Big Blue Huddle

From

Mike Clay's 2024 NFL Projection Guide

https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/24/NFLDK2024_CS_ClayProjections2024.pdf

There are no limits to such a nonsensical exercise which the author knows will be disregarded and forgotten almost immediately by even the most gullible among us.

Cheers!

Quote from: Painter on June 17, 2024, 10:07:05 AMThere are no limits to such a nonsensical exercise which the author knows will be disregarded and forgotten almost immediately by even the most gullible among us.

Cheers!

Mike Clay, ESPN Senior Writer
Mar 26, 2024, 12:30 PM ET
Share
LikeLike
Open Extended Reactions
LikeFireWow
229
If you're not already aware, I'm the human who creates the fantasy football player projections at ESPN.

Although some would swear the projection numbers are totally automated or randomly generated, I assure you they are not. I have a lengthy process that involves a mixture of statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is where this piece truly comes in handy. To begin each NFL season, I go team by team and thoroughly analyze historical league, team, coach and player trends. From there, on the player level, I generate projected dropback, carry and target shares for each player.

I recently completed that process and -- same as in recent years -- took notes. Below are my observations, as well as a brief application to fantasy football in 2024.

Be sure to also check out our sortable player projection page, as well as my detailed 2024 NFL Projection PDF Guide, which is routinely updated throughout the offseason.

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/39813723/2024-fantasy-football-projections-draft-trends-carry-target-shares

Is that meant as a rebuttal to what I suggested above?  But then, I suppose I should have used the word fantasy rather than nonsensical 

Cheers!

Quote from: Painter on June 17, 2024, 10:38:33 AMIs that meant as a rebuttal to what I suggested above?  But then, I suppose I should have used the word fantasy rather than nonsensical 

Cheers!

Larry - to keep calling every prediction or projection somebody makes nonsensical is tiring to see with each of your posts.  We know they are meaningless.  It does not mean we don't enjoy reading them or making them.

the projected 4.7 wins is ridiculous  that would cause a complete re-build

the rest looks clean. except for Thibs

Quote from: Painter on June 17, 2024, 10:38:33 AMIs that meant as a rebuttal to what I suggested above?  But then, I suppose I should have used the word fantasy rather than nonsensical 

Cheers!

Larry,

If we and the Giants are lucky, there will be no new news between now and the start of training camp (since news this time of year usually involves a player getting hurt or in trouble).  Are your standards and expectations calibrated to this fact?

We get it; as Joe @Philosophers said, we all know that projections and predictions are not facts or even have a strong likelihood of coming true.   That doesn't mean some people might not find it worth talking about during the dead period

Quote from: MightyGiants on June 17, 2024, 11:12:02 AMLarry,

If we and the Giants are lucky, there will be no new news between now and the start of training camp (since news this time of year usually involves a player getting hurt or in trouble).  Are your standards and expectations calibrated to this fact?

We get it; as Joe @Philosophers said, we all know that projections and predictions are not facts or even have a strong likelihood of coming true.   That doesn't mean some people might not find it worth talking about during the dead period

I don't know about you guys but I haven't ben this excited about a Giants season/quad since Pasadena.   The roster is exciting, has enormous upside

My thoughts about the disappointing Barkley are well documented.  Thats a huge weight off the offense and play calling.  I assuming this new guy can block.  The WRs are off the chart.   The defense has plenty of teeth

Also Daboll might finally truly show his worth if he really does takeover play calling.  I think he is a more wide-open type guy.

9-11 wins whichever QB plays- Jones, Drew, or Tommy.

Quote from: BluesCruz on June 17, 2024, 11:05:16 AMthe projected 4.7 wins is ridiculous  that would cause a complete re-build

the rest looks clean. except for Thibs

Have you been watching this team? 4-6 wins has been our threshold the better part of a decade.

Quote from: Philosophers on June 17, 2024, 10:52:14 AMLarry - to keep calling every prediction or projection somebody makes nonsensical is tiring to see with each of your posts.  We know they are meaningless.  It does not mean we don't enjoy reading them or making them.

Don't think I don't know that, Joseph. But also, don't think it will make me any less likely to mock it.

Cheers!

Let's hope for Jones' (and the team's) sake these projections don't come close to being accurate. If they do, not only will he be cut in the offseason, but he will likely have a tough time being a starter for anyone else anytime soon.

Actually they have DJ projected to only play in 14 games.

However if you project that out over a 17 game season, he would then throw for over 4,000 yards.

Which would be positive.

However the TDs are way too low.

My criticism was not about folks here guessing/predicting a Giants final W/L record based on current impressions as that is pretty much SOP. It was directed exclusively at the egoistic nonsense that is ESPN's detail-specific, almost granular, season stats projections.

Cheers!

Quote from: sxdxca38 on June 18, 2024, 04:54:17 AMActually they have DJ projected to only play in 14 games.

However if you project that out over a 17 game season, he would then throw for over 4,000 yards.

Which would be positive.

However the TDs are way too low.

3259 / 14 = 232 * 17 = 3,957.

If he achieved this output, it would be on par with Sam Howells' 3,946 passing yards; It may be a positive, but not a significant one IMO. 

As you eluded to, I'm not completely concerned with the passing yards...I am far more concerned with DJs aggregate TDs. He, and the Giants, simply need to produce more points!

Consider his last four years, DJs 17 game TD average (including rushing TDs) has been abysmal:

14
15
23
8

Even his best year, yielded him 12 fewer TDs than Hurts and 16 fewer than Dak  last year.  It frustrating to understand how far off the pace we are from our divisional rivals. In short, DJ needs to produce more TDs for the Giants to be remotely competitive. 

Quote from: kingm56 on June 18, 2024, 02:53:30 PM3259 / 14 = 232 * 17 = 3,957.

If he achieved this output, it would be on par with Sam Howells' 3,946 passing yards; It may be a positive, but not a significant one IMO. 

As you eluded to, I'm not completely concerned with the passing yards...I am far more concerned with DJs aggregate TDs. He, and the Giants, simply need to produce more points!

Consider his last four years, DJs 17 game TD average (including rushing TDs) has been abysmal:

14
15
23
8

Even his best year, yielded him 12 fewer TDs than Hurts and 16 fewer than Dak  last year.  It frustrating to understand how far off the pace we are from our divisional rivals. In short, DJ needs to produce more TDs for the Giants to be remotely competitive. 

I agree with you but I also like yards as well because it shows you are moving the ball which should produce more chances to score.