fed pause. With the growth data clearly looking a lot softer, if we get a pullback in inflation, the Fed will have much less reason to be hiking as quickly and aggressively as it has been, and I think that a dovish repricing of the Fed's rate path would be very bullish for the markets.

Obviously, if CPI somehow comes in at something like terrible 9.3% for July to go along with this big decline in growth, that won't be good at all for markets. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Rough day in the tech sector, consumer goods, and financials. Good day for health, utilities, and real estate

I've mentioned it before, but I am a HUUUGE fan of Plug Power. I have a hundred shares and plan on holding them for the rest of my life

Anyway, yesterday PLUG went up 4.2% during the trading hours. I checked my stocks post-trading hours and the stock had jumped another 12%     

As I check my stocks right now, PLUG is up 21.71% after yesterday's 16+% - I'm still trying to find a news article that explains why this is happening. Regardless...it sure makes me happy

Well, I finally found the answer. From Marketwatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/plug-power-fuel-cell-and-solar-stocks-soar-after-manchin-changes-course-to-back-climate-spending-2022-07-28

"Shares of clean energy companies soared Thursday, after Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin pulled an about-face and agreed to an economic bill that includes climate spending. "Details of the bill are not yet available, but based on commentary from the Senators, we expect spending on clean energy (including hydrogen, nuclear and renewables) as well as fossil fuels," analyst Mark Strouse at J.P. Morgan wrote in a note to clients. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF ICLN, 6.31% shot up 5.3% in premarket trading, while futures ES00, 0.30% for the S&P 500 SPX, 0.37% fell 0.2%.. Within the ETF, shares of Plug Power Inc. PLUG, 24.85% powered up 15.1%, FuelCell Energy Inc. FCEL, 7.37% hiked up 13.0%, SunPower Corp. SPWR, 16.33% surged 14.4%, SunRun Inc. RUN, 25.18% shot up 12.5%, FirstSolar Inc. FSLR, 15.91% ran up 12.8% and Ballard Power Systems Inc. BLDP, 15.04% rallied 6.9%."