Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 02:33:18 PMSo we were the 30th last year? Maybe I'm not remembering right, but I had thought the claim made by some here was that the line began to suddenly play much better once Jones went down, allowing the journeyman backup and undrafted rookie third string QB to perform better than Jones did.

If it was indeed the case that Tyrod and DeVito enjoyed better O line play than Jones, how did the line still ultimately only finish 3rd from the bottom of the league?

they got thomas back and got some continuity, same guys playing week in week out. did jones have a two games with the same line at any point last year?

Quote from: Philosophers on April 21, 2024, 10:17:02 PMNope.  No QB will get the Giants into playoffs without help in other positions.  A great QB may win a couple more games but I think that's it.

there is help though, we used all this offseason to fortify the oline and Wandale, Slayton, and Hyatt are good pieces including Bellinger that have been used improperly.

I think Half that list if not more immediately make us a playoff team

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 03:48:15 AMI forgot to add the chiefs 2023 offensive line ranking which was 5th.

So for the past four years Mahomes has played behind a top ten offensive line, sometimes top five.

Combined with having possibly the best offensive coach in the league Andy Reid.

Nice combination, just wanted to share

Like you, I think Andy Reid is an exceptional coach; however, I firmly believe fans assign too much credit to coaches for players' successes, especially QBs.

Reid's record when paired with High-First Round/Pro Bowl QBs: 265-126-1
Reid's record when paired with aging (e.g. Vick) vets and/or none-high 1st round picks(e.g. Scott Peterson, Nick Foles, and Detmer) 18-34

Another great coach, Bill Belichick has a similar record:

Belichick's record with Tom Brady :    249 – 75
Belichick's record without Brady:    84 -  103

Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB.  Andy Reid absolutely gets some credit; however, I reject the notion that Mahomes' success is predicated on Reid; as history clearly indicates, successful QBs remain so, even after their HCs and/or OCs move on.  However, HC/OC are rarely (really never) successful without their Top-Tier QBs.  Just ask our OC and HC how life is without Allen; yet, the latter seems to be just fine without either. This notion extends to Andy Reid.  Just looking at his record, you can easily spot the years without a quality QB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ReidAn0.htm

Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 08:09:53 AMthere is help though, we used all this offseason to fortify the oline and Wandale, Slayton, and Hyatt are good pieces including Bellinger that have been used improperly.

I think Half that list if not more immediately make us a playoff team

The Giants made the playoff in 2022 with DJ as their QB with similar talent (maybe less?) to this season.  Yet, we don't believe the greatest QB to lace-them-up is capable of the same outcome? Today, 44% of all NFL teams make the playoffs; getting arguably the best QB ever puts you in that percentile. 

Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 08:17:34 AMThe Giants made the playoff in 2022 with DJ as their QB with similar talent (maybe less?) to this season.  Yet, we don't believe the greatest QB to lace-them-up is capable of the same outcome? Today, 44% of all NFL teams make the playoffs; getting arguably the best QB ever puts you in that percentile. 

Matt - the reason I question that is because the 2023 team was much worse across the board than the 2022 team and that another QB would be starting with the 2023 team.

Quote from: Philosophers on April 22, 2024, 10:37:20 AMMatt - the reason I question that is because the 2023 team was much worse across the board than the 2022 team and that another QB would be starting with the 2023 team.

Joe, I get your perspective, my friend.  However, I actually like our talent a little better than 2022; I think defensively we've made some gains.  I do get your trepidation though, Joe.  With a few lucky breaks/draft picks, we could become the 2023 version of Houston

Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 08:11:00 AMLike you, I think Andy Reid is an exceptional coach; however, I firmly believe fans assign too much credit to coaches for players' successes, especially QBs.

