Big Blue Huddle

Giants free-agent predictions: Player-by-player look at who stays and who goes


Last year, New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen kept the team's biggest free agents from reaching the market with an extension for quarterback Daniel Jones and a franchise tag for running back Saquon Barkley. Schoen hasn't made a preemptive move to retain any players yet this year, so there's more uncertainty entering the free agency madness that begins Monday afternoon.

The Giants have 30 players set to hit free agency. Here are predictions for those players' fates with market projections from NFL executives, agents, an agency salary cap specialist and Eric Eager, who is the vice president of sports analytics site SumerSports:


QB Tyrod Taylor: Going

It would make a lot of sense to re-sign Taylor since he performed well while filling in for Jones last season. But Taylor missed four games with broken ribs and then didn't immediately reclaim the starting job from undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito. That experience may sour Taylor on returning to the Giants.

Despite his strong play in the final two games of the season, Taylor isn't expected to have a robust market due to his age (34) and lack of upside. An agent and the cap specialist projected a one-year deal with a base salary of $3 million plus significant incentives based on playing time. That type of deal would fit the Giants' budget. Eager projected a $7 million salary, since that's the market for top backup quarterbacks.

There are arguments to be made on both sides with Taylor, but he may prefer a fresh start after a tumultuous season.



QB Jacob Eason: Going

Eason is an exclusive rights free agent (ERFA), which means the Giants can re-sign him to a minimum one-year contract with no guaranteed money. Tendering ERFAs is typically a no-brainer due to the absence of any risk/commitment, but it doesn't appear re-signing Eason is in the Giants' plans.


RB Saquon Barkley: Going

Barkley is finally going to get his wish to test the market after the Giants elected not to franchise tag him for a second straight year. That doesn't mean the door is closed on a return, as he'll likely give the team that drafted him with the No. 2 pick in 2018 the chance to match his best offer on the market.

It will be fascinating to see how Barkley's market develops among a crowd of accomplished running backs. Projections for Barkley's value ranged from $8 million to $13 million per year.

Where Barkley falls in that wide range will be determined by how the market develops. Teams may not rush to spend on running backs as soon as free agency opens. Whoever signs the first major deal will likely set the market for the rest of the class.

It's possible the Giants could move on while Barkley is shopping for an offer. If Barkley can secure an offer worth $11 million per year, which was reportedly the Giants' final offer last July, it wouldn't be surprising if New York declines to match and spends money elsewhere.


RB Matt Breida: Going

Breida followed Schoen and coach Brian Daboll from Buffalo and has been a reliable backup on cheap deals the past two seasons. Re-signing him to another deal close to the minimum makes sense to maintain some continuity if Barkley leaves.

But the Giants have Eric Gray and Gary Brightwell as cheap, young depth. If they need to replace Barkley, they'll likely spend on a cheaper vet (or two), which could make Breida expendable.


WR Isaiah Hodgins: Staying

Hodgins is in an interesting spot as a restricted free agent (RFA). It would cost $3 million to retain Hodgins on a one-year RFA tender with no guaranteed money.

That may be viewed as a bit rich for Hodgins after he tallied just 21 catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns last season. But the 25-year-old was productive late in the 2022 season and provides quality depth.

The Giants have until Wednesday to decide if they'll tender Hodgins. It's possible the sides could agree to a deal in the same range as the RFA tender amount.


WR Gunner Olszewski: Staying

The Giants and Olszewski enjoyed a mutually beneficial pairing midway through last season. The Giants were desperate for an upgrade at returner, while Olszewski was looking for another chance after getting cut by the Steelers. He averaged 11.7 yards per punt return in 2023, which ranked sixth in the league.

Returner has been a weakness for the Giants for years, so they should make re-signing Olszewski a priority, especially since he won't be expensive. He signed a two-year, $4.2 million contract with the Steelers in 2022. A similar deal seems reasonable to stick with the Giants.


WR Parris Campbell: Going

The Giants took a swing on Campbell with a one-year, $4.7 million contract last year. The swing missed, as Campbell made just 20 catches for 104 yards and was a healthy scratch for the final five games of the season. Neither side will be interested in continuing this relationship.
WR Sterling Shepard: Going

The Giants gave Shepard a deserved send-off in the finale as he wrapped up his eighth season with the team. The farewell was slightly awkward because Shepard hadn't announced his retirement. It's highly unlikely Shepard will continue playing anywhere, but the Giants are clearly moving on.


TE Lawrence Cager: Going

Cager flashed potential in limited action in 2022, but he barely saw the field last season despite top tight end Darren Waller missing five games. It would cost the Giants $3 million to retain Cager with the restricted free agent tender, which is too rich for his modest role. The Giants need to invest in a No. 3 tight end with better blocking ability than Cager.


