Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on May 03, 2024, 09:07:13 AMTeam fixes OL or gets a dominant WR or both. Incumbent QB's confidence and production (if the QB is truly talented) suddenly goes up and is more consistent. Seen this rodeo play out too many times to assume our QB stinks just yet.

Uncle Mickey,
I absolutely love your posts and appreciate your perspective...you have added a lot of value to this board; however, in this situation, I fundamentally disagree with you.  We have discussed this premise ad nauseam over the last 2 years; when said subject arises, I ask posters to cite just three veteran QBs over the last 3 decades that significantly improved with an elite QB and/or OL.   For DJs situation, in the last 40 years, I cannot think of a single example of a player who played 60+ games that meets your description.  There are examples of very young QBs who benefited from elite WR/OL play, but we should avoid viewing those improvements in a vacuum. For example, on average, QBs make significant leaps between their 2d and 3d seasons; thus, how much of Josh Allen's improvement was due to Diggs vice the organic evolution of a young QB? I am not going to pretend Diggs did not help, but he was hardly the sole reason for Allen's improvement.  In addition, I bet Allen will continue to be good without Diggs, which reinforces the notion he had the goods to begin with, so to speak.   

The only viable examples cited over the last few years are Alex Smith and Geno Smith; however, the former was 'fired' twice after said 'improvement', which begs the question how much did he really improve? Plus, Smith emergence was more about finally staying healthy than being paired with an elite WR.  As @Jess highlighted in a different thread, his per game average was consistent after his second season.  Geno Smith enjoyed just 23 starts before being replaced; from his 25th start on, his per game averages were consistent, including his one start with our Giants.

Talking Heads yap about this premise all the time; however, the data simply doesn't support this notion for vetern QBs.  I'm not saying an Elite OL/WR won't help, but will it fundamentally alter the QBs trajectory (i.e. make them into a championship QB)?  Am I missing a veteran QB who evolved into the player you described? 

Quote from: kingm56 on May 03, 2024, 11:31:08 AMI fundamentally disagree with you.  We have discussed this premise ad nauseam over the last 2 years; when said subject arises, I ask posters to cite just three veteran QBs over the last 3 decades that significantly improved with an elite QB and/or OL.   For DJs situation, in the last 40 years, I cannot think of a single example of a player who played 60+ games that meets your description. 

Quarterbacks who have been either dumped by their team (and thrived elsewhere, which assumes better support) or just got a lot better

Geno Smith
Baker Mayfield
Kerry Collins
Rich Gannon
Matt Schaub
Jimmy Garoppolo
Doug Flutie

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 03, 2024, 11:51:48 AMQuarterbacks who have been either dumped by their team (and thrived elsewhere, which assumes better support) or just got a lot better

What does this have to do with premise discussed?  To my knowledge, nobody is arguing against the possibility of QB with limited starts getting better.  QBs with less than 30 starts can, and do, improve; however, QBs with more than ~30 Starts do not, certainly not 60 starts. Isn't that obvious by now?

Geno Smith – Prior to 2021, he had just 29 starts.

Baker Mayfield  - His best year was actually his rookie year; so, how does this fit the narrative? The answer is it does not.  The only thing consistent about Mayfield is his inconsistency.  He had three good years, and two bad years. His contract (only $28M guarantee) is a reflection of that reality. 

Kerry Collins - Kerry Collins was a pro bowler by his second season. He struggled because of alcoholism, which is well documented. Again, this has nothing to do with magically becoming better because of an elite WR and/or OL. 

Rich Gannon – The single true example, which I have acknowledged multiple times; still, it's one example in 40 years of football.

Matt Schaub - Schaub did not play his first three seasons and was not afforded an opportunity until 2007, his per game average from that point was fairly consistent.

Jimmy G - Spent his first 3 seasons as a backup, and only completed 2 of 10 seasons without being injured.  He was never going to start over Tom Brady. Once again, his per game averages were fairly consistent from season 3 on, once he got a chance to start.  He is also a backup again.  So, how exactly is he thriving, or had his career fundamentally altered?  He started as a backup and is a backup...

Doug Flutie – Was a backup for his first 6 years before getting frustrated and moving to USFL; when he returned, he only started for 3 of 8 seasons.  I do not view this as thriving or suddenly becoming consistent.

Given the limited and frankly weak examples, which spans 40-years, perhaps it is time to evaluate the narrative that veteran QBs magically become better with coaching, OL or Elite WRs? Are we really going to argue that any of these QBs had their careers fundamentally altered and become top-tier/championship caliber QBs?   