Reid's record when paired with High-First Round/Pro Bowl QBs: 265-126-1
Reid's record when paired with aging (e.g. Vick) vets and/or none-high 1st round picks(e.g. Scott Peterson, Nick Foles, and Detmer) 18-34

Another great coach, Bill Belichick has a similar record:

Belichick's record with Tom Brady :    249 – 75
Belichick's record without Brady:    84 -  103

Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB.  Andy Reid absolutely gets some credit; however, I reject the notion that Mahomes' success is predicated on Reid; as history clearly indicates, successful QBs remain so, even after their HCs and/or OCs move on.  However, HC/OC are rarely (really never) successful without their Top-Tier QBs.  Just ask our OC and HC how life is without Allen; yet, the latter seems to be just fine without either. This notion extends to Andy Reid.  Just looking at his record, you can easily spot the years without a quality QB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ReidAn0.htm

King,

I appreciate your time spent at researching a subject, and your attempts here to promote the conclusion that you have come to. However, there were a number of statements that you made, that were pretty bold, and technically not sound.

I have highlighted several of them up above.

The one that I would like to specifically address is this one that you said "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

King, we have to be careful in making absolute statements, because that can lead a person or a group of people to come to a faulty line of reasoning.

How so?

Let me elucidate.

A coach who would challenge your statement is none other than Jim Harbaugh.

The QB who's metrics would factually show you have come to an incorrect conclusion is none other than Alex Smith.

I have the following stats and facts to show that.

Alex Smith was the #1 pick in 2005, and from 2005-2010 Smith's head coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary respectively.

He was technically considered a bust, but guess what happened a few years later?

Jim Harbaugh was hired as the 49ers head coach, and guess what happened to Alex Smith's stats? They improved and the 49ers made the NFC Championship game!

Here are Alex Smith's stats in 2011.

61% 3144 Yards 17 TD 5 Int 90.7 RTG

His completion percentage, yardage, TD to Int ratio, RTG and QBR all improved under the tutelage of Harbaugh.

So King, by these statistics and facts, the coach and system were more important to the QB, than the QB was to the system.

Alex Smith never thrived under Nolan and Singletary, but he blossomed under Harbaugh.

It gets even better, because Alex Smith thrives even more a few years later under the tutelage of guess who? None other than Andy Reid.

You can look up the stats yourself as I have presented them down below.

Please be well and we will talk later

Alex Smith

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 08:14:01 PMKing,

I appreciate your time spent at researching a subject, and your attempts here to promote the conclusion that you have come to. However, there were a number of statements that you made, that were pretty bold, and technically not sound.

I have highlighted several of them up above.

The one that I would like to specifically address is this one that you said "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

King, we have to be careful in making absolute statements, because that can lead a person or a group of people to come to a faulty line of reasoning.

How so?

Let me elucidate.

A coach who would challenge your statement is none other than Jim Harbaugh.

The QB who's metrics would factually show you have come to an incorrect conclusion is none other than Alex Smith.

I have the following stats and facts to show that.

Alex Smith was the #1 pick in 2005, and from 2005-2010 Smith's head coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary respectively.

He was technically considered a bust, but guess what happened a few years later?

Jim Harbaugh was hired as the 49ers head coach, and guess what happened to Alex Smith's stats? They improved and the 49ers made the NFC Championship game!

Here are Alex Smith's stats in 2011.

61% 3144 Yards 17 TD 5 Int 90.7 RTG

His completion percentage, yardage, TD to Int ratio, RTG and QBR all improved under the tutelage of Harbaugh.

So King, by these statistics and facts, the coach and system were more important to the QB, than the QB was to the system.

Alex Smith never thrived under Nolan and Singletary, but he blossomed under Harbaugh.

It gets even better, because Alex Smith thrives even more a few years later under the tutelage of guess who? None other than Andy Reid.

You can look up the stats yourself as I have presented them down below.

Please be well and we will talk later

Alex Smith

Harbaugh shipped him away after a year and a half. The 2011 season you referenced Alex Smith averaged 196 yards and a little over a Td a game. I would hardly call that blossoming,the following year in 2012 under Harbaugh he averaged even less at 176 yards a game for the 10 he played. After that year and a half Harbaugh traded him away to make room for kapernick. He played 14 seasons only producing over 4,000 yards one time.

