Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 24, 2024, 09:14:28 AMI am curious why we would go back to 2010 and Andrew Luck rather than look at the nature of the Michigan offense prior to JJ becoming the starter, especially as the Pac-10 had notoriously poor defenses compared to the Big-10.

Still,  since the point was raised.

Andrew Luck (two seasons under Harbaugh)

288 attempts and 372 attempts

JJ McCarthy (two seasons as a starter under Harbaugh)

332 attempts and 322 attempts

I do not see a glaring difference.

I see issues with McCarthy (as I do all prospects).  That said, some issues I find have questionable value, including the idea that Harbaugh had to scheme around JJ McCarthy.  First off, Harbaugh has made it pretty clear in his statements that he did not scheme around his 5-star QB recruit.  Second, Michigan was a very talented team, especially in terms of being able to run the ball (and run block), and had a great defense.  Most coaches, if given their choice, would prefer to run the ball on offense.  It's safer, it wears down opposing defenses, and it wins the critical time of possession (which helps your defense).  Considering that the team was undefeated and the national championship, I find it hard to believe claims that Harbaugh had no choice "but to scheme around his weak QB" rather than running the ball successfully and using his skilled QB to keep drives going and score when they needed it.'

Oh, and as I suggested (I had already done this).  Michigan didn't suddenly become a run heavy team when McCarthy took over, that was their characteristic well before McCarthy became the starter.

McCarthy played more games than Luck in each of those seasons, but fair enough. I also don't recall Luck being used less in big games like JJ. It was a long time ago, yes, but it was also Harbaugh's last college head coaching assignment, hence why I brought it up. Fair enough that the overall utilization difference is not stark though.

I have said from when I first started posting on this topic that I am not in any way saying McCarthy won't be good. He may well be great or even elite. I obviously don't know for sure, and neither does anyone else here. I think predicting which college QBs will be good pros is one of the hardest predictions to make in sports. As we know, even GMs being paid seven figure salaries and who have far more resources than any fan has get this prediction wrong all the time, so far be it from me to say I know better than anyone else.

If the Giants end up taking McCarthy, I'll be nothing but supportive until I have reason not to be. Lord knows we need to go in a new direction at the position in the worst way. I just don't want them to force the pick due to need. If we end up taking him at 6th, great, but, I hope that will be representative of a high conviction belief that he'll be a franchise QB capable of leading the Giants to Super Bowls. I have no reason to believe it wouldn't be.

This Tweet is quite interesting.  @DaveBrown74 this seems to address your attempts issue

NFL Draft Files
@NFL_DF
JJ McCarthy's passing attempts were so low only because of how DOMINANT he and Michigan were in 2023.

2024 Draft QBs first half passing attempts, excluding screens:
• JJ McCarthy - 199
• Drake Maye - 194
• Jayden Daniels - 184
• Caleb Williams - 167

His attempts tapered in second halves because Michigan had a 21 point+ lead in 11 of their games this season. JJ McCarthy didn't even play in seven 4th quarters (
@BGWhitefield
).

The "they didn't let him throw" narrative needs to be put to rest immediately.

Hate all you want, the numbers with context DO NOT LIE.

https://x.com/BarstoolUofM/status/1761405166077485132?s=20

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 24, 2024, 03:26:19 PMThis Tweet is quite interesting.  @DaveBrown74 this seems to address your attempts issue

NFL Draft Files
@NFL_DF
JJ McCarthy's passing attempts were so low only because of how DOMINANT he and Michigan were in 2023.

2024 Draft QBs first half passing attempts, excluding screens:
• JJ McCarthy - 199
• Drake Maye - 194
• Jayden Daniels - 184
• Caleb Williams - 167

His attempts tapered in second halves because Michigan had a 21 point+ lead in 11 of their games this season. JJ McCarthy didn't even play in seven 4th quarters (
@BGWhitefield
).

The "they didn't let him throw" narrative needs to be put to rest immediately.

Hate all you want, the numbers with context DO NOT LIE.

I'm more focused on the big games he played against top competition, not the season in its totality. That he threw a lot in the first half of the game against someone like Rutgers or Northwestern and then didn't throw much in the second half makes sense. No issues there.

My concern lies more with Harbaugh's lack of use of the passing game in the four toughest games they played all season: Washington, Alabama, PSU, and OSU. Those were their four games against top 10 teams, and McCarthy had 73 attempts in those four games (about 18 per on average). Moreover his passing yardage was pretty low in those four games (average of 117 passing yards per game). So about 6.5 YPA in those games with not many attempts. To me that's the concern here. I don't care as much what he did against the East Carolinas, UNLVs, and Bowling Greens of the world.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 24, 2024, 04:24:45 PMI'm more focused on the big games he played against top competition, not the season in its totality. That he threw a lot in the first half of the game against someone like Rutgers or Northwestern and then didn't throw much in the second half makes sense. No issues there.

My concern lies more with Harbaugh's lack of use of the passing game in the four toughest games they played all season: Washington, Alabama, PSU, and OSU. Those were their four games against top 10 teams, and McCarthy had 73 attempts in those four games (about 18 per on average). Moreover his passing yardage was pretty low in those four games (average of 117 passing yards per game). So about 6.5 YPA in those games with not many attempts. To me that's the concern here. I don't care as much what he did against the East Carolinas, UNLVs, and Bowling Greens of the world.

Good stuff, Dave. And absolutely valid. Not exactly sure why these very logical thoughts are considered "hate" or "need to be put to rest".

Quote from: Stringer Bell on February 24, 2024, 04:44:34 PMGood stuff, Dave. And absolutely valid. Not exactly sure why these very logical thoughts are considered "hate" or "need to be put to rest".