Quote from: kingm56 on May 03, 2024, 11:31:08 AMUncle Mickey,
I absolutely love your posts and appreciate your perspective...you have added a lot of value to this board; however, in this situation, I fundamentally disagree with you.  We have discussed this premise ad nauseam over the last 2 years; when said subject arises, I ask posters to cite just three veteran QBs over the last 3 decades that significantly improved with an elite QB and/or OL.   For DJs situation, in the last 40 years, I cannot think of a single example of a player who played 60+ games that meets your description.  There are examples of very young QBs who benefited from elite WR/OL play, but we should avoid viewing those improvements in a vacuum. For example, on average, QBs make significant leaps between their 2d and 3d seasons; thus, how much of Josh Allen's improvement was due to Diggs vice the organic evolution of a young QB? I am not going to pretend Diggs did not help, but he was hardly the sole reason for Allen's improvement.  In addition, I bet Allen will continue to be good without Diggs, which reinforces the notion he had the goods to begin with, so to speak.   

The only viable examples cited over the last few years are Alex Smith and Geno Smith; however, the former was 'fired' twice after said 'improvement', which begs the question how much did he really improve? Plus, Smith emergence was more about finally staying healthy than being paired with an elite WR.  As @Jess highlighted in a different thread, his per game average was consistent after his second season.  Geno Smith enjoyed just 23 starts before being replaced; from his 25th start on, his per game averages were consistent, including his one start with our Giants.

Talking Heads yap about this premise all the time; however, the data simply doesn't support this notion for vetern QBs.  I'm not saying an Elite OL/WR won't help, but will it fundamentally alter the QBs trajectory (i.e. make them into a championship QB)?  Am I missing a veteran QB who evolved into the player you described? 

Thanks King! I appreciate all the varying opinions here on the matter. As long as folks make arguments that have some level of substantiation to it, I'm cool with it.


The way I see it is no two QB situations are exactly alike. And the level of ineptitude that DJ has had at OL coaching, OL talent and the WR talent is pretty much unprecedented in my 40 some odd years watching Giant football. With that said, I can draw at least a bit of correlation when I see a cat like Tua or Josh Allen or Geno or when you see a guy like Baker Mayfield get some OL protection and go from not really having a top WR1 to having one and all of a sudden they go from kinda mediocre to franchise looking QBs. Its not a perfect analogy mind you, but there is enough similarity (at least in my perspective) to where I have hope for DJ in a better situation. It's not like none of us have never seen flashes of brilliance from him. Everyone of us has. The kid has thrown some absolute laser throws that crossed the 'i's and that dotted the 't's!

 I just don't think that's an unfair assessment for some to have even though it's taken this 'abnormally' long time to improve the offense around him.

Lastly confidence is a very interesting thing when it comes to a QB. Let's see what a significantly better coached OL combined with a hopefully no doubter elite WR1 in Nabers , a 2nd year Hyatt, a 3rd year Wan'Dale do for DJ.

I think we all can at least agree the support system has a chance to be significantly better in numerous areas for DJ this year.

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on May 03, 2024, 01:29:53 PMThanks King! I appreciate all the varying opinions here on the matter. As long as folks make arguments that have some level of substantiation to it, I'm cool with it.


The way I see it is no two QB situations are exactly alike. And the level of ineptitude that DJ has had at OL coaching, OL talent and the WR talent is pretty much unprecedented in my 40 some odd years watching Giant football. With that said, I can draw at least a bit of correlation when I see a cat like Tua or Josh Allen or Geno or when you see a guy like Baker Mayfield get some OL protection and go from not really having a top WR1 to having one and all of a sudden they go from kinda mediocre to franchise looking QBs. Its not a perfect analogy mind you, but there is enough similarity (at least in my perspective) to where I have hope for DJ in a better situation. It's not like none of us have never seen flashes of brilliance from him. Everyone of us has. The kid has thrown some absolute laser throws that crossed the 'i's and that dotted the 't's!

 I just don't think that's an unfair assessment for some to have even though it's taken this 'abnormally' long time to improve the offense around him.

Lastly confidence is a very interesting thing when it comes to a QB. Let's see what a significantly better coached OL combined with a hopefully no doubter elite WR1 in Nabers , a 2nd year Hyatt, a 3rd year Wan'Dale do for DJ.