A qb averaging 2,546 yards a season and 14 Tds is below average.

Bricillo provides some sort of hope, but at this point, the OL situation defies logic. Multiple schemes, coaches, coordinators, play callers & GMs. Even with a great LT they are still scary bad. That almost doesn't make sense. Part of me thinks we sold our souls for those Super Bowls.

In any event, I'll play it straight and say Neal and Schmitz are the swing states. You can go from bad to good quickly in the NFL. If those 2 guys live up to their draft status, the Giants will have an excellent OL.

Thomas
Runyan
Schmitz
Eleumunor
Neal

Those are all Schoen's guys. This is on him now.

Quote from: kingm56 on April 22, 2024, 10:45:12 AMJoe, I get your perspective, my friend.  However, I actually like our talent a little better than 2022; I think defensively we've made some gains.  I do get your trepidation though, Joe.  With a few lucky breaks/draft picks, we could become the 2023 version of Houston

Matt - I swear I have PTSD from the Dallas opening game where Evan Neal looked like he was throwing the game. Never have I seen a team less prepared.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 22, 2024, 08:49:26 PMHarbaugh shipped him away after a year and a half. The 2011 season you referenced Alex Smith averaged 196 yards and a little over a Td a game. I would hardly call that blossoming,the following year in 2012 under Harbaugh he averaged even less at 176 yards a game for the 10 he played. After that year and a half Harbaugh traded him away to make room for kapernick. He played 14 seasons only producing over 4,000 yards one time.

A qb averaging 2,546 yards a season and 14 Tds is below average.

Hi,

Here was the original argument and claim made "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

Alex Smith's prior coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.

During that time, he had a 51 TD to 53 Int ratio which is atrocious, and a 67.28 RTG.

When Jim Harbaugh came on Alex Smith's TD to Int rate jumped over a two-year period to 30 TD to 10 Int, a 2 to 1 ratio, and a 97.4 RTG.

Then in the latter part of my original statement I referenced the coaching of Andy Reid on Alex Smith for five years and gave the link for his stats for everyone to look at which would also include yourself.

Cherry picking certain stats to fit a narrative is a logical fallacy which you have done. So, in order to get the correct and honest answers we need to look at all the data.

Here are Alex Smith's stats under the five years of Andy Reid without cherry picking them, they are:

Years 2013 - 2017
17,606 Yards
65.16%
102 TD / 33 Int
94.76 RTG

So here is my question for you and I would like you to answer it honestly.

Did the coaching of Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid make Alex Smith a better QB compared to the coaching of Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

 

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 10:53:09 PMHi,

Here was the original argument and claim made "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

Alex Smith's prior coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.

During that time, he had a 51 TD to 53 Int ratio which is atrocious, and a 67.28 RTG.

When Jim Harbaugh came on Alex Smith's TD to Int rate jumped over a two-year period to 30 TD to 10 Int, a 2 to 1 ratio, and a 97.4 RTG.

Then in the latter part of my original statement I referenced the coaching of Andy Reid on Alex Smith for five years and gave the link for his stats for everyone to look at which would also include yourself.

Cherry picking certain stats to fit a narrative is a logical fallacy which you have done. So, in order to get the correct and honest answers we need to look at all the data.

Here are Alex Smith's stats under the five years of Andy Reid without cherry picking them, they are:

Years 2013 - 2017
17,606 Yards
65.16%
102 TD / 33 Int
94.76 RTG

So here is my question for you and I would like you to answer it honestly.

Did the coaching of Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid make Alex Smith a better QB compared to the coaching of Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

Once again, you find one example to support a preconceived notion, while simultaneously ignoring the preponderance of evidence that suggest the opposite.   I continue to encourage to consider a macro perspective. In this situation you concluded Smith improvement must be a byproduct of coaching. Someone who ask questions from a macro perspective may ask if other possibilities exist, and look for other explanations.

To directly answer your question NO  – Harbaugh and Reid did not fundamentally alter Smith's trajectory.  I suspect this is evident by the fact BOTH coaches essentially fired Smith, which resulted in both teams making the SB the very next season.  If anything, Smith should serve as a warning, not a an example.