OL Ben Bredeson: Staying

Bredeson is a tricky player to forecast. He started 16 games last season at all three interior offensive line positions. The Giants will likely seek an upgrade, but Bredeson has value as a versatile backup who can be an adequate starter.

Bredeson's market depends on whether he's viewed as a starter or a backup. As a backup, he'll likely earn in the $2 million to $4 million range, which would be a worthwhile investment for the Giants. But if teams view him as a starter, he could earn $5 million to $6 million, and the Giants likely wouldn't extend that high to keep him.


OL Tyre Phillips: Staying

The torn quad tendon Phillips suffered in Week 17 robbed him of a potential solid payday after making nine starts at right tackle last season. It's unlikely anything will develop soon for Phillips, as he still has a long way to go in the rehab process.

Phillips recently got a positive update from Giants team doctor Scott Rodeo, who performed the surgery in January. There's hope Phillips could be ready for the start of training camp, but any interest from teams will likely be delayed until he's cleared to play. It makes sense for both sides for Phillips to re-sign a one-year minimum deal with the Giants to try to rebuild his value in a familiar setting.


OL Justin Pugh: Going

Pugh is another player whose market will likely take time to develop, so the Giants may circle back again later in the process. But as much as Pugh added value as a stabilizing force last season in his second stint with the Giants, it seems likely they'll head in a different direction as they reshape their offensive line.


OL Matt Peart: Going

Peart never delivered on the glimpses of promise he showed early in his career. The 2020 third-round pick made just seven starts in four seasons, with injuries hindering him the past two seasons. Peart has the tools to be a viable swing tackle, but he'll probably benefit from a fresh start elsewhere.


OL Shane Lemieux: Going

Lemieux is the poster boy for the Giants' unfathomable run of injury misfortune. Lemieux started every game in four years at Oregon before being picked by the Giants in the fifth round of the 2020 draft. He appeared in just six games over the past three seasons due to major toe, knee and biceps injuries. If he's going to revive his career, it will likely be elsewhere.


OL Sean Harlow: Going

Harlow managed to stick on the roster for the final 11 weeks of last season as a backup, but he's another player likely to be swept up in the offensive line overhaul.


OL JC Hassenauer: Going

Hassenauer was signed last spring to a minimum contract to add a center to the roster with NFL experience. But he tore his triceps in the first week of training camp and missed the season. He'll likely be another casualty of the revamped offensive line.


OL Wyatt Davis: Going

The Giants waived Davis before the start of last season, but he then reverted to injured reserve for the entire season. There's no chance the Giants will extend the $3 million RFA tender to Davis, who has played just 29 snaps since being a third-round pick by the Vikings in 2021.


DL A'Shawn Robinson: Going

Robinson signed a one-year, $5 million prove-it deal with the Giants last offseason. The 28-year-old then proved he remains a stout run defender who adds nothing as a pass rusher.

Every source surveyed projected a similar contract for Robinson again this offseason. That could make sense for the Giants, but they may pivot to a defensive lineman with more pass-rush upside.


OLB Jihad Ward: Going

Ward was assured a roster spot as long as Wink Martindale remained the Giants' defensive coordinator. Well, Martindale is no longer the Giants' defensive coordinator after a messy divorce. So it makes sense for the Giants to cut ties with one of Martindale's most loyal players.


OLB Benton Whitley: Staying

Again, it's customary for teams to retain their ERFAs. The Giants signed Whitley off the Vikings' practice squad in Week 12, so they clearly saw something they liked in the 25-year-old.


ILB Isaiah Simmons: Going

Simmons' market was challenging to pin down. He's a former top-10 pick with exceptional athleticism, but he's never translated his physical gifts into being an impact player.

Simmons found a niche as an inside linebacker on passing downs in Martindale's defense, but that role may not exist in new coordinator Shane Bowen's system. Projections for Simmons' salary ranged from the league minimum to $5 million, with all parties predicting a one-year prove-it deal that includes incentives for playing time.

It's hard to see the Giants investing much in Simmons after acquiring him before cut day last year for a seventh-round pick.


ILB Carter Coughlin: Going

The coaching staff turnover tends to have the greatest impact on fringe players. Coughlin was a core special teamer for four seasons under special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey. But McGaughey was fired after the season, so new coordinator Michael Ghobrial will likely be looking to find his own core pieces.


ILB Cam Brown: Going

Brown and Coughlin have been linked since the moment they were late-round picks in the 2020 draft. That synergy figures to continue this offseason, as Brown is another core special teamer who will likely depart after McGaughey's firing.