I think we all can at least agree the support system has a chance to be significantly better in numerous areas for DJ this year.

Call me Matt, my friend.  I think we disagree on flashes of brilliance.  DJ hasn't flashed any more brilliance than Mitch Trubisky or other QBs of their ilk. I have maintained for 3+ years that DJ, like virtually all NFL starters, will benefit from improved supporting talent. However, in 60 games, I have yet to witness any element of his game that gives me any confidence he's a championship-caliber QB. IMO, it's very obvious that he is what he is, and has always been.

Again, I really appreciate your post.  Just because we don't agree on this one subject, I look forward to engaging with you on areas we agree.

Quote from: kingm56 on May 03, 2024, 01:50:18 PMCall me Matt, my friend.  I think we disagree on flashes of brilliance.  DJ hasn't flashed any more brilliance than Mitch Trubisky or other QBs of their ilk. I have maintained for 3+ years that DJ, like virtually all NFL starters, will benefit from improved supporting talent. However, in 60 games, I have yet to witness any element of his game that gives me any confidence he's a championship-caliber QB. IMO, it's very obvious that he is what he is, and has always been.

Again, I really appreciate your post.  Just because we don't agree on this one subject, I look forward to engaging with you on areas we agree.

Thanks Matt, I see some really really pretty balls come off of that arm. Throws with zip, throws on the run , in tight windows etc. Is he perfect? Absolutley not! But he is absolutely capable of making high level NFL QB plays with his arm and his legs. I truly think it's there. The hope is the consistency part increases with WRs who beat their defenders more consistently and a properly coached OL that more consistently protects than be a free for all turnstile right to the QB.

I think we DO agree that the support system around him has a strong chance to be significantly better. If we are in agreement there then we probably can both agree this year will be a 'cementer' either way. Either DJ balls out or he continues his inconsistency and the 'excuse' of no-talent or proper support around him is gone.

Quote from: kingm56 on May 03, 2024, 01:50:18 PMDJ hasn't flashed any more brilliance than Mitch Trubisky or other QBs of their ilk.

Just last year Jones accomplished something no QB in the NFL's 100+ year history ever accomplished (against the Cards)


Jones became the first quarterback ever to throw for 250 yards, rush for 50 yards, throw multiple touchdown passes, rush for a touchdown and not commit a turnover in the second half of a game.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 03, 2024, 02:08:24 PMJust last year Jones accomplished something no QB in the NFL's 100+ year history ever accomplished (against the Cards)


Jones became the first quarterback ever to throw for 250 yards, rush for 50 yards, throw multiple touchdown passes, rush for a touchdown and not commit a turnover in the second half of a game.

Here were a few more flashes


Jones was the first rookie quarterback in NFL history with 2 games of 300+ passing yards and 4+ touchdown passes – and he had 3 of them.


Jones' 24 touchdown passes led all rookie quarterbacks in 2019 and were the 4th-most by a rookie in a single season in NFL history...Only Baker Mayfield (27 in 2018), Peyton Manning (26 in 1998) and Russell Wilson (26 in 2012) had more.

Jones was the 5th rookie in NFL history to throw 5 touchdown passes in a game...The others were Detroit's Matthew Stafford vs. Cleveland on Nov. 22, 2009; Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston at Philadelphia on Nov. 22, 2015; and Houston's Deshaun Watson vs. Kansas City on Oct. 8, 2017 and Ray Buivid, who played for the Chicago Bears in 1937-38...On Dec. 5, 1937, he threw 5 touchdown passes in the season finale in Wrigley Field vs. the Chicago Cardinals.

Jones joined Dallas' Dak Prescott (twice in 2016) as the only rookie quarterbacks in NFL history with 2 games of at least 300 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes and zero interceptions...The game in Washington was Jones' 3rd with at least 4 touchdown passes...The only other rookies in NFL history to do that were Watson and Pro Football Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton in 1961.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 03, 2024, 02:31:17 PMHere were a few more flashes


Jones was the first rookie quarterback in NFL history with 2 games of 300+ passing yards and 4+ touchdown passes – and he had 3 of them.


Jones' 24 touchdown passes led all rookie quarterbacks in 2019 and were the 4th-most by a rookie in a single season in NFL history...Only Baker Mayfield (27 in 2018), Peyton Manning (26 in 1998) and Russell Wilson (26 in 2012) had more.