You're also viewing Smith stats in a complete vacuum.  As I clearly said above, injuries are the biggest factor in QB output, which is why I provided 17-game averages (min of 8 starts).  Of course Smith aggregate numbers were better post 2011; he only averaged 10 starts per year.  It doesn't take a scholar to conclude a QB that plays 16 games will have better numbers than a QB that plays 10. Smith biggest issue his first 6 years were injuries; he suffered 5 significant injuries during that span, including a back injury that landed him on IR.

You also failed account for the early 2010(s) rules changes, which objectively made playing QB much easier.  QB output dramatically increased after the true elimination/enforcement of DB contact beyond 5-yards, incorporation of defenseless WR rules, multiple rules to protect the QB, and rules to improve overall safety in response to CRT/concussion concerns.  It's a fact that after said rule changes, QBs (on average) throw for more yards, more TDs, and have higher ratings.  I have run a complete analysis on the impact of these changes and have discussed it plenty of times on this board.  I still believe there's a significant faction of fans that fail to grasp how these changes fundamentally changed the game, especially the QB and WR positions. 

In the 6-years prior to the aforementioned rule changes, Eli produced the following yearly averages:

3600 Yards 25 TDs 18 Ints 81 RTG

In the 6-years following the rule changes:
4261 Yards 27 TDs 17 Ints  87 RTG

* I did not include Eli's first 2 years to avoid skewing the data to my favor

Even Payton Manning, a well-established AP QB enjoyed a massive bump in his aggregate numbers following said rule changes:

11 Years Prior to rule change
4217 Yards 30 TDs 15 Ints  95 RTG

3 Years Post rule changes
4954 Yards 43 TDs 12 Ints  107 RTG

*Rookie year omitted to avoid skewing data to my favor
*injured in 2011
*The higher performing years occurred after his injury, and when his physical demise was evident.

Tom Brady, another AP QB greatly benefited from the early 2010 rule changes

9  Years Prior to rule change
3851 Yards 29 TDs 12 Ints  95 RTG

11 Years Post rule changes
4920 Yards 40 TDs 11 Ints  103 RTG

*Rookie year omitted to avoid skewing data to my favor
*Omitted 2008 due to injury
*2021 and 2022 adjusted to 16 vice 17 game average
*The higher performing years occurred when his physical demise was evident.

For the 4th example, consider Drew Brees:

7  Years Prior to rule change
4236 Yards 29 TDs 14 Ints  96 RTG

8 Years Post rule changes
4896 Yards 36 TDs 12 Ints  104 RTG

*1st 3 years omitted to avoid skewing data to my favor
*last 2 years omitted


As I stated above, I spent a lot of time analyzing how these rule changes fundamentally changed the game.  If you conduct a similar analysis, you'll discover virtually every established QB enjoyed tangible improvements from 2011 on, even the greats. 

How do you explain these dramatic jumps? Let me ask you some questions:

1.   Do you believe these well-established PB/AP QBs finally figured it out in the latter halves of the careers?
2.   Do you believe these QBs benefited from the great systems implemented bu Ben Macaddo, Adam Case and Josh McDaniel?
3.   Is it more likely the answers to 1 and 2 are No, and the increases are a byproduct of the aforementioned rule changes?

To further illustrate how these rule changes benefited QBs, and allowed for higher statistical output, consider the following:

9 of the top 12 NFL All-Time passing leaders significant portion of their career from 2011 On

1   Tom Brady      89,214   2000-2022   2TM
2   Drew Brees      80,358   2001-2020   2TM
3   Peyton Manning+   71,940   1998-2015   2TM
5   Ben Roethlisberger   64,088   2004-2021   pit
6   Philip Rivers      63,440   2004-2020   2TM
7   Matt Ryan      62,792   2008-2022   2TM
9   Aaron Rodgers      59,055   2005-2023   2TM
10   Eli Manning      57,023   2004-2019   nyg
11   Matthew Stafford   56,047   2009-2023   2TM

Patrick Mahomes is currently averaging 4737 passing yards per season; if he continues with this average, he will break the top 10 in just 10 full seasons; Goff will enter the top 10 in just 6 more seasons.  Dak Prescott is currently number 57 All-Time with 29,459 yards (just 7 seasons), and will enter the top 10 in just 6 more seasons. 