ILB Jarrad Davis: Going

Davis was the starting inside linebacker alongside Bobby Okereke last spring before a knee injury ended his season. Perhaps the Giants could bring back Davis for depth on a minimum contract, but they'll likely move on from the 29-year-old coming off a major injury.


CB Adoree' Jackson: Going

There was an agreement among league sources that Jackson is in store for a one-year contract ranging between $5.5 million and $7 million, with possible incentives to increase the value. That price would make sense for the Giants, but they will probably look to move on from the 28-year-old, who just completed a three-year, $39 million contract. Jackson missed multiple games in each season in New York and his spotty tackling won't fit what Bowen's defense demands from cornerbacks.


CB Nick McCloud: Staying

McCloud is in a similar spot as Hodgins, as a restricted free agent whose value is in the $3 million tender range. Whether the Giants tender McCloud or work out a separate deal in that price range, it would make sense to retain a versatile 25-year-old defensive back who excels on special teams.


CB Darnay Holmes: Going

Holmes' trajectory went in the wrong direction under this regime. The 2020 fourth-round pick went from being the team's top slot cornerback to barely playing defense last season after taking a pay cut to remain on the roster. Holmes was a good soldier and performed well on special teams, but both sides will surely be looking to move on.


S Xavier McKinney: Going

McKinney's market will be fascinating to monitor. When Tampa Bay's Antoine Winfield and New England's Kyle Dugger were tagged Tuesday, McKinney appeared to be positioned for a major payday as the top young safety available.

But the market has been flooded by quality veteran cap cuts, which will give teams cheap options at safety. Still, some team figures to spend on an ascending 24-year-old who played every defensive snap last season.

Why are so many NFL safeties being cut? Will their market vanish like it did for RBs?

It remains to be seen if that team will be the Giants, who surely have a cap on how much they're willing to spend on McKinney. An executive projected McKinney's value in the $8 million to $10 million range, while others were much higher on him. An agent projected a deal worth $12 million to $13 million annually, with a possibility of reaching $14 million to $15 million. The cap specialist saw $14 million per year as McKinney's ceiling. Eager was more bullish on McKinney's market, projecting a salary worth $16 million to $18 million in a long-term deal.

Like with running back, it may depend on who signs first at safety. If McKinney doesn't get a big offer early in free agency, one may never come. The Giants want to keep McKinney, but a deal would likely be done by now if they were willing to pay him at the top of his market projection. The bet here is McKinney will find a team that extends beyond the Giants' comfort zone.


K Randy Bullock: Going

Bullock was an effective fill-in when Graham Gano was sidelined with a knee injury last season. But there's no place for Bullock with Gano set to return.


LS Casey Kreiter: Staying

Kreiter has signed eight straight one-year contracts, including the last four with the Giants. At some point the Giants will need to find a new long snapper, but the 33-year-old Kreiter is still getting the job done.

I would agree with most all of this.

Quote from: Ed Vette on March 10, 2024, 09:17:41 AMI would agree with most all of this.

Me too. The one that surprised me a little was McCloud. He's only 25, he played pretty well last year, and if we're going to let Adoree walk why would we let him go too?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on March 10, 2024, 10:57:09 AMMe too. The one that surprised me a little was McCloud. He's only 25, he played pretty well last year, and if we're going to let Adoree walk why would we let him go too?

The prediction was he's staying. He's a Swiss Army knife, Jack of all Trades and Master of none.

Quote from: Ed Vette on March 10, 2024, 11:00:40 AMThe prediction was he's staying. He's a Swiss Army knife, Jack of all Trades and Master of none.

Oops - my bad. Thanks for correcting. Need another cup of coffee.

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on March 10, 2024, 11:01:27 AMOops - my bad. Thanks for correcting. Need another cup of coffee.

It's really an hour earlier.

The one I hope they are wrong on is Simmons.  I suspect the new DC will have something to say about this, one way or the other.

Tyrod I wish I could trust to stay healthy, but he's made of glass. The others? Cant disagree with them much, although I was hoping Simmons could fit in.

 

Quote from: AZGiantFan on March 10, 2024, 02:05:59 PMThe one I hope they are wrong on is Simmons.  I suspect the new DC will have something to say about this, one way or the other.

I have mixed thoughts about him. I think if they use him in coverage as a Will and in blitz packages, he can work. I still have no idea how this Defense will be implemented. I think they may go 43 base.

I agree with most of this too, but I would like to see Jihad Ward and Isaiah Simmons stay

They've reached a deal with Krieter