Jones was the 5th rookie in NFL history to throw 5 touchdown passes in a game...The others were Detroit's Matthew Stafford vs. Cleveland on Nov. 22, 2009; Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston at Philadelphia on Nov. 22, 2015; and Houston's Deshaun Watson vs. Kansas City on Oct. 8, 2017 and Ray Buivid, who played for the Chicago Bears in 1937-38...On Dec. 5, 1937, he threw 5 touchdown passes in the season finale in Wrigley Field vs. the Chicago Cardinals.

Jones joined Dallas' Dak Prescott (twice in 2016) as the only rookie quarterbacks in NFL history with 2 games of at least 300 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes and zero interceptions...The game in Washington was Jones' 3rd with at least 4 touchdown passes...The only other rookies in NFL history to do that were Watson and Pro Football Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton in 1961.

Passing attempts:
1,872
Passing completions:
1,200
Completion percentage:
64.1%
TD–INT:
72–48
Passing yards:
12,536
Passer rating:
85.5

Career history

* Pro Bowl (2018)
* Third-team All-ACC (2016)

DANIEL JONES
Passing attempts:
1,900
Passing completions:
1,221
Completion percentage:
64.3%
TD–INT:
62–40
Passing yards:
12,512
Passer rating:
85.2
Rushing yards:
1,914
Rushing touchdowns:
13

Career history
* New York Giants (2019–present)
Roster status:
Active


Almost identical numbers, except Mitch has a pro bowl to his name and some college accolades.  DJ has Active player.

I'm not saying Mitch is better, but he had equal 'flashes.' Again, they are no tangible examples in 25 years, and only 1 in 40 years that support your supposition. Why do you think there are Limited, to no tangible examples?

 I do appreciate the time supporting your positions.

Quote from: kingm56 on May 03, 2024, 03:31:40 PMPassing attempts:
1,872
Passing completions:
1,200
Completion percentage:
64.1%
TD–INT:
72–48
Passing yards:
12,536
Passer rating:
85.5

Career history

* Pro Bowl (2018)
* Third-team All-ACC (2016)

DANIEL JONES
Passing attempts:
1,900
Passing completions:
1,221
Completion percentage:
64.3%
TD–INT:
62–40
Passing yards:
12,512
Passer rating:
85.2
Rushing yards:
1,914
Rushing touchdowns:
13

Career history
* New York Giants (2019–present)
Roster status:
Active


Almost identical numbers, except Mitch has a pro bowl to his name and some college accolades.  DJ has Active player.

I'm not saying Mitch is better, but he had equal 'flashes.' Again, they are no tangible examples in 25 years, and only 1 in 40 years that support your supposition. Why do you think there are Limited, to no tangible examples?

 I do appreciate the time supporting your positions.

Matt,

You are conflating season stats with what @Uncle Mickey called "flashes of brilliance."

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 03, 2024, 03:33:08 PMMatt,

You are conflating season stats with what @Uncle Mickey called "flashes of brilliance."

You highlighted DJs 'brilliance', while simultaneously discounting Mitch T own brilliance. The latter was an NFC player on the week and pro bowler in 2018. That's the point; a lot of NFL starters flash brilliance, which is why they're 1 of 32 people in the world to do it. 

Is it really a flash of brilliance if Baker Mayfield, Dak and Jameis Winston are also listed?

Quote from: kingm56 on May 03, 2024, 03:45:01 PMYou highlighted DJs 'brilliance', while simultaneously discounting Mitch T own brilliance. The latter was an NFC player on the week and pro bowler in 2018. That's the point; a lot of NFL starters flash brilliance, which is why they're 1 of 32 people in the world to do it. 

I listed actual historic accomplishments by DJ.  Most reasonable people would consider a historic accomplishment (against a league with a 100+ year history) as "flashes of brilliance".  In what way did what you just say negate the point I made?

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 03, 2024, 05:24:30 PMI listed actual historic accomplishments by DJ.  Most reasonable people would consider a historic accomplishment (against a league with a 100+ year history) as "flashes of brilliance".  In what way did what you just say negate the point I made?

All of those accomplishments you listed happened as a rookie besides the coming back against a horrible Arizona team. Most of the people he was listed with outside Peyton and Russell haven't exactly taken the league by storm.

Kinda like the "how it started, how it's going" meme.

As a Rookie he also has the 3rd most turnovers for a rookie in NFL history with 5 less than Deshon Kizer and 2 less than Geno Smith.

People forget that there was a reason his (stupid) nickname was Danny Dimes after his rookie year.