10 of the top 13 NFL All-Time TD leaders played a significant portion of their career from 2011+

1   Tom Brady   649   2000-2022   2TM
2   Drew Brees   571   2001-2020   2TM
3   Peyton Manning+   539   1998-2015   2TM
5   Aaron Rodgers   475   2005-2023   2TM
6   Philip Rivers   421   2004-2020   2TM
8   Ben Roethlisberger   418   2004-2021   pit
9   Matt Ryan   381   2008-2022   2TM
10   Eli Manning   366   2004-2019   nyg
11   Matthew Stafford   357   2009-2023   2TM
13   Russell Wilson   334   2012-2023   2

12 of the 13 NFL All-time QB Rating Leaders played a significant portion of their careers form 2011+; 10 of 13 are current players

1   Aaron Rodgers   103.6   2005-2023   2TM
2   Patrick Mahomes   103.5   2017-2023   kan
3   Deshaun Watson   100.8   2017-2023   2TM
4   Russell Wilson   100.0   2012-2023   2TM
5   Dak Prescott   99.0   2016-2023   dal
6   Drew Brees   98.7   2001-2020   2TM
7   Joe Burrow   98.6   2020-2023   cin
8   Kirk Cousins   98.2   2012-2023   2TM
9   Lamar Jackson   98.0   2018-2023   rav
10   Jimmy Garoppolo   97.6   2014-2023   3TM
11   Tom Brady   97.2   2000-2022   2TM
12    Tua Tagovailoa   97.1   2020-2023   mi

BL: As stated before, the HC does make a difference; however, it's vastly overstated.  Alex Smith, like virtually every other QB, benefited greatly from monumental rule changes and good health.  It's not a consequence his improvement coincides with said rule changes and a period where he remained injury free in 8 of 9 seasons. You failed to give any consideration to the latter, which was the impetus for his poor start.  Of the hundreds of other QBs, do you have a single example from the last decade to support your notion?  Alex Smith is not a very good example, for the reasons stated above. 


BTW, can you imagine if Manning or Brady played their entire careers post 2011.  Oh my...

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 22, 2024, 10:53:09 PMHi,

Here was the original argument and claim made "Every single metric clearly indicates QBs are more important to the system, than the system is to the QB".

Alex Smith's prior coaches were Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary.

During that time, he had a 51 TD to 53 Int ratio which is atrocious, and a 67.28 RTG.

When Jim Harbaugh came on Alex Smith's TD to Int rate jumped over a two-year period to 30 TD to 10 Int, a 2 to 1 ratio, and a 97.4 RTG.

Then in the latter part of my original statement I referenced the coaching of Andy Reid on Alex Smith for five years and gave the link for his stats for everyone to look at which would also include yourself.

Cherry picking certain stats to fit a narrative is a logical fallacy which you have done. So, in order to get the correct and honest answers we need to look at all the data.

Here are Alex Smith's stats under the five years of Andy Reid without cherry picking them, they are:

Years 2013 - 2017
17,606 Yards
65.16%
102 TD / 33 Int
94.76 RTG

So here is my question for you and I would like you to answer it honestly.

Did the coaching of Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid make Alex Smith a better QB compared to the coaching of Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

 

huh? You cherry picked stats not me i gave you his career averages but No, Alex Smith for the entirety was Alex Smith. He was good for 3100 yards and 15tds in every season that he played a full season. As king pointed out he only played 1 full season under Nolan or Singletary so how do you know it was Harbaugh and not just him being healthy for the 1st time for an entire season. The answer is you don't know. Alex Smith was healthy for his time with the Chiefs so it's pretty to easy to assume he would have duplicated those stats with the 49ers if he had been healthy.