Big Blue Huddle

I heard the one on McCarthy as well (via podcast), and I will post it on YouTube as soon as it's up.  Here is the first one

He might just be the best total QB in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first off the board taken.

I take everything Matt Simms says about quarterbacks with a grain of salt. He was head over heels in love with Kellen Mond. Called him the steal of the draft and a guy who was going to be in the league a long time. He didn't even make it to the end of his rookie season before being cut because he sucked so bad.

Quote from: madbadger on February 29, 2024, 01:28:15 PMI take everything Matt Simms says about quarterbacks with a grain of salt. He was head over heels in love with Kellen Mond. Called him the steal of the draft and a guy who was going to be in the league a long time. He didn't even make it to the end of his rookie season before being cut because he sucked so bad.

That's Chris Simms, not Matt Simms

Quote from: madbadger on February 29, 2024, 01:28:15 PMI take everything Matt Simms says about quarterbacks with a grain of salt. He was head over heels in love with Kellen Mond. Called him the steal of the draft and a guy who was going to be in the league a long time. He didn't even make it to the end of his rookie season before being cut because he sucked so bad.

On a bigger picture note, I fail to see the point in demonizing or praising a person based off of one player they scouted.  The reality is the best NFL GMs and Scouts are far from perfect.  If they are batting 500, they are considered great. 


Here is Chris Simms's work over the years.  Just like GMs (and everyone else) he got some QBs right and others wrong.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-YLY_WAVWSDm4W0PpFIQEvZ1QoFYOprLjo8rG_UWzQo/edit#gid=1462134302


HOF GM Bill Polian

"The historical data is clear, 68 percent of first-round quarterbacks between 2009 and 2016 failed."

It's fair to say if someone is hitting on QB scouting at better than .500 they are a genius. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 29, 2024, 01:40:30 PMOn a bigger picture note, I fail to see the point in demonizing or praising a person based off of one player they scouted.  The reality is the best NFL GMs and Scouts are far from perfect.  If they are batting 500, they are considered great. 


Here is Chris Simms's work over the years.  Just like GMs (and everyone else) he got some QBs right and others wrong.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-YLY_WAVWSDm4W0PpFIQEvZ1QoFYOprLjo8rG_UWzQo/edit#gid=1462134302


HOF GM Bill Polian

"The historical data is clear, 68 percent of first-round quarterbacks between 2009 and 2016 failed."

It's fair to say if someone is hitting on QB scouting at better than .500 they are a genius. 

Who is demonizing anyone here? You're better than to use careless language like that Rich.

Saying that you take someone's position with a grain of salt is not saying that person is stupid, worthless or irrelevant. It's just acknowledging that the person in question has said or done something in the past that gives you pause. In this case he was very adamant about Mond being potentially the best quarterback in the draft when in reality he was so spectacularly bad that even as a third round pick he only made it a month into his rookie year before the Vikings said we've seen enough. My reluctance isn't due to him being wrong, we all get things wrong. It has everything to do with being spectacularly wrong on a subject that you're supposed to be a subject matter expert. It's not like drugs, gambling or women caused his downfall, it was because he was hot garbage at being a quarterback.

Does that make him wrong on all other quarterbacks? Nope. Never said it did. Does it give me pause when he offers an opinion on the same subject going forward? Absolutely. Are you obligated to share my opinion? Nope.

Quote from: Ed Vette on February 29, 2024, 09:13:39 AMHe might just be the best total QB in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first off the board taken.

I agree ED.....I think Williams is going to be a bust, I am getting a bad feeling about Maye as well. Daniels would be my #1 QB if I were to choose.

If 69% of the 1st round QB's fail, why would you want to trade away the farm to move up and pick one.  Doesn't that compound your mistake?

Quote from: jimc on February 29, 2024, 04:32:04 PMIf 69% of the 1st round QB's fail, why would you want to trade away the farm to move up and pick one.  Doesn't that compound your mistake?

Exactly

Quote from: jimc on February 29, 2024, 04:32:04 PMIf 69% of the 1st round QB's fail, why would you want to trade away the farm to move up and pick one.  Doesn't that compound your mistake?

between 2009 and 2016 there were horrible classes.

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 29, 2024, 01:40:30 PMOn a bigger picture note, I fail to see the point in demonizing or praising a person based off of one player they scouted.  The reality is the best NFL GMs and Scouts are far from perfect.  If they are batting 500, they are considered great. 


Here is Chris Simms's work over the years.  Just like GMs (and everyone else) he got some QBs right and others wrong.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-YLY_WAVWSDm4W0PpFIQEvZ1QoFYOprLjo8rG_UWzQo/edit#gid=1462134302


HOF GM Bill Polian

"The historical data is clear, 68 percent of first-round quarterbacks between 2009 and 2016 failed."

It's fair to say if someone is hitting on QB scouting at better than .500 they are a genius. 

Based on my own calculation and a generous rating of 1st Round QBs "success" during the most recent decade (2014-2023)-including some favorable projection- I found a success rate of just 44.4 percent and so also <.500.

While we are finally beginning to fully appreciate just how uncertain is the future success of QBs chosen in the 1st Round, there is a distinction to be made between the benefit/liability burden for GMs and Scouts versus that of a too often publicly whooping and bashing attention seeker who's more interested in bragging after than flagging before. So, whether or not there is much difference in accuracy, there certainly is in terms of impact and consequence.

Cheers!

Quote from: jimc on February 29, 2024, 04:32:04 PMIf 69% of the 1st round QB's fail, why would you want to trade away the farm to move up and pick one.  Doesn't that compound your mistake?

Are you happy the Giants traded for Eli Manning?   

Quote from: kingm56 on February 29, 2024, 05:14:34 PMAre you happy the Giants traded for Eli Manning?   

That's hard to say.  We don't know how the team would have done with Big Ben or Rivers and extra draft capital

Quote from: kingm56 on February 29, 2024, 05:14:34 PMAre you happy the Giants traded for Eli Manning?   

Happy, yes. But they traded players not Draft picks only when it became clear that Archie Manning was insisting upon it. Had it not happened that way, the Giants would have taken the equally-some might say more- successful Ben Rothlisberger at 4 and for a lot lower cost. C'est la vie, say the old folks. You just never can tell.

Cheers!