The person on Twitter who made the tweet and provided the stats mentioned put to rest and hate to the larger football community and rich just copied the tweet.

Here is an excellent (and long) scouting report on JJ


https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/2/19/24077295/2024-nfl-draft-quarterback-deep-dive-j-j-mccarthy-michigan-scouting-report-ny-giants

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 24, 2024, 04:24:45 PMI'm more focused on the big games he played against top competition, not the season in its totality. That he threw a lot in the first half of the game against someone like Rutgers or Northwestern and then didn't throw much in the second half makes sense. No issues there.

My concern lies more with Harbaugh's lack of use of the passing game in the four toughest games they played all season: Washington, Alabama, PSU, and OSU. Those were their four games against top 10 teams, and McCarthy had 73 attempts in those four games (about 18 per on average). Moreover his passing yardage was pretty low in those four games (average of 117 passing yards per game). So about 6.5 YPA in those games with not many attempts. To me that's the concern here. I don't care as much what he did against the East Carolinas, UNLVs, and Bowling Greens of the world.

In Michigan's four toughest games here are their rushing stats.

Penn St - 46 rushes for 227 yards
Ohio State - 39 rushes for 156 yards
Alabama - 32 rushes for 130 yards
Washington - 38 rushes for 303 yards

Michigan did not have to throw it 40 times to win those games.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 24, 2024, 04:24:45 PMI'm more focused on the big games he played against top competition, not the season in its totality.

DB: Although I'm generally on Rich's side, the factor you mentioned always weighs heavily in my own consideration and IMO it's a very strong point.

The problem with giving too much weight to it, however, is that in Michigan's big games (Penn St, Ohio St, playoffs) since all those teams had major-league offenses it's possible a first-half conservative game would have been employed regardless of who was playing QB.

The last thing you want to do in a big game in college is fall behind. It's rare for a college QB in a big game to "pull a Mahomes" and almost single-handedly overcome a significant deficit with 2nd-half heroics, especially when the QB is not a running QB. Most of the great college comebacks by a QB this century involved a guy who ran the ball as much as passing the ball in dragging their team across the finish line.

Bob

Quote from: Philosophers on February 25, 2024, 09:27:01 AMIn Michigan's four toughest games here are their rushing stats.

Penn St - 46 rushes for 227 yards
Ohio State - 39 rushes for 156 yards
Alabama - 32 rushes for 130 yards
Washington - 38 rushes for 303 yards

Michigan did not have to throw it 40 times to win those games.

I totally get that. It speaks to how good their running game was and how it was the key to their success against the best teams. What it doesn't necessarily do is support the argument that McCarthy is a great pick at 6th overall.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 25, 2024, 02:04:41 PMI totally get that. It speaks to how good their running game was and how it was the key to their success against the best teams. What it doesn't necessarily do is support the argument that McCarthy is a great pick at 6th overall.

He passed for 221 yards and 3tds in the Alabama game, and I think they were averaging less than that in total yardage entering that game.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on February 25, 2024, 02:04:41 PMI totally get that. It speaks to how good their running game was and how it was the key to their success against the best teams. What it doesn't necessarily do is support the argument that McCarthy is a great pick at 6th overall.

Dave - my suggestion would be to instead of defining greatness by volume, do it based on what he did throw.  Do you like his decisions, his reads, his throws, his choices to run vs pass or vice versa? 

Is J.J. McCarthy a threat to break into the top group of quarterbacks?
This is an open question because, really, McCarthy is just now entering into the draft process. He didn't play in the Senior Bowl like Nix, Penix and Rattler did, and he doesn't have the tape that the top three do as passers. So there's a lot of unknown and plenty of different opinions on whether or not he can break the Williams-Maye-Daniels glass ceiling atop the class.

One long-time exec made a note while he was studying the Michigan star that read, A question I need answered: What makes Maye so much better than McCarthy? Conversely, our AFC exec said McCarthy is "very far off" from the top three. "J.J.'s not getting in the top three. No way."

Meanwhile, Nagy grouped him with Nix, a quarterback who a lot of people think is going to gather momentum once teams get a chance to get to know him after a so-so Senior Bowl week.

"I think both those guys have a chance to be top-15 picks," Nagy says. "There's something to Bo. When you do sit with Bo, and I've had the chance to do this, his intensity comes through pretty quickly. He is a football guy through and through. A lot's been made of his dad playing at Auburn, his dad being a very successful high school coach. There's an intensity about him, a competitiveness about him that I really think is going to win teams over."

"McCarthy is the only quarterback we haven't talked about who has a first-round grade," wrote Muench. "Michigan's run-heavy offense and FBS-best scoring defense meant he didn't have to shoulder nearly as much as the other quarterbacks on the list but the traits are there. He's tough, he's accurate, he can make plays under duress, he can make off-platform throws, he extends plays and he's a threat as a runner. "

One interesting element here will be how McCarthy is seen after he gets, well, seen. One veteran exec told me in the fall that he was taken aback by how narrow and lanky the Wolverines quarterback was, calling him a "stretched-out Bryce Young." So how tall McCarthy comes in at and how much he weighs will be a factor, as will NFL teams eyeing him up trying to figure out how much bigger he can get. (He, by the way, just turned 21 in January.)

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/02/26/draft-preview-combine-cheat-sheet-questions

How many times have we heard this...qbs moving way..way up in the draft. JJ has that buzz. As Frank Romano said ..Holy Crap". See JJ...with the 8th pick? Yipes.

Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.  No consensus in anyone.  Someone is always doubting someone else.